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对二甲苯:短期有反弹,中期仍偏弱,PTA,短期有反弹,中期仍偏弱,MEG,1-5月差反套
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-09-17 02:09
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - PX, PTA, and MEG are expected to have short - term rebounds but remain weak in the medium term. For PX and PTA, 11 - 01 positive spreads should be held, and 1 - 5 reverse spreads should be used. For MEG, 1 - 5 reverse spreads are recommended. PXN compression positions should be stopped for profit below 220 US dollars. The overall price increase of PX is restricted by poor terminal demand. The PTA processing fee is in a downward channel, and the polyester demand is expected to weaken in the fourth quarter, which is negative for PTA. The MEG supply pressure is gradually emerging, and the valuation is expected to decline in the long - term [1][5][6][8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Dynamics - **PX**: On September 16, the Platts - assessed Asian paraxylene price dropped by 1.50 US dollars/ton. The PX production profit margins are mixed, with non - integrated producers having higher margins and integrated producers seeing shrinking margins. The PX - naphtha spread reached a low on September 15. The Chinese PTA and polyester markets are weak, and an increase in PTA inventory is inevitable. The naphtha price was stable at the end of the session, and PX prices declined on September 16 [2][3] - **PTA**: The PTA spot price rose to 4,610 yuan/ton, with a mainstream basis of 01 - 80, a monthly average price of 4,632.5 yuan/ton, and a monthly settlement price of 4,675.63 yuan/ton [3] - **MEG**: The MEG domestic market was consolidating at a low level with a weak basis. The planned arrival volume at major ports from September 15 - 21 is about 9.4 tons [4] - **Polyester**: On September 16, the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak, with an average sales rate of about 40% by 3:45 pm. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers were average, with an average sales rate of 64% by 3:00 pm [4] Trend Intensity - The trend intensities of PX, PTA, and MEG are all 0, indicating a neutral view [5] Views and Suggestions - **PX**: In the short - term, it will rebound following oil prices. After the terminal's last round of inventory replenishment at the end of September, it may remain weak in the medium - term. The domestic PX operating rate is 87.8% (+4.1%), and the PTA load is 76.8% (+4%). Attention should be paid to the commissioning of new PTA devices and the potential impact of device overhauls [5] - **PTA**: In the short - term, it will rebound following oil prices. After the terminal's inventory replenishment at the end of September, it may remain weak in the medium - term. The PTA processing fee is in a downward channel, and the polyester load is expected to reach a high of no more than 92% and then weaken in the fourth quarter [6] - **MEG**: The short - term valuation has recovered, but it may remain weak in the medium - term. The supply pressure is gradually emerging, and the polyester operating rate is 91.6% (+0.3%), with a high of no more than 92% and expected weakening demand in the fourth quarter [7][8]