周四（10月9日）亚市早盘，现货黄金交投于4020美元/盎司附近，现货黄金周伞首次突破每盎司4000美 元大关，延续破纪录涨势至4059.07美元/盎司。地缘政治与经济不确定性加剧，以及市场对美国降息的 预期，促使投资者涌入避险资产；美原油交投于62美元/桶附近，油价周三创一周新高，交易商预计乌 克兰和平协议缺乏进展将使对俄罗斯的制裁继续有效。 美联储会议纪要谨慎暗示今年将进一步降息。美联储官员对利率未来走向的分歧越来越大，但多数人认 为，今年有必要进一步降息。周三公布的美联储9月会议纪要显示，委员会正在努力应对相互矛盾的经 济信号，并在顽固的通胀和疲软的劳动力市场哪个是最紧迫的问题上难以达成共识。会议纪要显示，美 联储官员一致认为，鉴于近期疲弱的就业数据，有必要降息一次，但对于未来路径官员产生分歧。不 过，会议纪要显示，"大多数人认为，在今年剩余时间里进一步放松政策可能是合适的。"然而，一些政 策制定者"指出，从若干指标来看，金融状况表明货币政政策并非特别具有限制性，他们认为有必要采 取谨慎的态度"。根据9月份的预测，10名美联储官员暗示，他们预计今年还会再降息两次，9人认为应 该会降息一次或更少。 黄金需 ...

来源：市场资讯 （来源：一德期货） | 标的品种 | 9月30日 | 10月9日 | 假期涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 15:00报价 | 07:00报价 | | | 马棕油 | 4369 | 4546 | 4.05% | | COMEX黄金 | 3883.9 | 4039.9 | 4.02% | | COMEX铜 | 4.8810 | 5.0670 | 3.81% | | 德DAX 30 | 23775.12 | 24597.13 | 3.46% | | CBOT豆油 | 49.67 | 51.34 | 3.36% | | LmeS铝 | 2664.5 | 2750.5 | 3.23% | | LmeS锡 | 35125 | 36250 | 3.20% | | LmeS铜 | 10375.0 | 10701.0 | 3.14% | | COMEX白银 | 46.965 | 48.250 | 2.74% | | 美天然气 | 3.253 | 3.341 | 2.71% | | LmeS锌 | 2917.5 | 2995.0 | 2.66% | | CBOT大豆 | 1 ...

来源：贺氏博生HBS6282 投资市场永远有四个层次：保住本金，控制风险，赚取收益，长期稳定持续赢利。不要因为一天的输赢定结果，赚钱是偶然还是必然，是凭真功夫还是凭运 气，在市场上能活着的肯定是最终能够长期持续赢利的投资者。交易就是一个好的习惯，严格执行你的交易计划。一次严谨的交易=良好的心态控制＋正确 的仓位控制＋过硬的技术功力，合作从不强买强卖。机会是留给有准备的人，一次正确的选择大于百倍努力， 你相信老师，我给你一个满意收益，你刚好 需要，我刚好专业！ 黄金最新行情趋势分析： 黄金消息面解析：周三（北京时间10月8日）亚市早盘，现货黄金交投于3990美元/盎司附近，现货黄金周三触及3990.90美元/盎司的历史高位，12月交割的 美国期金一度升至4014.6美元/盎司，受助于美联储本月晚些时候降息的预期和美国政府陷于停摆推动的持续避险需求。周二（10月7日）现货黄金在触及历 史新高3977.25美元/盎司后小幅回落，不过在有利的基本面背景下，任何实质性回调似乎都难以实现。美元已连续两个交易日走强，然而，由于市场普遍预 期美联储将在年内再实施两次降息，美元的这波上涨缺乏坚定的看涨信念，这或许将继续为无息黄 ...

周五（10月3日），现货黄金交投于3855.30美元/盎司附近，金价周四再度刷新历史新高至3896.60美元/盎司，但因达拉斯联储主席洛根呼吁对进一步降息保 持谨慎，金价最终收低；美原油交投于60.68美元/桶附近，油价周四下跌近2%，创四个月新低，连续第四个交易日走低，因市场在OPEC+周末会议前对供应 过剩感到担忧。 迄今为止的就业数据乏善可陈，促使交易员们普遍押注美联储今年将再降息两次，包括在10月底降息一次。不过，由于政府停摆，劳工部不得不推迟发布9 月非农就业报告。Baird称，虽然政府停摆并不令人震惊，投资者也因知道过去政府停摆通常不会对市场造成伤害而感到宽慰，但这仍然令人担忧。鉴于两 党目前的两极分化程度，而且双方似乎都在坚持各自的立场，如果这次停摆的时间拖得更长一些，也不足为奇。 金价周四下跌近1%，从盘中创下的纪录高位回落，此前达拉斯联储主席洛根呼吁对进一步降息保持谨慎。现货金下跌0.5%，至每盎司3845.78美元。美国12 月期金结算价下跌0.8%，报每盎司3868.1美元。美联储上月降息是为防范就业市场状况突然恶化的"保险"措施，但对未来进一步降息仍需"谨慎"。 金价在洛根讲话后走低。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report provides a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including spot prices, fundamental information, supply - demand dynamics, macro news, fund flows, etc. It shows the current situation and trends in the agricultural and energy futures markets, as well as the impact of international and domestic economic data on the market. 3. Summary by Directory 01 Spot Quotes - Closing prices and price changes of various futures such as Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude oil, US crude oil, US soybeans, etc. are presented. For example, the closing price of Malaysian palm oil 12 (BMD) is 4453.00, with a previous - day decline of 1.37% and an overnight decline of 0.29%. [1] - Latest prices and price changes of various currencies are also given, like the US dollar index at 98.44 with a 0.61% increase. [1] 02 Spot Quotes (Continued) - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil 2601, DCE豆油 2601, and DCE豆粕 2601 in different regions are provided. For instance, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2601 in North China is 9340, with a basis of 100 and no change in basis compared to the previous day. [2] - CNF quotes and CNF premium information for imported soybeans from different regions are included, such as the CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans being 289 cents per bushel and the CNF quote being 477 dollars per ton. [2] 03 Important Fundamental Information - **产区天气** - The future weather outlook (September 30 - October 4) for US soybean - producing states shows that temperatures are generally high and precipitation varies. Some states have above - normal temperatures and above - median precipitation. [3][4] - The weather in the US Midwest will become dry over the weekend and next week, which will help with the harvest. However, scattered showers in the south and east may delay the harvest in the short term but improve drought conditions. [5] - **国际供需** - MPOA estimates that Malaysian palm oil production from September 1 - 20 decreased by 4.26% compared to the same period last month, with different changes in different regions. [7] - ITS and AmSpec data show that Malaysian palm oil exports from September 1 - 25 increased by 12.9% and 11.3% respectively compared to the same period last month. [7][8] - USDA reports show that US soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil export sales from September 1 - 18 met expectations, with different trends in current - year and next - year sales. [9][10] - Deral estimates that the soybean production in Paraná state in the 2025/26 season is 2194 tons, slightly lower than the August forecast. [10] - Argentina re - implemented export withholding taxes on grains, beef, and poultry after reaching a sales limit. After a three - day suspension of soybean export taxes, Argentina's soybean exports reached a seven - year high. [9][10] - India purchased 300,000 tons of soybean oil from Argentina in two days, with delivery from October to March next year. [11] - **国内供需** - On September 25, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 2300 tons, a 91% decrease compared to the previous day. [13] - On September 25, the trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was 12.39 tons, a decrease of 12.49 tons compared to the previous day. The operating rate of oil mills was 59.79%, a 1.49% increase from the previous day. [13] - On September 25, the "农产品批发价格200指数" and the "菜篮子" product wholesale price index remained unchanged. The average price of pork decreased by 0.8% and the price of eggs decreased by 0.1% compared to the previous day. [14] 04 Macro News - **国际要闻** - CME's "美联储观察" shows that the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in October is 14.5% and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 85.5%. [14] - US economic data such as initial jobless claims, durable goods orders, trade deficit, GDP, PCE, and personal consumption expenditure show different trends compared to expectations and previous values. [14][15] - The eurozone's M3 money supply annual growth rate in August was 2.9%, lower than expected. [15] - **国内要闻** - On September 25, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was 7.1118, up 41 points (yuan depreciation). [16] - On September 25, the Chinese central bank conducted 4835 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and 6000 billion yuan of MLF operations, with a net investment of 2965 billion yuan. [16] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce decided to launch a trade and investment barrier investigation against Mexico's relevant China - related restrictive measures on September 25. [16] 05 Fund Flows On September 25, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 5.357 billion yuan, including a net outflow of 630 million yuan from commodity futures and 5.276 billion yuan from stock index futures, while treasury bond futures had a net inflow of 564 million yuan. [19] 06 Arbitrage Tracking No relevant information provided.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents overnight and spot market conditions of various commodities, including palm oil, soybeans, and related products. It also provides important fundamental information such as weather forecasts, international supply - demand data, and macro - economic news, along with details on fund flows and trading volumes. 3. Summary by Directory 01 Overnight行情 - Overnight closing prices and percentage changes of various commodities like palm oil, crude oil, soybeans, and related products are presented. For example, the closing price of BMD Malaysia palm oil 11 was 4422.00, with a previous day's decline of 0.74% and an overnight decline of 0.43% [1]. - Exchange rate information including the US dollar index and various currency exchange rates against the US dollar are given, along with their percentage changes [1]. 02 现货行情 - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil 2601, DCE豆油 2601, and DCE豆粕 2601 in different regions are provided. For instance, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2601 in North China was 9460, with a basis of 100 and no change in basis from the previous day [2]. - CNF quotes and CNF premium information for imported soybeans from different origins are presented [2]. 03 重要基本面信息 - **产区天气**: The future weather outlook (September 8 - 12) for US soybean - producing states shows that most areas will have lower - than - normal temperatures and precipitation close to or higher than normal. The Midwest will have local or sporadic precipitation and lower temperatures [3][5]. - **国际供需**: - Reuters survey predicts Malaysia's palm oil inventory in August 2025 to be 2.2 million tons, a 4.06% increase from July; production is expected to be 1.86 million tons, a 2.5% increase from July; and exports are expected to be 1.45 million tons, a 10.7% increase from July [7]. - Forecasts for palm oil production in Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand in different fiscal years are given. For example, Malaysia's 2024/25 palm oil production is expected to be adjusted up to 19.3 million tons [8]. - USDA reports a private exporter's sale of 185,000 tons of soybean meal to the Philippines for the 2025/2026 market year [9]. - The Dutch Cooperative Bank expects Brazil's soybean planting area in the 2025/26 season to increase by 1.5% compared to the previous year, and Brazil may harvest a record 175 million tons of soybeans [9]. - Information on soybean sales in Argentina, including cumulative sales and sales to different sectors (domestic oil mills and export industries), is provided [10]. - Forecasts for rapeseed production in the EU 27 + UK, Australia, and Germany are presented. For example, the EU 27 + UK's rapeseed production is expected to be 20.4 million tons, a 0.3% increase from the previous forecast [10]. - The Baltic Dry Index fell to a nearly two - week low due to the decline in freight rates of Capesize and Panamax ships [11]. - On September 3, the trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil decreased, and the trading volume of soybean meal also decreased. The national dynamic full - sample oil mill operating rate increased to 65.11% [12]. 04 宏观要闻 - **国际要闻**: - According to CME's "Fed Watch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 3.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 96.6% [14]. - US economic data such as JOLTs job openings, factory orders, retail sales, mortgage application activity, and API crude oil inventory are reported [14]. - OPEC + will consider further increasing oil production at a Sunday meeting, but may also suspend the increase. The final decision has not been made [15]. - Eurozone economic data such as PPI and services PMI are presented [15]. - **国内要闻**: - On September 3, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was reported at 7.1108, up 19 points (depreciation of the Chinese yuan) [17]. - The People's Bank of China conducted 229.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on September 3, resulting in a net withdrawal of 150.8 billion yuan due to 379.9 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase maturities [17]. 05 资金流向 On September 3, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 7.763 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net capital inflow of 5.08 billion yuan, while stock index futures had a net capital outflow of 12.843 billion yuan [19]. 06 套利跟踪 No relevant content provided.

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the petrochemical industry is experiencing mixed performance, with the oil and petrochemical index declining by 0.57% compared to the previous week, while other petrochemical sectors showed a positive trend with a 1.15% increase [1] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the progress of eliminating outdated facilities and upgrading within the petrochemical industry, alongside the stable reduction of US oil inventories [2] - Energy prices are fluctuating, with a noted decrease in US crude oil inventories and a mixed performance in refined oil inventories [3] Group 2 - In the polyester segment, the prices and margins of polyester filament are showing steady increases, with an uptick in inventory days and operating rates for weaving machines in Jiangsu and Zhejiang [3] - For olefins, the prices of sample polyolefin spot markets remain stable, accompanied by a decrease in inventory levels [3] - The refining sector may benefit from improved demand and progress in eliminating outdated production capacities [4]

Group 1 - Gold prices reached around $3,450 per ounce, marking the best monthly performance since April, driven by expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [1][3] - The S&P 500 index fell 0.64% to 6,460.26 points, while the Nasdaq and Dow Jones indices also experienced declines of 1.15% and 0.20%, respectively, as investors analyzed inflation data indicating the impact of tariffs on prices [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates once or possibly twice this year, which is generally supportive of commodity prices, including gold and silver [3] Group 2 - The U.S. dollar remained stable but experienced a monthly decline of 2.2%, making gold cheaper for overseas buyers [3] - The personal consumption expenditures price index in the U.S. rose 0.2% month-over-month and 2.6% year-over-year, aligning with expectations [3] - Traders increased the likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut at the September policy meeting from 85% to 89% following the release of inflation data [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the oil and petrochemical index performed generally, with a decrease of 0.57% compared to the previous week, while other petrochemical sectors showed a better performance with an increase of 1.15% [1][2] - The report highlights the steady increase in the price and price spread of polyester filament, along with a rise in inventory days and operating rates of weaving machines in Jiangsu and Zhejiang [1][3] - The energy prices are experiencing fluctuations, with a decrease in US crude oil inventory and a mixed performance in refined oil inventory [3] Group 2 - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the progress of eliminating outdated facilities and upgrading in the petrochemical industry, especially in light of the stable reduction in US oil inventory [2][4] - It suggests that if demand improves and there is progress in eliminating backward production capacity, it would be beneficial for the midstream refining sector [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including overnight and spot prices, important fundamental information, macro news, fund flows, and arbitrage tracking for various commodities such as palm oil, soybeans, and crude oil. It also analyzes the impact of weather conditions on crop yields and the supply - demand dynamics in both international and domestic markets. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overnight Quotes - The closing prices and daily/overnight price changes of various futures contracts are presented, including Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude oil, US crude oil, US soybeans, and related products. For example, the price of Malaysian palm oil 11 (BMD) closed at 4451.00, with a daily decline of 0.51% and an overnight decline of 0.43% [1]. - The latest prices and price changes of major currency pairs are also given, such as the US dollar index, Chinese yuan, Malaysian ringgit, etc. For instance, the US dollar index was at 98.21, down 0.22% [1]. 3.2 Spot Quotes - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil 2601, DCE soybean oil 2601, and DCE soybean meal 2601 in different regions are provided. For example, in the north of China, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2601 is 9620, with a basis of 100 and no change from the previous day [2]. - CNF quotes and CNF premium changes for imported soybeans from different origins are presented. The CNF premium for Brazilian soybeans is 278 cents per bushel, and the CNF quote is 487 dollars per ton [2]. 3.3 Important Fundamental Information 3.3.1 Weather Conditions - In the US, the future weather outlook for soybean - producing states from August 31 to September 4 shows that most areas will have lower - than - normal temperatures and precipitation close to or above the median. In the Midwest, a cold front has led to lower temperatures and some precipitation is expected, but dry conditions in the south and east may cause a certain degree of yield decline [4][6]. - In Indonesia and Malaysia, the temperature will be suitable in the next two weeks, and the total rainfall will be close to or slightly above normal. However, some areas may experience lower - than - normal rainfall, which could have a negative impact on palm oil crops [7]. 3.3.2 International Supply and Demand - From August 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 1.21% compared to the same period last month, with a 3.26% decrease in yield per unit and a 0.4% increase in oil extraction rate [9]. - Malaysia is seeking to exempt crude and refined palm kernel oil from sales and service tax (SST). The US has agreed in principle to exclude Indonesian palm oil, cocoa, and rubber from the 19% tariff, but no timeline has been set [9]. - India's IVPA urges the government to cancel tax - credit refund restrictions. Pakistan is expected to import about 1.1 million tons of soybeans from the US worth 500 million dollars [10]. - A Brazilian federal judge has temporarily suspended a ban on the "Amazon soybean ban" plan. Anec estimates Brazil's soybean exports in August to be 8.9 million tons and soybean meal exports to be 2.13 million tons [11]. - EU's imports of palm oil, soybeans, and rapeseed in the 2025/26 season are lower than the same period last year. Russia will resume export tariffs on sunflower oil and its by - products from September [11][12]. - The Baltic Dry Index rose to a more than one - week high due to increased demand for all types of ships [13]. 3.3.3 Domestic Supply and Demand - On August 26, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil decreased by 60% compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume of soybean meal decreased by 0.20 million tons, with a decrease in spot trading volume and an increase in far - month basis trading volume [14]. - The开机 rate of oil mills in China decreased by 0.10% to 68.85%. The port inventory of soybean oil increased by 410,000 tons compared to the previous week [14]. - The "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" increased, while the average price of pork decreased by 0.5% [14]. 3.4 Macro News 3.4.1 International News - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 12.2%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 87.8% [14]. - The US Redbook commercial retail sales annual rate increased to 6.5% in the week ending August 23. The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index in August was - 7, better than expected [15]. - The US Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index in August was 97.4, slightly higher than expected. The durable goods orders monthly rate in July was - 2.8%, better than expected [15]. 3.4.2 Domestic News - On August 26, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was 7.1188, up 27 points. The People's Bank of China conducted 405.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 47.45 billion yuan [19][20]. 3.5 Fund Flows - On August 26, 2025, the futures market experienced a net outflow of 22.781 billion yuan in funds, including 3.489 billion yuan from commodity futures (714 million yuan from agricultural product futures, 878 million yuan from chemical futures, 1.527 billion yuan from black - series futures, and 370 million yuan from metal futures) and 19.292 billion yuan from stock index futures [23]. - The fund flows of major varieties are presented, with gold having an inflow of 392 million yuan and palm oil having an outflow of 251 million yuan [22]. 3.6 Arbitrage Tracking No relevant content provided.