投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 聚酯数据日报 投资咨询号: Z0017251 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 2026/3/2 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | 指标 | 2026/2/26 | 2026/2/27 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | | INE原油(元/桶) | 483.6 | 488. 4 | 4. 80 | 成交情况: PTA:由于近几个月PTA月均加工费回升且PX货源充 | | SC | PTA-SC(元/陣) | 1745.6 | 1700. 7 | -44.88 | 足,部分PTA装置开始重启或计划提负荷,预估3月PTA | | | | | | | 月产量大概率创新高,中东问题恶化,关注下周原油 | | | PTA/SC(比价) | 1. 4967 | 1. 4792 | -0. 0175 | 市场走势。 | | PX | CFR中国PX | 931 | 932 | 1 | | | | ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 国贸期货股份有限公司 成为一流的衍生品综合服务商 装置检修动态:华东一套250万吨PTA装置预计2月10日开始停车,具体开车时间未定。 ·PTA现货价格 MEG内盘 PTA现货价格 -- PTA主力期货价格 县 8000 1700 9200 1500 7000 1300 8200 1100 6000 7200 900 5000 700 6200 500 5200 4000 300 100 4200 3000 -100 3200 -300 2000 2023-01 2021-01 2024-01 2026-01 2022-01 2025-01 2025-10 2025-12 2025-02 2025-04 2025-06 2025-08 数据图表 800 POY现金流 现货加工区间 -- 盘面加工区间 DTY到金流 FDY 现金流 800 涤短现金流 600 切片到 700 400 600 200 500 400 0 300 -200 200 -400 100 0 -600 2023-01023-02024-02024-02024-02024-020 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views - The Asian aromatics market shows a structural trend affected by geopolitical factors. The speculative sentiment in the Asian PX market has rebounded, and the PX price increased by $20 during the holiday due to the rise in crude oil prices. The polyester market has some factories facing cash - flow issues, and overseas PTA factories are under operational pressure due to poor profits. The domestic PX market has sufficient supply, but there will be a major turnaround season from March to May, which may lead to supply tightening. The PTA in China maintains high - level production, and domestic demand has declined. The tension in the Middle East may cause short - term energy price fluctuations. For ethylene glycol, the situation in Iran is uncertain, and the tariff increase may impact the global financial and trade environment. The production profit margin of naphtha cracking has declined, and the price of ethylene glycol is waiting at a low level. [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil price dropped from 493.3 yuan/barrel on February 24, 2026, to 488.3 yuan/barrel on February 25, 2026, a decrease of 5.00 yuan/barrel [3]. - **PTA**: PTA - SC decreased by 3.66 yuan/ton; PTA/SC ratio increased by 0.0040; PTA主力期价 dropped by 40.0 yuan/ton; PTA现货价格 remained unchanged at 5285 yuan/ton; 现货加工费 decreased by 12.5 yuan/ton; 盘面加工费 decreased by 12.5 yuan/ton; 主力基差 increased by 11.0; PTA仓单数量 remained at 113652 [3]. - **MEG**: MEG主力期价 increased by 10.0 yuan/ton; MEG - naphtha remained unchanged at (198.94) yuan/ton; MEG内盘 increased by 22.0 yuan/ton; 主力基差 increased by 7.0 [3]. - **PX**: CFR中国PX decreased from 933 to 929, and PX - naphtha spread decreased by 3 [3]. Industry Chain and Product Information - **开工情况**: PX开工率 remained at 87.18%; PTA开工率 increased from 74.58% to 76.40%, an increase of 1.82%; MEG开工率 remained at 62.37%; 聚酯负荷 increased from 76.36% to 76.46%, an increase of 0.10% [3]. - **涤纶长丝**: POY150D/48F remained at 7080; POY现金流 decreased by 7.0; FDY150D/96F remained at 7295; FDY现金流 decreased by 7.0; DTY150D/48F increased by 5.0; DTY现金流 decreased by 2.0; 长丝产销 increased from 3% to 17%, an increase of 14% [3]. - **涤纶短纤**: 1.4D直纺涤短 decreased by 10; 涤短现金流 decreased by 17.0; 短纤产销 increased from 6% to 57%, an increase of 51% [3]. - **聚酯切片**: 半光切片 decreased by 20.0; 切片现金流 decreased by 27.0; 切片产销 increased from 1% to 15%, an increase of 14% [3]. Device Maintenance - An East - China 2.5 - million - ton PTA device is expected to stop production on February 10, 2026, and the restart time is undetermined [3].

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 免 责 声 本报告中的信息均源于公开可获得的资料,国贸期货力求准确可靠,但不对上述信息的准确性及完整性做任何 张证。本报告不构成个人投资建议,也未针对个别投资者特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要,投资者需自行 断本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况,据此投资,责任自负。本报告仅向特定客户推 授权许可,任何引用、转载以及向第三方传播的行为均构成对国贸期货 期市有风险,入市需谨慎。 ITG 国贸期货 世界500强投资企业 国贸期货股份有限公司 成为一流的衍生品综合服务商 ITG国贸期货 | | | | | 聚酯数据日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号:Z0017251 | 2026/2/24 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | 指标 | 2026/2/12 | 2026/2/13 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | | INE原油(元/桶) | 476.8 | 460. 7 | -16. 10 | 成交情况: P ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is committed to the real economy, focusing on its existing industries and forming a business structure centered around two main fields: chemicals and transportation [2] Group 1: Chemical Industry - The new materials chemical business has a production base located in Wuhai City, Inner Mongolia, with established capacities of 300,000 tons/year for BDO and 360,000 tons/year for calcium carbide [2] - Future plans include expanding production capacities for lanthanum carbon and green electricity, as well as developing new material capacities for PBAT [2] - The company aims to become a leading integrated enterprise in BDO and biodegradable plastics on a global scale [2] Group 2: Transportation Industry - The rail transportation business focuses on key regions such as the Pearl River Delta, Yangtze River Delta, and provinces along the Belt and Road Initiative, including Yunnan and Sichuan [2] - The company is dedicated to the development of high-speed rail construction and urban subway projects [2] Group 3: Rubber and Chemical Fiber Industries - The rubber products and chemical fiber production bases are located in Sanmen County, with main products including rubber conveyor belts, V-belts, polyester chips, and polyester industrial yarns [2] - The company is recognized as one of the leading enterprises in the rubber conveyor belt and V-belt sectors in China [2]

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - PTA: The sentiment in the commodity market has declined. PX maintains fundamental resilience during its high - level correction. The PTA industry remains strong, with expected record - high production in January 2024 in China, no Spring Festival production cut plans, and no new capacity throughout the year. PX supply is still tight, and the domestic PTA high - operation rate and the limited negative feedback from polyester factory production cuts support the market [3]. - MEG: After a long - term slump overseas, the reduction of ethylene glycol exports from the Middle East has boosted market confidence. The supply contraction due to production line conversion provides room for price increases [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data Changes - **Crude Oil and PTA - related**: INE crude oil price increased from 464.2 yuan/barrel on February 9, 2026, to 476.1 yuan/barrel on February 10, 2026, a rise of 11.9 yuan/barrel. PTA - SC decreased by 48.48 yuan/ton, and PTA/SC ratio decreased by 0.0275 [3]. - **PX**: CFR China PX price rose from 900 to 909, and the PX - naphtha spread increased from 297 to 311 [3]. - **PTA**: The PTA主力期价 increased from 5192 yuan/ton to 5230 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose from 5115 yuan/ton to 5140 yuan/ton. The spot processing fee decreased by 2.8 yuan/ton, and the disk processing fee decreased by 4.8 yuan/ton. The PTA仓单数量 increased by 2004 [3]. - **MEG**: The MEG主力期价 decreased from 3739 yuan/ton to 3733 yuan/ton, and MEG - naphtha remained unchanged. The MEG内盘 decreased from 3635 yuan/ton to 3623 yuan/ton, and the主力 basis decreased by 3 [3]. - **Polyester Products**: POY150D/48F price decreased by 25 yuan/ton, FDY150D/96F decreased by 10 yuan/ton, DTY150D/48F remained unchanged. The cash - flow of POY, FDY, DTY, polyester staple fiber, and polyester chips all decreased to varying degrees [3]. 3.2 Industry Chain Start - up Situation - PX start - up rate remained at 85.92%, PTA start - up rate remained at 76.73%, MEG start - up rate increased from 61.67% to 62.36%, and polyester load decreased from 77.49% to 77.26% [3]. 3.3 Production and Sales Situation - The long - filament production and sales rate increased from 12% to 13%, the short - fiber production and sales rate decreased from 41% to 39%, and the polyester chip production and sales rate increased from 22% to 23% [3]. 3.4 Device Maintenance Dynamics - A 250 - million - ton PTA device in East China is expected to stop production on February 10, 2026, and the specific restart time is undetermined [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - PX maintains fundamental resilience during high - level corrections. Despite a decline in the PX - naphtha spread to $335 per ton, it remains at a healthy level. The supply of PX is still tight, and the downstream PTA industry is continuously strong. The reduction in production by polyester factories has a limited negative feedback on PTA [3]. - The reduction in ethylene glycol exports from the Middle East after a long - term slump has boosted market confidence. The supply contraction has opened up room for price increases in ethylene glycol [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Data - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil price decreased from 465.4 yuan/barrel on February 6th to 464.2 yuan/barrel on February 9th, a change of - 1.20 yuan/barrel [3]. - **PTA**: PTA - SC increased from 1783.9 yuan to 1818.6 yuan, a change of 34.72 yuan; PTA/SC ratio increased from 1.5274 to 1.5391, a change of 0.0117; PTA主力期价 increased from 5166 yuan/ton to 5192 yuan/ton, a change of 26 yuan/ton; PTA现货价格 increased from 5085 yuan/ton to 5115 yuan/ton, a change of 30 yuan/ton; 现货加工费 decreased from 412.2 yuan/ton to 406.2 yuan/ton, a change of - 6 yuan/ton; 盘面加工费 increased from 448.2 yuan/ton to 468.2 yuan/ton, a change of 20 yuan/ton; 主力基差 decreased from (72) to (75), a change of - 3; PTA仓单数量 increased from 103,568 to 104,168, a change of 600 [3]. - **MEG**: MEG主力期价 decreased from 3743 yuan/ton to 3739 yuan/ton, a change of - 4 yuan/ton; MEG - naphtha increased from (195.44) yuan/ton to (194.13) yuan/ton, a change of 1.3 yuan/ton; MEG内盘 increased from 3630 yuan/ton to 3635 yuan/ton, a change of 5 yuan/ton; 主力基差 decreased from - 102 to - 105, a change of - 3 [3]. - **PX**: CFR中国PX increased from 898 to 900, a change of 2; PX - naphtha spread increased from 294 to 297, a change of 4 [3]. - **Polyester Products**: POY150D/48F remained at 7005; POY现金流 decreased from 191 to 164, a change of - 27; FDY150D/96F remained at 7240; FDY现金流 decreased from (74) to (101), a change of - 27; DTY150D/48F remained at 8140; DTY现金流 decreased from 126 to 99, a change of - 27; 长丝产销 remained at 12%; 1.4D直纺涤短 increased from 6535 to 6575, a change of 40; 涤短现金流 increased from 71 to 84, a change of 13; 短纤产销 decreased from 56% to 41%, a change of - 15%; 半光切片 increased from 5860 to 5880, a change of 20; 切片现金流 decreased from (54) to (61), a change of - 7; 切片产销 decreased from 64% to 22%, a change of - 42 [3]. Industry Chain Operating Conditions - PX开工率 remained at 85.92%; PTA开工率 remained at 76.73%; MEG开工率 remained at 61.67%; 聚酯负荷 decreased from 78.14% to 77.49%, a change of - 0.65% [3]. Device Maintenance - An East China 3.6 - million - ton PTA device is currently reducing its load and is expected to be shut down for maintenance on the 15th. A South China 1.25 - million - ton PTA device is expected to be shut down on the 16th and is initially expected to restart in late March [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Commodity price volatility has significantly increased, and risk prevention and control should be emphasized before the Spring Festival. The sharp decline in precious metals has triggered market panic and dragged down the overall commodity trend. The short - term event is a catalyst for the adjustment of over - bought or over - sold assets, but long - term de - leveraging or interest rate cuts have not been priced in. In the long run, the macro - environment is still favorable for physical assets, and the fundamental situation of precious metals and some metal varieties remains unchanged. However, due to the complex geopolitical environment and approaching Spring Festival, investors are advised to pay attention to risk prevention [3]. Summary by Directory Part One: Main Views - **Macro - situation**: This week, domestic commodities weakened significantly, with industrial products and agricultural products falling. Precious metals tumbled under the impact of the expectation of a hawkish Fed chairman, dragging down non - ferrous metals and overall commodity sentiment. The US manufacturing PMI rebounded sharply, but the sustainability of demand improvement needs to be observed. The eurozone's CPI continued to decline, and the ECB is expected to keep interest rates unchanged. Geopolitical risks between the US and Iran have increased, driving up international oil prices. In China, policies to promote consumption during the Spring Festival have been introduced, and the central bank's credit policy has shifted to support high - quality development [3]. - **Commodity views**: Commodity price volatility has increased significantly. The sharp decline in precious metals was mainly due to profit - taking after over - heating in the early stage, and the increase in margin requirements exacerbated the decline. In the short term, the market needs to digest policy uncertainties and de - leveraging pressure, and volatility may continue. In the long term, the macro - environment is still favorable for physical assets [3]. Part Two: Overseas Situation Analysis - **US**: The January ISM manufacturing PMI far exceeded expectations, indicating that the manufacturing industry is emerging from the contraction. However, the ADP employment data was disappointing, and the employment situation remains sluggish, increasing the urgency of further interest rate cuts [5][8]. - **Eurozone**: The January CPI dropped to 1.7%, the lowest since September 2024. The ECB is expected to keep the key interest rate unchanged at 2%. Inflation shows significant regional and industry differentiation, and there are still potential price pressures [11]. - **Geopolitical**: Tensions between the US and Iran have escalated, with military confrontations in the Gulf region. The location and form of the nuclear talks have changed, and the risk of misjudgment has increased. Geopolitical risks have driven up oil prices, and the outcome of the talks will affect the energy market and financial markets [14]. - **Precious metals**: International gold and silver prices continued to plummet. The main reasons were the change in macro - policy expectations and the imbalance in the market trading structure. The increase in margin requirements exacerbated the decline. In the short term, volatility may continue, but in the long term, the fundamentals of precious metals remain supported [17]. Part Three: Domestic Situation Analysis - **"Happy Shopping for Spring Festival"**: The "2026 'Happy Shopping for Spring Festival' Special Activity Plan" focuses on creating a consumption ecosystem, with measures such as rewarding invoices, promoting trade - in, and providing financial support. 62.5 billion yuan in trade - in super - debt has been allocated to support holiday consumption [21]. - **2026 Credit Work Conference**: The central bank's credit policy has shifted to support long - term high - quality development, emphasizing stable growth in total volume, structural optimization, risk prevention, and coordinated efficiency. The policy aims to promote the stable and effective release of credit [22]. - **Policy - end**: The 2026 Central No. 1 Document focuses on agricultural and rural modernization, with changes in strategic positioning, poverty - alleviation mechanisms, and policy goals. The "Long - term Asset Input Tax Deduction Interim Measures" refines the VAT system, promoting economic high - quality development [24][25]. Part Four: High - Frequency Data Tracking - **Production end**: Chemical production load decreased slightly, with most product prices rising. Steel production increased slightly, but demand declined, and inventory continued to accumulate [32]. - **Demand end**: Real estate sales decreased week - on - week, and passenger car retail sales decreased year - on - year [39]. - **Price trends**: Most food prices fell this week, including vegetables, pork, and fruits [40].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PTA: The commodity market has declined significantly. PX maintains its fundamental resilience during the high - level correction. Due to the Iranian geopolitical risk, there is still a risk in crude oil prices. The downstream PTA industry remains strong. China's PTA production in January is expected to reach a new high, with no production cut plan during the Spring Festival. With no new PTA production capacity throughout the year, existing facilities will operate at full capacity to meet the growing polyester demand, providing a solid demand base for PX. The PX supply is still tight, with limited global effective capacity release. The domestic PTA maintains high - level operation, and the reduction in domestic demand and production cuts by polyester factories have a limited negative impact on PTA [3] - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): After the long - term slump of overseas ethylene glycol, the reduction of ethylene glycol exports in the Middle East has boosted market confidence. A 1.8 million - ton ethylene glycol plant in Jiangsu is currently operating at about 80% capacity. Affected by profits, the plant plans to switch a 900,000 - ton EG production line to produce polyethylene in mid - February. The duration of the conversion is undetermined. Driven by this news, speculative market demand has increased significantly. The supply contraction has opened up room for price increases in ethylene glycol [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data Changes - **INE Crude Oil**: The price increased from 463.5 yuan/barrel on February 5, 2026, to 465.4 yuan/barrel on February 6, 2026, with an increase of 1.90 yuan/barrel [3] - **PTA - SC**: The value increased from 1775.7 yuan/ton to 1783.9 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.19 yuan/ton [3] - **PTA/SC Ratio**: It rose from 1.5272 to 1.5274, an increase of 0.0003 [3] - **CFR China PX**: The price increased from 892 to 898, an increase of 6 [3] - **PX - Naphtha Spread**: Remained unchanged at 294 [3] - **PTA Main Contract Futures Price**: Rose from 5144 yuan/ton to 5166 yuan/ton, an increase of 22.0 yuan/ton [3] - **PTA Spot Price**: Decreased from 5100 yuan/ton to 5085 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15.0 yuan/ton [3] - **PTA Spot Processing Fee**: Decreased from 415.0 yuan/ton to 412.2 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.9 yuan/ton [3] - **PTA Futures Processing Fee**: Decreased from 459.0 yuan/ton to 448.2 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.9 yuan/ton [3] - **PTA Main Contract Basis**: Increased from (77) to (72), an increase of 5.0 [3] - **PTA Warehouse Receipt Quantity**: Remained unchanged at 103,568 [3] - **MEG Main Contract Futures Price**: Decreased from 3745 yuan/ton to 3743 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.0 yuan/ton [3] - **MEG - Naphtha**: Decreased from (184.58) to (195.44), a decrease of 10.9 [3] - **MEG Domestic Market Price**: Decreased from 3649 yuan/ton to 3630 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19.0 yuan/ton [3] - **MEG Main Contract Basis**: Increased from - 103 to - 102, an increase of 1.0 [3] - **PX Operating Rate**: Remained unchanged at 85.92% [3] - **PTA Operating Rate**: Remained unchanged at 76.73% [3] - **MEG Operating Rate**: Remained unchanged at 61.67% [3] - **Polyester Load**: Decreased from 78.66% to 78.14%, a decrease of 0.52% [3] - **POY150D/48F Price**: Increased from 7000 to 7005, an increase of 5.0 [3] - **POY Cash Flow**: Increased from 167 to 191, an increase of 24.0 [3] - **FDY150D/96F Price**: Remained unchanged at 7240 [3] - **FDY Cash Flow**: Increased from (93) to (74), an increase of 19.0 [3] - **DTY150D/48F Price**: Remained unchanged at 8140 [3] - **DTY Cash Flow**: Increased from 107 to 126, an increase of 19.0 [3] - **Filament Sales Volume Ratio**: Decreased from 22% to 12%, a decrease of 10% [3] - **1.4D Direct - Spun Polyester Staple Fiber Price**: Increased from 6525 to 6535, an increase of 10 [3] - **Polyester Staple Fiber Cash Flow**: Increased from 42 to 71, an increase of 29.0 [3] - **Staple Fiber Sales Volume Ratio**: Increased from 52% to 56%, an increase of 4% [3] - **Semi - Bright Chip Price**: Decreased from 5865 to 5860, a decrease of 5.0 [3] - **Chip Cash Flow**: Increased from (68) to (54), an increase of 14.0 [3] - **Chip Sales Volume Ratio**: Increased from 35% to 64%, an increase of 29% [3] 3.2 Device Maintenance Dynamics - A 3.6 million - ton PTA plant in East China is currently reducing its load and is expected to shut down for maintenance as planned on the 15th - A 1.25 million - ton PTA plant in South China is expected to shut down on the 16th and is initially expected to restart in mid - March [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report suggests that the expectations for PX and PTA have been realized, and a cautious approach should be taken as the market returns to reality before the holiday. Overall, PX prices may continue to decline, while PTA may stabilize or experience a slight rebound due to improving demand [1][51]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **PTA & PX**: On February 5th, the PX main contract closed at 7,200.0 yuan/ton, down 1.32% from the previous trading day, with a basis of -203.0 yuan/ton. The PTA main contract closed at 5,144.0 yuan/ton, down 1.42% from the previous trading day, with a basis of 6.0 yuan/ton. The cost side shows that the Brent crude oil main contract closed at 68.95 US dollars/barrel, and WTI closed at 64.47 US dollars/barrel. The demand side indicates that the total transaction volume of the Light Textile City was 8.18 million meters, with a 15 - day average transaction of 7.702 million meters [3]. - **Supply - side**: PX supply is expected to remain loose, with limited device maintenance plans and continuous supply pressure. For PTA, there are no obvious disturbance signals in the operating rate, the device operates stably, but price adjustments and basis narrowing indicate a possible marginal increase in supply. The overall supply environment is neutral, with no significant contraction signs [4]. - **Demand - side**: Polyester demand shows a warming trend. The operating rate is expected to benefit from the downstream recovery. The transaction volume of the Light Textile City has exceeded the recent average, reflecting the recovery of terminal textile orders, which may boost polyester consumption and support PTA demand. The improvement on the demand side will partially buffer the downward pressure on costs and turn the market sentiment of PTA positive [4]. - **Inventory - side**: PTA factory inventory may be in a moderate destocking stage. After the current price adjustment, the basis has strengthened, indicating the resilience of spot demand and controllable inventory pressure. If the demand side continues to improve, inventory is expected to be further digested, providing bottom support for prices [4]. - **Polyester**: On February 5th, the short - fiber main contract closed at 6,564.0 yuan/ton, up 0.06% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 6,555.0 yuan/ton, down 20.0 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a basis of -9.0 yuan/ton. The transaction volume of the Light Textile City (MA15) is stable in the range of 7.7 - 7.76 million meters, showing stable but no significant growth in terminal demand. The inventory of various polyester products is lower than the average of the past five years, and the inventory of DTY and POY has decreased week - on - week, reflecting low inventory pressure. Low inventory and stable demand may support prices, but the risks of increased supply and weak demand may limit the upside space [4][5]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **PX**: The main contract price of PX futures decreased by 1.32%, the trading volume decreased by 7.26%, and the open interest decreased by 4.28%. The CFR price at the main port in China remained unchanged, and the FOB price in South Korea decreased by 1.14%. The PX basis increased by 32.11% [6]. - **PTA**: The main contract price of PTA futures decreased by 1.42%, the trading volume decreased by 17.03%, and the open interest decreased by 1.47%. The CFR price at the main port in China remained unchanged. The PTA basis increased by 108.82%, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 6.45%, the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 166.67%, the 9 - 1 spread increased by 10.71%, and the import profit decreased by 0.65% [6]. - **Short - fiber**: The main contract price of short - fiber futures increased by 0.06%, the trading volume increased by 62.58%, and the open interest increased by 100.10%. The spot price in the East China market decreased by 0.30%. The PF basis decreased by 160.00%, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 45.00%, the 5 - 9 spread increased by 58.33%, and the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 89.29% [6]. - **Other products**: The prices of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil decreased, while the prices of CFR Japanese naphtha, ethylene glycol, polyester chips, polyester bottle chips, polyester POY, polyester DTY, and polyester FDY remained mostly unchanged. The processing spreads of most products remained stable, with only a few showing slight changes [6][7]. 3.3 Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation - **Macro - dynamics**: On February 5th, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that the Department of Labor resumed normal full - scale operation on February 4th, non - farm payrolls will be released on February 11th, and CPI data will be released on February 13th. On the same day, an expert seminar on the "15th Five - Year Plan for the Gold Industry (Discussion Draft)" was held in Beijing. On February 4th, Federal Reserve officials made statements about interest - rate cuts and inflation control [7][8]. - **Supply - and - demand - demand**: On February 5th, the total transaction volume of the Light Textile City was 8.18 million meters, a month - on - month increase of 10.69%, with 6.38 million meters of long - fiber fabric transactions and 1.82 million meters of short - fiber fabric transactions [9]. 3.4 Future Price Trend Judgment - **Supply - side**: PX supply may remain loose, with stable operating rates and no major device changes assumed. PTA supply shows that the devices are operating normally, and there are no significant changes in the operating rate [43][44][52]. - **Demand - side**: There are significant signs of improvement in polyester demand. The increase in the transaction volume of the Light Textile City indicates the recovery of downstream demand, which may drive PTA consumption [38][44][53]. - **Inventory - side**: PTA factory inventory may be relatively balanced. After the price adjustment, it may attract restocking demand, and the inventory pressure is limited [44][54].