作者：王明夫 老龄化社会正在向我们走来，悲观的人听到了夕阳西下的生命挽歌，乐观的人看到了朝阳升起的经济日出。我和本书的牵头作者张卢锋、曹卓君，显然属 于乐观的人。我们坚信，未来二十年，"银发经济"是重构中国消费格局、驱动产业创新、支撑中国经济增长的重要力量。我对未来二十年的中国银发经济 有十一点认识，供方家批评指正。 一、规模跃迁，从万亿规模的蓝海到百万亿级规模的支柱产业。 未来二十年，中国银发经济将完成从"潜力市场"到"支柱产业"的史诗级跨越。随着"60后""70后"等高净值人群步入退休，老年人口总量增加、寿命延长与 人均消费能力提升这三者将形成乘数效应。这个市场将不再是原来概念下的养老、保健、医疗，而是渗透至消费全域，成为重塑市场格局的决定性力量。 二、消费分层，年龄层次定义银发经济的需求特征和市场结构。 目前，我国以60岁为老年人的起点（以退休年龄为标志），我国人口平均寿命接近80岁。银发经济对应的年龄期间约为20年（60岁-80岁）。随着AI和先 进生物技术应用于医药医疗，未来二十年，人的寿命将大幅延长，据说活到百岁以上是常态。如果依旧以60岁为老年人的起点，那么银发经济对应的年龄 期间可能是40年（ ...

Core Insights - The insurance industry is transitioning from a traditional "product sales" model to an "insurance + service" ecosystem, with AI as a core driver of this evolution [1] Group 1: Trends in Insurance + Service Ecosystem - The perception of insurance is shifting from a "single risk hedging tool" to a "full lifecycle service ecosystem," characterized by four major trends: integration, diversification, standardization, and systematization [2] - Integration is evident in the seamless connection between insurance and healthcare, with more companies adding value-added services like medical and elderly care to their products [2] - Diversification reflects the richness of service forms, driven by rapid advancements in AI technology, leading to new services such as AI health monitoring and intelligent companionship [2] - Standardization relies on technology to optimize service processes, significantly improving the speed and transparency of claims processing, with some claims being processed in seconds [2] - Systematization emphasizes cross-industry ecosystem building, with major insurance groups like China Pacific Insurance and Ping An deeply investing in health and elderly care sectors to create a comprehensive service network [2] Group 2: AI-Driven Evolution in the Insurance Industry - AI is recognized as a core driver in the transition to the "insurance + service" ecosystem, with a need for digitalization to be integrated with business operations [3] - The application of technology in the insurance sector has evolved through three stages: automation (1.0), digitalization (2.0), and the current intelligent era (3.0), where large model technologies are integrated into overall digital strategies [3] - Data from ZhongAn indicates that a smart system can improve departmental efficiency by an average of 50% [3] Group 3: Innovative Applications of AI in Insurance - In the bancassurance channel, deep integration of data and models allows for the creation of joint customer screening models, enhancing customer profiling and resource development [4] - In the smart elderly care sector, AI is becoming a crucial tool to address aging challenges, with applications in monitoring and improving care efficiency [5] - The Chinese smart elderly care market is projected to reach a scale of 6.80 trillion yuan in 2024 and 7.21 trillion yuan in 2025, indicating significant growth potential [5]