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工业硅:区间震荡格局;多晶硅:关注市场情绪面提振
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-03-17 01:40
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Report Core View - The industrial silicon market is in a range - bound pattern, and the polysilicon market should focus on the boost of market sentiment [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: For industrial silicon Si2605, the closing price is 8,685 yuan/ton with a change of -165 compared to T - 22, the trading volume is 104,089 lots with a decrease of 104,137 compared to T - 22, and the open interest is 236,662 lots with a decrease of 4,354 compared to T - 22. For polysilicon PS2605, the closing price is 41,705 yuan/ton with a change of -995 compared to T - 5, the trading volume is 5,856 lots with a decrease of 13,413 compared to T - 5, and the open interest is 34,647 lots with a decrease of 563 compared to T - 5 [2] - **Basis**: Industrial silicon's spot premium or discount varies according to different benchmarks. The polysilicon spot premium (against N - type recycled material) is +2795 yuan/ton [2] - **Price**: The price of Xinjiang 99 - grade silicon is 8,600 yuan/ton with a decrease of 100 compared to T - 22, Yunnan Si4210 is 9,900 yuan/ton with a decrease of 100 compared to T - 22, and polysilicon N - type recycled material is 46,000 yuan/ton with a decrease of 7,500 compared to T - 22 [2] - **Profit**: The profit of silicon plants in Xinjiang (new standard 553) is -2446.5 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan (new standard 553) is -5314 yuan/ton. The profit of polysilicon enterprises is 1.7 yuan/kg [2] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of industrial silicon (including warehouse - receipt inventory) is 55.2 million tons with a decrease of 1 million compared to T - 22, the enterprise inventory is 19.7 million tons with a decrease of 1.2 million compared to T - 22, and the industry inventory is 74.9 million tons with a decrease of 2.19 million compared to T - 22. The polysilicon manufacturer inventory is 35.7 million tons with an increase of 1.6 million compared to T - 22 [2] - **Raw Material Cost**: The prices of raw materials such as silicon ore, washed coking coal, petroleum coke, electrodes in different regions have different changes or remain stable. For example, the price of Xinjiang silicon ore is 320 yuan/ton and remains unchanged compared to T - 22 [2] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Swift Solar in California has acquired the core manufacturing assets and heterojunction (HJT) patent portfolio of Swiss company Meyer Burger. The acquisition aims to build a vertical integration technology path for silicon - perovskite tandem cells and break through the theoretical efficiency limit of about 30% of traditional crystalline silicon cells [2][4] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, and that of polysilicon is also 0, both indicating a neutral view [4]