Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices maintained fluctuations around $4020 after reaching a historical high of $4059.07 per ounce on October 8, driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a subsequent ceasefire agreement between Hamas and Israel, which cooled market risk aversion [1][5] - The uncertainty in U.S. economic policy, particularly the expectation of further monetary easing by the Federal Reserve, has been a core driver for the rise in gold prices, with a projected 25 basis point rate cut at the end of October and a 78% probability of another cut in December [3] - Year-to-date, gold prices have surged by 52%, significantly outperforming global stock markets, with spot gold closing at $4041.45 on October 8, reflecting strong demand for safe-haven assets amid rising interest in gold due to anticipated U.S. rate cuts [3][4] Market Dynamics - The dynamics of the U.S. bond market and foreign exchange market are closely linked to gold's price movements, with a recent increase in the 10-year Treasury yield indicating cautious investor sentiment regarding the U.S. economic outlook [4] - Geopolitical risks, including tensions in the Middle East and significant central bank purchases, have provided solid support for gold prices, with global gold ETF inflows reaching $64 billion this year, including a record $17.3 billion in September alone [4] - The recent ceasefire agreement in the Middle East has the potential to increase outflows from gold, putting downward pressure on prices if the situation stabilizes further [5] Technical Analysis - The short-term outlook for gold remains bullish, with prices recently breaking above the $4000 mark, although traders are advised to be cautious of potential short-term corrections [7] - Current trading strategies suggest entering long positions around $3970 or $3950 with specific stop-loss and target levels, while monitoring resistance around $4030 for potential short positions [7]

周四（10月9日）亚市早盘，现货黄金交投于4020美元/盎司附近，现货黄金周伞首次突破每盎司4000美 元大关，延续破纪录涨势至4059.07美元/盎司。地缘政治与经济不确定性加剧，以及市场对美国降息的 预期，促使投资者涌入避险资产；美原油交投于62美元/桶附近，油价周三创一周新高，交易商预计乌 克兰和平协议缺乏进展将使对俄罗斯的制裁继续有效。 美联储会议纪要谨慎暗示今年将进一步降息。美联储官员对利率未来走向的分歧越来越大，但多数人认 为，今年有必要进一步降息。周三公布的美联储9月会议纪要显示，委员会正在努力应对相互矛盾的经 济信号，并在顽固的通胀和疲软的劳动力市场哪个是最紧迫的问题上难以达成共识。会议纪要显示，美 联储官员一致认为，鉴于近期疲弱的就业数据，有必要降息一次，但对于未来路径官员产生分歧。不 过，会议纪要显示，"大多数人认为，在今年剩余时间里进一步放松政策可能是合适的。"然而，一些政 策制定者"指出，从若干指标来看，金融状况表明货币政政策并非特别具有限制性，他们认为有必要采 取谨慎的态度"。根据9月份的预测，10名美联储官员暗示，他们预计今年还会再降息两次，9人认为应 该会降息一次或更少。 黄金需 ...