投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20260108 联系人 李婷、黄蕾 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 主要品种观点 宏观：美国 12 月服务业 PMI 回升，A 股上涨动能回落 海外方面，12 月美国 ADP 就业人数由负转正，但低于预期，叠加 11 月 JOLTS 职位空 缺降至一年多低点、职位空缺数四年来首次低于失业人数，显示招聘放缓、劳动力需求系统 性走弱的趋势仍在延续；但与此同时，12 月 ISM 服务业 PMI 升至一年多新高 54.4，新订单 显著回升，带动服务业就业出现阶段性修复，且价格涨幅放缓，表明需求回暖尚未引发通胀 反弹。整体而言，美国就业降温主线未改，但服务业韧性对冲下行压力。美股涨跌不一，美 元指数回升至 98.7，金属上涨动能暂缓，金银铜及其他金属均不同程度下跌，美国扣押与委 内瑞拉关联的俄籍油轮，油价延续调整。 国内方面，周三 A 股宽幅震荡、放量收涨，上证指数冲击 4100 点关口受阻，收于 4085 点，显示上行动能边际趋弱；宽基指数结构分化，上证 50、沪深 300 收跌，科创 50、中证 1000 占优，半导体、煤炭等板块领涨，两 ...

来源：金十数据 周二，美国国债市场对美国干预委内瑞拉的反应显得有气无力——交易员们更关注繁忙的日历周期，其 中包括周五将发布的美国2025年12月非农就业报告。 自去年政府停摆结束后发布的2025年10月和11月非农就业报告以来，债券市场投资者一直在等待美国劳 工统计局发布一系列清晰可靠的劳动力市场数据。蒙特利尔银行资本市场（BMO Capital Markets）的策 略师认为，周五的就业数据或许足以重振投资者信心。 根据经济学家的预测中值，预计美国经济上月新增了7.3万个就业岗位，高于11月的6.4万个，同时失业 率预计将从之前的4.6%降至4.5%。ADP的私营部门就业报告（"小非农"）将于周三出炉，比政府数据 早两天，但通常不被视为可靠的前瞻指标。另外，美国最高法院可能在周五——即12月非农发布的同一 天——就特朗普全球关税的合法性作出裁决，这同样可能对市场产生一定影响。 "利率和信用工具的交易取决于美国增长、通胀以及美联储下一步的行动，"德克萨斯州普莱诺的 Wisdom Fixed Income Management投资组合经理文森特·安（Vincent Ahn）表示。"这就是为什么像周五 就业报告 ...

现货金银周二上涨，此前美国对委内瑞拉的打击增加了 黄金的避险吸引力。现货黄金上涨0.4%至4466 美元/盎司，现货 白银一度上涨3%，逼近79美元/盎司。德国Heraeus Metals贵金属交易员Alexander Zumpfe称："委内瑞拉的局势显然重新激活了避险需求。"Zumpfe补充称："如果地缘政治紧张局势进一 步扩大，或者如果即将公布的美国数据强化了美联储将不得不采取比目前预期更激进的宽松政策的预 期，那么黄金很可能再次朝着刷新纪录迈进。"市场正在等待周五的美国12月非农就业数据。白银在 2025年飙升147%，得益于被指定为美国重要矿产，以及需求增长带来的结构性市场短缺。 ...

智通财经 与此同时，COMEX黄金在相继突破4500美元/盎司、4510美元/盎司、4520美元/盎司关口后有所回落， 截至发稿报4507.8美元/盎司，涨0.5%。 12月22日，现货黄金站上4400美元/盎司。周一美股交易时段，国际黄金、白银价格加速上涨，COMEX 黄金期货大涨2.13%，报4480.6美元/盎司；COMEX白银期货大涨2.37%，报69.09美元/盎司，势将创下 1979年以来的最大年度涨幅。 受此影响，国内品牌金饰价格纷纷上涨，多家品牌金饰克价站上1400元。周大福、周生生足金饰品价格 上调至1403元/克，老庙黄金足金饰品价格也上调至1402元/克。 | | | | 品牌 | 银行 | 回收 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品牌 | | | 价格(元/克) | 日涨跌幅 | | 周大福 | | | 1403 | +2.56 | | 老凤祥 | | | 1399 | +2.49 | | 周六福 | | | 1319 | +0.53 | | 周生生 | | | 1403 | +2.63 | | 六福珠宝 | | | 1366 | +0.5 ...

汇率、股市与扩大内需 20251222 摘要 Q&A 最近人民币汇率走强，但股市表现较弱，这种"汇强股弱"的现象在历史上并 不常见。请问这种背离现象的原因是什么？未来谁会向谁收敛？ 最近人民币汇率走强，而股市表现较弱，这种"汇强股弱"的组合在历史上确 实比较少见，通常只出现在很短的阶段性时期。这种背离现象可能与多方面因 素有关。首先，从宏观经济数据来看，美国最近公布的非农就业数据和 CPI 数 据对市场产生了显著影响。非农就业数据虽然整体好于预期，但失业率提升和 工资增速回落，使得美联储降息预期得以维持。而 11 月份 CPI 数据的大幅回 落，尽管存在统计上的问题，也进一步强化了市场对美联储宽松政策的预期。 从国内因素来看，人民币升值主要是因为美元走软以及中国经济基本面的相对 稳定。然而，股市表现疲弱则反映出投资者对国内经济增长前景和企业盈利能 力的担忧。特别是消费板块，由于基本面疲软，即使政策信号有所增强，但市 场信心仍不足。 未来，股市和汇率之间可能会出现一定程度的收敛。如果国内 政策能够有效刺激内需和消费，并且全球经济环境保持稳定，那么股市有望逐 步企稳并反弹。同时，如果美国新任美联储主席采取更为宽松 ...

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market has experienced a strong breakout, with significant price increases in gold and silver, driven by policy expectations and geopolitical risks [1][2]. Market Performance - New York gold futures rose by 2.8% to $4122 per ounce, marking a two-week high; Shanghai gold also increased by 2.23% to 944.76 yuan per gram [1]. - New York silver futures surged by 4.51% to $50.311 per ounce, while Shanghai silver rose by 3.09% to 11868 yuan per kilogram, indicating strong upward momentum [1]. Market Drivers - The U.S. government shutdown discussions have resumed with positive signals from both parties in the Senate, boosting market risk sentiment [1]. - Diverging views among Federal Reserve officials regarding interest rate policies are contributing to market uncertainty, with some advocating for a cautious approach while others support maintaining a dovish stance [1]. - The latest data shows the U.S. consumer confidence index dropped to a two-year low of 50.3, while inflation expectations remain high at 4.7%, reinforcing expectations for continued accommodative policies from the Federal Reserve [1]. Central Bank Activity - Global central banks are increasing gold purchases, providing solid support for the market; China's central bank has increased its gold holdings for 12 consecutive months [1]. - The World Gold Council reported that global central banks net purchased 220 tons of gold in the third quarter, a 28% increase compared to the previous quarter [1]. Short-term Outlook - The precious metals market is expected to maintain a strong oscillating trend driven by policy expectations and geopolitical risks [2]. - Technically, if New York gold stabilizes around the $4100 level, the next resistance may be around $4150; silver could aim for $52 if it holds above the $50 mark [2]. - There remains uncertainty regarding the U.S. government shutdown resolution, which could impact market sentiment [2].

Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices maintained fluctuations around $4020 after reaching a historical high of $4059.07 per ounce on October 8, driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a subsequent ceasefire agreement between Hamas and Israel, which cooled market risk aversion [1][5] - The uncertainty in U.S. economic policy, particularly the expectation of further monetary easing by the Federal Reserve, has been a core driver for the rise in gold prices, with a projected 25 basis point rate cut at the end of October and a 78% probability of another cut in December [3] - Year-to-date, gold prices have surged by 52%, significantly outperforming global stock markets, with spot gold closing at $4041.45 on October 8, reflecting strong demand for safe-haven assets amid rising interest in gold due to anticipated U.S. rate cuts [3][4] Market Dynamics - The dynamics of the U.S. bond market and foreign exchange market are closely linked to gold's price movements, with a recent increase in the 10-year Treasury yield indicating cautious investor sentiment regarding the U.S. economic outlook [4] - Geopolitical risks, including tensions in the Middle East and significant central bank purchases, have provided solid support for gold prices, with global gold ETF inflows reaching $64 billion this year, including a record $17.3 billion in September alone [4] - The recent ceasefire agreement in the Middle East has the potential to increase outflows from gold, putting downward pressure on prices if the situation stabilizes further [5] Technical Analysis - The short-term outlook for gold remains bullish, with prices recently breaking above the $4000 mark, although traders are advised to be cautious of potential short-term corrections [7] - Current trading strategies suggest entering long positions around $3970 or $3950 with specific stop-loss and target levels, while monitoring resistance around $4030 for potential short positions [7]