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纸浆数据日报-20251010
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 06:27
Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The pulp fundamentals show no signs of repair, with no significant reduction in pulp port inventory and the number of warehouse receipts. Pulp futures are running weakly. It is recommended to consider a 11 - 1 reverse spread [5][6]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Price Data - **Futures Prices (October 9, 2025)**: SP2601 is 5104, down 0.74% day - on - day and 3.63% week - on - week; SP2511 is 4804, down 0.62% day - on - day and 4.76% week - on - week; SP2505 is 5146, down 0.73% day - on - day and 3.13% week - on - week [5]. - **Spot Prices (October 9, 2025)**: Coniferous pulp Silver Star is 5520, down 0.54% day - on - day and 2.30% week - on - week; Coniferous pulp Russian Needle is 5050, down 0.98% day - on - day and 2.88% week - on - week; Hardwood pulp is 4250, with 0.00% day - on - day change and 0.71% week - on - week increase [5]. - **Outer - disk Quotes and Import Costs**: Chilean Silver Star outer - disk quote is 700 dollars, down 2.78% month - on - month; Brazilian Goldfish outer - disk quote is 530 dollars, up 3.92% month - on - month; Chilean Venus outer - disk quote is 590 dollars, with 0.00% month - on - month change. The import cost of Brazilian Goldfish is 4344, up 3.87% month - on - month; that of Chilean Venus is 4830, with 0.00% month - on - month change [5]. Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In August 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 61.4 tons, down 4.95% month - on - month; that of hardwood pulp was 125.8 tons, down 6.88% month - on - month. The domestic production of hardwood pulp and chemimechanical pulp fluctuated in September 2025 [5]. - **Inventory**: As of September 25, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 203.3 tons, down 7.9 tons from the previous period, a 3.7% decrease. The futures delivery warehouse inventory also showed a downward trend [5]. - **Demand**: The production of finished paper such as offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and cardboard fluctuated in September 2025, and the current demand for paper products remained stable, with no obvious rebound in paper prices [5]. Valuation Data - **Basis**: On October 9, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 246, with a quantile level of 0.912; the Silver Star basis was 716, with a quantile level of 0.92 [5]. - **Import Profit**: On October 9, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was - 201, with a quantile level of 0.31; that of hardwood pulp Goldfish was - 94, with a quantile level of 0.554 [5].