装置检修动态: 西北一套120万吨PTA装置重启,该装置上周初停车。 ·PTA现货价格 - MEG内盘 基差 -- PTA现货价格 -- PTA主力期货价格 8000 - 1700 9200 1500 7000 1300 8200 1100 6000 7200 900 700 5000 6200 500 4000 5200 300 100 4200 3000 -100 3200 -300 2000 2023- 2023- 2024- 2024- 2024- 2024- 2025- 2025- 2025- 2026- 2025-01 2025-03 2025-05 2025-09 2025-07 2025-11 05 01 09 05 09 01 09 02 01 01 数据图表 800 现货加工区间 -- 盘面加工区间 ·DTY现金流 POY现金流 -FDY现金流 800 涤短现金流 切片现 600' 700 400 600 500 200 400 0 300 -200 200 -400 100 0 -600 2025- 2026- 2023- 2023- 2023- 2024- 2024- 2024- 20 ...

装置检修动态: 西北一套120万吨PTA装置重启,该装置上周初停车。 ·PTA现货价格 - MEG内盘 基差 -- PTA现货价格 -- PTA主力期货价格 8000 - 1700 9200 1500 7000 1300 8200 1100 6000 7200 900 700 5000 6200 500 5200 4000 300 100 4200 3000 -100 3200 -300 2000 2023- 2023- 2024- 2024- 2024- 2024- 2025- 2025- 2026- 2025-01 2025-03 2025-05 2025-07 2025-09 2025-11 05 01 09 05 09 01 09 02 01 01 数据图表 800 现货加工区间 -- 盘面加工区间 -DTY现金流 POY现金流 -- FDY现金流 800 涤短现金流 切片现 600' 700 400 600 500 200 400 0 03 300 -200 200 -400 100 0 -600 2023- 2023- 2023- 2024- 2024- 2024- 2025- 2025- 202 ...

聚酯淡季压力增强，关注终端负反馈影响 通惠期货研发部 成本端，12月31日，布油主力合约收盘60.91美元/桶。WTI收57.41美元/ 桶。需求端，12月31日，轻纺城成交总量为749.0万米，15 日平均成交为 871.47万米。 供给端 ：PX装置开工率维持高位，消化成本下滑带来的利润空间，PTA方 面，开工率或保持稳定，上游原料成本下行可能激励厂商维持当前生产节 奏，装置变动暂未释放明确减产信号，供应端整体呈现宽松倾向。 需求端 ：PTA供增需减，下游淡季深入，终端接单走弱，聚酯工厂负反馈 导致降负减产意愿加深，预计价格修复程度有限。 库存端 ：PTA工厂库存可能逐步累积，因需求不振导致出货速度放缓，而 供应端未见收缩，库存压力上升将加剧价格下行风险，尤其在高库存背景 下加工费易受挤压。 李英杰 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn www.thqh.com.cn 一、日度市场总结 1. PTA&PX 12月31日，PX 主力合约收7260.0元/吨，较前一交易日收跌0.77%，基差 为-212.0元/吨。P ...

| | | | | 聚酯数据日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0017251 | 2026/1/5 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | 指标 | 2025/12/30 2025/12/31 | | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | | INE原油(元/桶) | 436. 1 | 432. 2 | -3.90 | 成交情况: PTA:期货休市,业者观望为主,现货市场暂未闻成交 | | SC | PTA-SC(元/吨) | 1974.8 | 1969.2 | -5.66 | 。南美某国原油物流受阻,利好原油市场,但华东55 | | | | | | | 万吨聚酯工厂开始检修,预估PTA市场将处于成本支撑 | | | PTA/SC(比价) | 1. 6231 | 1.6270 | 0. 0038 | 与需求下降的多空消息博弈之中。 | | PX | CFR中国PX | 894 | 894 | 0 | | | | PX-石脑油价差 | 359 | 364 | ...

中观总览：12月，此前持续的行业景气分化格局发生扭转，制造业整体景气水平显著回升，官方制造业PMI重返 50.3%的扩张区间，主要得益于稳增长政策效应持续释放及节前备货活动拉动。然而，电机与化纤橡塑行业面临的 核心矛盾进一步凸显且路径分化：电机行业的主要压力从需求波动切换为剧烈的成本冲击，受国际铜价飙升影响， 行业在12月底至1月初出现罕见的集体涨价潮；而化纤橡塑行业则延续了"供强需弱"的结构性压力，叠加季节性生 产淡季，行业开工率维持低位，产品价格疲软，利润空间持续受到挤压。整体而言，当前产业链的挑战正从普遍 的需求不足，演变为更具结构性的成本重塑与供需再平衡。 化工下游利润承压，地产下游回暖 核心观点 细分产业： 化工：12月PX、PTA价格持续拉涨，聚酯产品因上游原材料上涨叠加下游需求疲软而跟涨乏力，中游纺织制造业 利润被严重挤压。当前中游纺织服装、服饰业已进入生产淡季，减产或成为未来方向之一。12月聚酯行业开工率 持续回落，1月预计将出现超5个点的回落。除淡季上游原材料价格上涨，当前上游企业原材料库存已处于偏高水 平，开工回落与高库存形成叠加效应，形成需求端的实质性拖累，或将压制全产业链利润空间。 宏 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX market sentiment is supported by the expectation of tight supply in the first quarter of 2026, with the PX - naphtha spread widening to $360 and the PX - mixed xylene spread rising to $244, which encourages PX producers to actively purchase MX for conversion. Demand remains robust, with high domestic PTA operation, benefiting from stable domestic demand and the resumption of exports to India since the end of November. The high gasoline spread also supports aromatics. New polyester installations keep the polyester load high, maintaining high PTA consumption, increasing market willingness for domestic products, and rapidly strengthening the basis. Although polyester demand weakens seasonally in China, the production cuts by polyester factories are insufficient to form a negative feedback. In the context of the commodity market's enthusiastic sentiment, PTA prices are significantly boosted [2] - Overseas ethylene glycol (MEG) plant maintenance plans are increasing, with two sets of MEG plants in Taiwan, China, with a total annual capacity of 720,000 tons, scheduled to shut down next month due to poor profitability, and Saudi Arabian MEG plants starting planned maintenance. The inventory at East China MEG ports remains at 750,000 tons. Against the backdrop of continuously falling coal prices, MEG prices struggle to gain effective support. With the successive commissioning of new plants, market supply pressure continues to increase. The return of coal - based MEG plants exerts significant pressure on the market. Attention should be paid to recent domestic policy changes, and MEG prices may receive support under the carbon neutrality background [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil price rose from 434.8 yuan/barrel on December 29, 2025, to 436.1 yuan/barrel on December 30, 2025, an increase of 1.3 yuan/barrel [2] - **PTA**: PTA - SC increased from 1962.3 yuan/ton to 1974.8 yuan/ton, an increase of 12.55 yuan/ton; PTA/SC ratio rose from 1.6210 to 1.6231, an increase of 0.0021; CFR China PX increased from 891 to 894, an increase of 3; PX - naphtha spread increased from 349 to 359, an increase of 11; PTA main futures price rose from 5122 yuan/ton to 5144 yuan/ton, an increase of 22 yuan/ton; PTA spot price rose from 5065 yuan/ton to 5100 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 yuan/ton; spot processing fee rose from 334.1 yuan/ton to 352.0 yuan/ton, an increase of 17.9 yuan/ton; disk processing fee rose from 391.1 yuan/ton to 396.0 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.9 yuan/ton; main basis rose from (63) to (50), an increase of 13; PTA warehouse receipt quantity decreased from 114,648 to 107,482, a decrease of 7,166 [2] - **MEG**: MEG main futures price rose from 3817 yuan/ton to 3847 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton; MEG - naphtha increased from (145.22) yuan/ton to (139.05) yuan/ton, an increase of 6.2 yuan/ton; MEG domestic price rose from 3687 yuan/ton to 3694 yuan/ton, an increase of 7 yuan/ton; main basis remained at - 140 [2] - **Industrial Chain Operating Rates**: PX operating rate remained at 86.28%; PTA operating rate remained at 74.63%; MEG operating rate remained at 61.76%; polyester load remained at 88.81% [2] - **Polyester Products**: POY150D/48F decreased from 6570 yuan/ton to 6545 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton; POY cash - flow decreased from (246) to (303), a decrease of 57; FDY150D/96F decreased from 6810 yuan/ton to 6760 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; FDY cash - flow decreased from (506) to (588), a decrease of 82; DTY150D/48F decreased from 7760 yuan/ton to 7745 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton; DTY cash - flow decreased from (256) to (303), a decrease of 47; long - filament sales rate increased from 40% to 41%, an increase of 1%; 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber increased from 6620 yuan/ton to 6640 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton; polyester staple fiber cash - flow decreased from 154 to 142, a decrease of 12; short - fiber sales rate increased from 52% to 54%, an increase of 2%; semi - bright chip increased from 5755 yuan/ton to 5760 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton; chip cash - flow decreased from (161) to (188), a decrease of 27; chip sales rate increased from 51% to 81%, an increase of 30% [2] 3.2 Device Maintenance Dynamics - A 1.2 - million - ton PTA plant in the northwest restarted after shutting down early last week [4]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - PTA: The PX market sentiment is supported by the expectation of tight supply in Q1 2026, with the PX - naphtha spread widening to $360 and the PX - mixed xylene spread rising to $244. PTA maintains high - level production, and the polyester load stays high due to new device launches. The PTA price is boosted by the overall commodity market sentiment [2]. - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): Overseas MEG device maintenance plans increase, but with coal prices falling and new devices coming into operation, the supply pressure is large. The price lacks effective support, though it may get support from domestic policies [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data Changes - **INE Crude Oil**: The price dropped from 442.7 yuan/barrel on December 25, 2025, to 441.8 yuan/barrel on December 26, 2025, a decrease of 0.90 yuan/barrel [2]. - **PTA - SC**: The value increased from 1934.9 yuan/ton to 2069.4 yuan/ton, a rise of 134.54 yuan/ton [2]. - **PTA/SC Ratio**: Rose from 1.6014 to 1.6445, an increase of 0.0431 [2]. - **CFR China PX**: Increased from 901 to 919, a rise of 18 [2]. - **PX - Naphtha Spread**: Widened from 361 to 377, an increase of 16 [2]. - **PTA Main Futures Price**: Rose from 5152 yuan/ton to 5280 yuan/ton, an increase of 128 yuan/ton [2]. - **PTA Spot Price**: Increased from 5050 yuan/ton to 5175 yuan/ton, a rise of 125 yuan/ton [2]. - **PTA Spot Processing Fee**: Decreased from 281.8 yuan/ton to 278.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.3 yuan/ton [2]. - **PTA Futures Processing Fee**: Rose from 363.8 yuan/ton to 398.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 34.7 yuan/ton [2]. - **PTA Main Basis**: Changed from (13) to (65), a decrease of 52 [2]. - **PTA Warehouse Receipt Quantity**: Decreased from 118,854 to 116,646, a decrease of 2,208 [2]. - **MEG Main Futures Price**: Rose from 3818 yuan/ton to 3846 yuan/ton, an increase of 28 yuan/ton [2]. - **MEG - Naphtha**: Changed from (147.79) to (141.98), an increase of 5.8 [2]. - **MEG Domestic Market**: Increased from 3653 to 3666, a rise of 13 [2]. - **MEG Main Basis**: Rose from 0 to 40, an increase of 40 [2]. Industry Chain Start - up Conditions - **PX Start - up Rate**: Remained at 86.28% [2]. - **PTA Start - up Rate**: Increased from 75.49% to 76.95%, a rise of 1.46% [2]. - **MEG Start - up Rate**: Remained at 61.50% [2]. - **Polyester Load**: Increased from 88.65% to 88.94%, a rise of 0.29% [2]. Product Price and Cash - Flow Changes - **POY150D/48F**: The price increased from 6440 to 6570, a rise of 130 [2]. - **POY Cash - Flow**: Improved from (352) to (333), an increase of 19 [2]. - **FDY150D/96F**: The price increased from 6730 to 6810, a rise of 80 [2]. - **FDY Cash - Flow**: Deteriorated from (562) to (593), a decrease of 31 [2]. - **DTY150D/48F**: The price increased from 7755 to 7760, a rise of 5 [2]. - **DTY Cash - Flow**: Deteriorated from (237) to (343), a decrease of 106 [2]. - **Long - Filament Production and Sales**: Increased from 41% to 48%, a rise of 7% [2]. - **1.4D Direct - Spun Polyester Staple Fiber**: The price increased from 6575 to 6690, a rise of 115 [2]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber Cash - Flow**: Improved from 133 to 137, an increase of 4 [2]. - **Staple Fiber Production and Sales**: Increased from 56% to 86%, a rise of 30% [2]. - **Semi - Bright Chip**: The price increased from 5720 to 5780, a rise of 60 [2]. - **Chip Cash - Flow**: Deteriorated from (172) to (223), a decrease of 51 [2]. - **Chip Production and Sales**: Increased from 49% to 55%, a rise of 6% [2]. Device Maintenance A 2.2 - million - ton PTA device in Ningbo, which stopped for maintenance in late November, is expected to resume operation on the 24th [2].

Core Viewpoint - The polyester market is experiencing price fluctuations driven by weak demand and rising costs, with upstream PX prices increasing and impacting the profitability of the industry [3][9]. Price Trends - In December, the polyester market prices initially fell to yearly lows, with polyester chips and polyester filament prices dropping to 5450 CNY/ton and 6225 CNY/ton respectively [9]. - By the end of December, prices for polyester short fibers and bottle flakes saw slight increases of 0.50% and 0.99% respectively, due to strong cost support from rising PX prices [9][12]. Profitability and Cost Dynamics - The profitability of the polyester industry has been negatively impacted, with upstream PX prices rising significantly, leading to a monthly gross profit increase of 350.72% for PX, while PTA's gross profit only increased by 0.3% [11][12]. - The polyester production sector is facing challenges as the weak demand from the weaving industry, with a utilization rate of only 61.5%, has resulted in an inability to absorb rising costs [11][12]. Market Conditions - The polyester industry is currently in a seasonal demand downturn, with companies preparing for potential inventory devaluation risks ahead of the Spring Festival [12]. - Despite the challenges, leading polyester manufacturers are expected to gradually stabilize and recover profitability as demand improves post-holiday [12].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - PTA prices continued to rise due to cost - support. Planned restarts and shutdowns of PTA capacities affected the spot basis. The polyester industry maintained a high load, and the demand was expected to be supported by factors such as the cancellation of India's BIS certification. [2] - For ethylene glycol (MEG), with coal prices falling and new device production increasing, the price was under pressure, but the demand was expected to be boosted by increased polyester export inquiries. [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data - **INE Crude Oil and PTA - SC**: On December 22 - 23, 2025, INE crude oil rose from 437.9 yuan/barrel to 440.9 yuan/barrel, and PTA - SC increased from 1857.7 yuan/ton to 1877.9 yuan/ton. [2] - **PX**: CFR China PX increased from 892 to 896, and the PX - naphtha spread decreased from 361 to 356. [2] - **PTA**: The PTA main - contract futures price rose from 5040 yuan/ton to 5082 yuan/ton, and the spot price increased from 4885 yuan/ton to 4955 yuan/ton. The spot processing fee and the on - paper processing fee also increased. [2] - **MEG**: The MEG main - contract futures price dropped from 3735 yuan/ton to 3623 yuan/ton. The MEG inner - market price decreased from 3633 to 3613. [2] 2. Industry Chain Operating Conditions - **PX**: The PX operating rate decreased slightly from 86.48% to 86.28%. [2] - **PTA**: The PTA operating rate decreased slightly from 74.77% to 74.49%. [2] - **MEG**: The MEG operating rate increased slightly from 60.43% to 60.67%. [2] - **Polyester**: The polyester load increased slightly from 88.41% to 88.58%. [2] 3. Product Conditions - **Polyester Filament**: POY, FDY, and DTY prices all increased, but their cash - flows showed different trends. The long - filament sales rate decreased from 62% to 36%. [2] - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: The price of 1.4D direct - spinning polyester staple fiber increased, and the short - fiber sales rate increased from 40% to 57%. [2] - **Polyester Chips**: The semi - bright chip price increased slightly, but the chip cash - flow decreased, and the chip sales rate decreased from 85% to 54%. [2] 4. Device Maintenance - A 2.2 - million - ton PTA device in Ningbo, which stopped for maintenance in late November, is expected to resume operation on December 24. [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - PTA prices rose due to cost support and good downstream polyester filament sales, and the market has factored in the positive supply - demand outlook for PX and PTA next year. Although PTA profit is under pressure, the economic benefits of integrated enterprises have improved significantly. The polyester load remains high, and demand is expected to be additionally supported by the cancellation of India's BIS certification. [2] - The price of ethylene glycol is difficult to get effective support due to the continuous decline of coal prices, and the market supply pressure continues to increase with the commissioning of new plants. However, the increase in polyester export inquiries is expected to support downstream weaving and keep the overall demand outlook optimistic. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data Changes - INE crude oil price dropped from 429.4 yuan/barrel to 426.6 yuan/barrel, a decrease of 2.8 yuan/barrel; PTA - SC increased from 1627.5 yuan/ton to 1781.9 yuan/ton, an increase of 154.35 yuan/ton; PTA/SC ratio rose from 1.5216 to 1.5748, an increase of 0.0532. [2] - CFR China PX price increased from 840 to 866, an increase of 26; PX - naphtha spread rose from 307 to 335, an increase of 28. [2] - PTA main contract futures price increased from 4748 yuan/ton to 4882 yuan/ton, an increase of 134 yuan/ton; PTA spot price rose from 4650 yuan/ton to 4750 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton. [2] - MEG main contract futures price dropped from 3767 yuan/ton to 3738 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29 yuan/ton; MEG domestic price decreased from 3667 yuan/ton to 3633 yuan/ton, a decrease of 34 yuan/ton. [2] 3.2 Industry Chain Start - up - PX, PTA, MEG start - up rates and polyester load remained unchanged, at 86.48%, 74.77%, 60.43% and 88.41% respectively. [2] 3.3 Product Cash Flow and Sales - Among polyester filaments, the cash flow of POY, FDY and DTY decreased by 89, 119 and 74 respectively, and the sales volume increased by 248% to 294%. [2] - For polyester staple fibers, the cash flow decreased by 24, and the sales volume decreased by 1% to 75%. [2] - For polyester chips, the cash flow decreased by 9, and the sales volume decreased by 28% to 88%. [2] 3.4 Device Maintenance - A 2.5 - million - ton PTA plant in East China is currently restarting and is expected to produce products soon. The plant stopped for maintenance around November 17. [2]