| 布伦特原油主连， | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | BRNOW 外期 延时 | | | | | | | 61.88 | 回应 | 62.73 振幅 | | 2.49% 量 20.75 | | | 61.17 | ਜ਼ਿੰ | | 昨结 | 62.72 | 持仓 61.5 | | -0.84 -1.34% 开 | | 62.72 | 今结 | | - L 日増 | | 分时 日K 周K | | | 目K | 王日 | 更多, | | 均价: 61.97 最新: 61.88 -0.84 -1.34% | | | | | | | 64.27 | | | | 2.47% 卖 1 61.87 | | | | | | | 买1 61.85 | | | | | | | 21:20 61.86 | | | | | | | 21:20 61.86 | | | | | | | 21:20 61.86 | | | | | | | 21:20 61.86 | | | | | | | 21:20 61.86 | | | | | | | 0.00% 21:20 6 ...

今日凌晨进行了今年第23次油价调整，下调汽油价格70元/吨，柴油价格65元/吨。折合升计算为下调油价0.05元/升-0.06元/升。 总的来说，国际油价仍有震荡空间，市场正观望俄乌局势的走向，本轮油价调整仍存下跌希望。 本轮油价会跌多少，让我们持续关注~ 本轮油价调整时间：12月8日24时 注意，国际油价大涨 注意，受美联储降息预期升温影响，市场对经济复苏预期加强，原油需求端支撑加强。而俄乌停火谈判仍有不确定性，供应中断担忧也没 有完全消除。昨日国际油价直接出现大幅反弹，新一轮油价调整不知道又会有什么变化。 这边说下昨日原油市场的表现，美原油：上涨1.57%，收于58.88美元/桶。布伦特原油上涨1.42%，收于62.73美元/桶。今日国际油价震荡 中，截至发稿，美原油暂报58.72美元/桶，跌幅0.29%。 对于近期油价走势，分析师们普遍认为受俄乌谈判进展影响，本周任何停火或协议迹象都可能加速价格回落，也分析师称，战争持续可能 性仍存，油价地缘政治风险溢价还将继续支撑油价走高。 而目前在俄乌局势上，乌克兰官员称，此前的28点和平计划已不复存在，美乌已起草新的19点和平计划，但政治上最敏感的部分将留给两 国总 ...

【国富期货早间看点】SGS马棕11月前20日出口环比减40.6% Patria巴西大豆播种率为79.61% 20251124 国富研究 国富研究 2025年11月24日 07:20 上海 01 隔夜行情 | | 收盘价 | 上日涨跌幅(%) | 隔夜涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马棕油02(BMD) | 4068. 00 | -2. 05 | | | 布伦特01(ICE) | 62. 51 | -1.08 | 0. 86 | | 美原油01(NYMEX) | 57.98 | -1. 33 | 0. 89 | | 美豆01(CBOT) | 1126. 50 | 0. 31 | 0. 74 | | 美豆粕01(CBOT) | 319.80 | 0.66 | 0. 41 | | 美豆油01(CBOT) | 50. 61 | -0. 90 | 0. 76 | | | 最新价 | 涨跌幅(%) 十日涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | | 美元指数 | 100. 15 | -0. 08 | | 人民币(CNY/USD) | 7.0875 | -0. 04 | | ...

Core Insights - The current oil price adjustment cycle indicates a decrease of 45 yuan/ton, with an increased expected drop of 5 yuan/ton compared to yesterday, remaining below the adjustment threshold [1] - International oil prices have experienced a significant drop due to geopolitical developments, particularly related to the Russia-Ukraine situation, with expectations of a potential framework agreement by the end of the month [3] - The latest EIA data shows a reduction in U.S. crude oil inventories by 3.426 million barrels, contrasting with an expected decrease of 603,000 barrels, while gasoline inventories increased by 2 million barrels against an expected decrease [3] Oil Price Trends - As of the latest reports, U.S. crude oil is trading at $59.47 per barrel, showing a slight increase of 0.10% after a previous drop of 1.92% [3] - Brent crude oil also saw a decline of 1.74%, closing at $63.66 per barrel [3] - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data and unemployment rate are anticipated to influence further fluctuations in oil prices [3] Regional Fuel Prices - The new fuel price adjustments will take effect on November 24, with specific prices for various fuel types listed for major cities [4][5][6] - For example, in Beijing, the price for 92 octane gasoline is 6.94 yuan/liter, while 95 octane is priced at 7.39 yuan/liter [4] - Prices vary across regions, with notable differences in cities like Shanghai, Guangdong, and Jiangsu [5][6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including overnight and spot prices, important fundamental information on weather, supply - demand, macro news, fund flows, and arbitrage tracking. It analyzes data from multiple agricultural and energy commodities, as well as currency exchange rates, to offer insights into market trends and potential investment opportunities [1][6][8][16][21]. 3. Summary by Directory Overnight行情 - Overnight closing prices and percentage changes are provided for various futures, including palm oil, Brent crude, US crude, soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil. For example, the closing price of BMD palm oil 01 is 4124.00, with a previous day's increase of 0.02% and an overnight increase of 0.32% [1]. - Latest prices and percentage changes are given for multiple currency indices, such as the US dollar index, Chinese yuan, Malaysian ringgit, etc. For instance, the US dollar index is at 99.56, with a 0.02% increase [1]. Spot行情 - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes are presented for DCE palm oil 2601, DCE soybean oil 2601, and DCE soybean meal 2601 in different regions. For example, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2601 in North China is 8780, with a basis of 100 and no change in basis compared to the previous day [3]. Important Fundamental Information Region Weather - In Brazil, rainfall may increase in the coming week, which is beneficial for soybean crops. However, growers may be concerned about soil moisture for soybean germination and early growth. In Argentina, current weather is favorable for soybean sowing, but long - term models suggest a possible return to dry conditions [6]. International Supply - Demand - MPOB data shows that Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of October increased by 4.4% to 2460000 tons, with production up 11.02% to 2040000 tons and exports up 18.58% to 1690000 tons [8]. - AmSpec and ITS reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1 - 10 decreased by 9.5% and 12.28% respectively compared to the same period last month [8][9]. - India's soybean oil imports in 2025 may jump by about 40% to 4.7 - 4.9 million tons, while palm oil imports are expected to drop to about 8 million tons [9]. - US soybean and corn harvests are nearly complete, with a 96% soybean harvest rate and a 92% corn harvest rate [9]. - As of November 6, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 1088577 tons, in line with expectations [10]. - As of November 8, Brazil's soybean sowing rate was 58.4%, and AgRural reported a 61% sowing rate as of last Thursday [10]. - Anec data shows Brazil's soybean, soybean meal, and corn export volumes for the weeks of October 26 - November 1 and November 2 - 8 [10]. - The Baltic Dry Index ended a four - day increase, mainly due to the decline in Capesize ship freight rates [11]. Domestic Supply - Demand - On November 10, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 40300 tons, a 104% increase from the previous trading day [12]. - On November 10, the trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was 193600 tons, an increase of 129700 tons from the previous day. The overall operating rate of oil mills was 56.06%, up 5.26% from the previous day [12]. - As of November 7, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key domestic regions was 597300 tons, a 0.76% increase from the previous week and a 10.86% increase year - on - year [12]. - As of November 7, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key domestic regions was 1157200 tons, a 4.82% decrease from the previous week but a 5.09% increase year - on - year [12]. - As of November 7, 2025, the total commercial inventory of three major oils (soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil) in key domestic regions was 2204700 tons, a 5.16% decrease from the previous week but an 8.52% increase year - on - year [13]. - As of November 10, the port inventory of imported soybeans in China was 767077 tons, a decrease of 50337 tons from the previous week [13]. - The estimated production, import, and consumption of edible vegetable oil in China for the 2024/25 and 2025/26 seasons are provided [13]. - On November 10, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" increased, while the average pork price in the national agricultural product wholesale market decreased by 0.5% [14]. Macro News International News - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 64.1%, and Fed Governor Milan believes a 50 - basis - point cut in December is appropriate [16]. - The US Senate advanced a federal government temporary appropriation bill, which may end the 40 - day government shutdown, but its passage in the House is uncertain [16]. - The Eurozone's November Sentix Investor Confidence Index is - 7.4, lower than the expected - 4 [16]. Domestic News - On November 10, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was 7.0856, up 20 points (depreciation of the Chinese yuan) [18]. - On November 10, the People's Bank of China conducted 1199 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 416 billion yuan [18]. - The US will suspend the 301 investigation measures on China's shipbuilding and other industries for one year, which is a step towards implementing the Sino - US Kuala Lumpur economic and trade consultation consensus [18]. Fund Flows On November 10, 2025, the futures market had a net capital inflow of 18.119 billion yuan, including 9.752 billion yuan in commodity futures (592 million yuan in agricultural product futures, 1.372 billion yuan in chemical futures, - 227 million yuan in black - series futures, and 8.015 billion yuan in metal futures), 7.867 billion yuan in stock index futures, and 435 million yuan in Treasury bond futures [21]. Arbitrage Tracking No relevant content provided.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report presents a comprehensive overview of the commodities market, including overnight and spot prices, important fundamental information on supply - demand, and details on capital flows and macro - economic data. It offers insights into the palm oil, soybean, and other related markets both internationally and domestically, as well as key economic indicators from the US and China [1][3][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overnight Market Quotes - The closing price of BMD Malaysian palm oil futures contract 01 was 4122.00, with a previous - day decline of 0.84% and an overnight increase of 0.32% [1]. - Brent crude oil contract 01 on ICE closed at 63.55, down 1.24% from the previous day and 0.86% overnight [1]. - NYMEX WTI crude oil contract 12 closed at 59.64, down 1.31% from the previous day and 0.83% overnight [1]. - CBOT soybean contract 01 closed at 1134.50, up 1.27% from the previous day and 0.58% overnight [1]. - The US dollar index was at 100.17, down 0.04% [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Quotes - For DCE palm oil 2601, the spot price in North China was 8740, with a basis of 100 and no change from the previous day [3]. - For DCE soybean oil 2601, the spot price in Shandong was 8350, with a basis of 204 and a decrease of 18 from the previous day [3]. - For DCE soybean meal 2601, the spot price in Shandong was 3030, with a basis of - 10 and an increase of 21 from the previous day [3]. 3.3 Important Fundamental Information 3.3.1 Production Areas Weather - In central Brazil, showers will be active until next week, which is beneficial for crops. In South Rio Grande do Sul/Paraná, there will be regional showers until Thursday, scattered showers on Friday, and regional showers on Saturday. Temperatures will be near to above normal from Wednesday to Thursday and near to below normal from Friday to Saturday [5]. 3.3.2 International Supply - Demand - MPOA estimates that Malaysia's palm oil production from October 1 - 31 increased by 12.31% to 2.07 million tons, reaching an eight - year high [7]. - India's palm oil imports in October dropped to a five - year low of 750,000 tons due to increased domestic inventory, weak food industry demand, and a narrowing price gap with other oilseeds [8]. - Analysts expect that as of the week ending October 30, US 2025/26 soybean export sales will net increase by 400,000 - 2 million tons, soybean meal by 50,000 - 450,000 tons, and soybean oil by 5,000 - 25,000 tons [9]. 3.3.3 Domestic Supply - Demand - On November 5, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 12,300 tons, a decrease of 10,900 tons or 47% compared to the previous trading day [13]. - On November 5, the total trading volume of soybean meal at major domestic oil mills was 132,100 tons, an increase of 62,000 tons compared to the previous day [13]. 3.3.4 International Macroeconomic Data - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 62.5%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 37.5% [14]. - The US ADP employment in October was 42,000, higher than the expected 28,000 [14]. 3.3.5 Domestic Macroeconomic News - On November 5, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was 7.0901, up 16 points (yuan depreciation) [16]. - On November 5, the People's Bank of China conducted 65.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 492.2 billion yuan due to 557.7 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase maturities [16]. 3.4 Capital Flows - On November 5, 2025, the futures market had a net capital inflow of 4.605 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net inflow of 132 million yuan, including 1.087 billion yuan for agricultural product futures, 937 million yuan for chemical futures, and 773 million yuan for black - series futures, while metal futures had a net outflow of 2.664 billion yuan. Stock index futures had a net inflow of 4.278 billion yuan, and treasury bond futures had a net outflow of 30 million yuan [20]. 3.5 Arbitrage Tracking No specific information provided in the given content.

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints The report presents a comprehensive overview of the agricultural and energy futures markets, including overnight and spot prices, important fundamental information, macro - economic news, and capital flow data. It also provides forecasts on the supply and demand of key agricultural products such as palm oil and soybeans. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight行情 - Overnight closing prices, previous day's and overnight percentage changes are given for various futures including palm oil, Brent crude, US crude, soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil. For example, the closing price of BMD palm oil 01 is 4139.00 with a previous day's increase of 0.70% and an overnight decrease of 0.12% [1]. - Latest prices and percentage changes are provided for multiple currencies such as the US dollar index, Chinese yuan, Malaysian ringgit, etc. For instance, the US dollar index is at 100.20 with a 0.34% increase [1]. 现货行情 - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes for DCE palm oil 2601, DCE豆油 2601, and DCE豆粕 2601 in different regions are presented. For example, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2601 in North China is 8720 with a basis of 100 and no change in basis [3]. - CNF升贴水 and CNF报价 for imported soybeans from different regions are shown. The CNF升贴水 for Brazilian soybeans is 235 cents per bushel and the CNF报价 is 503 dollars per ton [5]. 重要基本面信息 - **产区天气**: Rainy weather has returned to central Brazil, which is beneficial for soybean crops. Different states in Brazil have different weather conditions and temperature trends [6]. - **国际供需** - MPOB月报前瞻: Malaysian palm oil inventory is expected to rise 3.5% to 2440000 tons in October, with production reaching 1940000 tons (up 5.6% from the previous month) and exports increasing 3.8% to 1480000 tons [8]. - StoneX: Reduced the US 2025 soybean yield forecast from 53.9 to 53.6 bushels per acre, and the production forecast to 4.303 billion bushels [8]. - S&P Global Commodity Insights: Predicted the 2025 US soybean average yield at 53.0 bushels per acre and production at 4.260 billion bushels [8]. - StoneX: Kept the forecasts for Brazil's 2025/26 soybean and summer corn harvests largely unchanged, with a 0.1% increase in the 2025/26 soybean production forecast [9]. - Imea: The soybean crushing profit in Mato Grosso state from October 27 - 31 was 502.44 Brazilian reals per ton [9]. - Deral: The soybean planting area in Parana state reached 79% of the expected area, with 93% of the evaluated area having good growth [9]. - EU: As of November 2, the 2025/26 palm oil, soybean, soybean meal, and rapeseed imports were 960000 tons, 3.81 million tons, 6.11 million tons, and 1.26 million tons respectively, all lower than the previous year [10][11]. - Kazakhstan: Exports of livestock feed meal in September 2025 reached a record high of 305000 tons, 2.5 times the previous year [11]. - Baltic Dry Index: Rose 13 points or 0.7% to 1958 points due to increased demand for Capesize vessels [11]. - **国内供需** - On November 4, soybean oil and palm oil total sales were 23200 tons, a 121% increase from the previous day [13]. - On November 4, the total soybean meal sales of major domestic oil mills were 70100 tons, a decrease of 34200 tons from the previous day. The national oil mill operating rate was 51.51%, a 2.37% decrease [13]. - As of November 4, the national soybean oil port inventory was 1199000 tons, a decrease of 35000 tons from October 28 [13]. - The average prices of piglets, live pigs, and pork in China changed compared to the previous week and the same period last year [13]. - On November 4, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" decreased by 0.13 points, and the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index decreased by 0.16 points [14]. 宏观要闻 - **国际要闻** - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 70.1%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 29.9% [17]. - The US Red Book commercial retail sales annual rate increased 5.7% in the week ending November 1 [17]. - The US Senate failed to pass the federal government's temporary appropriation bill on November 4, and the government "shutdown" is set to become the longest in history [18]. - The US API crude oil inventory in the week ending October 31 was 6.521 million barrels [18]. - The Reserve Bank of Australia kept the benchmark interest rate at 3.60% and is cautious about further easing [18]. - **国内要闻** - On November 4, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was 7.0885, up 18 points [20]. - On November 4, the People's Bank of China conducted 117.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 357.8 billion yuan [20]. - On November 5, the People's Bank of China will conduct 700 billion yuan of 3 - month (91 - day) outright reverse repurchase operations [20]. 资金流向 On November 4, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 15.329 billion yuan, including a net outflow of 9.065 billion yuan in commodity futures and 6.369 billion yuan in stock index futures, and a net inflow of 0.01 billion yuan in treasury bond futures [23]. 套利跟踪 No specific content is provided in the given report.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report presents the latest market information for agricultural products and energy commodities, including overnight and spot market prices, important fundamental data, macro - economic news, and capital flow trends. It also analyzes the supply - demand situation from both international and domestic perspectives. 3. Summary by Directory 01 Overnight Market - Overnight prices and percentage changes of various futures contracts such as Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude oil, US crude oil, US soybeans, US soybean meal, and US soybean oil are provided. For example, the closing price of Malaysian palm oil 01 (BMD) is 4132.00, with a previous day's decline of 2.14% and an overnight increase of 0.41% [1]. - Exchange rate information including the US dollar index, and exchange rates of multiple currencies against the US dollar are given, like the US dollar index at 99.86 with a 0.16% increase [1]. 02 Spot Market - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil 2601, DCE soybean oil 2601, and DCE soybean meal 2601 in different regions are presented. For instance, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2601 in North China is 8770, with a basis of 100 and a basis change of 0 [3]. - CNF premiums and quotes for imported soybeans from different regions are shown. The CNF premium for US Gulf soybeans is 232 cents per bushel, and the CNF quote is 498 dollars per ton [5]. 03 Important Fundamental Information - Regional Weather - US soybean - producing states' weather outlook from November 8 - 12 shows that temperatures will be near to above normal, and precipitation will be near or below the median. The Midwest may experience variable weather that could disrupt harvesting [6][8]. - Brazil is expected to have widespread precipitation this week, which is beneficial for crops [8]. - International Supply - Demand - In October 2025, Malaysian palm oil production increased by 5.55% month - on - month, and exports increased by 26.54% compared to the same period last month [9]. - Indonesia's palm oil and refined palm oil exports in the first 9 months of 2025 increased by 11.62% year - on - year [9]. - The estimated US soybean harvest rate as of last Sunday is 91%, and the corn harvest rate is 83%. The US is expected to have a bumper harvest of both crops [10]. - As of November 1, Brazil's soybean sowing rate is 47.1%, lower than the same period last year and the five - year average [11]. - Domestic Supply - Demand - On November 3, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil decreased by 2600 tons (20%) compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume of soybean meal also decreased [16]. - As of October 31, 2025, the commercial inventories of palm oil and soybean oil in key regions decreased compared to the previous week, while the port inventory of imported soybeans increased [16]. 04 Macroeconomic News - International News - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 67.3%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 32.7% [19]. - US manufacturing PMI data for October shows that the ISM manufacturing PMI is 48.7, lower than expected, while the S&P Global manufacturing PMI is 52.5, higher than the previous value [19]. - The eurozone's manufacturing PMI in October is in line with expectations at 50 [19]. - Domestic News - On November 3, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was adjusted downwards (the yuan appreciated) by 13 points [21]. - The Chinese central bank conducted 783 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on November 3, resulting in a net withdrawal of 2590 billion yuan [21]. 05 Capital Flow - On November 3, 2025, the futures market had a net capital inflow of 1.399 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net inflow of 1.76 billion yuan, while stock index futures had a net outflow of 252 million yuan and bond futures had a net outflow of 88 million yuan [24]. 06 Arbitrage Tracking No relevant content provided.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents a comprehensive analysis of the futures market, including overnight and spot prices, important fundamental information, macro news, fund flows, and arbitrage tracking [1][3][6][18][23][26] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Market - The closing prices and percentage changes of various futures contracts such as palm oil, Brent crude, US crude, soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil are presented, along with the latest prices and percentage changes of currency indices [1] Spot Market - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal in different regions are provided [3] Important Fundamental Information 产区天气 - The future weather outlook for US soybean - producing states from November 5th to 9th shows that temperatures will be above normal and precipitation will be near or below the median [6] - In the US Midwest, sporadic showers may disrupt early - November harvesting or other field operations, with variable weather and limited precipitation [8] - In central Brazil, showers have restarted, and more extensive rainfall is expected this week, which may affect soybean crop germination and early growth [9] 进出口及产量数据 - AmSpec reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports in October increased by 4.31% month - on - month, while ITS reported a 5.19% increase [10] - Indonesia set the reference price for crude palm oil in November slightly higher than in October, with export taxes remaining unchanged [10] - The USDA may release several major agricultural reports in November, and analysts expect US soybean crushing volume in September to reach a record high [10][11] - The amount of soybean oil used to produce biofuels in the US in August decreased compared to July [11] - The soybean planting progress in Mato Grosso state is 76.13%, slightly lower than the historical average [12] - The rapeseed harvesting progress in Canada is high, and the export volume increased in the week ending October 26th, but decreased compared to the same period last year [12] - India's soybean meal exports in the 2024/25 fiscal year decreased by 11% [13] - The Baltic Dry Index declined, with different types of ships showing varying price trends [14] 国内供需 - On October 31st, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil increased by 26% compared to the previous trading day [16] - The trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills increased, and the overall oil mill operating rate decreased [16] - The actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills in the 44th week was lower than expected [16] - The pig - raising profit improved, and the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" increased on October 31st [16][17] Macro News International News - A Fed official believes that the Fed should not cut interest rates this week or in December [19] - Analysts' forecasts for oil prices remain largely unchanged, and OPEC+ may slightly increase its oil production target or pause production increases [19][20] Domestic News - On October 31st, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was adjusted upwards, and the central bank achieved a net investment through reverse repurchase operations [22] - The Dalian Commodity Exchange will list option contracts for soybean meal and corn futures [22] Fund Flows - On October 31st, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 9.226 billion yuan, with commodity futures having a net outflow of 2.724 billion yuan and stock index futures having a net outflow of 6.722 billion yuan, while treasury bond futures had a net inflow of 140 million yuan [25] Arbitrage Tracking - No relevant information provided

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the futures market, including overnight and spot prices, weather conditions in major production areas, international and domestic supply - demand situations, macro - news, and fund flows. It also offers insights into potential impacts on the market based on these factors. 3. Summary by Section Overnight Market - The closing prices and daily/overnight percentage changes of various futures are presented, such as the BMD palm oil, ICE Brent crude, NYMEX WTI crude, CBOT soybeans, etc. For example, the BMD palm oil 01 closed at 4495.00 with a - 0.13% daily and - 0.29% overnight change [1]. - The latest prices and percentage changes of currency exchange rates, including the US dollar index, CNY/USD, MYR/USD, etc., are given. For instance, the US dollar index was at 98.95 with a 0.34% change [1]. Spot Market - Spot prices, basis, and basis daily changes of DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal in different regions are reported. For example, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2601 in North China is 9490 with a basis of 90 and a 0 - change [2]. - CNF quotes and CNF premium/discounts for imported soybeans from different origins are provided. For example, the CNF quote for Brazilian soybeans is 488 dollars/ton with a 278 - cent/bu premium [2]. Production Area Weather - In the US, the soybean - producing states will have above - normal temperatures and precipitation from October 26 - 30. The Midwest will have limited precipitation from an approaching front, and the rainfall may relieve drought but delay crop harvest [3][5]. - Brazil will be drier this week, which is generally favorable for crops. A front will bring rain later, and the dry weather may allow farmers to plant soybeans quickly [6][7]. International Supply - Demand - SPPOMA reports that Malaysian palm oil production from October 1 - 20 increased by 2.71% month - on - month. AmSpec indicates that the palm oil export volume from October 1 - 20 increased by 2.5% compared to the same period last month [9]. - Anec forecasts that Brazil's soybean and soybean meal exports in October will be 734 and 209 million tons respectively [10]. - EU's imports of palm oil, soybeans, soybean meal, and rapeseed in the 2025/26 season are lower than the same period last year [11]. - Wet weather in Ukraine has damaged sunflower and soybean crops, reducing production forecasts [11][12]. - Australia's August rapeseed exports increased compared to July but decreased compared to the same month in 2024. The 2025/26 crop harvest has just begun [12]. - The Baltic Dry Index rose by 1.1% to 2094 points, supported by the increase in Capesize and Panamax freight rates [13]. Domestic Supply - Demand - On October 21, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil increased by 59% compared to the previous day. The trading volume of soybean meal decreased, and the oil - mill operating rate increased slightly [15]. - As of October 21, the national soybean oil port inventory decreased by 3.1 million tons compared to October 14 [15]. - The "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" increased on October 21. The prices of various agricultural products showed different changes [15]. Macro - news - International: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in October is 98.9%. The annual growth rate of US Redbook retail sales from October 1 - 18 was 5%. The US API crude inventory decreased by 298.1 million barrels in the week ending October 17 [17]. - Domestic: On October 21, the USD/CNY exchange rate was adjusted downwards by 43 points, and the Chinese central bank conducted 1595 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 685 billion yuan [19]. Fund Flows - On October 21, the futures market had a net capital inflow of 12.172 billion yuan, including 3.152 billion yuan in commodity futures (with a 102 - million - yuan net outflow in agricultural futures, 319 - million - yuan net inflow in chemical futures, 874 - million - yuan net outflow in black - series futures, and 3.808 - billion - yuan net inflow in metal futures), 8.542 billion yuan in stock - index futures, and 385 million yuan in bond futures [22].