ITG 国贸期货 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 | | | | | 聚酯数据日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0017251 | 2026/1/20 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | | 指标 | 2026/1/16 | 2026/1/19 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | SC | INE原油(元/桶) | 438. 8 | 437. 4 | -1. 40 | 成交情况: PTA:特朗普威胁就格陵兰问题对欧洲多国加征关税, | | | PTA-SC(元/吨) | 1829. 2 | 1851.4 | 22. 17 | 原油行情偏弱震荡。PTA产能运行率不高,PTA仍然微 | | | | | | | 幅去库存,支撑PTA行情及现货基差。 | | | PTA/SC(比价) | 1.5736 | 1. 5824 | 0. 0088 | | | PX | CFR中国PX | 879 | 879 | 0 | | | | PX ...

| 聚烯烃产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2026年1月20日 | | | | 张晓珍 | Z0003135 | | 品中 | 1月19日 | 1月16日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 東区 | | L2605收盘价 | 6667 | 6723 | -56 | -0.83% | 元/吨 | | L2609收盘价 | 6691 | 6723 | -32 | -0.48% | | | PP2605收盘价 | 6482 | 6496 | -14 | -0.22% | | | PP2609 收盘价 | ୧୧୬୧ | 6534 | -19 | -0.29% | | | L59价差 | -24 | 0 | -24 | #DI/\/0i | | | PP59价差 | -33 | -38 | 5 | 13.16% | | | LP05价差 | 185 | 227 | -42 | -18.50% | | | 华东PP拉丝现货价格 | 6330 | 6350 | -20 | -0.31% | | | ...

聚烯烃产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2026年1月16日 张晓珍 Z0003135 | 品种 | 1月15日 | 1月14日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | L2605收盘价 | 6785 | ୧୫୧୧ | -70 | -1.02% | 元/吨 | | L2609收盘价 | 6814 | ୧୫55 | -41 | -0.60% | | | PP2605收盘价 | 6592 | 6590 | 2 | 0.03% | | | PP2609 收盘价 | 6627 | 6633 | -6 | -0.09% | | | L59价差 | -29 | 0 | -29 | #DIV/0! | | | PP59价差 | -35 | -43 | 00 | 18.60% | | | LP05价差 | 193 | 265 | -72 | -27.17% | | | 华东PP拉丝现货价格 | 6420 | 6420 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 华北LLDPE现货价格 | 6700 | 6740 | -40 | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - PTA market experiences a tug - of - war between cost support and falling demand, with a slight price increase; PX market is at a critical juncture where speculative sentiment intersects with fundamental tension; MEG price is under supply pressure, but may be supported by policies [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Data Comparison - INE crude oil price dropped from 445.6 yuan/barrel on January 13th to 445.5 yuan/barrel on January 14th [2] - PTA - SC decreased from 1901.8 yuan/ton to 1878.5 yuan/ton, and PTA/SC ratio dropped from 1.5873 to 1.5802 [2] - CFR China PX decreased from 899 to 897, and PX - naphtha spread decreased from 341 to 336 [2] - PTA main futures price decreased from 5140 yuan/ton to 5116 yuan/ton, while the spot price increased from 5060 to 5075 yuan/ton [2] - PTA spot processing fee increased from 302.1 yuan/ton to 311.5 yuan/ton, and the disk processing fee decreased from 382.1 to 367.5 yuan/ton [2] - MEG main futures price increased from 3815 yuan/ton to 3867 yuan/ton; the domestic price increased from 3686 to 3711 yuan/ton [2] 2. Industry Chain Start - up Situation - PX start - up rate remained at 87.87%, PTA start - up rate at 77.40%, MEG start - up rate increased slightly from 61.12% to 61.15%, and polyester load remained at 87.80% [2] 3. Product Price and Cash - Flow Changes - POY150D/48F price increased from 6650 to 6715, and its cash - flow improved from - 161 to - 117 [2] - FDY150D/96F price increased from 6870 to 6920, and its cash - flow improved from - 441 to - 412 [2] - DTY150D/48F price increased from 7795 to 7830, and its cash - flow improved from - 216 to - 202 [2] - 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price decreased from 6520 to 6510, and its cash - flow decreased from 59 to 28 [2] - Semi - bright chip price decreased from 5780 to 5770, and its cash - flow decreased from - 131 to - 162 [2] 4. Product Sales Situation - Long - filament sales remained at 46%, short - fiber sales decreased from 93% to 68%, and chip sales increased from 50% to 79% [2] 5. Device Maintenance Dynamics - Sanfangxiang's 500,000 - ton device is restarting, and a 750,000 - ton device is under maintenance; some devices of Xinjiang Yipu, Jinyu, Tiansheng, and Guxiandao are either under maintenance or have reduced loads [2]

Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The PX market has experienced a sharp rise, mainly driven by speculative funds rather than fundamental changes. The futures market has dominated the price discovery mechanism, showing "irrational prosperity" characteristics. Although there are concerns about bubbles, the PX fundamentals are supported, and the market is expected to remain tight in 2026. The PX-naphtha spread has widened to $360, and the PX-mixed xylene spread has reached $155, significantly improving the economics of aromatics extraction. The domestic PTA maintains high operating rates, benefiting from stable domestic demand and the resumption of exports to India since the end of November. The polyester new device commissioning has pushed the polyester load to a high level, and the PTA consumption has remained high. The polyester demand has weakened seasonally, but the polyester factory's production cuts are not enough to form a negative feedback. The overseas ethylene glycol device maintenance plans have increased, and the ethylene glycol price is difficult to get effective support under the background of continuous decline in coal prices. With the commissioning of new devices, the market supply pressure continues to increase. The coal-based ethylene glycol device return has put great pressure on the market. Attention should be paid to the changes in domestic policies, and the ethylene glycol price may be supported under the background of carbon neutrality [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - INE crude oil rose from 437.5 yuan/barrel on January 12, 2026, to 445.6 yuan/barrel on January 13, 2026, an increase of 8.10 yuan/barrel. PTA spot prices fell from 5100 yuan/ton to 5060 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40.0 yuan/ton. The PTA main contract futures price fell from 5142 yuan/ton to 5140 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.0 yuan/ton. The PTA spot processing fee fell from 352.3 yuan/ton to 302.1 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50.2 yuan/ton. The PTA disk processing fee fell from 394.3 yuan/ton to 382.1 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12.2 yuan/ton. The PTA main contract basis fell from (58) to (69), a decrease of 11.0. The PTA warehouse receipt quantity increased from 100820 to 102122, an increase of 1302. The MEG main contract futures price fell from 3880 yuan/ton to 3815 yuan/ton, a decrease of 65.0 yuan/ton. The MEG internal market price fell from 3734 yuan/ton to 3686 yuan/ton, a decrease of 48.0 yuan/ton. The MEG main contract basis fell from -140 to -147, a decrease of 7.0. The CFR China PX price rose from 897 to 899, an increase of 2. The PX-naphtha spread fell from 346 to 341, a decrease of 5 [2] Industry Chain Start-up Situation - The PX operating rate remained at 87.87%, the PTA operating rate remained at 77.40%, the MEG operating rate remained at 61.12%, the polyester load remained at 87.80%, and there was no change in all indicators [2] Product Price and Cash Flow - Among polyester filaments, POY150D/48F fell from 6695 to 6650, a decrease of 45.0; POY cash flow increased from (166) to (161), an increase of 5.0; FDY150D/96F fell from 6890 to 6870, a decrease of 20.0; FDY cash flow increased from (471) to (441), an increase of 30.0; DTY150D/48F rose from 7780 to 7795, an increase of 15.0; DTY cash flow increased from (281) to (216), an increase of 65.0. The sales rate of polyester filaments decreased from 69% to 46%, a decrease of 23%. Among polyester staple fibers, 1.4D direct-spun polyester staple fiber remained unchanged at 6520; the cash flow of polyester staple fiber increased from 9 to 59, an increase of 50.0; the sales rate of polyester staple fibers increased from 81% to 93%, an increase of 12%. Among polyester chips, semi-gloss chips rose from 5770 to 5780, an increase of 10.0; the chip cash flow increased from (191) to (131), an increase of 60.0; the chip sales rate decreased from 72% to 50%, a decrease of 22% [2] Device Maintenance - This week, the 500,000-ton device of Sanfangxiang is in the process of restarting, and another 750,000-ton device will be overhauled recently, with the load gradually decreasing. The overhauls of Xinjiang Yipu and Jinyu devices in December are supplemented. Some factories such as Tiansheng and Guxiandao have reduced their loads [2]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints - PX market has seen a rapid increase, mainly driven by speculative funds rather than fundamental changes. The futures market dominates price discovery, showing "irrational exuberance" with self - reinforcing trends. Despite concerns about bubbles, PX fundamentals are supported, and the market is expected to tighten in 2026 due to new PTA capacity in India and organic demand growth [2] - PTA maintains high - level operation, benefiting from stable domestic demand and resumed exports to India since late November. The high gasoline spread supports aromatics, and new polyester installations keep polyester load high, leading to high PTA consumption and a strengthening basis [2] - For MEG, overseas plant maintenance plans increase, but with the continuous decline of coal prices and new plant production, market supply pressure is large. However, it may be supported by domestic policies under the carbon neutrality background [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data Comparison - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil price rose from 432.7 yuan/barrel on January 9, 2026, to 437.5 yuan/barrel on January 12, 2026, an increase of 4.80 yuan [2] - **PTA**: PTA - SC decreased by 0.88 yuan/ton, PTA/SC ratio decreased, CFR China PX increased by 5 to 897, PX - naphtha spread increased by 5 to 346. PTA main - contract futures price rose by 34.0 yuan/ton to 5142 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose by 65.0 yuan to 5035 yuan/ton. Spot processing fee increased by 39.9 yuan/ton to 352.3 yuan/ton, and the disk processing fee increased by 8.9 yuan/ton to 394.3 yuan/ton. The main - contract basis decreased by 3.0, and the number of PTA warehouse receipts increased by 600 to 100820 [2] - **MEG**: MEG main - contract futures price rose by 14.0 yuan/ton to 3880 yuan/ton, MEG - naphtha decreased by 5.5 yuan/ton, MEG internal - market price rose by 37.0 yuan to 3734 yuan/ton, and the main - contract basis decreased by 7.0 [2] - **Industry Operation Rates**: PX operation rate remained at 87.87%, PTA operation rate remained at 77.40%, MEG operation rate increased by 0.41% to 61.12%, and polyester load decreased by 0.32% to 87.80% [2] - **Polyester Products**: POY150D/48F price rose by 155.0 to 6695, POY cash flow increased by 87.0. FDY150D/96F price rose by 145.0 to 6890, FDY cash flow increased by 77.0. DTY150D/48F price rose by 35.0 to 7780, DTY cash flow decreased by 33.0. 1.4D direct - spinning polyester staple fiber price rose by 5 to 6520, polyester staple fiber cash flow decreased by 63.0. Semi - bright chip price rose by 45.0 to 5770, chip cash flow decreased by 23.0. Long - filament sales rate increased from 45% to 69%, short - fiber sales rate increased from 77% to 81%, and chip sales rate increased from 64% to 72% [2] 2. Device Maintenance - This week, the 500,000 - ton device of Sanfangxiang is in the process of restarting, and another 750,000 - ton device will be under maintenance soon, with the load gradually decreasing. In addition, the devices of Xinjiang Yipu and Jinyu in December are under maintenance, and some factories such as Tiansheng and Guxiandao have reduced their loads [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The PX market has experienced a sharp rise, mainly driven by speculative funds rather than fundamental changes. Although there are concerns about bubbles, the PX fundamentals are supported, and the market is expected to remain tight in 2026. The PTA market is affected by the approaching off - season of demand, with falling prices and weakening spot basis. The MEG market is under pressure from increased supply and falling coal prices, but may be supported by domestic policies in the context of carbon neutrality [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil price rose from 416.2 yuan/barrel on January 8, 2026, to 432.7 yuan/barrel on January 9, 2026, an increase of 16.5 yuan/barrel [2] - **PTA**: PTA - SC spread decreased by 97.91 yuan/ton, PTA/SC ratio decreased by 0.0571. PTA主力期价 rose 22 yuan/ton, while the spot price fell 35 yuan/ton. Spot and盘面加工费 decreased by 42.2 yuan/ton and 5.2 yuan/ton respectively. The主力基差 decreased by 7, and the number of PTA仓单 decreased by 534 [2] - **PX**: CFR China PX price rose from 886 to 892, and the PX - naphtha spread decreased by 13 [2] - **MEG**: MEG主力期价 rose 20 yuan/ton, MEG - naphtha spread increased by 3.8 yuan/ton, MEG内盘 price fell 20 yuan/ton, and the主力基差 remained unchanged [2] - **Industry Chain开工情况**: PX and PTA开工率 remained unchanged at 87.87% and 77.40% respectively. MEG开工率 decreased by 0.16% to 60.71%, and聚酯负荷 decreased by 0.08% to 88.12% [2] - **Polyester Products**: In the polyester filament market, prices of POY, FDY decreased, while DTY remained unchanged. Cash flows of POY, FDY, DTY increased. The long - filament sales rate decreased by 4%. In the polyester staple fiber market, the price of 1.4D直纺涤短 decreased slightly, the cash flow increased by 32, and the short - fiber sales rate decreased by 6%. In the polyester chip market, the price of semi - light chip decreased, the cash flow increased, and the chip sales rate increased by 17% [2] Device Maintenance - This week, the 500,000 - ton device of Sanfangxiang is restarting, and another 750,000 - ton device is under maintenance with decreasing load. Additional maintenance information includes Xinjiang Yipu and Jinyu devices in December. Some factories such as Tiansheng and Guxiandao have reduced their device loads [2] Trading Recommendations - **PTA**: The PX market is at a critical node where speculative sentiment and fundamentals are intertwined. The domestic PTA maintains high - level operation, and the polyester demand weakens seasonally, forming a negative feedback from polyester factory production cuts [2] - **MEG**: Overseas MEG device maintenance plans are increasing, and the inventory at East China ports remains at 750,000 tons. With the continuous decline of coal prices, the MEG price lacks effective support. However, it may be supported by domestic policies in the context of carbon neutrality [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The PTA market shows a slight increase due to the expectation of loose monetary policy despite the decline in crude oil prices. The PTA inventory is slightly reduced, and the spot basis strengthens. The PTA processing fee has increased. The PX market has experienced a sharp rise mainly driven by speculative funds, and its fundamentals are supported. The MEG market has a weakening basis, and the supply pressure is increasing due to new device production [2]. - The polyester load remains high due to the new polyester device production, and the PTA consumption is also high. The polyester demand is affected by the domestic season, but the reduction in production by polyester factories is not enough to form a negative feedback [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - INE crude oil price decreased from 428.2 yuan/barrel on January 7, 2026, to 416.3 yuan/barrel on January 8, 2026 [2]. - PTA主力期价 remained at 5150 yuan/ton, and the PTA现货 price increased by 20 yuan/ton. The PTA现货加工费 rose to 331.1 yuan/ton, and the 盘面加工费 was 381.1 yuan/ton [2]. - MEG: The spot price in Zhangjiagang's ethylene glycol market increased, and the futures price showed a strong - side shock. The basis negotiation continued to weaken [2]. Price Differences and Ratios - The PX - naphtha price difference was 366 dollars, and the PX - mixed xylene price difference reached 155 dollars [2]. - The PTA/SC ratio was 1.6550, and the PTA - SC was 86.48 yuan/ton [2]. Operating Rates - The PX operating rate was 87.87%, the PTA operating rate was 77.40%, the MEG operating rate was 60.87%, and the polyester load was 88.04% [2]. Cash Flows and Sales Ratios - POY150D/48F price increased by 35 yuan/ton, and its cash flow increased by 1.0. FDY150D/96F price increased by 35 yuan/ton, and DTY150D/48F price increased by 15 yuan/ton. The cash flows of POY, FDY, and DTY changed accordingly [2]. - The sales ratios of POY, FDY, DTY, polyester staple fiber, and polyester chip varied, with the polyester staple fiber sales ratio increasing by 49% and the polyester chip sales ratio decreasing by 1% [2]. Device Maintenance - A 1.2 - million - ton PTA device in the northwest was restarted after parking at the beginning of last week [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - PTA market has cost support and is in the process of inventory reduction, with a narrow upward trend in prices and a strengthening of the spot basis. The demand is gradually weakening, and the processing fee has declined. The PX market has experienced a sharp increase, driven by speculative funds, but there is also fundamental support, and the market is expected to remain tight in 2026. The domestic PTA maintains high - level operation, and the polyester load remains high, with increased market inventory hoarding willingness and a rapidly strengthening basis [2]. - The MEG market shows a continuous upward trend in futures prices, with the spot price in Zhangjiagang rising accordingly, but the basis negotiation is weakening. Overseas MEG device maintenance plans are increasing, but the market supply pressure continues to increase due to new device production. The price is difficult to get effective support under the backdrop of falling coal prices, but it may be supported by domestic policies in the context of carbon neutrality [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil price rose from 421.7 yuan/barrel on January 5, 2026, to 428.2 yuan/barrel on January 6, 2026, with an increase of 6.50 yuan [2]. - **PTA**: The PTA - SC spread increased by 56.76 yuan, the PTA/SC ratio increased by 0.0084. The PTA主力期价 rose from 5,046 yuan/ton to 5,150 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose from 5,030 yuan/ton to 5,080 yuan/ton. The spot processing fee decreased by 46.9 yuan/ton, and the disk processing fee increased by 7.1 yuan/ton. The PTA仓单数量 decreased by 2,238 [2]. - **MEG**: The MEG主力期价 rose from 3,732 yuan/ton to 3,838 yuan/ton. The MEG - naphtha spread decreased by 0.2 yuan/ton. The MEG内盘 price rose from 3,640 yuan/ton to 3,666 yuan/ton [2]. Industry Chain Start - up Situation - **PX**: The PX operating rate remained at 87.87% [2]. - **PTA**: The PTA operating rate remained at 77.40% [2]. - **MEG**: The MEG operating rate increased from 60.81% to 60.87%, with an increase of 0.06% [2]. - **Polyester**: The polyester load decreased from 88.10% to 88.04%, with a decrease of 0.06% [2]. Product Price and Cash Flow - **Polyester Filament**: The price of POY150D/48F rose by 25 yuan/ton, and its cash flow decreased by 27 yuan/ton. The price of FDY150D/96F decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and its cash flow decreased by 62 yuan/ton. The price of DTY150D/48F remained unchanged, and its cash flow decreased by 52 yuan/ton. The long - filament sales rate decreased from 50% to 5%, with a decrease of 45% [2]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: The price of 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber rose by 45 yuan/ton, and its cash flow decreased by 7 yuan/ton. The short - fiber sales rate decreased from 53% to 20%, with a decrease of 33% [2]. - **Polyester Chip**: The price of semi - bright chips rose by 25 yuan/ton, and its cash flow decreased by 27 yuan/ton. The chip sales rate remained at 47% [2]. Device Maintenance - A 1.2 - million - ton PTA device in the northwest was restarted, which had stopped at the beginning of last week [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the document [1] Report's Core View The report suggests that the polyester industry is facing increasing pressure during the off - season, with terminal negative feedback having an impact. PX and PTA prices are likely to continue to decline or remain weakly stable due to supply - side surpluses, weak demand, and potential inventory accumulation. Polyester prices may be stable or slightly increase, but high DTY inventory and supply recovery may offset some upward pressure [2][3][5] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary PTA & PX - On December 31, the PX main contract closed at 7260.0 yuan/ton, down 0.77% from the previous day, with a basis of - 212.0 yuan/ton. The PTA main contract closed at 5110.0 yuan/ton, down 0.66%, with a basis of - 10.0 yuan/ton. - Cost - end: On December 31, the Brent crude oil main contract closed at 60.91 dollars/barrel, and WTI at 57.41 dollars/barrel. - Supply - end: PX plant operating rate remains high, digesting the profit space brought by cost decline. PTA operating rate may remain stable, and the decline in upstream raw material costs may encourage manufacturers to maintain the current production rhythm. - Demand - end: PTA supply increases while demand decreases. The downstream off - season deepens, terminal orders weaken, and polyester factories' negative feedback leads to a stronger willingness to reduce production. - Inventory - end: PTA factory inventory may gradually accumulate, increasing the risk of price decline and squeezing processing fees [3][4] Polyester - On December 31, the short - fiber main contract closed at 6514.0 yuan/ton, down 0.76% from the previous day. The spot price in the East China market was 6535.0 yuan/ton, down 5.0 yuan/ton. - Demand: The MA15 trading volume in the Light Textile City was generally stable, indicating robust demand. - Inventory: The inventory days of polyester products vary. Future polyester prices may stabilize or rise slightly, but high DTY inventory and supply recovery may offset some upward pressure [5] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - PX futures: The main contract price decreased by 0.77%, trading volume decreased by 22.49%, and open interest decreased by 6.85%. - PTA futures: The main contract price decreased by 0.66%, trading volume decreased by 25.26%, and open interest decreased by 1.94%. - Short - fiber futures: The main contract price decreased by 0.76%, trading volume decreased by 4.27%, and open interest decreased by 13.81%. - Other products: Prices of various products in the industrial chain showed different degrees of change, and processing spreads also changed accordingly [6][7] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation Macro Dynamics - On December 31, STC in Yemen sought self - determination and independence, with conflicts with the Yemeni government. - The Fed meeting minutes showed that officials had serious differences, and most thought interest rates could decline with inflation. - OPEC+ was expected to continue to suspend the crude oil production increase plan [8] Supply - Demand (Demand) - On December 31, the total trading volume in the Light Textile City was 749.0 million meters, a month - on - month decrease of 3.6%, with long - fiber fabric trading volume at 581.0 million meters and short - fiber fabric trading volume at 169.0 million meters [9] 4. Future Price Trend Analysis Supply - end - Based on the decline in crude oil prices and the significant discount of PX basis, PX supply may be at a high level, and the PX plant operating rate shows no obvious reduction. PTA supply is relatively stable, but the impact of raw material cost changes on production needs attention [50] Demand - end - The trading volume in the Light Textile City is significantly lower than the short - term average, indicating weak demand in the terminal textile market, which may put pressure on the polyester operating rate and weaken the willingness to purchase PTA [50] Inventory - end - PTA factory inventory may face accumulation pressure due to weak downstream demand and stable supply, increasing the risk of selling off [51]