投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 IIC国贸期货 | | | | | 聚酯数据日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号:Z0017251 | 2025/10/10 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | 指标 | 2025/9/30 | 2025/10/9 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | | INE原油(元/桶) | 479.7 | 471.0 | -8. 70 | 成交情况: PTA:国际原油价格较节前波动有限,虽然华东330万 | | SC | PTA-SC(元/陣) | 1108. 0 | 1161.2 | 53. 22 | 吨(设计产能,实际360万吨)PTA装置计划外降负荷 | | | | | | | 至5成左右,但消缺天数可能仅一周左右,对市场提振 | | | PTA/SC(比价) | 1. 3178 | 1. 3393 | 0. 0214 | 效果有限。下游聚酯产销一般,需求不旺。 | | PX | CFR中国PX | 804 | 8 ...

| | | | | 聚酯数据日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号:Z0017251 | 2025/10/9 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | 指标 | 2025/9/29 | 2025/9/30 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | | INE原油(元/桶) | 492.6 | 479.7 | -12.90 | 成交情况: PTA:原油行情下跌,对PTA成本支撑减弱。节后220万 | | | | | | | 吨PTA装置计划提前检修,但对市场提振效果有限, | | SC | PTA-SC(元/陣) | 1072. 2 | 1108. 0 | 35. 75 | PTA现货充足。 | | | PTA/SC(比价) | 1. 2995 | 1. 3178 | 0. 0183 | | | PX | CFR中国PX | 817 | 804 | -13 | | | | PX-石脑油价差 | 209 | 219 | 10 | | | | PTA主力期价(元/吨) | 4 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - PTA: As domestic PTA plants gradually resume operation, PTA production is on the rise. However, PTA profits are still constrained by over - capacity and new plant commissions. Recently, with improved demand, delayed new plant commissions, and some enterprises reducing production to maintain prices, PTA processing fees show signs of recovery. High polyester loads without significant inventory accumulation indicate optimistic market demand, especially in exports. PTA's operating rate may further improve [2]. - Ethylene Glycol: The inventory of ethylene glycol at East China ports is 46.5 tons. The overall inventory continues to decline, and it is expected to further deplete. Although overseas imports are expected to decline, domestic plant commissions keep the ethylene glycol price under pressure. Polyester inventory is in good condition, and the downstream weaving load is rising [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data Comparison - INE crude oil price increased from 490.6 yuan/barrel on September 25, 2025, to 491.3 yuan/barrel on September 26, 2025, with a change of 0.70 yuan/barrel [2]. - PTA - SC decreased from 1112.8 yuan/ton to 1075.7 yuan/ton, a decrease of 37.09 yuan/ton; PTA/SC ratio decreased from 1.3121 to 1.3013, a decrease of 0.0108 [2]. - CFR China PX decreased from 817 to 814, a decrease of 3; PX - naphtha spread decreased from 211 to 206, a decrease of 5 [2]. - PTA main futures price decreased from 4678 yuan/ton to 4646 yuan/ton, a decrease of 32.0 yuan/ton; PTA spot price increased from 4585 to 4590, an increase of 5.0 [2]. - PTA spot processing fee increased from 213.5 yuan/ton to 222.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.0 yuan/ton; PTA futures processing fee decreased from 291.5 yuan/ton to 273.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18.0 yuan/ton [2]. - MEG main futures price decreased from 4246 yuan/ton to 4213 yuan/ton, a decrease of 33.0 yuan/ton; MEG - naphtha decreased from (133.89) yuan/ton to (135.48) yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.6 yuan/ton [2]. - MEG domestic price decreased from 4315 to 4294, a decrease of 21.0 [2]. 2. Industry Chain Operating Conditions - PX operating rate remained at 85.57%; PTA operating rate decreased from 78.12% to 77.23%, a decrease of 0.89%; MEG operating rate remained at 62.62%; polyester load decreased from 88.74% to 87.81%, a decrease of 0.93% [2]. 3. Product Data Polyester Filament - POY150D/48F increased from 6530 to 6605, an increase of 75.0; POY cash flow increased from (86) to (8), an increase of 78.0 [2]. - FDY150D/96F increased from 6720 to 6790, an increase of 70.0; FDY cash flow increased from (396) to (323), an increase of 73.0 [2]. - DTY150D/48F increased from 7840 to 7870, an increase of 30.0; DTY cash flow increased from 24 to 57, an increase of 33.0 [2]. - Filament sales decreased from 175% to 40%, a decrease of 135% [2]. Polyester Staple Fiber - 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber decreased from 6500 to 6495, a decrease of 5; polyester staple fiber cash flow decreased from 234 to 232, a decrease of 2.0 [2]. - Polyester staple fiber sales decreased from 88% to 60%, a decrease of 28% [2]. Polyester Chips - Semi - bright chips increased from 5725 to 5745, an increase of 20.0; chip cash flow increased from 9 to 32, an increase of 23.0 [2]. - Chip sales decreased from 152% to 38%, a decrease of 114% [2]. 4. Device Maintenance - Two PTA plants in South China with a total capacity of 5 million tons have reduced their loads recently due to weather conditions, and the recovery time is to be tracked [2].

近年来，在全球经济波动与产业结构调整的双重影响下，聚酯产业正经历着一场前所未有的利润重塑， 而期现结合这一"利器"，正成为企业稳住利润、保障经营的关键所在。 国贸化工总经理陈韬对当前行业形势有着深刻感受。他走访下游织造企业时发现，不少中小企业因利润 微薄而被迫缩减产能。 "目前，聚酯行业产业链集中度提高，聚酯成品出口快速增长，国际影响力进一步提升，但产业链利润 出现了明显下滑和转移的趋势。"陈韬坦言，在利润重塑期，原料价格大幅波动，上下游议价权转移。 此时，企业对原料与成品库存的精细化管控，以及通过期货工具稳定生产、降低亏损的操作能力，正面 临前所未有的挑战，产业企业正在想办法积极应对。 产业链利润上下游分化的现象，在数据上体现得更为明显。恒逸国贸研究总监王广前介绍，今年4月 初，聚酯产业整体利润压缩至历史低位。4月底至5月，上游环节利润出现短暂修复，但下游聚酯产品利 润仍未摆脱整体承压状态。当"产一吨亏一吨"的压力持续传导至产业链各环节，部分企业开始跳出传统 经营模式，以期现结合为核心寻找破局路径。 构建多元化套保体系 期现结合打开新空间 全产业链利润处于低位 企业压力倍增 走进福建地区的聚酯产业集聚区，无 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report expects PX, PTA, and PR to run strongly, with a view score of 1 for each [2] Core Viewpoints - International crude oil has risen to a seven - week high, and it is predicted that PX, PTA, and PR will run strongly [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - On September 24, 2025, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $64.99 per barrel, up 2.49% from the previous value; Brent crude oil was $69.31 per barrel, up 2.48% [1] - The spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $606 per ton, up 1.42%; the spot price of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB Korea) was $672 per ton, up 2.05% [1] - The spot price of PX (CFR China Main Port) was $812 per ton, up 0.95%; the closing price of CZCE TA main contract was 4,626 yuan per ton, up 1.54% [1] - The CCFEI price index of PTA inner - market was 4,520 yuan per ton, up 1.16%; the outer - market was $600 per ton, down 1.48% [1] - The closing price of CZCE PX main contract was 6,602 yuan per ton, up 1.10%; the closing price of CZCE PR main contract was 5,784 yuan per ton, up 1.15% [1] - The CCFEI price index of polyester bottle - grade chips was 5,750 yuan per ton, up 0.70%; the CCFEI price index of polyester chips was 5,725 yuan per ton, up 0.26% [2] Supply and Demand and Market Conditions - An 700,000 - ton PX plant in Northeast China has been under maintenance since September 18, expected to last about 45 days [2] - Geopolitical risks have increased, and overnight crude oil rebounded after a short adjustment. The cost - end oil market rebounded slightly, driving up PX cost momentum. However, there are still concerns about the domestic PX fundamentals, and the monthly spread is small [2] - The increase in PX supply due to short - process capacity increase and postponed maintenance is obvious, while the demand for PX has decreased more than expected due to the delay of new PTA plant commissioning and multiple PTA maintenance. The PX profit will remain low in the short term [2] - The cost support for PTA has recovered slightly. The typhoon has affected the operation of a PTA plant in Zhuhai, which is temporarily beneficial to the PTA market. But the end - of - month shipment pressure of production enterprises is large, and the polyester product sales are flat [2] - The polyester bottle - chip market has a warm - oscillating trend in terms of raw materials and futures. The supply - side quotation has risen, but the downstream terminal trading has weakened, and the trading atmosphere is light. Some bottle - chip plants have shut down briefly due to the typhoon, with limited impact on market supply [2] Production and Sales and Operating Rates - On September 24, 2025, the operating rate of the PX in the polyester industry chain was 85.57%, unchanged; the PTA plant load rate was 78.12%, down 1.26 percentage points; the polyester plant load rate was 87.73%, down 1.27 percentage points [1] - The sales rate of polyester filament was 80.65%, up 41.74 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 67.04%, up 18.96 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester chips was 143.48%, up 85.45 percentage points [1]

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 | | | | | 聚酯数据日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0017251 | 2025/9/26 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | 指标 | 2025/9/24 | 2025/9/25 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | | INE原油(元/桶) | 482. 3 | 490. 6 | 8. 30 | 成交情况: PTA:周三尾盘涤纶长丝产销149%附近、周四涤纶长丝 | | SC | PTA-SC(元/陣) | 1121. 1 | 1112.8 | -8. 32 | 产销175%,利好PTA市场。成本支撑增强,低加工费之 | | | PTA/SC(比价) | 1. 3199 | 1. 3121 | -0. 0077 | 下的PTA装置检修预期较强,PTA行情上涨。 | | | CFR中国PX | 812 | 817 | 5 | | | PX | | | | | | | | PX- ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given text Core View of the Report - The report predicts that PX, PTA, and PR will operate in a volatile manner in the short - term [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On September 25, 2025, WTI crude oil futures settlement price was $64.98 per barrel, down 0.02% from the previous value; Brent crude oil futures settlement price was $69.42 per barrel, up 0.16%. Naphtha spot price (CFR Japan) was $608.50 per ton, up 0.41%. The spot price of isomeric xylene (FOB South Korea) was $676.00 per ton, up 0.52%. The spot price of p - xylene (PX) CFR China Main Port was $817.00 per ton, up 0.57% [1] - **PTA**: On September 25, 2025, the closing price of CZCE TA's main contract was 4,678 yuan per ton, up 1.12%; the settlement price was 4,658 yuan per ton, up 1.30%. The closing price of the near - month contract was 4,640 yuan per ton, up 1.18%; the settlement price was 4,630 yuan per ton, up 1.58%. The domestic PTA spot price was 4,597 yuan per ton, up 0.81%. The CCFEI price index of domestic PTA was 4,585 yuan per ton, up 1.44%; the external price index was $609.00 per ton, up 1.50% [1] - **PX**: On September 25, 2025, the closing price of CZCE PX's main contract was 6,674 yuan per ton, up 1.09%; the settlement price was 6,640 yuan per ton, up 1.10%. The closing price of the near - month contract was 6,678 yuan per ton, up 0.69%; the settlement price was 6,470 yuan per ton, down 2.03%. The domestic PX spot price remained unchanged at 6,382 yuan per ton. The spot price (CFR China Taiwan) was $813.00 per ton, up 1.12%; the spot price (FOB South Korea) was $796.00 per ton, up 1.02%. The PXN spread was $208.50 per ton, up 1.05%; the PX - MX spread was $141.00 per ton, up 0.84% [1] - **PR**: On September 25, 2025, the closing price of CZCE PR's main contract was 5,840 yuan per ton, up 0.97%; the settlement price was 5,816 yuan per ton, up 1.04%. The closing price of the near - month contract was 5,874 yuan per ton, up 1.31%; the settlement price was 5,856 yuan per ton, up 1.00%. The mainstream market price of polyester bottle chips in the East China market was 5,790 yuan per ton, up 0.70%; in the South China market, it was 5,870 yuan per ton, up 0.69% [1] - **Downstream**: On September 25, 2025, the CCFEI price index of polyester DTY was 8,475 yuan per ton, down 0.59%; the price index of polyester POY was 6,850 yuan per ton, down 0.72%; the price index of polyester FDY68D was 6,950 yuan per ton, down 1.42%; the price index of polyester FDY150D was 6,850 yuan per ton, down 1.44%; the price index of polyester staple fiber was 6,425 yuan per ton, up 0.23%; the price index of polyester chips was 5,755 yuan per ton, up 0.52%; the price index of bottle - grade chips was 5,790 yuan per ton, up 0.70% [2] Device Information - A 7 - million - ton PX plant in the Northeast has been under maintenance since September 18, with an expected maintenance period of about 45 days [2] Market Analysis - **PX**: Geopolitical and sanctions around Russia are the main factors driving international crude oil prices. The expected pressure of supply glut has not been reflected in the market, and oil prices were stagnant during the Asian session. The CFR China price of PX on September 25 was $817 per ton, and international oil prices continued to rise due to the decline in US crude oil inventories. The domestic PX operating load was stable, and the demand side was waiting for the implementation of the expected changes in PTA plants. The cost support led to a slight price recovery. The PX2511 contract closed at 6,674 yuan per ton (up 1.61%), with a trading volume of 185,500 lots. The increase in PX supply due to the increase in short - process production at home and abroad and the postponement of some plant maintenance was obvious, while the demand for PX decreased more than expected due to the delay of new PTA plant commissioning and multiple PTA plant maintenance. The supply - demand situation did not change significantly, and the PX profit would remain low in the short term [2] - **PTA**: The cost support slightly recovered, and the TA2601 contract closed at 4,678 yuan per ton (up 1.74%), with a trading volume of 701,000 lots. The sales of polyester filament on Wednesday evening were around 149% and 175% on Thursday, which was positive for the PTA market. The cost support was strengthened, and there was a strong expectation of PTA plant maintenance due to low processing fees. The leading polyester factories adjusted the production rhythm to stabilize market supply, but the production enterprises faced great pressure to sell at the end of the month. The new orders of weaving enterprises improved, and the shipment speed of grey cloth continued to improve, but the overall inventory pressure in the grey cloth market still existed, leading to the lack of confidence of downstream enterprises in the future market. As the National Day holiday approached, the sentiment in the downstream market was clearly divided, and some enterprises expected the market to improve after the holiday [2] - **PR**: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang market was 5,800 - 5,900 yuan per ton, up 55 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The prices of PTA and bottle - chip futures rose, and the supply - side quotation of bottle chips mainly increased, but the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream terminals was not high, and the trading atmosphere was light. The PR2511 contract closed at 5,840 yuan per ton (up 1.46%), with a trading volume of 28,600 lots. The operating rate of the bottle - chip industry was expected to gradually recover, and the market supply of goods was relatively abundant. The purchasing intention of downstream terminals was not high, and the market trading atmosphere was light [2] Production and Sales and Operating Conditions - **Operating Conditions**: On September 25, 2025, the operating rate of the PX in the polyester industry chain was 85.57%, unchanged from the previous value; the load rate of PTA plants in the PTA industry chain was 78.12%, unchanged; the load rate of polyester plants was 87.81%, up 0.08 percentage points; the load rate of bottle - chip plants was 69.37%, up 0.27 percentage points; the load rate of Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms was 69.19%, up 1.64 percentage points [1] - **Production and Sales**: On September 25, 2025, the sales rate of polyester filament was 175.16%, up 94.51 percentage points from the previous value; the sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 88.58%, up 21.54 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester chips was 152.51%, up 9.03 percentage points [1]

Report Summary Core Viewpoints - PTA: Domestic PTA installations are gradually resuming, leading to an increase in domestic PTA production. The PTA basis has declined rapidly, and the market is under significant pressure due to Hengli's concentrated sales. OPEC+ has increased oil production again, causing a sharp drop in crude oil prices. The spread between PX and naphtha has narrowed. With recent weakening sales and rising inventories, especially as the off - season approaches, the polyester operating load has risen to 91%. However, due to the decline in crude oil prices and the weakening basis, PTA has shown weak performance [2]. - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): The inventory of ethylene glycol at East China ports is 46.5 million tons. The weekly port arrivals are still limited, and the shipping volume from the main warehouse in Zhangjiagang continues to increase, resulting in a continuous decline in the overall ethylene glycol inventory. The ethylene glycol port is expected to continue destocking. Although the import of ethylene glycol in the overseas market is expected to decline, the commissioning of domestic installations has continuously pressured the ethylene glycol price. Coal - based ethylene glycol installations are also resuming. The overall polyester inventory is in good condition, and the downstream weaving load has increased [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil price increased from 473.1 yuan/barrel on September 23, 2025, to 482.3 yuan/barrel on September 24, 2025, with a change of 9.20 yuan/barrel [2]. - **PTA**: PTA主力期价 rose from 4556 yuan/ton to 4626 yuan/ton, the spot price increased from 4470 yuan/ton to 4525 yuan/ton, the spot processing fee rose from 172.3 yuan/ton to 202.8 yuan/ton, the basis improved from - 79 to - 73, and the number of PTA warehouse receipts increased by 600 to 32714 [2]. - **MEG**: MEG主力期价 increased from 4212 yuan/ton to 4234 yuan/ton, the MEG - naphtha spread changed from - 126.98 yuan/ton to - 126.17 yuan/ton, the MEG domestic price rose from 4297 yuan/ton to 4301 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased from 76 to 68 [2]. - **Polyester Products**: POY150D/48F price decreased by 20 yuan/ton, FDY150D/96F decreased by 45 yuan/ton, DTY150D/48F decreased by 5 yuan/ton, 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price increased from 6460 yuan/ton to 6539 yuan/ton, and the semi - bright polyester chip price increased from 5650 yuan/ton to 5690 yuan/ton [2]. Industry Operating Rates - PX operating rate remained at 85.57%, PTA operating rate was stable at 79.38%, MEG operating rate stayed at 62.62%, and polyester load remained at 89.00% [2]. Sales and Production Ratios - The sales - to - production ratio of polyester filament increased from 38% to 80%, and the sales - to - production ratio of polyester staple fiber increased from 48% to 67%, and the sales - to - production ratio of polyester chips increased from 58% to 143% [2]. Device Maintenance - Two PTA installations in South China with a total capacity of 500 million tons have reduced their loads recently due to weather conditions, and the recovery time is to be tracked [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Reports Crude Oil - Overnight oil prices rose due to increased market concerns about supply tightening, especially the return of geopolitical risk premiums. The attacks on Russian refining and export facilities by Ukraine led to concerns about supply disruptions, verified by the strengthening of diesel crack spreads and traders' bets on price increases. Additionally, the unexpected decline in US crude inventories and lower gasoline and distillate inventories supported the demand side. The short - term support for oil prices has increased, but marginal supply increments will limit the rebound amplitude. It is recommended to conduct unilateral band operations, with WTI in the range of [60, 66], Brent in [64, 69], and SC in [471, 502]. For options, wait for opportunities to expand after volatility increases [2]. Polyester Industry Chain - **PX**: Supply is expected to be abundant due to negative short - term operations and postponed maintenance of some domestic PX plants. Demand is weak as PTA processing fees are low, new PTA plants' commissioning is delayed, and multiple PTA plants have maintenance plans. PXN is expected to compress, but short - term prices may be supported by geopolitical events and pre - holiday demand. Strategies include short - term long on PX11 or shorting after a rebound [7]. - **PTA**: Supply is expected to shrink as new plant commissioning is delayed and maintenance plans are in place. Pre - holiday restocking demand supports the short - term basis, but the rebound space is limited under weak expectations. Absolute prices may be supported by geopolitical factors. Strategies include short - term long on TA or shorting after a rebound, and rolling reverse arbitrage on TA1 - 5 [7]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Short - term imports are expected to be low, and inventory is expected to decline. However, the terminal market is weak, and the basis fluctuates at a high level. In the long - term, supply will increase as new plants start up and demand seasonally declines, leading to inventory accumulation. Strategies include selling call options EG2601 - C - 4400 at high prices and reverse arbitrage on EG1 - 5 [7]. - **Short Fiber**: Supply is at a high level, and demand is in the peak season but with limited new orders. Prices are supported at low levels but lack upward momentum, following raw material fluctuations. Strategies are the same as PTA, and the processing fee on the disk oscillates between 800 - 1100 [7]. - **Bottle Chips**: Supply in September is lower than expected due to typhoons, and low prices and pre - holiday restocking demand support prices and processing fees. However, the supply - demand pattern remains loose. Strategies are the same as PTA, and the main - contract processing fee on the disk is expected to oscillate between 350 - 500 yuan/ton [7]. Urea - Urea futures rebounded on September 24 due to expectations of short - term supply contraction and technical repair. Shanxi Tianze plans to shut down some large - scale plants on October 7, which supports market sentiment. Although spot demand is weak, export orders provide some support [14][16]. Methanol - This week, both port and inland inventories decreased, partly due to typhoons in South China. Supply in the inland area is at a high level, and although unplanned maintenance has increased, some plants are expected to resume production in mid - September. The inventory pattern in the inland area is healthy, supporting prices. Demand is weak due to the traditional off - season. The overall valuation is neutral. The disk fluctuates between trading the reality of high inventory and weak basis and the expectation of overseas gas restrictions in the long - term [19]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Pure Benzene**: Supply is expected to remain high as some plants resume production or start producing, and there are maintenance plans. Demand is weak as most downstream products are in the red, and there are many maintenance plans for downstream plants in September - October. However, continuous de - stocking at ports may provide some support. Prices are driven by geopolitical and macro factors in the short - term. Strategies include BZ2603 following styrene and crude oil fluctuations [23]. - **Styrene**: Downstream demand is fair due to peak - season demand and pre - holiday stocking, but it is mainly for rigid needs. Supply is expected to decrease as overseas plants are under maintenance and exports are expected to increase. Port inventories are accumulating, pressuring prices. Strategies include shorting EB11 on price rebounds and widening the spread of EB11 - BZ11 [23]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Caustic Soda**: The market is weak. Supply is high, and the decline in alumina prices has squeezed the profit margins of domestic alumina enterprises, weakening the support for spot prices. Inventory in North China is rising, while in East China, it is falling due to tight supply and non - aluminum rigid demand. In Shandong, prices may continue to decline before the National Day holiday. Short - selling positions can be held [27]. - **PVC**: The market is also weak, and the supply - demand contradiction is difficult to resolve. Supply is expected to increase as many plants finish maintenance next week. Demand is limited as downstream product start - up rates are low, and buyers are resistant to high prices. Cost support is provided by rising calcium carbide prices and stable ethylene prices. PVC is expected to stop falling and stabilize during the September - October peak season [27]. Polyolefins - **PP**: Production has decreased recently due to heavy losses in PDH and external - propylene procurement routes, leading to increased unplanned maintenance and lower inventory. - **PE**: Maintenance has reached a peak, and the start - up rate is gradually increasing. Inventory in the upstream and mid - stream has decreased this week. More import offers from North America are emerging, and the supply rhythm and import offers need to be monitored. There is pressure on inventory accumulation for the 01 contract [31]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: On September 25, Brent rose 2.48% to $69.31/barrel, WTI fell 0.38% to $64.74/barrel, and SC fell 1.55% to 483.60 yuan/barrel. Some spreads, such as Brent M1 - M3, increased, while others like WTI M1 - M3 decreased [2]. - **EIA Data**: As of the week ending September 19, 2025, US crude production increased to 1350.1万桶/日, refinery utilization rate decreased to 93%, commercial crude inventory decreased by 60.7万桶, and gasoline and distillate inventories also decreased [9]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices**: Brent crude (November) rose to $69.31/barrel, CFR Japan naphtha rose to $606/ton, etc. [7]. - **PX - Related**: CFR China PX rose to $812/ton, PX - naphtha spread decreased to 120 [7]. - **PTA - Related**: PTA East - China spot price rose to 4525 yuan/ton, TA01 - TA05 spread decreased [7]. - **MEG - Related**: MEG port inventory decreased to 700,000 tons, and the arrival forecast decreased [7]. - **Downstream Products**: POY150/48 price decreased to 6600 yuan/ton, and polyester bottle - chip price rose to 5804 yuan/ton [7]. Urea - **Futures**: On September 24, the 01 contract rose 0.90% to 1673 yuan/ton, the 05 contract rose 0.64% to 1724 yuan/ton, and the 09 contract rose 0.63% to 1745 yuan/ton [14]. - **Spot**: Shandong (small - particle) urea price remained at 1610 yuan/ton, and FOB China (small - particle) remained at $418/ton [15]. - **Supply**: Domestic urea daily production increased to 19.56 million tons on September 26, and the production start - up rate increased to 83.59% [16]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: MA2601 closed at 2351 yuan/ton on September 24, up 0.34%. The spread between MA2509 and MA2601 widened. The basis of Taicang decreased [19]. - **Inventory**: As of Wednesday, methanol enterprise inventory decreased to 31.994%, port inventory decreased to 149.2 million tons, and social inventory decreased to 181.2% [19]. - **Start - up Rates**: Upstream domestic enterprise start - up rate decreased slightly, while downstream external - MTO device start - up rate increased [19]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Pure Benzene**: CFR China pure benzene rose to $726/ton, and the spread between pure benzene and naphtha decreased. Port inventory decreased [23]. - **Styrene**: Styrene East - China spot price rose to 6910 yuan/ton, and the basis of EB10 decreased [23]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Prices**: On September 24, Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda's converted - to - 100% price remained at 2500 yuan/ton, and East - China calcium - carbide - based PVC market price remained at 4740 yuan/ton [27]. - **Supply**: Caustic soda industry start - up rate decreased to 85.4%, and PVC total start - up rate decreased to 75.4% [27]. - **Demand**: Alumina industry start - up rate increased to 83.7%, and PVC downstream product start - up rates increased slightly [27]. Polyolefins - **Futures**: On September 24, L2601 closed at 7142 yuan/ton, up 0.52%, and PP2601 closed at 6877 yuan/ton, up 0.51% [31]. - **Spot**: East - China PP拉丝 spot price remained at 6720 yuan/ton, and North - China LDPE film - grade spot price rose to 7070 yuan/ton [31]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory decreased to 45.8 million tons, and PP enterprise inventory decreased to 52.0 million tons [31]. - **Start - up Rates**: PE device start - up rate increased to 80.4%, and PP device start - up rate decreased to 74.9% [31].

Core Viewpoint - The company anticipates a significant increase in net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, projecting a growth of over 50% compared to the same period last year [1][2]. Performance Forecast - The company expects net profit attributable to shareholders to be between 34 million and 42 million yuan, representing an increase of 13.98 million to 21.98 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 69.81% to 109.77% [2]. - The projected net profit, excluding non-recurring gains and losses, is estimated to be between 32.4 million and 40.4 million yuan, an increase of 14.39 million to 22.39 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 79.88% to 124.29% [2]. Previous Year Performance - In the same period last year, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 20.02 million yuan, and the net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses was 18.01 million yuan [3]. Earnings Per Share - The basic earnings per share for the previous year was 0.093 yuan [4]. Reasons for Performance Increase - The company has adjusted its sales strategy, leading to a steady increase in foreign trade market share, with PVA export volume increasing by over 40%, and acetic acid methyl export volume increasing by around 30% [5]. - The company has focused on high-value new materials in the PVA downstream sector, enhancing R&D investment and breaking foreign monopolies in certain products, resulting in strong sales and improved profitability [5]. - A significant decline in raw material prices, such as coal, acetic acid, and PTA, has led to increased gross margins for products like PVA and polyester chips, enhancing profitability [5]. - The company has strengthened cost control and efficiency measures, leading to improved operational efficiency [6]. Non-Recurring Gains and Losses - The company estimates non-recurring gains and losses attributable to shareholders to be around 1.6 million yuan, which is not expected to have a significant impact on overall performance [7].