Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - PX, PTA, and MEG are expected to have short - term rebounds but remain weak in the medium term. For PX and PTA, 11 - 01 positive spreads should be held, and 1 - 5 reverse spreads should be used. For MEG, 1 - 5 reverse spreads are recommended. PXN compression positions should be stopped for profit below 220 US dollars. The overall price increase of PX is restricted by poor terminal demand. The PTA processing fee is in a downward channel, and the polyester demand is expected to weaken in the fourth quarter, which is negative for PTA. The MEG supply pressure is gradually emerging, and the valuation is expected to decline in the long - term [1][5][6][8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Dynamics - **PX**: On September 16, the Platts - assessed Asian paraxylene price dropped by 1.50 US dollars/ton. The PX production profit margins are mixed, with non - integrated producers having higher margins and integrated producers seeing shrinking margins. The PX - naphtha spread reached a low on September 15. The Chinese PTA and polyester markets are weak, and an increase in PTA inventory is inevitable. The naphtha price was stable at the end of the session, and PX prices declined on September 16 [2][3] - **PTA**: The PTA spot price rose to 4,610 yuan/ton, with a mainstream basis of 01 - 80, a monthly average price of 4,632.5 yuan/ton, and a monthly settlement price of 4,675.63 yuan/ton [3] - **MEG**: The MEG domestic market was consolidating at a low level with a weak basis. The planned arrival volume at major ports from September 15 - 21 is about 9.4 tons [4] - **Polyester**: On September 16, the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak, with an average sales rate of about 40% by 3:45 pm. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers were average, with an average sales rate of 64% by 3:00 pm [4] Trend Intensity - The trend intensities of PX, PTA, and MEG are all 0, indicating a neutral view [5] Views and Suggestions - **PX**: In the short - term, it will rebound following oil prices. After the terminal's last round of inventory replenishment at the end of September, it may remain weak in the medium - term. The domestic PX operating rate is 87.8% (+4.1%), and the PTA load is 76.8% (+4%). Attention should be paid to the commissioning of new PTA devices and the potential impact of device overhauls [5] - **PTA**: In the short - term, it will rebound following oil prices. After the terminal's inventory replenishment at the end of September, it may remain weak in the medium - term. The PTA processing fee is in a downward channel, and the polyester load is expected to reach a high of no more than 92% and then weaken in the fourth quarter [6] - **MEG**: The short - term valuation has recovered, but it may remain weak in the medium - term. The supply pressure is gradually emerging, and the polyester operating rate is 91.6% (+0.3%), with a high of no more than 92% and expected weakening demand in the fourth quarter [7][8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Recently, terminal customers have been actively replenishing their stocks, leading to a significant increase in the sales volume of filament yarns. However, the macro - sentiment has declined, and attention should be paid to macro - level changes [1] - The cost side shows that crude oil maintains a strong current situation but a weak outlook. The PX market lacks significant positive factors, and the PXN spread is expected to fluctuate after compression. The PTA fundamentals are weak, and attention should be paid to potential maintenance due to low processing fees. The polyester demand is in the off - season, with terminal orders and operations declining rapidly, and filament yarn inventories are accumulating [2][3] - In terms of trading strategies, a neutral stance is recommended for PX, PTA, PF, and PR, with a slight upward bias in the short - term under the influence of macro - sentiment. Consider shorting the PTA processing fee when prices are high [4] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The report presents figures on the TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spreads; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spreads; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber basis [8][9][11] Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures include PX processing fee (PXN), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [17][20] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - It shows figures on the toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR spread, and PTA export profit [25][27] Upstream PX and PTA Operations - Figures cover the operating rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the operating rates of PX in China and Asia [28][31][33] Social Inventories and Warehouse Receipts - It includes figures on PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecasts, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [38][41][42] Downstream Polyester Load - Figures show filament yarn sales, short - fiber sales, polyester load, direct - spun filament yarn load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament yarn factory inventory days, and the operating rates of Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving, texturing, and dyeing industries [50][52][63] Detailed PF Data - It includes figures on polyester staple fiber load, factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical and equity inventories, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, raw - recycled price spread, pure polyester yarn operating rate, production profit, polyester - cotton yarn operating rate, and processing fee [74][83][87] Detailed PR Fundamental Data - Figures cover polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, export processing fee, export profit, price difference between East China water bottle chips and recycled 3A - grade white bottle chips, and bottle - chip inter - month spreads [92][94][101]