科创城投债

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2025年5月城投债市场运行分析:发行规模腰斩、净融资持续为负,经开区改革鼓励园区城投上市融资
Zhong Cheng Xin Guo Ji· 2025-06-16 08:42
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In May, the issuance scale of urban investment bonds was halved, and the net financing continued to be negative. The issuance of innovative varieties such as science - and - technology bonds increased. The reform of economic development zones encourages park urban investment companies to list for financing [6][9][17]. - The yield of urban investment bonds may be more likely to decline. The safety cushion of urban investment bonds is still sufficient, and the credit spread still has room to compress. Investment strategies include allocating high - quality enterprises in strong regions, paying attention to urban investment companies in key provinces with debt resolution benefits, and weak - qualified urban investment companies in strong regions. Also, focus on new bond - issuing entities in the industrial transformation and integration of urban investment [6][7][45]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 5 - month Urban Investment Bond Market Operation Characteristics - **Financing and issuance scale**: Affected by tightened financing policies and seasonal factors, the issuance scale of urban investment bonds decreased by 52.44% month - on - month to 26.3616 billion yuan, and the net financing was - 7.127 billion yuan, remaining negative for three consecutive months. The issuance scale from January to May was 2.3 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 13.22%. 21 provinces had net outflows, and the net outflow scale of key provinces and large economic provinces decreased month - on - month [9][11]. - **Review and approval**: The review and approval pass rate of urban investment bonds on the exchange decreased by 7.45 percentage points to 88.01% month - on - month, with 7 bonds terminated for review, mainly issued by AA - level and below entities. The registration pass rate of the National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors increased by 5.97 percentage points to 11% month - on - month [10][11]. - **Innovative varieties**: The issuance of science - and - technology bonds accelerated. In May, 14 labeled urban investment bonds were issued, with a total scale of 1.2 billion yuan. Among them, 9 science - and - technology bonds had a scale of 870 million yuan. Labeled urban investment bonds had a certain cost advantage [17]. - **Issuance term and borrowing - to - repay ratio**: The weighted average issuance term was 4.18 years, an increase of 0.18 years month - on - month. The borrowing - to - repay ratio was 93.24%, and 14 provinces reached 100%. Only Chongqing among the 8 key provinces issued new - type urban investment bonds [20]. - **Issuance interest rate and spread**: The weighted average issuance interest rate was 2.30%, a decrease of 0.13 percentage points month - on - month, and the spread was 77.49BP, a narrowing of 14.44BP month - on - month. The issuance cost in key provinces was higher and the decline was smaller [23]. - **Overseas bonds**: The issuance scale of overseas urban investment bonds decreased by 70.33% month - on - month to 1.2218 billion yuan, and the weighted average issuance interest rate increased by 0.31BP to 5.88% [29]. - **Yield and credit spread**: The spot trading scale of urban investment bonds decreased year - on - year and month - on - month. The yield of urban investment bonds decreased overall, and the credit spreads of most key provinces narrowed [32]. 3.2 Credit Analysis - **Rating adjustment**: On May 19, 2025, Shanghai Brilliance Credit Rating & Investors Service Co., Ltd. upgraded the bond ratings of "G23 Nanhu 1" and "23 Nanhu Green Bond 01" of Jiaxing Nanhu Urban Construction Investment Group Co., Ltd. from AA+ to AAA, with a stable outlook [7]. - **Abnormal transactions**: 46 bonds of 39 urban investment entities had 70 abnormal transactions, with a scale of 252 million yuan. The scale and number of abnormal transactions decreased month - on - month [7]. 3.3 Early Redemption and Maturity Putback - In May, 62 urban investment companies early - redeemed the principal and interest of 73 bonds, with a scale of 1.3396 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 46.34%. The maturity and putback scale of urban investment bonds in the second half of the year is 2.8 trillion yuan [7]. 3.4 Investment Strategy - Allocate high - quality enterprises in strong regions based on fundamentals and moderately extend the duration. For medium - and short - term duration allocation, focus on strong urban investment companies in key provinces with debt resolution benefits and weak - qualified urban investment companies in strong regions. Also, pay attention to new bond - issuing entities in the industrial transformation and integration of urban investment, especially those with labeled bonds such as science - and - technology and green bonds [6][45]. 3.5 Recent Policies and Hot Events - **Central policies**: In May, the central government introduced policies beneficial to the transformation and development of urban investment enterprises, including supporting the issuance of science - and - technology bonds, promoting urban renewal, reforming national economic development zones, and improving the modern enterprise system with Chinese characteristics [6][48]. - **Local policies**: Jilin proposed to accelerate the "withdrawal from the province", Xinjiang set a goal to clear financing platforms in 2025, Jiangsu supervised the replacement of implicit debts with special bonds, and Zhejiang issued special bonds for purchasing existing commercial housing [6].