Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that if the upcoming PCE price index shows persistent inflation, market expectations for maintaining high interest rates for a longer period may solidify [1][2] - Economists predict that the core PCE month-on-month rate will rise from 0.2% to 0.3% [1][2] - Following the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates, market sentiment shifted, with the probability of a rate cut in September dropping from 80% to 40% [2] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's recent policy stance was anticipated, with Barclays Bank's U.S. interest rate strategy head stating that the market should focus more on the delayed start of rate cuts, expecting the first cut to occur in December [5] - Despite pressure from President Trump to lower borrowing costs, Powell emphasized that the conditions for a rate cut are not currently met due to a strong labor market and high inflation [5] - Long-term inflation expectations have risen approximately 20 basis points to 2.50% since April, as indicated by swap contracts [5] Group 3 - The impact of increased tariffs adds uncertainty to the inflation outlook, with businesses starting to pass on tariff-related costs to consumers [6] - Powell suggested that the Fed views the price increases from tariffs as potentially temporary, which may influence their decision-making [6] - The complexity of the inflation path is prompting some investors to adopt defensive strategies, such as increasing holdings in Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) [6]