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宏源期货品种策略日报-20250708
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-07-08 06:25
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information was found. 2. Core View of the Report - The market for ethylene glycol is currently in a weak state, with prices fluctuating at a low level and overall trading being rather stagnant. The downstream polyester production and sales are generally light, and the reduction in production scale is gradually increasing. At the same time, the supply is expected to increase as multiple ethylene glycol units complete maintenance. The cost support is weakening due to the easing of geopolitical conflicts and the weakening of crude oil trends. Overall, the ethylene glycol market is expected to remain weak in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - The mid - price of naphtha is $577.00 per ton on 2025/7/7, up 0.30% from the previous value; the upstream cost on 202/4/8 is 1.00, unchanged from the previous value [1]. - The ex - factory price of ethylene oxide in the East China region is 6,450.00 yuan per ton on 2025/7/8, unchanged from the previous value [1]. - The price of methanol is 4,42.02 yuan per ton on 202/24, unchanged from the previous value [1]. - The tax - included price of lignite in Inner Mongolia is 290.00 yuan per ton on 202, unchanged from the previous value [1]. - The settlement price of the main contract is 4,282.00 yuan per ton on 202, down 0.26% from the previous value; the settlement price of the nearby contract is 4,226.00 yuan per ton on 202, unchanged from the previous value [1]. - The market mid - price of ethylene glycol in the East China region is 430.00 yuan per ton on 202, unchanged from the previous value [1]. - The price difference between the near and far months is 56.00 yuan per ton on 2025/7/7, and the basis is - 11.00 yuan per ton [1]. - The comprehensive price of ethylene glycol is 1.00 on 202, down 2.00 from the previous value [1]. - The price index of polyester fiber is 8,750.00 yuan per ton on 2025/7/7, up 1.41% from the previous value; the price index of polyester chips is 10.00 on 202, up 1.72% from the previous value; the price index of polyester staple fiber is 6,710.00 yuan per ton on 2025/7/7, unchanged from the previous value; the price index of bottle - grade chips is 90.00 yuan per ton on 202, unchanged from the previous value [1]. Production and Operation Information - An Anhui synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol unit with an annual capacity of 300,000 tons is expected to resume operation this month after a mid - month shutdown and maintenance [2]. - The operating rate of the polyester industry chain: the operating rate of PTA factories is 87.30% on 2025/7/7, down 0.94% from the previous value; the operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms is 61.22% on 202, unchanged from the previous value [1]. - The production and sales of polyester filament, polyester staple fiber, and polyester chips are 1.0%, 0%, and 0% respectively, showing a downward trend [2]. Trade and Strategy Information - The mainstream negotiation price of external - market naphtha - based ethylene glycol is around $410.99 per ton on 202; the negotiation price of external - market ethylene - based ethylene glycol is around $144.15 per ton on 2025/7/4 [1]. - The post - tax gross profit of coal - based ethylene glycol is 1,800.00 yuan per ton on 202, up 24.67 from the previous value [1]. - In the trading strategy, the trading volume of the current stage is 160,000 lots, and the price is 2,092.90 yuan per ton [2].