日度报告——综合晨报 特朗普称伊朗军事能力遭重创 否认被以色 列"拖入战争" [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2026-03-04 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 特朗普称伊朗军事能力遭重创 否认被以色列"拖入战争" 市场关注的焦点继续在美伊战争，能源价格走高引发通胀担忧， 形成流动性紧缩，市场风险偏好大幅度走低。 宏观策略（股指期货） 避险情绪升级，A 股放量下跌 综 伊朗战争形势逐渐外溢，市场担忧战争形势失控，风险资产大 幅下杀。同时由于对通胀的担忧导致加息交易有所冒头。市场 当前交易逻辑混乱，我们仍建议以避险为主，适当减仓。 合 宏观策略（国债期货） 晨 央行 2 月公开市场国债买卖净投放 500 亿元 报 滞胀压力若上升，债市难以走出单边行情，极限点位有交易反 向逻辑而反转的可能，建议关注波段操作机会。 黑色金属（螺纹钢/热轧卷板） 全国政协十四届四次会议 4 日下午开幕，会期 7 天 虽然有地缘政治因素扰动，能源价格大幅上涨，但钢价延续弱 势震荡格局，核心依然在于基本面的压制。预计终端需求实质 性改善前，短期钢价依然难有明显驱动。 能源化工（甲醇） 卡塔尔能源公司停止甲醇生产 预计短期甲醇期货 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Market Implications - The nomination of Waller as Fed Chair may signal a new era for the central bank, fundamentally reshaping investor risk expectations [1] - The long-standing reliance on the Fed's liquidity support is facing significant challenges, indicating a substantial reduction in future tolerance for market errors [1] - Waller has criticized the Fed's balance sheet expansion, advocating for a structural reduction of the current $6.6 trillion balance sheet, suggesting that liquidity support should only be a crisis response rather than a routine operation [1][3] Group 2: Market Reactions and Sector Performance - The tech sector is under pressure, with software stocks dropping approximately 25% this year, reflecting concerns over competition and the sustainability of existing revenue streams [4] - The ongoing weakness in digital assets, with Bitcoin down over 50% since last October, has negatively impacted risk sentiment across various asset classes [5] - Despite sector-specific volatility, the overall macroeconomic fundamentals in the U.S. remain robust, with cyclical stocks performing well and strong earnings reported by tech companies [6] Group 3: Liquidity and Debt Concerns - Waller's potential push for accelerated quantitative tightening could lead to a loss of bank reserves and tighter collateral conditions, increasing the risk of liquidity shortages and potentially limiting credit supply [3][7] - The shift in the Fed's approach may lead to higher systemic risks, especially if liquidity tightens while facing external or internal shocks [7] - Major cloud companies are ramping up capital expenditures significantly, with projected spending exceeding $600 billion by 2026, raising investor concerns about return on investment [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the recent sharp decline in tin prices is driven by multiple negative factors, including macroeconomic pressures from the Federal Reserve's hawkish policies and a strong US dollar, which have weakened the attractiveness of dollar-denominated commodities [1][2] - The domestic market is experiencing a significant drop in tin prices, with the main contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) showing a decrease of 12.38%, reflecting a broader trend of weak demand and high inventory levels [1][2] - The geopolitical situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has eased, leading to a reduction in speculative trading around tin supply, which has contributed to the recent price drop [1][2] Group 2 - The current market is expected to enter a phase of low-level fluctuations, with the core trading range for the SHFE main contract projected between 375,000 and 390,000 yuan per ton, indicating a search for short-term balance [3] - Key indicators for a market turnaround include potential adjustments in the US dollar index and improvements in spot market transactions, while medium-term recovery will depend on post-holiday restocking demand and actual supply reductions [3] - The market is currently in a critical phase of panic emotion release and reassessment of fundamentals, with long-term trends requiring significant inventory reduction or fundamental changes in monetary policy from the Federal Reserve [3]

Group 1: Market Reactions - Spot gold has seen a significant decline, with a drop of 7% to $4533.41 per ounce, while spot silver has decreased by 13% to $73.143 per ounce [1] - The market reacted sharply to the nomination of Kevin Walsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, leading to a historic drop in gold prices, which fell by 9.25%, marking the largest single-day decline in 40 years [5][6] - The dollar index rebounded significantly following the announcement, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards a tightening monetary policy [5] Group 2: Commodity Price Movements - The main copper futures contract hit the limit down, falling by 9.01% to 98,580 yuan per ton, while international copper futures also dropped by 9% to 87,250 yuan per ton [4] - Aluminum futures also experienced a limit down, decreasing by 7% to 21,840 yuan per ton, and SC crude oil futures fell by 7.02% to 449 yuan per barrel [4] - The WTI crude oil price dropped by 5.67% to $61.51, while ICE Brent crude fell by 5.48% to $65.52, reflecting a broader trend of declining commodity prices [3][7] Group 3: Economic Implications - The market's sensitivity to Walsh's nomination is attributed to his criticism of excessive quantitative easing and support for balance sheet reduction, which may curb narratives around dollar devaluation [6] - Analysts suggest that the recent volatility in precious metals is more indicative of a deleveraging and liquidity tightening environment rather than a clear macroeconomic revaluation [6] - The strengthening dollar has made oil more expensive for non-U.S. buyers, contributing to the recent declines in oil prices [7]

Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a new round of policy turbulence as the leadership transition at the Federal Reserve approaches, with concerns over Kevin Warsh's potential nomination impacting Bitcoin prices significantly [1][4]. Group 1: Market Reaction - Bitcoin's price dropped to nearly $81,000, reflecting traders' concerns about Warsh's historical stance on monetary discipline and liquidity tightening [1][4]. - The market attributes the recent downturn to Warsh's "inflation hawk" label, which has raised fears among crypto investors about future high real interest rates [4]. Group 2: Policy Implications - Warsh's policy framework categorizes cryptocurrencies as high-risk speculative assets rather than safe-haven investments, suggesting that the cheap capital environment supporting the crypto market may quickly vanish under his leadership [4][5]. - There is a significant misalignment between Warsh's monetary policy stance and President Trump's expectations, which could exacerbate macroeconomic uncertainty and lead to risk capital withdrawal before the nomination is finalized [2][4]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The recent sharp decline has brought Bitcoin into a critical defensive zone, with a potential test of the psychological support level at $80,000 if panic-driven sentiment persists [5]. - Despite the Federal Reserve's rate decisions being made collectively, Warsh's strong monetary views could undermine confidence in crypto assets in the short term, leading to continued volatility until the nomination is confirmed [5].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the precious metals market, specifically gold and silver, amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and liquidity issues in London [3][4]. Gold Market Insights - Gold prices have surged above $5,000 per ounce due to increased safe haven demand driven by geopolitical tensions and rising Japanese bond yields [3]. - The current price levels are viewed as uncertain for tactical investors, with potential for a temporary retracement or further price increases depending on geopolitical and fiscal developments [3]. - The long-term outlook for gold remains positive, with a forecast of $5,400 per ounce by December 2026, supported by central bank buying and increased investor demand as the Federal Reserve eases monetary policy [3]. - There is a significant upside risk to the gold forecast, particularly if private investors increase their gold ETF purchases [3]. Silver Market Insights - Silver prices have increased by 51% year-to-date and have surpassed $100 per ounce, continuing a strong rally from 2025 when prices rose by 138% [3]. - The price volatility is expected to persist due to ongoing liquidity squeezes in London, which affect benchmark prices [3][4]. - Speculation regarding U.S. trade policy, particularly potential tariffs on silver, has led to pre-positioning of metal in the U.S., reducing available inventory in London and contributing to price swings [3]. - Although U.S. tariffs on silver are considered unlikely, policy uncertainty remains high, which could prolong the liquidity squeeze and lead to further price fluctuations [4]. Additional Considerations - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring geopolitical and fiscal developments as they can significantly impact precious metal prices [3]. - Investors are advised to remain cautious, especially those averse to volatility, given the potential for extreme price swings in both gold and silver [3]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and forecasts regarding the precious metals market, highlighting the factors influencing price movements and the outlook for investors.

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the emergence of a "New World Order = New World Bull Market" driven by global fiscal expansion under Trump's leadership, with a bullish outlook on gold and silver, while highlighting risks associated with the rapid appreciation of East Asian currencies [2][3]. Group 1: Global Market Dynamics - Hartnett believes that the market is entering a phase of global rebalancing, moving away from American exceptionalism, with international stocks being favored [3]. - The article notes that since 2020, U.S. stock funds have seen inflows of $1.6 trillion, while global funds have only attracted $0.4 trillion, indicating a significant imbalance that is expected to correct [3]. Group 2: Investment Recommendations - Hartnett recommends going long on international stocks and assets related to economic recovery, particularly favoring small and mid-cap stocks, homebuilders, retail, and transportation sectors [12]. - The article suggests that gold is expected to break the historical high of $6,000, with a current allocation of only 0.6% among high-net-worth clients, indicating potential for significant price appreciation [8][10]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Risks - The article highlights that the sustainability of the optimistic outlook depends on the U.S. unemployment rate remaining low and Trump's ability to lower living costs to improve his approval ratings [12][15]. - A major risk identified is the potential rapid appreciation of the Japanese yen, South Korean won, and New Taiwan dollar, which could lead to a tightening of global liquidity [16][18]. Group 4: Geopolitical Context - China is identified as a key market, with the end of deflation expected to catalyze bull markets in Japan and Europe [4]. - The stability of Middle Eastern markets, such as the Tehran Stock Exchange's 65% increase since last August, is seen as a positive signal for global oil supply and market conditions [4].

Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market is experiencing increased volatility, with significant divergence in opinions regarding Ethereum's (ETH) ability to break through its bottleneck by 2026. While some investors remain optimistic about its long-term value, mainstream analysis generally adopts a cautious stance [1][2]. Market Dynamics - Bitcoin's current weakness is identified as the primary obstacle for Ethereum. As Bitcoin is viewed as a market barometer, its continued bearish trend makes it difficult for Ethereum to establish an independent market trajectory [3]. - Analyst Peter Brandt predicts that Bitcoin may fall to the $60,000 range by the third quarter of 2026, which adds to the pressure on Ethereum [3]. Price Recovery Challenges - For Ethereum to return to its historical peak of $4,878, it would need to achieve over a 40% increase from its current level of approximately $2,898, a challenging feat in a tightening liquidity environment [3][4]. Market Structure Evolution - The "refinement" process in the altcoin market is accelerating, with Ethereum showing more resilience than other tokens. However, without a broader bull market effect, the sustainability of price increases for individual cryptocurrencies is questionable [2][4]. Investment Strategy Recommendations - RadexMarkets advises investors to remain calm in the face of potential rebounds. Although there is a possibility of returning to previous highs in the short term, each price increase should be viewed as a critical window for risk management until macro fundamentals improve [4].

Core Viewpoint - The current volatility in global stock, bond, currency, and precious metal markets indicates a highly concentrated expectation and liquidity, with a potential end to the era of ultra-loose monetary policy, as highlighted by the BIS warning [1][3]. Market Trends - As of December 8, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 2.92 basis points to 4.164%, nearing the 4.2% mark, with long-term yields in Japan and Germany also reaching new highs [1]. - The three major U.S. stock indices fell for the third consecutive trading day, with the S&P 500 index down 2.1% from its November peak [1]. - The U.S. dollar index increased by 0.12% to 99.10, while most non-U.S. currencies faced downward pressure [1]. - International precious metal futures generally declined, with COMEX gold futures down 0.54% to $4219.90 per ounce and COMEX silver futures down 0.94% to $58.50 per ounce [1]. Federal Reserve Expectations - Market focus is on the Federal Reserve's December meeting, with an 84.8% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is only 15.2% [3]. - The anticipated rate cut may not signify the expected easing but could represent a tightening signal due to distorted market price signals [3]. Employment Data Impact - The U.S. ADP employment data for November showed a decrease of 32,000 jobs, the largest drop since March 2023, significantly below the expected increase of 40,000 jobs, with small businesses being the hardest hit [4][6]. Analyst Revisions - Following the weak employment data, major Wall Street firms like JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley have revised their forecasts, with Standard Chartered explicitly changing its prediction from "maintaining rates" to "a 25 basis point cut" [6]. - Nomura Securities has also adjusted its reports to support the rate cut, acknowledging previous misinterpretations of Fed Chair Powell's hawkish signals [6]. Market Pricing and Future Projections - The market has already priced in the rate cut, indicating that the anticipated easing may lack additional positive impact, leading to a focus on the 2026 policy path [7]. - The internal division within the Federal Reserve regarding hawkish and dovish stances is becoming more pronounced, with potential voting outcomes indicating a split [7]. - Analysts predict a rare voting pattern of "4 hawkish dissenting votes + 1 dovish dissenting vote" during the upcoming rate decision [7]. Economic Outlook - The National Association for Business Economics (NABE) survey indicates an upward revision of the median growth forecast for the U.S. economy in 2026 to 2%, with inflation expected to decrease to 2.6% and unemployment rising to 4.5% [10]. - The anticipated tightening of monetary policy is reflected in the bond market, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising by 26 basis points since late November [13]. - The stock market, particularly the S&P 500, has shown declines despite rising rate cut expectations, indicating concerns over liquidity tightening [13]. Liquidity Conditions - Recent trends in the U.S. repo market show tightening liquidity, with the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) reaching a high of 4.5% [15]. - The market's perception of liquidity measures as "countering liquidity shortages" rather than "active easing" reinforces the notion that a lack of incremental easing equates to tightening [15].

Core Viewpoint - The gold market experienced a significant drop of $100, entering a short-term adjustment phase, but the overall bullish sentiment remains intact, with a rebound observed as it attempts to reclaim the 4200 level [1][12]. Market Movements - The gold price fell to 4163 before staging a comeback [5] - A strong rebound brought the price back above 4200, surpassing 4220 [6] - The market is now targeting the resistance level at 4244 [7] - A further breakthrough could see the price approach the 4300 resistance level [8] - If the price encounters resistance at 4244 again, it may face downward adjustments, potentially revisiting the 4200 level [9][10] Influencing Factors - Investors took profits, leading to a significant drop in gold prices, compounded by warnings from the OECD regarding global central bank debt, which may signal the end of the interest rate cut cycle and tighter monetary policies, negatively impacting gold [13] - Political pressures, including Trump's criticism of the Federal Reserve and potential changes in leadership, have contributed to a weaker dollar, while military actions have led to a rebound in gold prices [14] Upcoming Events - The release of the ADP employment report is anticipated to impact market expectations and could lead to significant fluctuations in gold prices [15] - Economic data from September and November is expected to influence the strength of the dollar and the volatility of gold [15] Risk Management and Strategy - Emphasis on the importance of accurately determining entry and exit points for gold investments, which requires extensive practical experience [15] - The company claims a high accuracy rate of 85% in gold trading, with strategies aimed at minimizing risk while maximizing profit potential [15]