智通财经APP获悉，周二，医疗保险股盘前集体大跌，哈门那(HUM.US)股价重挫逾16%，联合健康 (UNH.US)大跌15%，西维斯健康(CVS.US)跌近10%。消息面上，美国政府提议明年将联邦医疗保险 (Medicare)私人计划的支付费率维持在当前水平，这一消息令投资者大失所望。 另外，联合健康公布的第四季度盈利略微超出预期，但2026年收入指引疲软。根据LSEG汇编的数据， 联合健康第四季度经调整后每股收益为 2.11 美元，高于分析师平均预期的 2.10 美元。Q4营收为 1132 亿美元，尽管同比增长约 12%，但仍比华尔街预期低5.2亿美元。该公司还预测，2026 年收入将出现下 滑，这将是三十多年来收入首次年度萎缩。 美国医疗保险和医疗补助服务中心(CMS)在公告中表示，预计2027年联邦医保优势计划(Medicare Advantage)的支付费率仅将上调0.09%，远低于分析师此前预期的高达6%的增幅。支付费率对联合健 康、西维斯健康和哈门那等大型保险商至关重要。支付费率提高能帮助保险公司覆盖医疗成本、提升老 年客户福利并增厚利润，而小幅上调则会直接压缩企业利润率。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. public debt has surged to 99% of GDP, breaking post-World War II records, indicating an impending financial disaster. Projections suggest this ratio will rise to 107% by 2029, with debt service costs reaching $11 billion weekly, accounting for 15% of federal spending for the fiscal year [1][15]. Group 1: Debt Crisis Analysis - Harvard economist Jeffrey Frankel warns that the addiction to borrowing in Washington has reached a critical point, driven by reckless spending from both political parties. The total U.S. federal debt has surpassed $38 trillion, with the bond market's patience wearing thin, signaling a potential crisis [3][17]. - Frankel dismisses five alternatives to escape the debt crisis, concluding that only severe fiscal tightening remains as a viable option. Economic growth is deemed unrealistic due to a shrinking workforce, even with potential productivity gains from artificial intelligence [4][18]. Group 2: Political Stalemate - The political deadlock is exacerbated by the Democratic Party's reluctance to reform Social Security and Medicare, while the Republican Party focuses on tax cuts for the wealthy. This impasse ensures that no meaningful reforms will be enacted before a crisis occurs [8][23]. - Oxford Economics predicts that welfare programs will face bankruptcy by 2034, which could trigger a backlash from the bond market if Congress resorts to using general revenue as a stopgap measure [8][23]. Group 3: Global Implications - The fiscal tightening in the U.S. will have global repercussions, increasing borrowing costs worldwide and adversely affecting emerging markets already struggling with debt. Europe may face imported inflation, while Asia's export engines could stall due to retaliatory tariffs [10][25]. - Discussions around financial repression are resurfacing, reminiscent of post-war Japan or 1970s Italy, but such measures could provoke strong reactions in a polarized U.S. environment [10][25]. Group 4: Welfare Programs as a Time Bomb - Social Security and Medicare, which cost trillions, are central to the crisis. The impending welfare cliff in 2034 could force the government to tap into general funds, which the bond market would likely punish as a fiscal compromise [11][26]. - Political sensitivity surrounding reforms like raising the retirement age makes it difficult to implement necessary changes, leading to a continuous expansion of the fiscal deficit and rising debt levels [11][26]. Group 5: Tariffs and Tax Cuts - Trump's "liberation day" tariff policy, intended to promote re-industrialization, has inadvertently worsened the debt situation by increasing import costs and inflation, leading to higher interest expenses. The revenue from tariffs is negligible compared to the vast expenditures [13][28]. - Republican tax cuts are projected to add trillions to the debt, while both parties' hypocrisy ensures that the countdown to a fiscal bomb continues [13][28].