Report Summary 1. Core View - The report presents the price changes of various international varieties from February 13th, 15:00 to February 23rd, 18:00 in 2026, including stock indices, commodities, and currency indices [3]. 2. Key Points by Category Stock Indices - The FTSE A50 Index rose from 14,684 to 14,919, a 1.60% increase [3]. - The Hang Seng Index increased from 26,595.15 to 27,081.91, a 1.83% rise [3]. - The Dow Jones Industrial Index went up from 49,451.98 to 49,625.97, a 0.35% increase [3]. - The S&P 500 Index climbed from 6,832.76 to 6,909.51, a 1.12% gain [3]. - The NASDAQ Composite Index advanced from 22,597.15 to 22,886.07, a 1.28% increase [3]. - The Nikkei 225 Index dropped from 56,941.97 to 56,825.7, a 0.20% decline [3]. Commodity Indices - The Baltic Dry Index decreased from 2,083 to 2,043, a 1.92% fall [3]. Energy Commodities - Brent Crude Oil rose from $67.55 to $71.04, a 5.17% increase [3]. - US Crude Oil increased from $62.83 to $66.23, a 5.41% rise [3]. Precious Metals - CMX Gold climbed from $4,986.7 to $5,170.1, a 3.68% gain [3]. - CMX Silver advanced from $77.105 to $86.515, a 12.20% increase [3]. Base Metals - LME Copper rose from $12,894.5 to $12,966, a 0.55% increase [3]. - LME Aluminum increased from $3,062.5 to $3,102.5, a 1.31% rise [3]. - LME Zinc went up from $3,352.5 to $3,377.5, a 0.75% increase [3]. - LME Lead dropped from $1,976.5 to $1,963, a 0.68% decline [3]. - LME Nickel advanced from $17,255 to $17,600, a 2.00% increase [3]. - LME Tin climbed from $46,940 to $47,500, a 1.19% gain [3]. Iron Ore - TSI Iron Ore decreased from $97.15 to $95.85, a 1.34% fall [3]. Agricultural Commodities - CBOT Soybeans rose from $1,134.75 to $1,146.75, a 1.06% increase [3]. - CBOT Soybean Meal increased from $308.6 to $309.7, a 0.36% rise [3]. - CBOT Soybean Oil advanced from $57.26 to $59.67, a 4.21% increase [3]. - CBOT Corn climbed from $430.25 to $438.75, a 1.98% gain [3]. - CBOT Wheat rose from $550.75 to $575.75, a 4.54% increase [3]. - MDE Crude Palm Oil increased from 3,996 to 4,084, a 2.20% rise [3]. - ICE No. 2 Cotton advanced from 64.26 to 65.46, a 1.87% increase [3]. - ICE No. 11 Sugar climbed from 13.53 to 13.9, a 2.73% gain [3]. Currency Indices - The US Dollar Index rose from 97.0775 to 97.6349, a 0.57% increase [3]. Currency Pairs - The US Dollar against Offshore RMB decreased from 6.908 to 6.8852, a 0.33% decline [3].

Core Viewpoint - The global macro environment remains turbulent during the Spring Festival holiday, with significant events such as changes in U.S. tariff policies and escalating geopolitical conflicts leading to sharp fluctuations in major asset prices, adding uncertainty to the domestic market's opening after the holiday [1] Market Reactions - During the Spring Festival, international markets experienced notable price movements, with commodities like silver, crude oil, and agricultural products showing significant changes [2] - The price of CMX silver increased by 12.15%, while Brent oil rose by 5.14% and U.S. soybean oil by 4.30% [2] Federal Reserve Policy Insights - The Federal Reserve is experiencing increased internal divisions regarding future monetary policy, with discussions around rate cuts, pauses, and hikes being mentioned [4][5] - Recent data indicates a 3.0% year-over-year increase in the core PCE price index, leading to a reduction in expectations for rate cuts [5][7] Stock Market and Precious Metals Outlook - Despite short-term volatility, the U.S. stock market is still in an economic expansion phase, with AI contributing positively to productivity [9] - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, are expected to continue their upward trend, driven by both financial and industrial demand [11] Oil Market Dynamics - Geopolitical risks are identified as a primary driver of recent fluctuations in global oil prices, with potential military actions against Iran posing risks to oil supply routes [12][13] - The International Energy Agency reports a significant increase in global oil inventories, indicating a potential oversupply situation [13] Commodity Market Predictions - The precious metals sector is anticipated to see substantial increases post-holiday, with silver showing strong potential for recovery due to both financial and industrial factors [15] - The energy sector is expected to respond directly to international crude oil price movements, while the chemical sector may face challenges due to supply-demand mismatches [15] Risk Factors for Market Opening - The market is expected to open broadly higher with structural differentiation, focusing on potential rebound opportunities in precious metals and oil-related products [16] - Key risks include jump gap risks, position changes, and liquidity risks, necessitating cautious trading strategies [16]

Group 1: Global Market Overview - During the Spring Festival holiday, significant global macro events occurred, including sudden changes in U.S. tariff policies and escalating geopolitical conflicts, leading to substantial price volatility in major assets, which adds uncertainty to the domestic market opening after the holiday [1] - The international market saw notable price fluctuations in various commodities, with silver prices increasing by 12.15%, crude oil prices rising by 5.33%, and gold prices up by 3.68% during the holiday period [2] Group 2: U.S. Federal Reserve and Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve's internal divisions have intensified, with discussions around interest rate changes indicating possibilities of rate cuts, pauses, or increases, reflecting a complex monetary policy outlook [4] - The latest data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis shows that the core PCE price index increased by 3.0% year-on-year, which is higher than expected, leading to a reduction in market expectations for rate cuts [4][6] Group 3: Precious Metals and Investment Strategies - The precious metals sector is expected to experience significant price increases, supported by overseas market trends, although high volatility is anticipated due to potential regulatory measures from exchanges [15] - Silver prices have rebounded during the holiday, driven by both financial and commodity attributes, with a notable reduction in short positions in the silver market [11] Group 4: Oil Market Dynamics - Geopolitical risks are identified as the primary driver of global oil price fluctuations, with potential military actions against Iran posing risks to oil supply routes, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz [12][13] - The International Energy Agency's latest report indicates that global oil inventories are increasing at the fastest rate since 2020, suggesting a potential oversupply in the market [14] Group 5: Agricultural Products Outlook - The agricultural sector, particularly commodities like soybean oil and palm oil, has shown significant price increases, with wheat inventories declining for four consecutive years, indicating a potential rebound in wheat prices [15]

Core Viewpoint - Domestic oil prices are expected to increase by 115 yuan/ton, translating to a rise of 0.09-0.10 yuan per liter during the Spring Festival holiday [1] Group 1: International Oil Prices - As of the latest update, U.S. crude oil is priced at $62.32 per barrel, showing a slight increase of 0.16% [3] - The previous day saw a decline in international oil prices, with U.S. crude dropping by 2.17% to $62.3 per barrel and Brent crude falling by 1.73% to $67.41 per barrel [3] - The drop in oil prices was influenced by progress in U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations, which eased geopolitical risks and reduced the risk premium on oil [3] - However, ongoing tensions from U.S.-Russia-Ukraine talks have limited the extent of the price decline, contributing to market volatility [3] Group 2: Domestic Oil Prices - The upcoming adjustment for domestic oil prices is scheduled for February 24 at 24:00 [3] - Current prices for 92-octane gasoline and 95-octane gasoline in major cities are as follows: - Beijing: 6.94 and 7.39 yuan per liter - Shanghai: 6.90 and 7.34 yuan per liter - Guangdong: 6.96 and 7.54 yuan per liter - Hainan: 8.05 and 8.55 yuan per liter [4][5][6][7]

Market Overview - Gold prices experienced a decline, with the latest price reported at $4986.47 per ounce, down 0.65% from an opening price of $5019.14 per ounce, reaching a high of $5030.62 and a low of $4954.42 [1] - The U.S. inflation data for January was below expectations, reigniting hopes for a Federal Reserve rate cut this year, overshadowing the strong employment data from the previous week [1] - The S&P 500 index saw a slight increase due to favorable inflation data, while the Nasdaq index declined under pressure from major tech stocks [2] - The market is cautious ahead of the U.S. Presidents' Day holiday, with significant volatility expected as midterm elections approach and potential changes in Federal Reserve leadership loom [2] Gold Market - Gold prices rose over 2% last Friday, closing the week higher at $5022.06 per ounce, with a weekly increase of 1.2% [3] - The easing inflation concerns have alleviated market tensions, leading to a bullish sentiment for gold, with expectations of a cumulative rate cut of 63 basis points this year, the first cut anticipated in July [3] - Demand for gold remains strong in China ahead of the Spring Festival, while the Indian market has shifted to a discount [3] - ANZ has raised its second-quarter gold price forecast to $5800 per ounce, citing increased attractiveness of gold as a safe-haven asset [3] Oil Market - International oil prices saw a slight increase, with Brent crude futures rising by 0.3% to $67.75 per barrel, and U.S. crude futures up by 0.08% to $62.89 per barrel [4] - Despite the slight rebound, both benchmarks recorded weekly declines, influenced by concerns over OPEC+ potentially resuming production increases [4] - The U.S. inflation data has improved risk appetite, which may positively impact economic growth and energy demand [4] Currency Market - The U.S. dollar remained stable against major currencies, with January inflation data suggesting the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates unchanged [5] - The Japanese yen experienced its strongest weekly gain in about 15 months, supported by political stability following the recent election [6] - The Australian dollar has shown significant performance, becoming the best-performing major currency of 2026 so far, despite a slight decline at the end of the New York session [7]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The recent decline in gold prices is attributed to macroeconomic data reinforcing high interest rate expectations and tightening market liquidity, leading to concentrated selling [1][6] - The drop in gold prices is driven by a combination of liquidity and interest rate expectations, with employment data acting as a trigger point [1][6] - Short-term gold price movements will be heavily influenced by inflation data and interest rate path expectations, with potential for technical recovery if inflation weakens unexpectedly [1][6] Group 2: Gold Technical Analysis - The short-term momentum for gold has reversed, indicating a new downtrend phase, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) dropping to 41.57, suggesting a dominant bearish sentiment [2][7] - Key support levels for gold are identified at $4850 and the 200-period moving average at $4956.476, with a failure to hold these levels potentially opening further downside [2][7] - The overall upward trend for gold is under significant threat, and short-term trading strategies should focus on selling into rebounds while monitoring resistance levels between $5020 and $5070 [2][7] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - The International Energy Agency (IEA) reports a significant deterioration in the global oil market supply-demand structure, with a projected increase in global oil inventories by 477 million barrels by 2025, the fastest accumulation since 2020 [3][8] - The IEA has revised down the expected growth in global oil demand for 2025 to an average of 769,000 barrels per day, reflecting economic uncertainties and high oil prices suppressing consumption [3][8] Group 4: Oil Technical Analysis - The daily chart indicates that oil prices have ended a series of upward closes, with a large bearish candlestick formation, while the moving average system remains in a bullish alignment [4][9] - Short-term oil price movements are expected to exhibit a range-bound pattern, with a likelihood of breaking upward from the upper range resistance [4][9] - Recommended trading strategies for oil suggest focusing on buying on dips while monitoring resistance levels between $64.0 and $65.0 [4][9]

Core Viewpoint - The current expectation is for a price increase of 130 yuan per ton for oil, translating to an increase of 0.09-0.11 yuan per liter, which is significantly above the adjustment threshold, indicating a substantial rise in oil prices [1] Group 1: Oil Price Adjustments - The anticipated increase in domestic oil prices has been reduced by 10 yuan per ton due to a decrease in international oil prices, which is a positive sign despite the overall upward trend [3] - The new round of oil price adjustments is scheduled for February 24 at 24:00 [4] Group 2: International Oil Market Dynamics - International oil prices experienced a significant drop, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) down by 3.05% to $62.91 per barrel and Brent crude down by 2.97% to $67.55 per barrel [3] - The EIA reported an increase in crude oil inventories by 8.53 million barrels, contrary to market expectations of a decrease, reinforcing concerns about weak oil demand [3] - The IEA has revised its global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 down from 930,000 barrels per day to 850,000 barrels per day, indicating a slowdown in demand growth and ongoing supply surplus [4] Group 3: Regional Fuel Prices - Current fuel prices across various regions in China show a range for 92 octane gasoline from 6.76 to 8.05 yuan per liter, with 95 octane gasoline ranging from 7.23 to 9.54 yuan per liter [5][6]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The gold price experienced a significant drop of over $70, reaching approximately $4987 per ounce before rebounding to around $5030 per ounce [1][7] - On February 9, gold traded at approximately $5040 per ounce, with a daily increase of about 0.7%, previously touching $5046 per ounce [1][7] - The ongoing escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict is expected to support gold prices through increased safe-haven demand, energy supply uncertainty, and geopolitical risk premiums [1][7] Group 2: Gold Technical Analysis - The gold market opened higher but faced resistance at the $5046 level, indicating that the recent price increase may be driven by short-term market sentiment rather than sustainable momentum [1][7] - The short-term trend for gold is characterized by a range-bound market, with key resistance levels at $5050 and $5090-5100, while support levels are seen at $4970-65 and $4930-20 [2][8] - The recommendation for trading is to focus on buying on dips and selling on rebounds, with short-term resistance at $5090-5140 and support at $4980-4930 [2][8] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - As of February 10, West Texas Intermediate crude oil was trading around $64.47 per barrel, with prices rising over 1% due to geopolitical tensions [3][9] - Concerns about potential disruptions in oil supply have arisen following a U.S. Department of Transportation announcement advising ships to avoid Iranian waters, as approximately one-fifth of global oil consumption passes through the Strait of Hormuz [3][9] - The European Commission has proposed a complete ban on services supporting Russian oil exports, aiming to limit revenue sources for the ongoing conflict in Ukraine [3][9] Group 4: Oil Technical Analysis - The daily chart indicates that oil prices have ended a series of consecutive gains, with a significant bearish candle formation [4][10] - The medium-term trend remains bullish, supported by a favorable MACD indicator, while short-term movements are expected to remain within a range of $65.50 to $62.20 [4][10] - The trading strategy suggests focusing on buying on dips and selling on rebounds, with short-term resistance at $65.5-66.5 and support at $63.0-62.0 [4][10]

Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices opened lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.43%, the Nasdaq down 0.52%, and the S&P 500 down 0.50% [2] Technology Sector - Most large tech stocks declined, with Google initially dropping over 7% and currently down over 3%, raising market concerns due to high capital expenditure guidance [4] - Amazon fell over 3%, Microsoft decreased by over 2%, and Tesla dropped over 1%. Apple and Meta experienced slight declines, while Nvidia saw an increase of 1.16% [4] Precious Metals - Spot gold decreased by 3.18%, trading at 4851.800, while spot silver fell by 15%, trading at 76.150 [4][7] Oil Market - Brent crude oil futures dropped by 2.58%, with the latest price at 67.67 [8] - West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures also fell by 2.43%, with the latest price at 63.56 [9]

Core Viewpoint - Domestic refined oil prices have begun their second round of increases in 2026, with gasoline and diesel prices rising by 205 yuan and 195 yuan per ton, respectively, effective from February 3 [2][3]. Price Adjustments - The recent price adjustment reflects a 4.69% change rate based on the average price of crude oil, with specific increases of 0.15 yuan per liter for 89-octane gasoline, 0.16 yuan for 92-octane, 0.17 yuan for 95-octane, and 0.17 yuan for 0 diesel [3]. - The cost of fuel for a small private car with a 50-liter tank will increase by approximately 8 yuan when filled, leading to an estimated total increase of 18 yuan for a monthly driving distance of 2,000 kilometers [4]. Geopolitical Influences - Recent geopolitical tensions, particularly between the U.S. and Iran, have contributed to rising oil prices, with U.S. crude prices fluctuating between 55 and 66 dollars per barrel, and Brent crude surpassing 70 dollars per barrel for the first time since September 2025 [5]. - Iran's significant oil reserves and production capacity, along with its strategic location in the Middle East, make it a critical player in global oil supply, with potential disruptions from military conflicts posing risks to oil transport through the Strait of Hormuz [5]. Future Price Expectations - Analysts predict that the next round of domestic refined oil price adjustments may see a decrease of around 20 yuan per ton, depending on the geopolitical situation and international oil price trends [2][6]. - The uncertainty surrounding U.S.-Iran negotiations may lead to narrow fluctuations in international oil prices, with expectations of a weak overall trend for crude oil prices throughout the year [6][7].