1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - A-share market rebounded strongly with over 5100 stocks rising, and the market turnover reached 2.1 trillion yuan. Military stocks soared, while the oil and gas sector pulled back [28]. - The bond market had a generally strong and volatile performance. Treasury bond futures rose, and the yield of long-term bonds declined. The money market remained stable and loose [17]. - The exchange rate of the onshore RMB against the US dollar rose, while the US dollar index also increased slightly [21]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data Overview - GDP growth rate in Q4 2025 was 4.5%, lower than the previous quarter and the same period last year [1]. - In February 2026, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, and the non-manufacturing PMI for business activities was 49.5%, both lower than the same period last year [1]. - The social financing scale in February 2026 was 2385.5 billion yuan, slightly lower than the previous month but higher than the same period last year [1]. - The year-on-year growth rates of M0, M1, and M2 in February 2026 were 14.1%, 5.9%, and 9.0% respectively, all higher than the previous month and the same period last year [1]. - The new RMB loans in February 2026 were 900 billion yuan, higher than the previous month but lower than the same period last year [1]. - The CPI in February 2026 increased by 1.3% year-on-year, and the PPI decreased by 0.9% year-on-year [1]. - The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment in February 2026 was 1.8%, and the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 2.8% [1]. - The year-on-year growth rates of export and import amounts in February 2026 were 39.60% and 13.80% respectively, showing significant growth [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - The US government proposed a 15 - point plan to end the conflict with Iran through Pakistan, covering nuclear programs, missile capabilities, and regional issues. Iran may get sanctions lifted in exchange [2][12]. - Trump said the US was in talks with Iran, and an agreement might be close, but he was not satisfied with the current arrangement [3][13]. - Iran started charging tolls for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, and the number of ships decreased by 95% compared to before the conflict [3]. - The EU postponed the proposal to permanently ban the import of Russian oil [3]. - The central bank will conduct a 500 - billion - yuan MLF operation on March 25, with a net increase of 50 billion yuan [4]. 3.2.2 Metals - A large light rare - earth mine was discovered in Mianning County, Sichuan, with an additional resource of 9.6656 million tons of rare - earth oxides [5]. - More central banks are expected to buy gold in 2026 [5]. - Many banks issued risk warnings for precious metals [5]. - Turkey is considering using its $135 - billion gold reserve to support the lira [5]. - India extended the validity of the gold import tariff quota under the India - UAE Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement until June 30 [5]. 3.2.3 Energy and Chemicals - The US proposed a peace plan to Iran, and Qatar Energy declared force majeure on some LNG supply contracts due to missile attacks [6]. - Japan will start releasing its national oil reserve on March 26 [7]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products - As of mid - March, most agricultural product prices in the national circulation field increased. Bean粕 had the highest increase of 6.82%, while live pigs decreased by 2.88% [8]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On March 24, the central bank conducted a 17.5 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of 3.35 billion yuan. On March 25, it will conduct a 500 - billion - yuan MLF operation, with a net injection of 50 billion yuan [9]. 3.3.2 Key News - The central bank governor met with the CEO of DBS Group, and DBS will be the second RMB clearing bank in Singapore [11]. - The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission emphasized promoting the relocation of central enterprises to Xiongan New Area [11]. - The US proposed a peace plan to Iran, and diplomatic efforts are underway to promote peace [12][13][14]. - The market supervision department will strengthen price supervision and anti - unfair competition work [14]. - The US private credit market shows risk signals, and the debt rating of a private credit fund was downgraded [14]. - The Ministry of Foreign Affairs called for an immediate cease - fire and peace talks in the Iran - related situation [15]. - Japan's finance minister will hold a bond issuance hearing in June [15]. - There were some bond - related events, including non - effective bondholder meetings and credit rating adjustments [15]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The inter - bank bond market was generally strong and volatile. Treasury bond futures rose, and the yield of long - term bonds declined. The money market remained stable and loose [17]. - The exchange - traded bond market had mixed performances, with some bonds rising and some falling [17]. - The convertible bond index rose, and the short - term Shibor rates mostly declined [18]. - The central bank and policy banks conducted bond issuance operations, and the yields and multiples were announced [19][20]. - European and US bond yields generally rose [20]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The onshore RMB against the US dollar rose, and the US dollar index also increased slightly [21]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - The issuance of panda bonds has increased significantly this year, providing more investment options, but most have no obvious premium [22]. - Credit bonds may face short - term fluctuations, but demand may be supported in April. It is advisable to buy on dips and moderately extend the duration [22][23]. - The new regulatory rating method for wealth management companies is beneficial to the industry, and the bank sector may be favored by low - risk - tolerance funds [23]. - There may be a liquidity gap of about 450 billion yuan in April, and the central bank is expected to use quantitative tools to address it [24]. - The market is currently trading inflation - induced liquidity tightening expectations. It is advisable to reduce positions and make strategic adjustments [24]. - It is recommended to participate in long - term bonds during adjustments, focus on short - term bonds, and pay attention to the narrowing of interest rate spreads [24]. - In the current environment, the bond supply has room to expand, and it is advisable to moderately extend the duration and diversify the portfolio [25][26]. 3.3.6 Today's Reminder - On March 25, 184 bonds will be listed, 218 bonds will be issued, 143 bonds will make payments, and 300 bonds will pay principal and interest [27]. 3.4 Stock Market Key News - A - shares rebounded strongly, with over 5100 stocks rising. Military stocks, green power, and other sectors led the gains, while the oil and gas sector pulled back [28].

Group 1: Market Strategy and Sentiment - The recent volatility in the AH market is attributed to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and hawkish signals from the US Federal Reserve, leading to a liquidity feedback loop and heightened panic sentiment [2][3] - The sentiment index for A-shares has reached panic levels, while the Hong Kong stock sentiment remains pessimistic, suggesting a potential for a rebound after sufficient emotional release [2][3] - A shift in funding strategies is observed, with funds moving from offensive to defensive positions, particularly favoring consumer and financial sectors as investors seek safety amid rising uncertainties [3] Group 2: Fixed Income and Economic Indicators - The fiscal data for January-February 2026 shows a strong performance in government spending, with general budget revenue turning positive year-on-year, while government fund income has seen a widening decline [5] - The market is transitioning from a risk-off trading environment to one focused on inflation pressures and liquidity tightening, indicating a new phase in stagflation trading [6] - The ABS market has seen a negative net financing of 86.46 billion yuan in 2026, with a notable increase in issuance but a contraction in net financing, suggesting a cautious outlook for the sector [8] Group 3: Company-Specific Insights - Yushun Technology, which focuses on humanoid robots, reported a significant increase in revenue and profitability, with a gross margin exceeding 60% and a net profit margin of 35% for 2025, indicating strong market confidence in the humanoid robotics sector [10] - Satellite Chemical's 2025 revenue reached 46.068 billion yuan, with a net profit of 5.311 billion yuan, benefiting from lower operating costs and an improved industry supply structure [13] - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation reported a revenue of 2.7836 trillion yuan for 2025, with a net profit of 31.8 billion yuan, highlighting the company's integrated advantages in upstream and downstream operations [26] Group 4: Industry Trends and Projections - The construction investment landscape is shifting towards integrating safety and development, focusing on collaborative effects across various infrastructure networks, which is expected to stabilize growth in 2026 [11] - The automotive sector is anticipated to benefit from a recovery in restaurant demand, which is expected to drive price recovery for companies like China Resources Beer [18] - The logistics and shipping industry, particularly COSCO Shipping, is projected to see a significant increase in freight rates due to global supply chain disruptions stemming from geopolitical tensions [23]

Group 1: Overseas Macro Trends and Strategies - The escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz has heightened concerns over oil prices, with the U.S.-Iran conflict intensifying and market expectations shifting from no interest rate cuts to pricing in rate hikes [5][19] - U.S. stock markets continue to adjust, facing pressure from rising U.S. Treasury yields and liquidity tightening, with earnings beginning to show negative growth [5][31] - Gold is experiencing short-term declines due to de-leveraging and concerns over interest rate hikes, but long-term bullish logic remains intact [5][36] Group 2: Domestic Macro Trends and Strategies - Economic indicators for January and February show improvement, with significant increases in imports and exports, stabilization in investments, and a rebound in retail sales, although the real estate sector continues to face challenges [6][39] - Housing prices in major cities are showing signs of marginal recovery, with first-tier cities like Shanghai and Beijing experiencing a halt in declines and slight increases [6][39] Group 3: A-Share Market Strategy - The A-share market is expected to experience a period of consolidation, with a focus on defensive sectors, energy security, and sectors benefiting from economic recovery [7][42] - Recommended sectors include low-position defensive stocks (utilities, coal, agriculture, consumption, banking), energy security (electricity, wind, solar, storage), and recovery sectors (semiconductors, power equipment, machinery) [7][42] Group 4: Market Review - The A-share index has seen significant declines due to geopolitical tensions, with small and mid-cap stocks leading the downturn, while the ChiNext index has shown resilience [8][17] - The communication and banking sectors were among the few to post gains, while materials and chemicals faced substantial losses [8][17] Group 5: Fund Sentiment - Trading activity in the A-share market has cooled, with declining average daily turnover and turnover rates, indicating a slowdown in sector rotation [10][21] - Domestic public funds have seen a resurgence in new issuances, while foreign capital has shown a declining trend in northbound trading activity [10][28]

Core Viewpoint - The equity market is under pressure due to ongoing geopolitical conflicts, tightening global liquidity expectations, and high oil prices, leading to a decline in risk appetite for equity assets [1][18] Weekly Review of Convertible Bond Market - During the week of March 16-20, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 3.38% to 3957.1 points, while the China Convertible Bond Index dropped 3.15% to 492.6 points [1][5] - Major indices experienced more declines than gains, with only the ChiNext Index rising by 1.3% [1][5] - The trading volume in the convertible bond market decreased, with the total daily trading volume for the entire A-share market falling by 11.5% to 2.21 trillion yuan [10][11] Market Outlook - The current adjustment in the convertible bond market may continue for another 20-50 days, with a potential decline of 10%-20% expected [2][19] - The People's Bank of China has indicated a commitment to maintaining stability in financial markets, which may provide liquidity support to the equity market [2][19] - The focus is shifting towards fundamental pricing as the market approaches the annual report disclosure period, with physical assets being favored over virtual assets [3][25] Sector Performance - The majority of sectors saw declines, with only the telecommunications and banking sectors showing positive performance [1][7] - Convertible bonds across all sectors fell, with financial convertible bonds showing relative resilience [1][7] Trading Activity - The number of convertible bonds subject to forced redemption decreased, with four bonds totaling 1.061 billion yuan announced for forced redemption, down by 2.852 billion yuan from the previous week [15][26] - The average price of convertible bonds fell by 5.69 yuan to 101.92 yuan, indicating a continued decline in valuation [10][11] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to maintain strict control over positions and focus on low-priced convertible bonds for defensive strategies [3][25] - There may be opportunities for rebound in strong stocks during market fluctuations, with a cautious approach recommended for speculative participation [3][25]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant decline in gold prices, with both New York Mercantile Exchange gold futures and London spot gold prices falling below $4200 per ounce, erasing all gains made this year [2] - International gold prices have dropped sharply over the past two weeks, with a cumulative decline of over $1400 per ounce compared to the historical high on January 29 [3] - Analysts attribute the decline in gold prices to multiple factors, including heightened inflation concerns due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, reduced expectations for interest rate cuts, and tightening liquidity [3] Group 2 - The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is identified as a key variable affecting market sentiment, with the potential for worsening conditions if the conflict persists [4] - Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are reported to severely impact oil and gas export revenues for Middle Eastern countries, which may lead these nations to sell gold, further increasing downward pressure on gold prices [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of rising oil prices due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, highlighting concerns about stagflation and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, which is currently leaning towards tightening. The expectation is that the Fed will not lower interest rates, which is seen as a baseline scenario, while the possibility of rate hikes in 2026 remains low [2][5][45]. Group 1: Market Expectations and Federal Reserve Policy - The market is currently speculating on the possibility of a 25 basis point rate hike by the Federal Reserve in 2026, with the probability increasing from 0% to 12% as of March 20 [2][5][15]. - The Fed's hawkish stance is expected to persist, with the focus on short-term inflation pressures rather than long-term stagflation risks, which are deemed unlikely under current conditions [21][24]. - The Fed's recent FOMC meeting confirmed a hawkish tone, with inflation risks being a primary concern, leading to increased financial pressure in the market [10][15][11]. Group 2: Oil Prices and Economic Impact - Since the end of February, oil prices have surged, with Brent crude reaching $111 per barrel, a significant increase from $71 prior to the geopolitical tensions, reflecting a 56% rise [5][15][45]. - The article argues that the conditions for a "great stagflation" similar to the 1970s are not present, as the current economic environment lacks the necessary wage-price spiral dynamics [21][46]. - The supply shocks from rising oil prices are expected to have a temporary impact on inflation, with demand likely to be suppressed through various economic mechanisms [22][24]. Group 3: Geopolitical Risks and Market Dynamics - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is a critical factor influencing oil prices, with the potential for a "negative feedback" loop between oil prices, financial conditions, and economic performance [30][37]. - The article emphasizes that while geopolitical tensions may temporarily elevate oil prices, the subsequent economic slowdown could lead to a decrease in demand, ultimately creating conditions for the Fed to consider rate cuts [30][37]. - Historical precedents indicate that the Fed tends to respond to short-term inflationary pressures from geopolitical events by maintaining a cautious approach until the situation stabilizes [29][34].

Group 1 - The macroeconomic perception has fluctuated significantly, indicating that if the conflict evolves into a protracted war, it will impact global energy, supply chains, inflation, asset pricing, and the reassessment of great power security premiums [2][5]. - The market's understanding of the US-Iran conflict has shifted from a quick resolution to a prolonged struggle, leading to broader macroeconomic implications [4]. - Recent trading has shown a "compensatory correction," with macroeconomic fluctuations outpacing changes in the war's status, highlighting concerns over supply chain disruptions and escalating military actions [4][5]. Group 2 - A prolonged conflict will not only be a geopolitical issue but will also significantly raise energy prices due to longer shipping times, higher premiums, reduced supply, and persistent security threats [5]. - Since February 28, crude oil prices have surged, with WTI increasing by approximately 47% and Brent by about 55%, reflecting normal feedback within traditional supply-demand frameworks [5]. - The bond market is experiencing a phase of "giving up on fantasies," with the 2-year US Treasury yields rising above the upper range of the federal funds rate, indicating market skepticism about the end of the Fed's rate hike cycle [5][8]. Group 3 - Central banks' hawkish stances have intensified tightening fears, with the Federal Reserve discussing potential rate hikes and adjusting inflation expectations upward [8]. - The European Central Bank and the Bank of England have adopted more aggressive positions, with the ECB raising its inflation forecast significantly, which has led to increased expectations for rate hikes [8]. - The dollar index has appreciated by about 1.9% since February 28, reflecting both safe-haven demand and tightening liquidity expectations [8]. Group 4 - Various asset classes have recently breached critical levels, indicating a tightening liquidity environment, with significant declines in commodities, bonds, and equities [9]. - The energy supply shortage is beginning to impact demand, with industrial supply and global flight operations facing notable pressures [11]. - Southeast Asian countries are proactively reducing production scales in response to supply chain disruptions, which may further strain global economic growth [12]. Group 5 - The surge in aviation fuel prices by 140% is directly affecting fuel surcharges, leading airlines to consider reducing flight schedules, which could significantly impact the third sector's economic activities [13]. - The US economy was already exhibiting stagflation-like conditions before the conflict, with inflation not returning to 2% in a non-recession environment and zero growth in employment despite nominal increases [13].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of rising oil prices due to geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, leading to concerns about stagflation and tightening financial conditions, with the Federal Reserve's stance leaning towards hawkishness, indicating that not lowering interest rates may be the baseline policy [1][4][44]. Group 1: Market Expectations and Federal Reserve Actions - The market is currently speculating on the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, with the probability increasing from 0% to 12% as of March 20, 2026 [5][16][44]. - The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance is expected to remain, with the likelihood of not lowering rates being a key point, while the conditions for a repeat of the 1970s stagflation are deemed insufficient [22][44]. - Financial pressures in the U.S. have intensified post-March FOMC meeting, leading to a tightening of market conditions, with significant declines in equities and commodities [16][44]. Group 2: Oil Price Dynamics and Economic Implications - Brent crude oil prices have surged to $111 per barrel by March 19, 2026, a significant increase of approximately 56% from $71 before the geopolitical conflict began [5][44]. - The article suggests that the conditions for a "great stagflation" in the U.S. are not present, and if the geopolitical situation escalates, a recession is more likely than prolonged stagflation [23][45]. - The supply shock from rising oil prices is expected to have a temporary inflationary effect, which may not lead to sustained demand increases due to various economic mechanisms [22][25][45]. Group 3: Feedback Loops and Future Scenarios - The relationship between oil prices, financial conditions, and the economy is described as a "negative feedback" loop, where rising oil prices could suppress demand and ultimately lead to lower prices [46][36]. - The easing of geopolitical tensions could be a favorable condition for oil prices to peak, but the potential for a prolonged increase in oil price levels remains a concern [33][46]. - The article emphasizes that if the geopolitical conflict is short-lived, oil prices may decline, potentially delaying the Federal Reserve's rate cut timeline, but if prices remain elevated longer than expected, it could trigger recession fears [22][36][46].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market's focus remains on the US - Iran war. Rising energy prices have led to inflation concerns, causing liquidity tightening and a significant decline in market risk appetite [1][17]. - Due to the escalating Iran war situation and inflation concerns, risk assets have been sold off, and the trading logic in the market is chaotic. It is recommended to focus on risk - aversion and appropriately reduce positions [2][20]. - With the potential rise in stagflation pressure, the bond market is unlikely to have a one - way trend. There is a possibility of reversal at extreme points, and it is advisable to focus on band - trading opportunities [3][25]. - Steel prices continue to be in a weak and volatile pattern, mainly due to fundamental constraints. It is difficult for steel prices to have a significant upward drive in the short term [4][27]. - The methanol futures are expected to be in a high - level shock in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see [5][61]. - Under the influence of capital sentiment, the European - line container freight futures still have the potential to rise. However, without strong fundamental support, the high prices on the disk may not be sustainable. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high levels after confirming the inflection point of sentiment [6][65]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Kashkari is now uncertain about the expected one - time interest rate cut in 2026 due to the war cloud [11]. - Kevin Warsh, the nominee for the Fed Chair, will slowly advance the Fed's balance - sheet reduction, aiming to restore the Fed's balance - sheet size to the pre - 2008 crisis level [12]. - The White House will provide naval escort and political risk insurance for oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Gold prices have dropped by about 4%, and silver has fallen by more than 10%. The strong US dollar has continued to suppress the market. The short - term inflation pressure in the US has increased, and the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has decreased. The precious metals' downward trend has been intensified. Gold has not yet stabilized [13]. - Investment advice: The short - term market volatility has increased, the precious metals' prices are oscillating, and silver still needs to pay attention to the risk of decline [14]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump claims that Iran's military capabilities have been severely damaged and denies being "dragged into the war" by Israel. The US will provide insurance and naval escort for ships passing through the Persian Gulf. Trump has ordered to cut off trade with Spain [15][16]. - The market's focus is on the US - Iran war. Rising energy prices have led to inflation concerns, causing liquidity tightening and a significant decline in market risk appetite. The US dollar is expected to remain strong in the short term [17]. - Investment advice: The US dollar index is expected to be strong in the short term [18]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - In February 2026, the number of new A - share accounts decreased month - on - month and year - on - year due to the Spring Festival holiday, but the enthusiasm of margin traders remained high. The number of new margin trading accounts increased year - on - year [19]. - The A - share market opened higher and closed lower. The Iran war situation has gradually spread, and the market is worried about the war getting out of control. Risk assets have been sold off. Due to inflation concerns, interest - rate hike trading has emerged. The market's trading logic is chaotic. It is recommended to focus on risk - aversion and appropriately reduce positions [20]. - Investment advice: Appropriately reduce the long - position strategy of stock index futures and wait for the situation to become clear for right - side trading [21]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank had a net injection of 50 billion yuan in the open - market Treasury bond trading in February. On March 3, the central bank conducted a 34.3 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of 491.7 billion yuan on that day [22][23]. - The market has revised up the duration of the conflict, and inflation expectations have risen, leading to a decrease in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, a stronger US dollar, and an increase in US Treasury bond yields. The long - term Treasury bonds are in a relatively tangled state, and the yield curve has steepened. If the stagflation pressure rises, the bond market is unlikely to have a one - way trend. It is advisable to focus on band - trading opportunities [23][25]. - Investment advice: The bond market will be in a shock before the meeting, and attention should be paid to the impact of supply shocks after the meeting [26]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The 4th Session of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference opened on the afternoon of March 4, with a duration of 7 days. Steel prices are still in a volatile pattern. Geopolitical factors and rising energy prices have not brought substantial benefits to steel prices due to fundamental constraints. Before the terminal demand improves substantially, steel prices are expected to remain in a volatile pattern, and the downside space is relatively limited [27]. - Investment advice: In the short term, it is advisable to adopt a volatile trading strategy and pay attention to potential undervalued opportunities [28]. 3.2.2 Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal prices in the central - China market are running steadily with a weak trend. The supply has stabilized in the short term, but the intermediate links are mostly waiting and watching, and the inventory has accumulated at the mine end. The terminal demand is slowly released, and steel mills' profits are under pressure, so their enthusiasm for purchasing coking coal is not high. During the major meetings, steel mills have the expectation of reducing production, and the demand for coke is limited. The coking coal prices in the central - China market are expected to remain stable in the short term [29]. - Investment advice: In the short term, the supply is recovering rapidly after the festival, but the terminal demand has not been significantly activated, and the spot prices are still weak. The market will remain in a volatile pattern. Attention should be paid to policy changes around the two sessions and the resumption rhythm of downstream industries [31]. 3.2.3 Black Metal (Steam Coal) - On March 3, the steam coal prices in the northern port market remained stable. The willingness of spot traders to sell has increased, but the supply of high - quality spot goods is tight, and traders' asking prices are firm. The demand has not improved significantly, and the成交 situation is not good. The steam coal prices are expected to continue to rise due to the Indonesian export restrictions and the high oil prices caused by the Middle - East conflict [32]. - Investment advice: The short - term steam coal prices are expected to be strong [32]. 3.2.4 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - In early March 2026, the 11.6 - million - ton - per - year iron ore processing and expansion project of Leting Xintian Industry Co., Ltd. reached a key promotion node. The external uncertainties have increased, and the supply - demand situation of the industrial chain is uncertain. The iron ore prices are expected to be weak and volatile. During the two sessions, Hebei is expected to limit production by 30%. Affected by production restrictions and weather, the overall molten iron output is expected to rebound in mid - to - late March [33]. - Investment advice: During the two sessions, Hebei is expected to limit production by 30%. Affected by production restrictions and weather, the overall molten iron output is expected to rebound in mid - to - late March. The external uncertainties have increased, and the supply - demand situation of the industrial chain is uncertain. The iron ore prices are expected to be weak and volatile [34]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The US soybean crushing volume in January 2026 was 6.84 million short tons, higher than analysts' average forecast. The rise in crude oil prices due to the Middle - East conflict and the previous US bio - fuel policy have indirectly benefited the US soybean crushing demand and CBOT soybean prices. The domestic soybean meal futures prices are strongly oscillating, but the spot prices are slow to follow, and the basis has been continuously narrowing [36]. - Investment advice: The soybean meal futures prices may be strongly oscillating under cost support. Future attention should be paid to China's soybean purchases from the US, reserve sales, the progress of Brazil's soybean harvest and exports, and China's import soybean customs - clearance policies [36]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - India's palm oil imports in February increased by 10.1% month - on - month, reaching a six - month high. The increase in India's palm oil and soybean oil imports may reduce the inventories in Indonesia and Malaysia and boost the palm oil and soybean oil futures. The international diesel price increase has supported the palm oil price, and the Indian trade is expected to increase palm oil imports in March, which is conducive to the inventory reduction of Malaysian palm oil in March [37][38]. - Investment advice: The international geopolitical conflict has led to a sharp rise in crude oil and diesel prices, which is beneficial to the bio - diesel industry and will support the prices of the oil market. The oil market is expected to remain strong before the international situation eases [38]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The US corn export inspection volume in the week ending February 26, 2026, decreased by 8% week - on - week but increased by 37% year - on - year. The corn futures and spot prices are oscillating strongly. The supply from the grass - roots level is expected to gradually recover. The downstream demand has support, and the centralized procurement by the China National Grain Reserves Corporation has boosted the market sentiment [39][40]. - Investment advice: The low inventories at the north - south ports, the slow release of the grass - roots selling pressure, and the tight supply of high - quality corn in the Northeast provide support for the price. However, there is still a risk of concentrated selling of the ground - stored corn in the Northeast as the temperature rises. The weak demand in the downstream breeding and deep - processing industries and the potential impact of wheat auctions may suppress the price. In the short term, the market is affected by multiple factors, and the current futures price is relatively high. It is advisable to trade according to the trend and not to chase the high price. In the medium - to - long term, the price is expected to stabilize and rebound, but the upward range is limited by demand recovery and policy regulation. Attention should be paid to the weather, corn reserve purchase policies, and wheat auction dynamics [40]. 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - In the northern Xinjiang region, cotton enterprises' basis quotes are stable, and textile enterprises are adopting the "locked - basis" procurement strategy. Australia's cotton production in 2025/26 is expected to decrease by 20% due to water supply shortages and low cotton prices. The import yarn prices have increased slightly, and the port inventory has continued to increase. The Zhengzhou cotton futures have entered a shock - adjustment state after a sharp rise. The downstream gauze market recovery is slow, and the import yarn inventory has a negative impact on domestic cotton consumption. The new Xinjiang cotton target - price subsidy policy is about to be introduced, which will have a significant impact on the cotton planting area [41][42][44]. - Investment advice: The textile enterprises' cotton yarn inventory is not high, and the "Golden March and Silver April" peak season is approaching. The short - term factors such as the reduction of US tariffs on Chinese goods support the cotton price. The commercial cotton inventory in China and Xinjiang has decreased year - on - year, and the spot basis is strong. The market sentiment is expected to be positive. The Zhengzhou cotton futures are not expected to decline significantly in the short term. However, the peak - season performance is uncertain, and the high domestic - foreign cotton price difference will suppress the cotton price increase. The futures price is expected to be in a shock in the short term. Attention should be paid to the macro - level dynamics, the resumption of downstream enterprises, and the order situation [45]. 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Hogs) - Huatong Co., Ltd. has provided a maximum - amount joint and several liability guarantee for the downstream pig - farmers' "Huatong Piglet Loan" business. The pig market has over - capacity and inventory pressure, and the overall spot sentiment is not optimistic. The futures price has a relatively high premium compared to the spot price, so the short - term long - position safety margin is not high. In the medium term, it is more suitable to adopt the strategy of short - selling on significant rebounds. Attention should be paid to the situation of piglets and sows to determine whether the cycle will reverse [46]. - Investment advice: Continuously pay attention to the short - selling opportunities brought by the postponed supply pressure [47]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - On March 2, the LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of $47.76 per ton. The Shanghai lead futures rose and then fell. The US - Iran geopolitical conflict has not eased, and the decline in interest - rate cut expectations, recession trading, and liquidity withdrawal have affected the precious metals and non - ferrous metals markets. The LME lead inventory remained unchanged, and the 0 - 3 cash spread decreased. The domestic social lead inventory decreased marginally. The lead price rebounded from a low level due to cost support and supply - demand mismatch, but it is also affected by the macro - level situation. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production of downstream large enterprises [48][49]. - Investment advice: In terms of the unilateral strategy, it is advisable to pay attention to medium - term long - position opportunities; in terms of the arbitrage strategy, it is advisable to wait and see [49]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - In January, the total global sales of eight major Japanese automakers increased by 0.7% year - on - year, while the total production decreased by 1.6%. On March 2, the LME 0 - 3 zinc was at a discount of $20.6 per ton. The domestic and international zinc prices oscillated downward. The US - Iran geopolitical conflict has not eased, and the increase in energy prices and the decline in interest - rate cut expectations have affected the non - ferrous metals market. The LME zinc inventory decreased, and the 0 - 3 cash spread oscillated. The domestic social zinc inventory increased significantly, and the domestic fundamentals are under short - term pressure. The zinc price may enter a stage of shock adjustment, and it is advisable to manage positions well in the high - volatility market [50][51]. - Investment advice: In terms of the unilateral strategy, it is advisable to wait and see, and it is recommended to close the previous long positions; in terms of the arbitrage strategy, it is advisable to wait and see for the month - spread arbitrage, and it is recommended to adopt the medium - term positive cross - market arbitrage strategy [52]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Canadian mining company First Phosphate has obtained conditional approval for a CAD 16.7 - million (about USD 12.2 - million) grant to support its lithium - iron - phosphate battery - grade phosphoric acid processing plan. The lithium carbonate futures limit - downed, and the weighted contract open interest decreased. The market rumor that the Middle - East situation affects energy - storage demand has limited impact. In March, the domestic lithium carbonate inventory is expected to decrease by about 2,000 tons. After the sharp decline in the futures price, the downstream buying demand has increased. In April, the lithium carbonate demand is expected to continue to increase, and the inventory will continue to decrease. Attention should be paid to the Zimbabwe export policy, the power - terminal situation, and the demand fulfillment [53][54]. - Investment advice: Referring to the night - session non - ferrous metals' volatility, the lithium carbonate futures may open lower today. The risk - return ratio around 150,000 yuan is average, but if the price continues to fall, it may be advisable to gradually try long positions [55]. 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - Indonesia's tin production quota in 2026 is 65,860 tons. The domestic SHFE tin futures warehouse receipts decreased, and the LME tin inventory increased. The short - term supply shortage situation has eased with the resumption of production in Myanmar and the expected increase in Indonesia's production in 2026. In the long - term, the supply is concentrated and vulnerable, and the supply may be restricted by anti - globalization and resource nationalism. The domestic smelting processing fees have remained unchanged, and the smelting profit margin has decreased slightly. The smelting enterprises' production decreased during the Spring Festival, and the downstream enterprises' holiday was extended. With the resumption of production of some downstream enterprises, the traders' willingness to sell has increased. Attention should be paid to the downstream inventory replenishment [56][57]. - Investment advice: Under the background of the US - Israel - Iran conflict, the risk - aversion sentiment and the rising US dollar index have suppressed the tin price. The visible inventory is relatively high, and the supply expectation has increased. The tin price is expected to be in a shock - consolidation state in the short term. Attention should be paid to the downstream receiving situation, open interest changes, and the macro - level and capital sentiment [58]. 3.2.14 Energy Chemical (Carbon Emissions

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Market Implications - The nomination of Waller as Fed Chair may signal a new era for the central bank, fundamentally reshaping investor risk expectations [1] - The long-standing reliance on the Fed's liquidity support is facing significant challenges, indicating a substantial reduction in future tolerance for market errors [1] - Waller has criticized the Fed's balance sheet expansion, advocating for a structural reduction of the current $6.6 trillion balance sheet, suggesting that liquidity support should only be a crisis response rather than a routine operation [1][3] Group 2: Market Reactions and Sector Performance - The tech sector is under pressure, with software stocks dropping approximately 25% this year, reflecting concerns over competition and the sustainability of existing revenue streams [4] - The ongoing weakness in digital assets, with Bitcoin down over 50% since last October, has negatively impacted risk sentiment across various asset classes [5] - Despite sector-specific volatility, the overall macroeconomic fundamentals in the U.S. remain robust, with cyclical stocks performing well and strong earnings reported by tech companies [6] Group 3: Liquidity and Debt Concerns - Waller's potential push for accelerated quantitative tightening could lead to a loss of bank reserves and tighter collateral conditions, increasing the risk of liquidity shortages and potentially limiting credit supply [3][7] - The shift in the Fed's approach may lead to higher systemic risks, especially if liquidity tightens while facing external or internal shocks [7] - Major cloud companies are ramping up capital expenditures significantly, with projected spending exceeding $600 billion by 2026, raising investor concerns about return on investment [8]