证券研究报告 经营韧性，出海红利，左侧成长 ——家电行业2026年度策略报告 2025年11月26日 行业评级：看好 | 分析师 | 马莉 | 分析师 | 张云添 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 邮箱 | mali@stocke.com.cn | 邮箱 | zhangyuntian@stocke.com.cn | | 证书编号 | S1230520070002 | 证书编号 | S1230524020006 | | 分析师 | 文煊 | 分析师 | 芦家宁 | | 邮箱 | wenxuan@stocke.com.cn | 邮箱 | lujianing@stocke.com.cn | | 证书编号 | S1230523120003 | 证书编号 | S1230525030003 | 投资建议 主线一：高股息、高ROE，把握白电龙头经营韧性。 主线二：出海红利未尽，把握出口链机遇。 • 2026年保证白电业绩增长的逻辑支撑仍然是出海，白电龙头在全球布局产能、具备应对关税政策的弹性。当下欧美渠道库存我们预计周转良性， 且在保持降息的情况下，预计地产会带动家电消费。 • 市场普遍担忧国补退 ...

在人口老龄化与数字化转型的历史交汇期，中国智慧养老产业正经历从"局部试点"到"全域渗透"、从"技术叠加"到"生态融合"的质变。 截至2024年，中国60岁以上人口突破3.1亿，占总人口比重攀升至22.0%。传统家庭养老功能弱化、机构养老供给不足、社区服务碎片化等问题日益凸显， 倒逼养老服务向智能化、精准化、普惠化转型。在此背景下，智慧养老依托物联网、人工智能、大数据等新一代信息技术，逐步构建起覆盖居家、社区、 机构的全场景服务网络：智能床垫实时监测心率呼吸、跌倒检测雷达守护老人安全、远程问诊平台打破医疗资源时空限制；"15分钟智慧养老圈"整合助 餐、助洁、康复护理等服务资源，AI算法精准匹配需求与供给；智能护理机器人提升照护效率，电子围栏防范走失风险，数据中台实现多维度健康画 像......智慧养老正重塑养老服务的全生命周期价值。 本报告以"技术破局与人文关怀并重"为核心视角，基于艾瑞对政策脉络、技术应用、市场需求及企业实践的深度洞察，系统梳理行业从"碎片化服 务"向"全场景生态"跃迁的核心逻辑，研判需求侧从"生存型养老"向"品质型养老"跃迁的趋势，预判供给侧从"单一技术应用"向"全周期服务生态"演进的路 径 ...

智慧养老行业 丨研究报告 序言： 在人口老龄化与数字化转型的历史交汇期，中国智慧养老产业正经历从"局部试点"到"全域渗透"、从"技术叠加"到"生态融合"的质变。 截至2024年，中国60岁以上人口突破3.1亿，占总人口比重攀升至22.0%。传统家庭养老功能弱化、机构养老供给不足、社区服务碎片化等问题日益凸显，倒逼养 老服务向智能化、精准化、普惠化转型。在此背景下，智慧养老依托物联网、人工智能、大数据等新一代信息技术，逐步构建起覆盖居家、社区、机构的全场景服务 网络：智能床垫实时监测心率呼吸、跌倒检测雷达守护老人安全、远程问诊平台打破医疗资源时空限制；"15分钟智慧养老圈"整合助餐、助洁、康复护理等服务资 源，AI算法精准匹配需求与供给；智能护理机器人提升照护效率，电子围栏防范走失风险，数据中台实现多维度健康画像......智慧养老正重塑养老服务的全生命周期 价值。 本报告以"技术破局与人文关怀并重"为核心视角，基于艾瑞对政策脉络、技术应用、市场需求及企业实践的深度洞察，系统梳理行业从"碎片化服务"向"全场景生 态"跃迁的核心逻辑，研判需求侧从"生存型养老"向"品质型养老"跃迁的趋势，预判供给侧从"单一技术应用 ...

| 44 | 机州冯雅电器有限公司 | 坐式淋浴荷 | 乔老照护产品 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 45 | 河北瑞朗德医疗器械科技集团有限公司 | 电动马桶升降益 | 养老照护产品 | | 46 | 恒洁卫浴集团有限公司 | 预排数显淋浴化酒 | 养老照护产品 | | 47 | 恒洁卫浴集团有限公司 | 数显面盆龙头 | 养老照护产品 | | 48 | 恒洁卫浴集团有限公司 | 超洁净淋浴房 | 养老照护产品 | | 49 | 汇沉东(厦门)健康科技有限公司 | 自动打包座便椅 | 养老照护产品 | | 50 | 惠达卫浴股份有限公司 | 升降马桶 | 养老照护产品 | | રી | 科勒(中国)投资有限公司 | 步入式家庭浴缸 | 养老照护产品 | | 52 | 科勒(中国)投资有限公司 | 但温淋浴柱花酒 | 养老照护产品 | | રેઝ | 科勒(中国)投资有限公司 | 可调节花洒滑杆支架 | 养老照护产品 | | 54 | 南京洁畅康电器有限公司 | 洁肠水疗智能马桶盖 | 养老照护产品 | | રેર | 欧派家居集团股份有限公司 | 坐式淋浴器 | 养老照护产品 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The "Artificial Intelligence+" initiative represents a significant leap from "Internet+" by focusing on the application and creation of knowledge, aiming to advance the intelligent transformation of the economy and society, marking a new phase in the development of the intelligent economy and society in China [1] Group 1: Development Stage of Artificial Intelligence - Artificial intelligence has entered a new development stage that requires a more systematic perspective, involving upgrades across the entire technology system, including algorithms, data, and computing power [2] - The application of artificial intelligence has expanded beyond individual technologies to various sectors such as healthcare, education, finance, transportation, and industrial manufacturing, indicating a deep integration with the economy and society [2] Group 2: Action Areas and Directions - The document focuses on six major action areas: technology, industry, consumption, livelihood, governance, and global cooperation, proposing 17 specific directions for action [3] - Implementing these actions will help various sectors accurately grasp the central government's decisions and better address issues related to the application of artificial intelligence [3] Group 3: Economic and Social Benefits - The integration of technological and industrial innovation in artificial intelligence can promote the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries and open new avenues for strategic emerging industries, contributing significantly to new productive forces [4] - By 2030, artificial intelligence is expected to contribute over one trillion yuan to the global economy, becoming one of the most important growth drivers [4] Group 4: Enhancing Quality of Life - Artificial intelligence can create smarter work environments, improve educational efficiency through customized learning tools, and enhance the quality of life by developing intelligent applications in healthcare, elderly care, and smart home technologies [5][6] - Specific actions include "Artificial Intelligence + Livelihood Welfare" and "Artificial Intelligence + Quality Consumption," which are closely related to the daily lives of citizens [4] Group 5: Governance and Risk Management - Artificial intelligence can enhance government decision-making and public service precision, significantly improving social governance capabilities [6] - However, there are risks such as model hallucinations and misuse of models, necessitating the establishment of effective regulatory and safety systems [6][7] - Recommendations include accelerating technological breakthroughs, improving data quality, and enhancing the legal framework for artificial intelligence applications [7]

Group 1: Digital Economy Development - The development of the digital economy requires breakthroughs in technology, industrial collaboration, and international governance to build new advantages [1] - The digital economy era is driving profound changes in production factors, industrial forms, and competitive paradigms, with companies that possess technological foresight and agile transformation capabilities being able to seize development opportunities [1] - Key characteristics of digital economy development include innovation and market collaboration, deep restructuring of factor structures, and emerging enterprises having stronger innovation vitality and competitive advantages [1] Group 2: Infrastructure and Innovation Ecosystem - China aims to consolidate and further develop its advantages in the digital economy by advancing new infrastructure construction such as 5G networks and intelligent computing power [2] - The establishment of a unified data factor market is essential to support the innovation and development of technology-based enterprises [2] - Regional collaborative development should focus on promoting distinctive digital industries based on local advantages to form a differentiated development pattern [2] Group 3: Embodied Intelligence - Embodied intelligence aims to break the limitations of traditional artificial intelligence by endowing intelligent agents with physical perception and action capabilities [3] - The global embodied intelligence industry is significant, with applications enhancing productivity, such as the use of 80 intelligent transport vehicles at Shanghai Yangshan Port, which increased throughput by 130% [3] - Embodied intelligence is leading to revolutionary changes in production, service, and innovation ecosystems, while also facing challenges such as physical safety and data sovereignty [3][4] Group 4: Data Factor Market Development - Data is a crucial production factor in the digital economy, and balancing value release with privacy protection is key to market development [5] - Hunan Province has been proactive in building a data factor market, with plans for a national data factor comprehensive pilot zone by 2025 [5][6] - There is a need to enhance personal data rights, improve data trading mechanisms, and strengthen privacy protection to promote high-quality development of the data factor market [6] Group 5: Artificial Intelligence and Robotics - Alibaba Cloud is actively promoting the development of AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) and has made significant advancements in large model training technology [7][8] - The demand for intelligent robots in various sectors, including elderly care, is increasing, necessitating higher computational power for tasks such as perception and decision-making [9][10] - Domestic AI chips are becoming critical for the advancement of intelligent robots, with companies like Zhongke Yihai Microelectronics focusing on developing integrated AI chip architectures [11][12] Group 6: Smart Elderly Care Solutions - The aging population in China necessitates innovative solutions in the healthcare and elderly care sectors, with companies like Yanda Group integrating AI technology into their services [13][14] - Yanda International Health City is leveraging AI for personalized healthcare and rehabilitation solutions, aiming to set a replicable model for smart elderly care [14] Group 7: Digital Transformation in Traditional Industries - Xifeng Liquor is utilizing digital technology to enhance production processes and quality control, implementing a comprehensive digital management system [15][16] - The company is exploring new marketing models and integrating digital technology into its green production system to improve efficiency and sustainability [15] Group 8: Robotics in Households - The robotics industry is expected to accelerate, with companies like Yuanluobo focusing on making intelligent robots accessible to ordinary households [17][18] - The introduction of affordable household robots has the potential to address various family needs, achieving significant market recognition with over 100,000 units sold globally [18][19] Group 9: Digital Freight and Logistics - Digital freight is reshaping the logistics industry, enhancing efficiency and reducing costs through platforms like Manbang Group's "Yunmanman" [20][21] - The Ministry of Transport anticipates a reduction in logistics costs by 300 billion yuan by 2025, with a focus on optimizing transportation organization and resource allocation [21]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the implementation of a comprehensive plan to enhance elderly welfare and promote the silver economy in Liaoning Province, aiming to establish over four silver economy industrial parks by 2027 and achieve a 70% coverage rate of regional elderly services in towns and streets [2] - The plan includes the construction and renovation of at least 50 elderly care institutions annually, with a focus on creating key industries, brand enterprises, and major projects in the silver economy to stimulate consumption [2] - The development of home and community-based elderly care services is emphasized, with the establishment of a three-tier elderly service network covering urban and rural areas by 2029 [2] Group 2 - The province aims to expand the scale of the silver economy by guiding enterprises to explore the market, creating well-known companies in the silver industry, and establishing service mechanisms for these enterprises [3] - A "Senior Service Consumption Promotion Month" will be held every October, encouraging various regions to use consumption vouchers and experience vouchers to boost elderly consumption [3] - The plan promotes the development of innovative elderly products and encourages collaboration among enterprises, research institutions, and industry associations to foster a cooperative innovation model [3] Group 3 - An elderly product and service quality traceability system will be established, along with increased efforts to combat fraud, illegal fundraising, and consumer rights violations affecting the elderly [4] - Continuous strengthening of regulatory oversight in financial management and health care sectors is planned to protect the legal rights of elderly individuals [4]

Core Viewpoint - The implementation plan aims to promote the high-quality development of the silver economy in Liaoning Province, enhancing the welfare of the elderly and stimulating consumption among the elderly population [1][2]. Group 1: Development Goals - By 2027, Liaoning Province plans to establish over 4 silver economy industrial parks, achieve a 70% coverage rate of regional elderly care services, and construct or renovate at least 50 elderly care institutions annually [1]. - The plan emphasizes the development of home and community-based elderly care services, promoting the "Liaoyang to Home" brand and encouraging diverse services such as meal delivery, bathing assistance, and medical support [1][2]. Group 2: Institutional Support - The plan encourages the development of various types of elderly care institutions, including safety net, inclusive support, and fully market-oriented models, while exploring the transformation of public elderly care institutions into state-owned enterprises [2]. - Liaoning Province aims to expand the scale of the silver industry by nurturing business entities and attracting quality enterprises to the region [2]. Group 3: Brand and Standardization - The plan includes initiatives to promote brand development, such as selecting and cultivating a batch of "Liaoning Quality" silver economy products and organizing international expos [3]. - By 2027, the province aims to establish at least 25 local standards and 30 group standards for elderly care services, cultural, and tourism sectors [3]. Group 4: Technological Innovation - The plan encourages the integration of artificial intelligence and new technologies in elderly care, promoting the development of smart nursing and service robots [4]. - Financial products tailored for the elderly will be developed, including savings, investment, and insurance products, alongside expanding tourism services for the elderly [4].

Core Insights - Long-term care insurance (LTCI) is expected to stimulate demand for nursing services, medical equipment, and rehabilitation devices, thereby driving economic growth and creating new economic opportunities [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Development - The LTCI pilot program has covered 180 million people, with over 2.6 million disabled insured individuals receiving benefits, and total fund expenditures exceeding 80 billion yuan [1]. - The "home care + assistive device service" model is anticipated to be promoted nationwide following the implementation of LTCI, presenting new development opportunities for related industries [2]. - The establishment of the first LTCI industrial park in Nantong is attracting service institutions, insurance companies, and assistive device R&D organizations, forming a complete care service industry chain [7]. Group 2: Assistive Devices and Services - Assistive device rental has become a popular policy among insured individuals in LTCI pilot areas, significantly alleviating the financial burden on families of disabled individuals [3]. - In Nantong, individuals can rent a multifunctional nursing bed for only 0.45 yuan per day, with an annual limit of 8,000 yuan, shared between the fund and individuals at an 80:20 ratio [3][4]. - The LTCI program has introduced a range of assistive devices, including electric nursing beds and multifunctional wheelchairs, which have benefited over 2,000 disabled families in recent years [4][6]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - The LTCI's implementation is expected to enhance payment capabilities, directly driving the development of products related to the care of disabled and elderly individuals, such as electric wheelchairs and nursing beds [7]. - The introduction of smart assistive devices, including intelligent nursing robots and home care beds, is gaining traction, with increased interest from companies in developing these technologies [10][12]. - The international standard for elderly care robots, led by China, aims to provide benchmarks for the design, manufacturing, testing, and certification of various elderly care robot products [10].

Group 1: Real Estate Trends - Housing prices are expected to stabilize with a slight decline, but a crash is unlikely. Policies such as lifting purchase restrictions and lowering interest rates have been implemented, but they only prevent drastic drops rather than reversing the trend. By 2025, a new normal of "stability with decline" is anticipated [4] - In 2022, national commercial housing sales area decreased by 5%-10%, and new construction area fell by 10%-15%. The enthusiasm for home buying among younger generations has significantly decreased, with over 60% of young people considering homeownership as non-essential [4] Group 2: Employment Trends - Employment pressure is high, with over 10 million new graduates entering the job market and companies becoming increasingly selective. The global youth unemployment rate is projected to reach 12.6% in 2024, with a significant decline in low-skill job opportunities [5][6] - Many individuals are turning to flexible employment options such as food delivery and ride-sharing, with the food delivery sector alone absorbing over 7 million jobs, 35% of which are held by college graduates [7] Group 3: Financial Trends - Bank interest rates have dropped significantly, with one-year fixed deposit rates falling below 1.5%, the lowest in history. This is part of an effort to encourage spending and investment in the real economy [8][9] - Despite lower interest rates, total deposits have increased by 8%, indicating a cautious consumer sentiment. Recommendations include diversifying investments into government bonds and structured deposits, which offer higher returns [10][11] Group 4: Technology Trends - Artificial intelligence (AI) is becoming an integral part of daily life, with applications in various sectors, including food service and banking. For instance, AI has replaced 30% of bank tellers and is being used in delivery services [12][13] - AI primarily replaces repetitive jobs, while roles requiring creativity and interpersonal skills are becoming more valuable. Embracing AI and acquiring new skills is encouraged [15][16] Group 5: Aging Population Trends - The aging population in China is accelerating, with the proportion of individuals aged 65 and older expected to rise from 16% in 2020 to 18% by 2025. This demographic shift poses challenges for pension systems as the ratio of contributors to beneficiaries declines [17][18] - Innovative solutions such as intergenerational cohabitation, where younger individuals rent rooms from elderly residents while providing assistance, are emerging as potential strategies to address aging-related issues [19][20] - The aging industry is projected to see significant innovation and growth, with opportunities in smart caregiving and senior community services, representing a trillion-dollar market [21]