展望未来，金瑞期货表示，短期贵金属价格仍将保持偏强，但预计市场波动将同步放大，建议维持逢低 做多策略。 北京时间10月9日，国际现货白银价格加速上涨，历史首次突破50美元/盎司。Wind数据显示，截至北京 时间20:47，伦敦现货白银涨超2%，最高触及50.159美元/盎司。 金瑞期货表示，今日金银价格上涨主要是由两个因素驱动。一是美联储降息预期持续发酵。美联储公布 的9月议息会议纪要显示，联储官员多数支持今年四季度继续降息。降息预期的落地，将会继续推动美 元与美债利率的走弱，利好金银价格。二是近期美国政府停摆、法国政局动荡、国际贸易局势仍存不确 定性、美联储独立性受到挑战、多国主权债务问题恶化等因素推动避险情绪的发酵，同样对贵金属价格 构成利好。 ...

（文章来源：21世纪经济报道） 9月26日，国际白银价格强势上行，伦敦现货白银突破46美元/盎司，最高触及46.62美元/盎司，创下自 2010年以来的14年新高。在过去六个月内，现货白银累计涨幅已超过30%，表现远超多数大宗商品，年 内涨幅更是达到59%，也超过黄金的43%涨幅。 除了白银，铂金近期表现亦十分抢眼。9月27日，伦敦现货铂金大涨2.5%，最高触及1584美元/盎司大 关，创下2012年以来新高，单周涨幅更是超过11.5%。 ...

宁证期货：降息兑现前，白银震荡偏多 美国零售销售数据环比依然正增长，提升美国风险偏好，利多白银。市场目前交易未来连续降息的次数 和降息的总幅度。降息兑现前，白银震荡偏多，降息兑现后或走预期兑现行情。关注黄金的波动对白银 的影响。 机构 核心观点 光大期货 白银跟随金价涨跌，有继续上涨的预期 宁证期货 降息兑现前，白银震荡偏多 兴业期货 白银处于多头格局中 光大期货：白银跟随金价涨跌，有继续上涨的预期 隔夜伦敦现货黄金冲高回落，盘中价格再创历史新高，现货白银表现谨慎，尾盘收跌；金银比降至86.7 附近。美国8月零售销售环比增0.6%，连续三个月超预期增长，实际零售销售连续11个月增长，经济韧 性凸显。另外，美众院共和党人提出短期支出议案避免政府关门，缓解市场避险情绪。美联储议息将 至，黄金市场表现依然强势，表明市场对年内降息次数和幅度有所期待，但政策预期变幻莫测，依然要 谨慎对待，谨防短线利多落地后的市场大幅波动，周内余下时间走势上则具有较高不确定性。白银则跟 随金价涨跌，有继续上涨的预期，但也要关注短线波动风险，追高风险较大，维系逢低买入的策略。 9月17日盘中，沪银期货主力合约遭遇一波急速下挫，最低下探至9 ...

Group 1 - International gold prices have reached new historical highs, with COMEX gold futures surpassing $3600 per ounce and spot gold exceeding $3545 per ounce, marking a continuous rise for seven trading days [1] - Silver futures also hit historical highs, with COMEX silver reaching $41.99 per ounce, the highest level since 2012 [1] - Domestic gold and silver contracts in China have shown significant increases, with the main contract for silver reaching 9824 yuan per kilogram, up 2.33%, and gold at 814.88 yuan per gram, up 1.31% [1] Group 2 - The anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are seen as a major factor driving gold prices higher, with market expectations for a rate cut in September contributing to a weaker dollar and increased gold attractiveness [1][2] - Several institutions have raised their gold price targets, with Morgan Stanley projecting $3800 per ounce by year-end and Bank of America forecasting $4000 per ounce by mid-2026 [2] - A-share gold concept stocks have performed strongly, with companies like Zhaojin Mining and Western Gold seeing significant price increases, and the overall performance of gold ETFs in the domestic market has been robust [2] Group 3 - The ongoing rise in gold prices is expected to improve the profit outlook for gold companies, sustaining the bullish market and enhancing company valuations [3] - Western Gold reported a 69.01% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first half of the year, reaching 5.03 billion yuan, and a 131.94% increase in net profit, amounting to 154 million yuan [3] - Analysts suggest that the current market conditions may lead to a reallocation of funds back into gold, driven by the Federal Reserve's signals of potential rate cuts [3]

Group 1 - International gold prices have reached a new historical high, with COMEX gold hitting $3552.4 per ounce, surpassing the previous peak of $3534.1 set in early August [1] - In August, international precious metals showed strong performance, with gold increasing by 4.78% and silver rising by 8.12%, closing at $3446.805 and $39.67 per ounce respectively [2] - COMEX silver prices also surged, reaching $41.480 per ounce, marking a new record [3] Group 2 - The recent rise in gold and silver prices is attributed to various factors, primarily driven by risk aversion and speculation regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [4][5] - The expectation of a more accommodative monetary policy from the Federal Reserve has increased the likelihood of a rate cut in September, leading to a decline in the dollar index and a subsequent rise in gold prices [5] - The industrial demand for silver is projected to exceed 55%, particularly due to its applications in the renewable energy and electronics sectors, contributing to upward price pressure [5] Group 3 - Short-term forecasts suggest that precious metal prices may remain strong due to increasing expectations of further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and rising geopolitical uncertainties [6] - Technical analysis indicates that COMEX gold may target the $3550 region, while COMEX silver could face resistance around $42 [6] - Market volatility is influenced by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy changes and geopolitical tensions, with a focus on upcoming employment statistics and the Fed's policy meeting [7]

近期，国际贵金属市场表现活跃，伦敦现货黄金价格一度回升至3400美元/盎司上方，而伦敦现货 白银价格更是创下逾13年来新高。与此同时，金银比价从100以上的高位回落至91附近，表明白银近期 走势明显强于黄金。 Wind数据显示，截至北京时间6月17日19时40分，伦敦现货黄金与伦敦现货白银比价为91.6，5月23 日该比价为100.28。 "此次白银价格异动本质上是市场对前期过度低估的定价进行修复。"正信期货首席宏观分析师蒲祖 林分析称，此前金银比价突破100的历史高位，反映出避险资金过度集中于黄金市场，同时市场过分强 调白银的工业属性而忽视其金融属性。6月以来，随着国际贸易形势改善和美联储降息预期升温，被低 估的白银市场迎来价值重估，价格出现快速补涨，金银比价因此回落。 从估值角度看，国信期货首席分析师顾冯达表示，当前金银比价虽有所回落，但仍显著高于60-80 的历史均值区间，表明白银相对黄金仍具估值优势，后市金银比价或继续向下修复。 可作为黄金市场的补充 业内人士表示，近期白银价格的强势表现主要受到两方面因素推动：一是国际贸易环境改善，二是 市场对美联储降息预期升温，带动资金加速流入白银市场。尽管白银的避 ...

Report Title - Weekly Report on Precious Metals (AU, AG): Safe-Haven Demand Cools, Pressuring Gold and Silver [1] Report Date - July 28, 2025 [2] Report Author - Bai Suna [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - With Trump announcing trade agreements with more countries, global trade tensions ease, reducing safe-haven demand and pressuring precious metal prices. Monitor the progress of US-EU negotiations and China-US-Sweden economic and trade talks, and beware of tariff policy fluctuations as the August 1 tariff suspension period ends [5] - The ECB kept interest rates unchanged in July and the probability of a September rate cut decreased, indicating the end of the ECB's easing cycle. The Fed is also likely to keep rates unchanged in July, temporarily suppressing precious metal prices. Trump's pressure on the Fed to cut rates continues, but the dollar credit risk is alleviated, weakening gold's short-term upward drive. However, the probability of a Fed rate cut in September is over 60%, providing medium-term support for gold prices. Focus on key US economic data this week [5] - In the first half of the week, the commodity trading limit-up atmosphere boosted Shanghai silver to break through the 9,500 yuan/kg mark. But as gold weakened and commodities tumbled on Friday night, silver prices were dragged down. As the irrational commodity rally subsides, silver's short-term resilience may weaken, and it is expected to return to fundamental logic in the medium term [5] - Strategy: Buy gold on dips; stay on the sidelines for silver [5] - Long-term view: Bullish. With the Fed likely to cut rates in the second half of the year, global geopolitical tensions remaining complex, de-globalization intensifying, and the weakening of the US dollar credit, central banks will continue to be net buyers of gold, providing long-term support for gold prices [5] Summary by Directory 1. Market and Fundamental Indicator Tracking Gold and Silver Prices and Gold-Silver Ratio - London spot gold was at $3,336.22/oz, down $13.435 (-0.40%) from the previous week; Shanghai gold futures were at 777.32 yuan/g, up 0.3 yuan (0.04%) [4] - London spot silver was at $38.137/oz, down $0.01 (-0.03%) from the previous week; Shanghai silver futures were at 9,392 yuan/kg, up 119 yuan (1.28%) [4] - SHFE gold-silver ratio was 82.76, down 1.03 (-1.23%) from the previous week [4] ETF and CFTC Positions - Gold SPDR-ETF holdings were 957.09 tons, up 13.47 tons (1.43%) from the previous week [4] - COMEX gold non-commercial net long positions (lagging one week) were 253,038 contracts, up 39,923 contracts (18.73%) from the previous week [4] - Silver SLV-ETF holdings were 15,230 tons, up 572 tons (3.90%) from the previous week [4] - COMEX silver non-commercial net long positions (lagging one week) were 60,620 contracts, up 1,172 contracts (1.97%) from the previous week [4] Inventory Data - SHFE gold inventory was 30.258 tons, up 1.4 tons (4.85%) from the previous week; COMEX gold inventory was 1,174.54 tons, up 17.74 tons (1.53%) from the previous week [4] - SHFE silver inventory was 1,187 tons, down 23.82 tons (-1.97%) from the previous week; COMEX silver inventory was 15,562 tons, up 95.7 tons (0.62%) from the previous week; SGE silver inventory (lagging one week) was 1,312 tons, down 15.21 tons (-1.15%) from the previous week [4] 2. Main Macroeconomic Indicator Tracking Exchange Rates and Interest Rates - The US dollar index was 97.6701, down 0.7899 (-0.80%) from the previous week; the US dollar against the offshore RMB was 7.1681, down 0.0129 (-0.18%) from the previous week [4] - The 2-year US Treasury yield was 3.9275%, up 0.0647 (1.67%) from the previous week; the 10-year US Treasury yield was 4.3878%, down 0.0217 (-0.49%) from the previous week; the US 10-year real interest rate was 1.96%, down 0.07 (-3.45%) from the previous week [4] Economic Data - The US first-quarter GDP growth rate unexpectedly contracted; the consumer confidence index improved for the first time in half a year [59] - The US manufacturing PMI and service PMI were better than expected; the US retail sales data showed positive trends [60] - The US June non-farm payrolls were higher than expected, and the unemployment rate declined [66] - Inflation in the US rebounded slightly, but inflation expectations cooled [73] - The eurozone GDP bottomed out and rebounded; the eurozone manufacturing PMI rebounded, while the service PMI declined [82] Central Bank Gold Purchases - The People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves for the eighth consecutive month, with 73.9 million ounces at the end of June, a month-on-month increase of 700,000 ounces (about 2.18 tons) [91] - Global central banks remained net buyers of gold. In the first quarter of 2025, global central banks and other institutions net-purchased 243.7 tons of gold, a year-on-year decrease of about 21.4%. Despite the decline in the first quarter, the overall performance remained strong, and global central banks were expected to continue net-purchasing gold [91]

6月份以来，国际白银价格走势强劲，推动国内沪银期价持续攀升。沪银期货主力7月合约已创出历史新高，月内大涨近300元/千克。数据显示，沪银总沉淀 资金已逼近390亿元，较月初增长约60亿元，成为商品期货资金量排名第三的品种。 来源：金融界 资金沉淀规模持续扩大 文华财经最新数据显示，目前沪银总沉淀资金已逼近390亿元，较月初的330亿元增长约60亿元。这一资金规模仅次于沪金的930亿元、沪铜的403亿元，位居 商品期货第三位。作为黄金的补充避险资产，白银同样受到资金的持续青睐。 今年以来沪银总沉淀资金呈现稳中有增状态，年初总沉淀资金量仅为180亿元，一季度末涨至270亿元。目前距离400亿元大关仅一步之遥，显示出市场对白 银期货的关注度不断提升。与纯粹的货币属性黄金不同，白银具有双重属性，既是金融资产，也是工业原料。作为工业原料，白银在清洁能源技术中扮演关 键角色，特别是太阳能电池板制造的核心材料，需求持续增长。 白银的工业属性为其价格上涨提供了坚实的基本面支撑。近期美国公布的多项宏观数据表现不佳，市场对美联储降息预期迅速发酵，对白银和铂金等工业属 性更强的贵金属产生了利好驱动。全球最大白银ETF持仓较上日增加 ...

Group 1 - Silver and platinum prices have surged, with silver reaching a high of $36.263 per ounce, the highest since February 2012, and platinum hitting $1172.59 per ounce, the highest in nearly two years [1][2] - Year-to-date, silver has increased by approximately 24% and platinum by 28%, comparable to gold's performance [1] - The rise in precious metals is attributed to geopolitical tensions, fluctuating tariff policies, and recovering demand, alongside technical factors driving price increases [1][2] Group 2 - The gold-silver ratio reached a historical high of 106 when gold prices surged to $3500 per ounce, prompting hedge funds to shift positions from gold to silver [2] - Historical trends indicate that when the gold-silver ratio exceeds 80, silver has a 70% probability of experiencing a price increase, with expectations of returning to a more reasonable range of 60-70 [2] - Strong physical silver demand from India and recovering platinum demand from China are contributing to the market's upward momentum [2][3] Group 3 - Economic recovery is expected to significantly boost industrial demand for silver, which is essential in various sectors such as electronics, photovoltaics, and automotive manufacturing [3] - Silver's role in clean energy technologies provides a solid fundamental support for its price increase [3] - Current market analysis suggests that silver's upward trend is likely to continue until a significant risk event disrupts the price trajectory [3]

新华财经北京6月5日电 北京时间周四下午，国际白银价格大幅上涨。截至发稿，伦敦现货白银上涨 3.48%，报35.67美元／盎司，刷新2012年2月以来新高；COMEX白银期货上涨3.63%，报35.91美元／盎 司。 继2024年国际金价上涨超26%后，今年金价迎来更强势的上涨，4月中旬以前，国际金价一路势如破 竹，连续创出历史新高，而白银价格则相对偏偏弱，导致金银比连续上涨。4月22日COMEX黄金一度 突破3500美元／盎司后回落调整至今，今日白银价格大幅上涨，金银比有望迎来修复。 据外媒报道，特朗普政府宣布将钢铝关税从25%提高至50%之后，白银迎来了强势上涨。因为这一消息 令市场预期美国政府可能会对其他关键金属（如白银）采取类似贸易保护措施，从而推升对白银的避险 和替代性需求。 高盛期货交易员Robert Quinn称，美国提升钢铝关税的消息引发了白银期货市场显著的多头建仓。白银 期货总持仓量激增28亿美元，为过去一年中最大的两日增幅。尽管EFP（期货与现货价差）波动较大， 但整体趋于升水，表明市场对近期现货紧张的预期增强。同时，白银价格的上涨推动了程序化趋势追踪 资金入场做多。此外，期权市场也表现出 ...