期货研究院 方正中期贵金属日度策略 Precious Metal Futures Daily Report 有色贵金属与新能源团队 | 作者： | 梁海宽 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F3064313 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0015305 | | 联系方式： | 010-68518650 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2026年03月05日星期四 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 摘要 【行情复盘】 国内贵金属市场日间探底回升，沪金主力合约上涨0.46%收于1152 .00元/克，沪银主力合约上涨1.96%收于21639元/千克。 【重要资讯】 1、美东时间1月28日，美联储联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）发布 了最新的利率决议，将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在3.5%-3.75% 不变，符合市场预期。这是美联储在2025年9月起连续三次会议降 息后首次暂停行动。鲍威尔表示如果看到"关税通胀"触顶后回落 ，将可以进一步放松政策，加息并非是任何人对下一步行动的基本 假设。1月底特朗普意外提名凯文沃什为下一任美联储主席，超出 市场预期。 2、2月11 ...

来源：上海证券报·中国证券网 上证报中国证券网讯（记者 张骄）2月27日晚间，伦敦现货白银直线拉升，站上92美元/盎司，日内涨 约5%。截至21时28分，伦敦银报92.574美元/盎司，日内涨4.87%。 上证报中国证券网讯（记者 张骄）2月27日晚间，伦敦现货白银直线拉升，站上92美元/盎司，日内涨 约5%。截至21时28分，伦敦银报92.574美元/盎司，日内涨4.87%。 来源：上海证券报·中国证券网 ...

Core Viewpoint - International crude oil prices have continued their strong performance since the Spring Festival, with Brent crude futures experiencing the highest increase in 13 years during this period, driven primarily by geopolitical tensions rather than supply-demand fundamentals [1][2]. Geopolitical Influence - The current rise in international oil prices has diverged from the oversupply fundamentals, with geopolitical factors, particularly the U.S.-Iran situation, becoming the main influence [2][3]. - Analysts suggest that the geopolitical risk premium in the oil market is currently around $1, which could rise to $4-$5 if tensions escalate, while a de-escalation could lead to a rapid price drop [2]. Historical Trends Post-Spring Festival - Historical data from 2013 to 2025 indicates that oil prices tend to have a higher potential for increase in the month following the Spring Festival, with an average increase of approximately 10.96% during the years when prices rose [2][3]. - Despite more years of price declines, the magnitude of increases in rising years significantly outweighs the declines, suggesting a favorable risk-reward ratio for price increases post-holiday [2]. Factors Affecting Oil Prices - Key supportive factors for oil prices include geopolitical uncertainties and U.S. sanctions on oil-producing countries, while global economic weakness and ongoing oversupply remain as negative factors [3]. - Historical events have shown that significant geopolitical events have a greater impact on oil prices than conventional supply-demand dynamics [3]. Commodity Cycle and Oil Price Outlook - The current global commodity cycle, characterized by rising prices in precious and industrial metals, is expected to provide upward momentum for oil prices [4][5]. - The analysis indicates that the transmission of price increases from precious metals to industrial metals and then to oil is effective, driven by liquidity improvements and economic recovery [4][5]. - Despite the unique characteristics of the current cycle, two main supportive factors for oil prices are identified: bullish market expectations and geopolitical risk premiums [5]. Short-term and Long-term Predictions - In the short term, geopolitical factors are expected to strongly influence oil prices, with potential fluctuations based on developments in U.S.-Iran relations [5]. - In the long term, historical trends suggest that oil prices may rise to the range of $75 to $80 per barrel by 2026, supported by bullish market sentiment and geopolitical risk premiums [5].

核心观点 春节假期间，海外市场主要交易的是中东地缘风险主导的避险交易与FOMC货币政策不确定性。在此背景下，主要资产价格表现如下：全球主要股指多数 上涨，韩股、法股、英股涨幅领先；除美债利率外，全球主要10年期国债收益率多数下行；全球主要大宗商品多数上涨；主要货币中日元、英镑跌幅较 大。 文：华创证券首席经济学家 张瑜 执业证号：S0360518090001 联系人：李星宇（18810112501） 报告摘要 春节假期海外要闻 主要大类资产表现 1、股市：全球主要股指多数上涨，韩股、法股、英股涨幅领先。2月16日~20日，韩国综合指数、法国CAC40、富时100、欧洲斯托克600指数、纳斯达 克、德国DAX、标普500、MSCI新兴市场指数和道琼斯分别上涨5.5%、2.5%、2.3%、2.1%、1.5%、1.4%、1.1%、1.0%、 0.8%和0.3%；恒生指数和日经 225分别下跌0.6%和0.2%。 2、债券：除美债利率外，全球主要10年期国债收益率多数下行。2月16日~20日，10年期日债、法债、英债和意债收益率分别下行6.1bps、3.8bps、2.7bps 和2.3bps；10年期美债收益率上行4 ...

截至北京时间23日9时35分，伦敦现货黄金价格报5156.59美元/盎司，上涨1.13%，现货白银价格报 87.447美元/盎司，上涨3.40%；纽约商品交易所4月交割的黄金期价报每盎司5180.52美元，涨幅为 1.96%，3月交割的白银期价报每盎司87.195美元，涨幅为5.89%。 当地时间23日，市场进一步消化特朗普政府宣布的新一轮关税政策以及美国上周五公布的经济数据。投 资者担心，在经济增长已经大幅放缓的背景下，新的关税政策将使得美国经济前景更加不明朗，叠加美 伊谈判、俄乌和谈仍存变数，贵金属市场的避险买盘操作大幅增加，国际金价和银价在23日亚洲交易时 段显著上涨，国际金价逼近5200美元/盎司整数关口。 来源：央视财经 ...

截至北京时间20日19时20分，纽约商品交易所4月交割的黄金期价报每盎司5054.00美元，涨幅为 1.13%；纽商所3月交割的白银期价报每盎司80.895美元，涨幅达4.24%；伦敦现货黄金报每盎司5031.53 美元，日内涨幅为0.61%；伦敦现货白银报每盎司80.806美元，日内涨幅达3.09%。 来源：央视财经 20日欧洲交易时段，国际金价从前一日的跌势中反弹。美国去年12月个人消费支出（PCE）价格指数当 天晚些时候将出炉，投资者提前买入黄金，为这份关键通胀数据可能低于预期的情况做准备。 此外，纽约商品交易所白银期货近月合约的未平仓数量仍然较高，表明希望在合约到期时交割白银实物 的投资者不在少数，这令市场预期白银供应将持续紧张，当天盘中白银现货与期货价格均显著上涨。 ...

当地时间18日，市场静待即将公布的美联储1月货币政策会议纪要以及美国重要通胀数据，研判美联储 货币政策走向。目前芝商所美联储观察工具显示，市场预期美联储大概率将在6月开启降息。此外，金 银价格在大幅下跌后迎来技术性反弹，叠加美伊谈判、俄乌和谈仍存变数，避险需求也在一定程度上对 贵金属价格形成支撑。 截至北京时间18日19时40分： 伦敦现货黄金价格报4914.64美元/盎司，上涨0.78%；现货白银价格报75.807美元/盎司，上涨3.15%； 纽约商品交易所4月交割的黄金期价报每盎司4936.50美元，涨幅为0.62%。3月交割的白银期价报每盎司 75.820美元，涨幅为3.10%。 来源：央视财经 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant increase in international precious metal prices, with specific gains in silver, gold, platinum, and palladium [1] - London spot silver prices rose over 4.6%, while spot gold increased by 1.8%, spot platinum by 3.2%, and spot palladium by 5.5% [1] - New York futures for silver and gold also saw increases, with silver up by 4.3% and gold by 1.6% [1]

Group 1: Market Performance - On February 13, international gold prices experienced a significant rebound after an initial drop, with London spot gold rising by 1.01% to $4973.823 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of 15.18% [1] - International silver also turned from a decline to an increase, with London spot silver up 3.48% to $77.842 per ounce, reflecting a year-to-date rise of 8.75% [1] - The previous trading day saw a sharp decline in precious metals, with spot gold briefly falling below $4900 per ounce and spot silver dropping over 11% to a low of $73.95 per ounce [1] Group 2: Historical Volatility - Since the beginning of 2026, the international precious metals market has experienced extreme volatility, with London spot gold reaching a historical high of $5594.77 per ounce on January 29, followed by a drop to $4393.49 per ounce within three trading days, resulting in a maximum fluctuation of over 20% [2] - Silver exhibited even more dramatic movements, peaking at $121.65 per ounce on January 29, reflecting a year-to-date increase of over 70%, before plummeting 35% to $73 per ounce on January 30 and further declining 20% to $70.9 per ounce on February 5 [2] Group 3: Regulatory Measures - On February 12, the Shenzhen Municipal Financial Management Bureau and ten other departments issued a public notice to further regulate gold market operations, outlining prohibited activities for enterprises, individuals, and financial institutions involved in gold-related businesses [2][3] - The notice specifies that enterprises are prohibited from engaging in illegal gold trading activities such as pre-priced transactions, leveraged trading, and deferred transactions, particularly through internet platforms [3] - It also emphasizes that individuals must not participate in illegal gold pre-priced trading, illegal fundraising under the guise of gold, or unauthorized investment activities, and should only engage in gold transactions through legitimate channels [3]

隔夜金银遭遇大规模抛售，伦敦现货白银大跌逾10%，伦敦现货黄金亦跌超3%。今日早间，金银价格有所回升。截至发稿，伦敦现货白银回升至75美元/ 盎司附近，伦敦现货黄金则回升至4940美元/盎司附近。 美股市场同样遭遇了卖盘"洗礼"。截至收盘，道指跌669.42点，跌幅1.34%，报49451.98点；纳指跌469.32点，跌幅2.03%，报22597.15点；标普500指数跌 108.71点，跌幅1.57%，报6832.76点。 北京时间2月13日交易时段，韩国股市开盘不久快速拉升。数据显示，韩国综合指数开盘跌0.16%，随后迅速拉升翻红。 国际局势方面，据新华社消息，美国总统特朗普12日称，他希望美国与伊朗在接下来"一个月左右"达成协议。随后，以色列总理内塔尼亚胡同日提出质 疑，称美国总统特朗普认为能够同伊朗达成协议，但他本人对此表示怀疑。 道指跌破5万点 美东时间周四，美股三大指数集体收跌，道指失守5万点关口。截至收盘，道指跌669.42点，跌幅1.34%，报49451.98点；纳指跌469.32点，跌幅2.03%，报 22597.15点；标普500指数跌108.71点，跌幅1.57%，报6832.76点。 ...