Group 1 - EIA reported a decrease in crude oil inventories by 6.014 million barrels to 421 million barrels, marking the largest decline since the week of June 13, 2025, against market expectations of a decrease of 1.759 million barrels and a previous value of 3.036 million barrels [1] - Strategic Petroleum Reserve increased by 223,000 barrels to 40.34 million barrels, the highest level since the week of October 14, 2022 [1] - U.S. domestic crude oil production rose by 55,000 barrels to 13.382 million barrels per day, the largest increase since the week of March 7, 2025 [1] Group 2 - The four-week average supply of U.S. crude oil products was 21.093 million barrels per day, an increase of 3.34% compared to the same period last year [1] - U.S. commercial crude oil imports, excluding the Strategic Reserve, decreased by 423,000 barrels per day to 6.497 million barrels per day [1] - U.S. crude oil exports increased by 795,000 barrels per day to 4.372 million barrels per day, the highest level since the week of April 11, 2025 [1] Group 3 - As of August 21, WTI crude oil was reported at $62.99 per barrel, an increase of 0.24%, while Brent crude was at $67.13 per barrel, an increase of 0.13% [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the overnight and spot market conditions of various commodities, including palm oil, soybeans, and grains. It also covers important fundamental information such as weather conditions in the US and their impact on crops, international and domestic supply - demand dynamics, macroeconomic news, and capital flows in the futures market. The information is useful for investors to understand the current situation and potential trends in the commodities market [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Overnight Market Conditions - The closing price of BMD palm oil 10 was 4254.00, with a previous - day increase of 0.31%. Brent 10 on ICE closed at 66.32, down 0.14% previously and up 0.15% overnight. NYMEX crude oil 09 closed at 63.35, down 0.74% previously and 0.31% overnight. CBOT soybeans 11 closed at 986.50, down 0.80% previously and 0.65% overnight [1]. - The latest value of the US dollar index was 98.25, up 0.19% in ten days. The CNY/USD exchange rate was 7.1382, up 0.05%. The MYR/USD exchange rate was 4.2218, up 0.11%. The IDR/USD exchange rate was 16186, down 0.40%. The BRL/USD exchange rate was 5.3808, down 0.73%. The ARS/USD exchange rate was 1325.000, down 0.08%. The SGD/USD exchange rate was 1.2812, down 0.14% [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Conditions - For DCE palm oil 2509, the spot price in North China was 9170 with a basis of 120 and no daily change; in East China, it was 9030 with a basis of - 20 and no change; in South China, it was 9030 with a basis of - 20 and no change [2]. - For DCE soybean oil 2509, in Shandong, the spot price was 8500 with a basis of 84, down 26; in Jiangsu, it was 8600 with a basis of 184, down 96; in Guangdong, it was 8620 with a basis of 204, up 24; in Tianjin, it was 8520 with a basis of 104, down 36 [2]. - For DCE soybean meal 2509, in Shandong, the spot price was 2910 with a basis of - 125, up 2; in Jiangsu, it was 2920 with a basis of - 115, down 8; in Guangdong, it was 2910 with a basis of - 125, down 18; in Tianjin, it was 3000 with a basis of - 35, up 12 [2]. - The CNF quote for imported Brazilian soybeans was 481 dollars/ton with a CNF premium of 315 cents/bushel [2]. 3.3 Important Fundamental Information 3.3.1 Production Area Weather - From August 13 - 17, temperatures and precipitation in major US soybean - producing states are generally high. The western part of the US Midwest has active rainfall, while the eastern part is relatively dry. Rainfall is beneficial for corn and soybean crops in the northern Great Plains and Midwest [3][5][6]. - In the past week, US temperatures were 1 - 8°F lower than normal, and rainfall in the northwest, northern Great Plains, and southeast was 10 - 85 mm higher than normal. In the next 15 days, US temperatures will be 2 - 6°F higher than normal, and the northern Great Plains and Midwest are expected to have 20 - 75 mm more rainfall than normal [6]. 3.3.2 International Supply - Demand - ITS data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 10 are estimated at 482,576 tons, a 23.3% increase from the same period last month [8]. - As of the week ending August 5, CBOT soybean long positions decreased by 5999 to 156793, and short positions increased by 22377 to 195953. Similar changes occurred in other related contracts [8]. - The barge freight rate in the middle of the Mississippi River decreased by 5% week - on - week. A section of the Mississippi River was closed, which may delay the transportation of grains from Midwest farms to the US Gulf [8]. - Canada's rapeseed exports in the week ending July 31 decreased by 52.1% to 26,400 tons. From August 1, 2024, to July 31, 2025, exports were 9.5186 million tons, a 38.8% increase from the previous year. As of July 31, the commercial inventory was 1.1432 million tons [9]. - France raised its rapeseed production forecast for this year from 4.2 million tons to 4.5 million tons. Russia is expected to produce 5 million tons of rapeseed this year [9]. - The Baltic Dry Index rose for three consecutive days, with the Capesize and Supramax indices driving the increase [10]. 3.3.3 Domestic Supply - Demand - On August 8, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 39,933 tons, a 227% increase from the previous trading day [11]. - On August 8, the trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was 52,500 tons, a decrease of 53,100 tons from the previous day. The operating rate of domestic oil mills was 64.17%, up 1.56% from the previous day [11]. - From August 2 - 8, the actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills was 2.1775 million tons, with an operating rate of 61.21%, 35,500 tons lower than expected [11]. - As of the week ending August 8, the profit of self - breeding and self - raising pigs was 45.13 yuan/head, and the loss of purchasing piglets for breeding was 134.14 yuan/head [12]. - In July 2025, the average monthly price of lean - type white - striped pork in 16 provinces was 19.14 yuan/kg, a 3.1% increase month - on - month and a 22.7% decrease year - on - year [12]. - On August 8, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 113.94, up 0.02 points from the previous day. The average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 20.41 yuan/kg, down 0.2% from the previous day [13]. 3.4 Macroeconomic News 3.4.1 International News - Fed Governor Bowman believes that recent downward revisions to employment growth data highlight the need for the Fed to cut interest rates. She expects to support rate cuts in the remaining three meetings this year [15]. - St. Louis Fed President Mousalem said the Fed faces dual risks in achieving its inflation and employment goals [15]. - The WTO predicts that the global goods trade volume will grow by 0.9% in 2025, up from the previous forecast of - 0.2% [15]. 3.4.2 Domestic News - On August 8, the USD/CNY exchange rate was 7.1382, up 37 points (RMB depreciation) [17]. - On August 8, the People's Bank of China conducted 122 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 4 billion yuan. For the week, there was a net withdrawal of 536.5 billion yuan [17]. - China's CPI in July was 0% year - on - year, better than the expected - 0.1% [17]. 3.5 Capital Flows - On August 8, 2025, the net capital outflow from the futures market was 8.126 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net inflow of 1.801 billion yuan, including 1.151 billion yuan in agricultural products, 827 million yuan in chemicals, a net outflow of 777 million yuan in black - series commodities, and 601 million yuan in metals. Stock index futures had a net outflow of 9.927 billion yuan [20]. - Commodities with large capital inflows included lithium carbonate (1.3 billion yuan), gold (1.152 billion yuan), and crude oil (464 million yuan). Those with large outflows included CSI 500 stock index futures (- 2.388 billion yuan) and CSI 300 stock index futures (- 3.029 billion yuan) [19].

Core Insights - The article discusses the impact of the US-China trade war on the energy market, particularly the sharp decline in China's imports of energy products from the US and the subsequent effects on the global energy supply chain and geopolitical landscape [1][2]. Group 1: Trade War Dynamics - The Trump administration imposed tariffs to pressure China, which led to China retaliating with tariffs on US energy products, resulting in a loss of competitive advantage for the US in the Chinese market [2]. - As China shifted its energy imports towards other countries, especially Russia and Saudi Arabia, the global energy market dynamics have changed significantly [2]. Group 2: China's Energy Strategy - The article highlights China's progress in energy diversification, showcasing its ability to enhance energy security in response to the trade war [2][4]. - The trade war serves as a lesson that unilateral strategies in a globalized context can backfire, severely impacting the US energy sector [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that gold prices are experiencing a downward trend due to the strengthening of the US dollar and improved risk sentiment following a trade agreement between the US and EU [1][2] - Gold prices recently fell to a near three-week low, trading around $3310 per ounce, with a significant drop of $138 from a recent high of $3438 [2] - The market is currently volatile, with expectations for significant price movements in the coming days due to upcoming economic data releases [1][2] Group 2 - The US crude oil price is trading around $66.97 per barrel, having increased nearly 3% recently, influenced by the US-EU trade agreement and geopolitical developments [1] - Technical analysis suggests that crude oil may have some upward potential, with a focus on resistance levels around $69 [3] - Day trading strategies for both gold and oil suggest short positions for gold and long positions for oil, with specific target prices and stop-loss levels outlined [3][4]

Group 1 - Gold prices have surged back to the 3400 level, primarily driven by factors such as the extension of US tariffs and ongoing trade negotiations with the EU and China [3][5] - The market is reacting to speculation around potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the political situation surrounding Chairman Powell, which has created uncertainty and volatility [3][5] - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has also contributed to the bullish sentiment in gold, as increased military aid to Ukraine from the US and Europe continues to escalate tensions [3][5] Group 2 - Technical analysis indicates that gold has broken through the 3375-3380 resistance level and is now testing the 3400 mark, with potential upward targets of 3420-425 and possibly reaching historical highs around 3500 [5][7] - Silver prices are following gold's upward trend, having reached an annual high, but caution is advised as the market enters a phase where chasing prices is not recommended [7][9] - The US dollar index has shown fluctuations, currently approaching the 97 level, with expectations of a potential upward adjustment targeting 99 and beyond [9] Group 3 - Crude oil prices are moving in the opposite direction to gold, nearing critical support levels around 64-65, with a bullish outlook as long as these levels hold [11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of stop-loss strategies in trading, suggesting that holding onto losing positions is always a mistake [1] - Gold prices experienced fluctuations last week, opening at 3364, reaching a high of 3377, a low of 3309, and closing around 3350 [1][3] - The market is currently in a state of volatility, with potential for both upward and downward movements, particularly focusing on resistance levels at 3360-65 and 3375-80, and a significant level at 3400 [3][4] Group 2 - The analysis indicates that the gold market is undergoing a "big sweep" phase, with rapid changes in market sentiment, necessitating caution against sudden one-sided movements [3][4] - The international silver market is also experiencing high volatility, with resistance levels at 38.4 and 39.2, and a key support level at 37.3 [3] - The Shanghai gold and silver markets are following similar trends, with specific resistance and support levels identified for trading strategies [6] Group 3 - The U.S. dollar index is performing as expected, maintaining a bullish trend with resistance levels at 99 and 100, and support at 98 [7] - U.S. stock futures are showing strength, with the S&P 500 facing resistance at 6320, 6390, and 6480 [8]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The gold market is experiencing significant volatility, with recent movements indicating a lack of trend continuation for both bullish and bearish positions [1][5][6] - Key support levels for gold are identified at 3320 and 3300, while resistance is noted at 3340-43 and the CPI data high at 3360 [5][6] - A recent trading strategy involved entering long positions at 3323, with a focus on monitoring the 3340-43 resistance area for potential profit-taking [5][14] Group 2: Silver Market Insights - The international silver market has shown a downward trend, with recent positions taken at 39.05-10 indicating a bearish outlook, targeting a first goal of 37.3 [5][6] - The strategy for silver includes holding short positions while monitoring for potential rebounds near the identified support levels [5][6] Group 3: Oil Market Developments - The crude oil market has shown a bullish trend, with recent trading strategies indicating a buy position around 64-65, targeting a breakout above 70 [9][11][22] - Profit-taking occurred at the 70 mark, with plans to re-enter long positions on any significant pullbacks [11][22] Group 4: Currency Market Trends - The US dollar index has recently broken through key resistance levels, indicating a bullish sentiment, with expectations for further upward movement [8] - The analysis suggests that the ability of the dollar to maintain its upward trajectory will depend on breaking through the April lows and the downward trend established since 101 [6][8] Group 5: Stock Market Performance - The US stock market experienced a significant decline, with futures indicating a bearish outlook for major indices such as the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq [7] - A strategy was implemented to enter short positions on the S&P futures above 6290, with stop-loss measures in place to manage risk [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of stop-loss strategies in trading, suggesting that holding onto losing positions is always a mistake [1] - International gold prices showed a significant upward trend, with a weekly opening at 3336.9, reaching a high of 3374, and a notable increase of nearly 100 dollars from the 3382 level [1][3] - The market is currently observing a bullish sentiment in gold, with key support levels identified at 3350-3345 and 3330-3325, while the critical resistance level remains at 3400 [3][4] Group 2 - Silver prices have also surged, breaking through the annual high of 37.3, with a focus on the resistance level at 39-39.2, indicating a short-term bullish outlook [4] - The dollar index is at a critical juncture, having reached the April low and facing resistance from a long-term downward trend, which will determine the extent of the dollar's bullish movement [6] - Crude oil prices are expected to continue rising, with key support identified at 64-65, despite OPEC's production increase potentially having a limited impact [10]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of stop-loss strategies in trading, stating that having trading principles is crucial for success [1] - It highlights the significance of not holding onto losing positions, advocating for a strict stop-loss approach [1] Group 2 - The analysis of gold prices indicates that the key resistance levels are at 3345 and 3366, with potential for further upward movement if these levels are breached [3][6] - The commentary on silver suggests a strong upward trend, with a focus on shorting opportunities above the 38.2 resistance level [5] - The dollar index is expected to continue its bullish trend, with caution advised for potential short-term pullbacks [6][9] Group 3 - The report on crude oil suggests a bullish outlook, with targets set between 69 and 70, while also advising on strict stop-loss measures [6][8] - The S&P futures are being monitored for short positions, with a target range of 6120 to 6000, indicating a bearish sentiment in the medium term [6][9]

Group 1 - International crude oil prices are under pressure, with WTI trading around $66.90 per barrel, down over 2% from the previous trading day, and Brent crude futures closing at $68.64, down 2.21% [1] - Market sentiment is cautious due to concerns over global economic growth stemming from President Trump's tariff policies and the critical turning point in OPEC+ production policies [1][3] - The upcoming trade measures set to take effect on August 1 have raised investor worries about the potential suppression of global trade activity and economic growth, which could negatively impact oil demand [3] Group 2 - OPEC+ is expected to further ease voluntary production cuts in September, with eight member countries anticipated to gradually restore production capacity, indicating a potential oversupply in the global market [3][4] - The Federal Reserve's high interest rate policy is increasing borrowing and investment costs, indirectly suppressing oil demand by limiting the expansion willingness of energy-intensive industries [3][4] - The combination of high interest rates and impeded global trade growth is creating a "double pressure" scenario on oil prices, leading to a potential short-term downward risk [4]