聚酯纤维(PF)
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化工日报:反内卷再度发酵,聚酯产业链反弹-20251028
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-28 07:23
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The anti-involution of the polyester industry chain has fermented again, and the PTA and bottle-grade polyester chip industries will hold a development symposium to prevent and resolve involutionary competition [1]. - The PTA processing fee has been compressed to a low level, but with the end of this round of PTA production and the planned increase in polyester production capacity in 2026, the pattern of oversupply of PTA capacity and low processing fees is expected to gradually reverse [1]. - The recent rebound in crude oil prices is due to increased sanctions on Russia by the US and the EU, as well as other factors, but the contradiction of oversupply of crude oil has begun to materialize, and the macro situation is still unclear [2]. - The short-term rebound of PX floating prices is limited, and the rebound space of PXN is restricted due to fewer maintenance plans in the fourth quarter and capacity expansion of some devices [2]. - The PTA processing fee has been compressed to a low level, with more maintenance plans in the near term and less inventory accumulation pressure, but the pressure will gradually appear after November [2]. - The polyester operating rate is 91.4%, and domestic sales orders have improved significantly this week. The inventory of filaments has decreased significantly, but the current raw material inventory of weaving is not high [3]. - The spot production profit of PF is 202 yuan/ton, the short-fiber factory's sales are smooth, and the inventory continues to decrease [3]. - The spot processing fee of PR is 472 yuan/ton, the load remains stable, and attention should be paid to the later device load and new capacity release progress [3]. - For the futures market, PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated as neutral. It is recommended to go long on the PF processing fee at low prices and there is no recommendation for inter-period trading [4][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Price and Basis - The TA main contract spot basis is -81 yuan/ton (month-on-month change +2 yuan/ton), and the PTA spot processing fee is 91 yuan/ton (month-on-month change +23 yuan/ton) [2]. II. Upstream Profits and Spreads - The PXN is 234 US dollars/ton (month-on-month change -4.00 US dollars/ton), and the PXN rebound space is limited [2]. III. International Spreads and Import-Export Profits - Not provided in the content IV. Upstream PX and PTA Startups - The PX load in China has gradually recovered to a relatively high level, and the PTA near-term maintenance plans are many [2]. V. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The PTA inventory accumulation pressure after November will gradually appear [2]. VI. Downstream Polyester Load - The polyester operating rate is 91.4% (month-on-month +0.0%), and the load of weaving machines and texturing machines has rebounded significantly [3]. VII. PF Detailed Data - The spot production profit of PF is 202 yuan/ton (month-on-month -42 yuan/ton), and the short-fiber processing difference is moderately compressed to the 1100 - 1200 range [3]. VIII. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - The spot processing fee of PR is 472 yuan/ton (month-on-month change +1 yuan/ton), and the load remains stable [3].