Core Viewpoint - The tightening liquidity in the London market has led to a historic surge in silver prices, with spot silver reaching a record high of $51.714 per ounce on October 13, marking a daily increase of over 3% [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The London silver market, being the largest for physical silver trading globally, has seen its inventory decline by one-third since mid-2021, with only 200 million ounces remaining, a 75% drop from over 850 million ounces in mid-2019 [2]. - The current supply-demand imbalance is exacerbated by rising industrial and investment demand, particularly from the photovoltaic industry and increasing ETF absorption, which has led to a significant price increase of over 77% in spot silver this year [3][6]. - The implied leasing rate for January silver has surged to 42.72%, indicating tightness in the physical silver market and triggering a rare short squeeze [1][3]. Group 2: Investment Trends - The total holdings of major overseas silver ETFs have increased by 12.8% from 24,957 tons on February 6 to 28,162 tons by October 10, further tightening the available supply in the market [3]. - The relationship between spot and futures prices has become misaligned, with the premium of London silver over the nearest NY silver futures contract reaching $2.31 per ounce, a high not seen in recent years [5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the current short squeeze and liquidity tightening are temporary phenomena, with expectations of a gradual restoration of liquidity as higher prices attract silver back to the London market [6]. - However, the short-term volatility and downside risks for silver are expected to be significantly higher than for gold, due to the smaller market size and relative illiquidity of silver compared to gold [7].

来源：上海证券报微信公众号 伦敦市场流动性紧缩，直接催化了白银价格的历史性突破。10月13日，伦敦现货白银（下称"伦敦银"）快速拉升，盘中最 高触及51.714美元/盎司，续创历史新高，日内最大涨幅超3%。 作为现货借入成本的代表指标，伦敦银1个月期隐含租赁利率已升至42.72%，这意味着白银现货十分紧俏。业内人士向记者 表示，这一数据高企体现了实物交割紧张引发空头挤压的连锁反应，一场罕见的逼空行情正在上演。 白银一月期隐含租赁利率（%） 数据来源：LSEG、五矿期货 "流动性风暴"未止 银价不断突破前高 伦敦是全球最大的白银现货交易市场。 数据显示，自2021年年中以来，伦敦白银市场库存已下降1/3，目前自由流通量仅剩2亿盎司，较2019年年中超8.5亿盎司的 高点下降了75%。相较于年消费量，其缓冲垫已"薄如蝉翼"。 库存"见底"的另一端是不断攀升的价格——今年以来，现货白银涨超77%。 渣打中国财富管理部首席投资策略师王昕杰接受上证报记者采访时解释，矿山产量难以填补日益增长的工业和投资需求， 特别是光伏产业和ETF的持续吸纳，导致供需失衡加剧。 高盛在其10月12日的报告中也认为，年初，由于市场担忧美国 ...