2025 年 8 月 25 日 行业研究 供改文件正式落地，稀土上行动力仍存 ——稀土行业跟踪报告之四 要点 事件： 2025 年 8 月 22 日，工信部发布《稀土开采和稀土冶炼分离总量调控管 理暂行办法》（下文简称《管理暂行办法》）。而在 2025 年 2 月 19 日，工信 部曾发布《稀土开采和稀土冶炼分离总量调控管理暂行办法（暂行）（公开征求 意见稿）》（下文简称《征求意见稿》）。 两版暂行办法重要区别 1：稀土年度配额不再对社会公开。根据《征求意见稿》， 工业和信息化部会同有关部门确定稀土开采企业和稀土冶炼分离企业，并向社会 公布；而在《管理暂行办法》中，则不再有"向社会公布"的字眼，具体表述为 "并通报有关省级人民政府工业和信息化、自然资源主管部门。" 配额市场预期收紧。根据包钢股份 2024 年年报，2025 年全年预计包钢稀土精 矿产量增加 3.4%，叠加 2025 年 4 月初我国对中重稀土实施出口管制、我国另 一指标控制金属——钨的第一批配额同比去年下降 6.45%等因素，我们倾向于认 为今年稀土配额端的增量有限。 两版暂行办法重要区别 2：对稀土开采冶炼的定义和适用范围拓宽。《征求意见 ...

| 股票代码：600010 | 股票简称：包钢股份 | 编号：（临）2025-059 | | --- | --- | --- | | 债券代码：175793 | 债券简称：GC钢联01 | | | 主要产品 | 生产量（吨） | 销售量（吨） | 平均售价（不含税） （元/吨） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 稀土精矿（干量，REO=50%） | 211,117.00 | 204,949.55 | 18,716.47 | | 萤石 | 393,834.00 | 395,467.72 | 1,469.86 | 该经营数据未经审计，请投资者注意投资风险，谨慎使用。 特此公告。 内蒙古包钢钢联股份有限公司董事会 根据上海证券交易所《上市公司行业信息披露指引第七号——钢 铁》第二十二条的相关规定，公司现将 2025 年上半年主要经营数据 公告如下： | 主要产品 | 生产量（吨） | 销售量（吨） | 平均售价（不含税） （元/吨） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 管材 | 871,264.00 | 867,280.06 | 3,937.00 | | 板材 | ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that Baosteel Co., Ltd. (包钢股份) experienced a significant stock price increase of 9.93%, closing at 2.99 yuan on August 25, 2025, with a trading volume of 21.22 million hands and a transaction amount of 6.196 billion yuan [1] - The company operates in the steel industry, focusing on mineral resource development and the production and sales of steel products, with key resources including the Baiyun Obo mine and a product range that includes rare earth concentrates and steel products [1] - Recent regulatory changes, specifically the interim measures for the total quantity control management of rare earth mining and separation released by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments, are expected to impact the rare earth industry [1] Group 2 - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has provided support to the non-ferrous metal sector, which includes companies like Baosteel [1] - On August 25, Baosteel saw a net inflow of 1.9 billion yuan in main funds, accounting for 2.03% of its circulating market value, with a cumulative net inflow of 2.397 billion yuan over the past five trading days, representing 2.56% of its circulating market value [1]

Industry Overview - The rare earth magnetic materials industry experienced a 6.96% increase last week, outperforming the benchmark (CSI 300) by 5.73 percentage points [4] - The industry valuation (TTM P/E ratio) rose to 90.57x, currently at 95.7% of its historical percentile [4] Price Trends - Last week, rare earth concentrate prices generally declined, with praseodymium-neodymium prices dropping and dysprosium and terbium oxide averages being adjusted downwards [5] - Domestic mixed rare earth carbonate, Sichuan fluorocarbon cerium ore, and Shandong fluorocarbon cerium ore prices fell by 2.94%, 3.33%, and 4% respectively [5] - The average price of praseodymium-neodymium oxide decreased by 1.88%, while the metal price fell by 0.47% [5] - Dysprosium oxide prices decreased by 1.52%, and terbium oxide prices fell by 1.26% [5] - The price of sintered neodymium-iron-boron (N35) dropped by 0.77%, and H35 decreased by 0.51% due to insufficient cost support [5] Investment Insights - In the rare earth sector, praseodymium-neodymium product supply remains tight in the short term, with a decrease in imported ore quantities and a decline in production in July [7] - Demand for neodymium-iron-boron from major manufacturers remains stable, with new orders being acceptable and inventory levels low [7] - Despite a short-term decline in raw material prices, the market sentiment is not overly pessimistic, indicating limited downside potential for prices [7] - The demand from the downstream electric vehicle sector is expected to slow, while the wind power installation shows potential for release [7] - The overall industry capacity is excessive, with low operating rates, leading to a favorable position for leading companies [7] Valuation and Performance - Recent rapid price increases in the industry have pushed valuations to high levels, with the need for sustained performance improvements to support these valuations [7] - The upward trend in rare earth magnetic material prices and industry profitability is highly dependent on supply-demand improvements and policy expectations [7] Recommendations - Maintain an "overweight" rating for the industry, focusing on upstream rare earth resource companies that may benefit from tightening supply expectations and potential demand increases due to relaxed export controls [8] - From a medium to long-term perspective, as rare earth prices gradually recover, downstream magnetic material companies are expected to see continued profit recovery [8] - Attention is recommended for companies with strong customer structures, full capacity utilization, and new growth opportunities, such as Jinli Permanent Magnet [8]

证券研究报告|行业研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 8 月 8 日 [Table_Title] MP Materials2025Q2 稀土精矿产销量分别同比增 长 8%/减少 58%至 13,145 吨/2,658 吨，NdPr 产销 量分别同比增长 6%/减少 5%至 597 吨/443 吨 [Table_Title2] 有色金属-海外季报 [Table_Summary] 季报重点内容: ► 2025Q2 生产经营情况 1）稀土精矿 2025Q2，稀土精矿产量为 13,145 吨 REO，同比增长 8%， 环比增长 45%。 2025Q2，稀土精矿销量为 2,658 吨 REO，同比减少 58%， 环比减少 54%。 2025Q2，稀土精矿的实现价格为 4,468 美元/吨 REO，同 比下跌 7%，环比上涨 7%。 2）氧化镨钕（NdPr） 2025Q2，NdPr 产量为 597 吨，同比增长 6%，环比增长 119%。 2025Q2，NdPr 销量为 443 吨，同比减少 5%，环比增长 226%。 2025Q2，镨钕氧化物实现价格为 57 美元/Kg，同比上涨 10%，环比上涨 19% ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The rare earth industry is experiencing stricter total quantity control, with regulations limiting rare earth smelting to state-owned groups, which is expected to significantly reduce non-system supply and benefit prices [1][2][4] - The midstream magnetic material sector has seen an unexpected performance improvement in Q2 2025, benefiting from improved processing fees despite a slowdown in production growth to 17% [1][3] Core Insights and Arguments - National policies aim to combat non-compliant supply and regulate the rare earth industry, providing more opportunities for legitimate operators and improving overall profitability [1][5] - The price transmission mechanism within the rare earth industry has improved, with upstream companies showing a higher acceptance of price increases, which is being passed down to downstream sectors like new energy vehicles [1][6] - The expected moderate growth in rare earth quotas for 2025 will primarily target domestic mining and smelting indicators, covering 80%-90% of production [1][8][9] - System demand is projected to grow by approximately 10% annually, even considering export controls, with a minimum growth rate of over 5% anticipated [1][10] Company-Specific Insights - Baotou Steel (包钢股份) is positioned to benefit from the rare earth price increase cycle through related transactions with Northern Rare Earth, selling low-cost rare earth concentrates [2][12] - If the price of praseodymium-neodymium oxide rises to 600,000 yuan, Baotou's earnings elasticity could increase significantly, with potential profits rising from 300-400 million to 4-5 billion yuan [2][13] - Other companies such as China Rare Earth and Guangsheng Nonferrous are also expected to benefit from the price increase and supply contraction of heavy metals, with significant market value potential [2][14] Additional Important Points - The recycling industry currently operates below 50% capacity utilization, with leading companies holding only a 20% market share, indicating a need for consolidation [2] - The U.S. MP Company has received funding from the Department of Defense, setting a subsidy price significantly above domestic market prices, which may remove the price ceiling for rare earths in China [2][11] - The overall sentiment in the rare earth sector is bullish, with Baotou Steel being the most favored due to its strategic positioning and potential for significant profit increases [2][14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [8] Core Views - The report highlights a significant decline in China's cobalt intermediate imports in June, with a month-on-month decrease of 61.6%, indicating a potential supply vacuum in the second half of the year [2][4] - Lithium prices are expected to rebound in the short term due to recent positive signals, but long-term resource clearing signals remain unclear [4] - Strategic metals such as rare earths and tungsten are undergoing a value reassessment, with strong demand recovery anticipated in the medium to long term [4] Summary by Sections Cobalt and Nickel - China's cobalt intermediate imports in June were 18,991 tons, down 61.6% month-on-month, leading to a potential second wave of price increases as domestic inventory is digested [2][4] - Nickel prices are expected to stabilize as macroeconomic expectations improve, with a long-term upward price trend anticipated [4] Lithium - Recent events, including regulatory changes in lithium mining, indicate stricter domestic mining controls, contributing to short-term price increases for lithium products [4] - The report suggests that while short-term momentum is strong, the long-term supply-demand balance remains uncertain [4] Strategic Metals - The report emphasizes the strategic importance of rare earths and tungsten, with a notable price increase for rare earth concentrates reported at 19,100 yuan/ton, up 1.5% month-on-month [4] - The demand for rare earths is expected to recover due to traditional applications and the acceleration of humanoid robot deployment [4] Market Performance - The report notes that the metal materials and mining sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of 1.70% [14] - The report recommends focusing on companies with cost advantages and volume growth potential in the strategic metals sector [4]

Core Viewpoint - The rare earth sector is experiencing a recovery after recent adjustments, with leading stocks like Northern Rare Earth achieving significant trading volumes and profit growth forecasts for several companies indicating a bullish outlook for the industry [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Domestic rare earth mining quotas are significantly slowing down, and supply is tightening due to policy and overseas supply reductions [2][3]. - The demand for rare earths is driven by emerging sectors such as new energy vehicles and wind power, maintaining a consumption growth rate of over 10% [3][4]. - The recent price increase in rare earth concentrates is supported by a tight supply-demand balance, deepening policy constraints, and external market influences [4][5]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The domestic rare earth production landscape has formed a duopoly with Northern Rare Earth and China Rare Earth, characterized by resource and policy barriers that strengthen the advantages of leading companies [4][5]. - Northern Rare Earth controls 60% of the national light rare earth quota, while China Rare Earth Group has over 70% market share in heavy rare earths, enhancing their resource self-sufficiency [5][6]. Group 3: Company Performance - Northern Rare Earth is expected to report a net profit of 900-960 million yuan for the first half of the year, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 182%-214% due to rising light rare earth prices [6][7]. - Companies like Guangsheng Youse and Shenghe Resources are also expected to see significant profit growth driven by resource advantages and new project launches [6][7]. - The performance of magnetic material companies is more mixed, with some facing pressure due to raw material inventory cycles and export controls [7].

Group 1 - The small metal sector has shown significant activity, with a collective increase of over 3% in stock prices, particularly for companies like Dongfang Zirconium and Haotong Technology, which saw gains exceeding 5% [1] - Supply constraints are evident due to domestic export quota management for antimony, bismuth, germanium, and tungsten, alongside transportation disruptions in Myanmar, leading to a global supply gap exceeding 30% [1] - Demand for small metals is rising, driven by applications in new energy vehicles, energy storage, military high-temperature alloys, and semiconductor packaging materials, with a notable increase in consumption of cobalt and nickel sulfate [1] Group 2 - Small metals have been classified as "strategic resources" by authorities, with export controls on gallium and germanium in 2024 and additional controls on tungsten, bismuth, and antimony in 2025, leading to increased scarcity premiums [1] - Leading companies are expected to report substantial profit growth, with Northern Rare Earth projected to see a more than 18-fold increase in net profit attributable to shareholders in the first half of 2025 [1] - Securities firms express optimism, highlighting that the relaxation of export controls could lead to a convergence of domestic and international prices, benefiting the sector through both valuation and profit increases [2][3] Group 3 - Dongfang Zirconium specializes in the research, production, and sales of zirconium series products, including zirconium silicate and zirconium oxide [2] - Haotong Technology focuses on precious metal recovery and related products, with key offerings including platinum, palladium, and rhodium [2] - Shenghe Resources produces rare earth concentrates and various rare earth products, contributing to the small metal supply chain [3] Group 4 - Guiyan Platinum's product range includes various precious metal compounds such as platinum, palladium, and rhodium [3] - Xianglu Tungsten's main products consist of tungsten oxide, tungsten powder, and tungsten carbide [3] - Tin Industry Co. engages in the exploration, mining, and processing of tin, zinc, copper, and indium, offering a wide array of products [3] Group 5 - Dongfang Tantalum is involved in the research, production, and sales of rare metals like tantalum and niobium [4] - Baotai Co. is recognized as China's largest specialized producer of titanium-based rare metal materials, holding over 40% market share [4]

Group 1 - The China Securities Materials Index (000987) has shown strong performance, with a 1.70% increase as of July 18, 2025, and notable gains in constituent stocks such as Shengxin Lithium Energy (002240) reaching a 10% limit up [1] - The Materials ETF (159944) has seen a 17.14% increase in net value over the past five years, with a maximum monthly return of 20.09% since inception and an average monthly return of 5.90% during rising months [1] - The valuation of the index is at a historical low, with a latest price-to-book ratio (PB) of 1.66, which is lower than 80.63% of the time since the index was established, indicating strong valuation attractiveness [1] Group 2 - As of June 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Securities Materials Index account for 29.27% of the index, including companies like Zijin Mining (601899) and Wanhu Chemical (600309) [2] - Recent announcements from Northern Rare Earth and Baosteel indicate a price adjustment for rare earth concentrate to 19,109 yuan/ton, with price fluctuations linked to changes in REO content [2] - Pacific Securities notes that while there is support for energy metal prices due to government policies promoting orderly competition, there is a lack of significant price transmission in materials, and confidence in sustained price increases may be insufficient [2] Group 3 - The demand for rare earth permanent magnets is expected to grow rapidly due to the increasing sales of electric vehicles and emerging industries such as humanoid robots and energy-efficient products [3] - The long-term growth of demand for rare earth permanent magnets is anticipated to remain robust as new technologies and products emerge [3]