化工日报 | 2026-03-03 地缘风险加剧，聚酯产业链大幅上涨 市场要闻与数据 3月2日，聚酯产业链PX/PTA/PF/PR/MEG主力合约高开,分别上涨6.76%、6.44%,5.55%、5.80%、6.00% 上周末美以对伊朗发动大规模军事打击，地缘冲突升级，带动能源化工和贵金属等板块商品价格大幅上涨。上午 原油高开低走，但下午市场对于中东原油供应受影响的担忧加剧，原油再度上涨。 对聚酯产业链的影响而言，一方面原油等能源成本上涨形成支撑;另一方面美伊紧张局势有外溢至中东其他国家的 风险，而中东作为PX和EG产能集中地，若装置停车会对全球供应产生较大影响，中东也是我国EG进口的主要来 源地区。另外，如果霍尔木兹海峡长时间未能正常运行，还有可能会影响全球部分炼厂的原油、凝析油等供应问 题，从而导致其他地区炼厂被动减产或者降负荷，同时海运费的普涨以及保费上调也会对整体物流产生影响。 市场分析 PR方面，瓶片现货加工费621元/吨(环比变动-11元/吨)。春节假期后聚酯瓶片工厂整体库存小幅累积，节后聚酯瓶 片装置陆续重启中，整体供应量小幅回升，供需趋紧格局边际缓解，下游当前陆续恢复中，聚酯瓶片加工费预计 维 ...

| 第一部分 | 基本面情况 | 3 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 一、PX 海内外开工高位，检修季即将来临 | 3 | | | 二、TA 产能周期拐点，格局预期改善 | 5 | | | 三、乙二醇连续累库，3 月负荷预计下调 | 7 | | | 四、聚酯需求温和恢复，金三银四预期仍在 | 9 | | 第二部分 | 后市展望及策略推荐 | 12 | | 免责声明 | | 14 | 聚酯产业链 2 月报 2026 年 2 月 27 日 聚酯研发报告 成本支撑增强，格局预期改善 【行情回顾】 证监许可[2011]1428 号 研究员：温健翔 电 话：17660221204 邮 箱： wenjianxiang_qh@chinastock.com .cn 期货从业资格证号：F03118724 投资咨询资格证号：Z0022792 作者承诺 PX 行业利润带来了海内外的高开工，近两个月PX-MX 价差维持在 160-190 美元/吨，同比去年表现较好，PXN 目前较 1 月高点有所回落，但依然维持在300 美元/吨上方，亚洲 PX 负荷接连升高，2 月截至 26 日，国内 PX 装置负荷在 92.4 ...

PTA&MEG 聚聚聚聚聚聚聚聚聚聚聚 聚聚聚聚 2026/2/24 我公司依法已获取期货交易咨询业务资格 | PTA | 聚聚聚聚聚 | 聚聚 | | --- | --- | --- | | 核心观点 | 中性 | 假期原油反弹偏多,PX/PTA高开上涨。假期PTA供应变化不大，需求聚酯负荷不高，假期累库偏多，节后 关注地缘和油价影响。3月PTA计划检修量不低，供需预期向好，整体低买思路。 | | 月差 | 中性 | 月差企稳，现实端累库中，3月后预期尚可。 | | 现货 | 中性 | PTA现货市场商谈一般，基差偏弱，2月货在05-70附近商谈，价格商谈区间在5250~5300附近。 | | 成本 | 中性 | 假期PX装置负荷高位，近端浮动价一般，PXN320美元附近，成本PX现实一般，预期尚可。 | | 装置变动 | 谨慎偏多 | 假期新材料重启，英力士125万吨按计划检修中，另一条110万吨短停5天。独山2月10日检修中，YS3套装 置检修中。3月PTA计划检修不低，预期供应有改善。 | | 下游需求 | 中性 | 聚酯2月检修高位，负荷不高，2-3月负荷评估79%、90%。织造复工预计初八至正月十 ...

1. Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report [1][2][3] 2. Core Viewpoints - From a policy perspective, OPEC+ maintains the policy framework of suspending production increases in Q1 2026, with March production unchanged, providing policy support for oil prices. The IEA monthly report lowers the global crude oil demand growth forecast for 2026, and there is still pressure on supply surplus in Q1. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East cause the geopolitical premium to rise periodically. There is no new policy for the polyester industry chain, and the policy environment remains neutral [3]. - In terms of market rhythm, crude oil fluctuates strongly this week, with prices falling at the beginning of the week due to weak demand and rebounding in the latter half due to intensified tensions in the Middle East. The polyester chain shows a differentiated and volatile trend due to continued negative feedback from downstream and slow post - holiday resumption of work. PX and PTA are relatively resistant to decline and remain strong, while MEG is weak due to high - inventory pressure [3]. - In terms of supply - demand, PX supply is slightly more relaxed, and demand is marginally weak. PTA supply is affected by maintenance, and demand is sluggish, with inventory accumulation accelerating. MEG supply is marginally more relaxed, demand is shrinking, and high - inventory pressure persists. Short - fiber and bottle - chip show a pattern of weak supply and demand [4]. - In terms of valuation, PX profit remains relatively high, PTA processing fees are under pressure, MEG valuation is weak, short - fiber processing fees rise slightly, and bottle - chip processing fees are weak [4]. - In terms of trends, PX fluctuates with crude oil prices, PTA is mainly in high - level shock consolidation, MEG maintains a weak shock pattern, and short - fiber and bottle - chip fluctuate passively with raw materials. In terms of arbitrage, cautiously arrange positive spreads for PX, TA, and EG from May to September, and continue to go long on PTA and short on MEG [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Fluctuations - NYMEX crude oil futures fell by $3.82 to $60.65 per barrel, a decrease of 5.9%. ICE Brent crude oil futures fell by $1.27 to $67.68 per barrel, a decrease of 1.8%. Domestic crude oil futures fell by 1.7 yuan to 460.7 yuan per barrel, a decrease of 0.4%. Naphtha CFR Japan rose by $13.88 to $612.13 per ton, an increase of 2.3% [6]. - PX CFR China rose by $7.34 to $909.67 per ton, an increase of 0.8%. PTA East China spot price fell by 20 yuan to 5130 yuan per ton, a decrease of 0.4%. Ethylene glycol East China spot price fell by 107 yuan to 3575 yuan per ton, a decrease of 2.9% [6]. - Polyester chip East China spot price rose by 30 yuan to 5930 yuan per ton, an increase of 0.5%. Polyester short - fiber East China spot price fell by 10 yuan to 6570 yuan per ton, a decrease of 0.2%. Polyester bottle - chip East China spot price fell by 50 yuan to 6200 yuan per ton, a decrease of 0.8% [6]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Balance Sheets 3.2.1 PX - This week, Zhejiang Petrochemical's reforming unit restarted, and Sinochem Quanzhou's 800,000 - ton PX unit was restarted on January 25 but has not yet produced qualified products. This week's PX output was 758,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.99%. The domestic average weekly PX capacity utilization rate was 91.65%, a week - on - week increase of 1.78%. The Asian average weekly PX capacity utilization rate was 80.28%, a week - on - week increase of 0.97% [7]. - According to the PX weekly balance sheet, the supply - demand difference this week was - 29,900 tons, and the ending inventory was 3.3905 million tons [8]. 3.2.2 PTA - During the cycle, Dushan Energy shut down for maintenance near the weekend, and the overall domestic PTA output decreased slightly. This week's domestic PTA output was 1.462 million tons, a decrease of 1900 tons from last week and an increase of 43,700 tons from the same period last year. The domestic average weekly PTA capacity utilization rate was 76.13%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.16% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.20% [10]. - According to the PTA weekly balance sheet, the supply - demand difference this week was 169,500 tons, and the ending inventory was 3.415 million tons [11]. 3.2.3 MEG - This week, Sinochem Quanzhou's petrochemical integration unit completed maintenance and increased its load to normal levels. Satellite Petrochemical's 900,000 - ton production line switched to polyethylene production. The loads of Sanjiang Chemical and Sichuan Petrochemical increased, while the loads of three production lines of Zhejiang Petrochemical decreased. Xinjiang Guanghui's coal - based unit was under maintenance, and the load of Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry Yulin Chemical increased. The weekly output was 417,100 tons, an increase of 91,000 tons from last week, a week - on - week increase of 6.65%. The total capacity utilization rate was 64.39%, a week - on - week increase of 2.41% [13]. - According to the MEG weekly balance sheet, the supply - demand difference this week was 105,000 tons, and the ending inventory was 2.0186 million tons [14]. 3.3 Product - Specific Analysis 3.3.1 PX - Lack of driving force, PX prices fluctuate with crude oil. Spot prices fluctuate within a range, and the basis between futures and spot strengthens. Short - and medium - term processing fees increase slightly [23][26][29]. - The PX - naphtha spread and PX - MX spread are presented in the report, showing the change trends of processing fees [30]. 3.3.2 PTA - Boosted by costs, PTA prices strengthen slightly. The basis between futures and spot, spot processing fees, and futures processing fees show different trends [35][38]. - PTA production and capacity utilization rates are affected by maintenance, and inventory shows an upward trend. In December, PTA exports were 361,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.86% [39][43]. 3.3.3 MEG - The fundamentals are still weak, and the price center of gravity of ethylene glycol moves downward again. The basis, oil - based, coal - based, ethylene - based, and methanol - based profits, and capacity utilization rates are presented in the report [48][54][55]. - In December, Saudi Arabia's MEG imports were 548,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 82.52%. Port inventory increased month - on - month [64][66]. 3.3.4 Polyester Short - Fiber - The short - fiber processing fees are slightly repaired due to device shutdown. Spot processing fees increase, capacity utilization rate decreases significantly, production and sales are dull, and inventory increases month - on - month [69][74][81]. 3.3.5 Polyester Bottle - Chip - Supply is reduced, and prices follow raw materials to strengthen. The basis, spot processing fees, and capacity utilization rates are presented in the report. In December, bottle - chip exports were 588,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.44% [86][91][96]. 3.4 Downstream Industry Analysis - Polyester, filament, weaving, and dyeing industries: The weaving start - up rate and textile orders decline continuously. The polyester start - up rate is 79.53%, a week - on - week decrease of 4.45%. Filament production and sales are dull, inventory increases month - on - month, and profits are repaired month - on - month [100][101][103]. - In December, polyester exports were 1.3061 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.96% and a year - on - year increase of 2.59%. The weaving start - up rate is 11.76%, a week - on - week decrease of 47.66%, and textile orders are 5.81 days, a week - on - week decrease of 8.50% [109][112].

Group 1: PTA Market Overview - The core viewpoint indicates a neutral stance on PTA, with pre-holiday maintenance being realized, demand decreasing, and the PTA industry chain slightly contracting, while expectations remain positive [1][4]. - PTA spot market discussions are generally average, with prices trading in the range of 5080 to 5145, and a basis change remaining minimal [2]. - PTA production capacity is stable, with maintenance planned for several facilities, including a scheduled maintenance for the YS3 unit and a restart for the Nengtou facility [3][27]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The PTA supply-demand balance shows a slight seasonal accumulation in January-February, with expectations for increased maintenance in March [4]. - Polyester production load is reported at 78.2%, down 6%, with a gradual decrease in demand as the holiday approaches [3][22]. - The downstream demand for polyester is declining, with operating rates for texturing, weaving, and dyeing dropping significantly [3][12]. Group 3: Pricing and Profitability - PTA processing profits are under pressure, with the PTA-crude oil price spread slightly decreasing, and processing fees around 400 RMB [5][44]. - The PX market remains stable with high supply levels, but demand has not changed significantly, leading to a slight decrease in near-term floating prices [6][41]. - The overall profitability for glycol is reported as average, with high production loads and some pressure on costs [50][58]. Group 4: Inventory and Market Sentiment - PTA social inventory has increased to 2.3257 million tons, reflecting a rise of 140,000 tons, indicating a slight accumulation of stock [23]. - The market sentiment is cautious, with a focus on macroeconomic factors and funding influences as the industry approaches the holiday period [24][31]. - The polyester cash flow has shown slight recovery, with average inventory levels stabilizing around 14.6 days [15][17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX: Last month, PXN retraced due to lack of fundamental drivers and off - season pressure, while the sharp rise in crude oil compressed chemical valuations. Currently, PX load remains high, downstream PTA has many maintenance activities, and it is expected to maintain a stockpiling pattern before the maintenance season. The mid - term outlook is positive, and there are opportunities to go long on dips following crude oil [11]. - PTA: Last month, PTA processing fees fluctuated at a high level. Subsequently, the supply side will maintain high - level maintenance in the short term, and the demand side of polyester and chemical fiber will decline due to the off - season. PTA will enter the Spring Festival stockpiling stage. There is room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival, and mid - term opportunities to go long on dips should be grasped [12]. - MEG: Last month, there was a game between weak fundamentals and geopolitics. After a sharp rebound, it returned to weak - fundamental trading. Currently, the overall load is still high, and the port stockpiling pressure is large. There is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction in the mid - term. The valuation is currently at a relatively low level, and there is a risk of rebound [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation PX - **Market Review**: Prices rose and then fell last month. As of February 5, the closing price of the 03 contract was 7,098 yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 70 yuan; the PX CFR price was 892 dollars, a year - on - year increase of 6 dollars. The basis was - 47 yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7 yuan; the 3 - 5 spread was - 102 yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 60 yuan [11]. - **Supply**: At the end of the month, China's load was 89.5%, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1%; Asia's load was 82.4%, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. In January and February, the maintenance volume was relatively small, and the load was expected to remain stable [11]. - **Demand**: At the end of the month, the PTA load was 77.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.5%. In February, the maintenance volume was expected to be large, and the average load would remain stable [11]. - **Inventory**: At the end of December, the social inventory was 4.65 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 190,000 tons. According to the balance sheet, there will be a small amount of stockpiling from January to February [11]. - **Valuation and Cost**: Last month, PXN decreased by 42 dollars, and as of February 4, it was 304 dollars. The naphtha crack spread increased by 12 dollars, and as of February 4, it was 93 dollars [11]. PTA - **Market Review**: Prices rose and then fell last month. As of February 5, the closing price of the 05 contract was 5,144 yuan, a year - on - year increase of 58 yuan; the East China spot price was 5,100 yuan, a year - on - year increase of 30 yuan. The basis was - 77 yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 28 yuan; the 5 - 9 spread was - 4 yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 64 yuan [12]. - **Supply**: At the end of the month, the PTA load was 77.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.5%. In February, the maintenance volume was expected to be large, and the average load would remain stable [12]. - **Demand**: At the end of the month, the polyester load was 79.3%, a year - on - year decrease of 11.5%. The terminal situation weakened, and it is expected to gradually recover around the Lantern Festival [12]. - **Inventory**: As of January 30, the total social inventory of PTA (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 2.116 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 61,000 tons. It is expected to maintain a stockpiling pattern [12]. - **Profit**: The spot processing fee increased by 180 yuan year - on - year, and as of December 30, it was 345 yuan/ton; the disk processing fee increased by 127 yuan, and as of December 30, it was 345 yuan/ton [12]. MEG - **Market Review**: Prices rebounded and then fell last month. As of February 5, the closing price of the 05 contract was 3,745 yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 101 yuan; the East China spot price was 3,649 yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 68 yuan. The basis was - 111 yuan, a year - on - year increase of 15 yuan; the 5 - 9 spread was - 112 yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 21 yuan [13]. - **Supply**: At the end of the month, the EG load was 76.2%, a month - on - month increase of 2.5%. The import volume in February is expected to decrease slightly [13]. - **Demand**: At the end of the month, the polyester load was 79.3%, a year - on - year decrease of 11.5%. The terminal situation weakened, and it is expected to gradually recover around the Lantern Festival [13]. - **Inventory**: As of February 2, the port inventory was 897,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 172,000 tons. Ports are expected to continue stockpiling [13]. - **Valuation and Cost**: Naphtha - based profit decreased by 419 yuan to - 1,175 yuan/ton, domestic ethylene - based profit increased by 190 to - 704 yuan/ton, and coal - based profit decreased by 87 yuan to 101 yuan/ton [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **PX**: The basis fluctuated weakly, and the spread was weak. The position was at a high level, and trading volume was strong [32][35]. - **PTA**: The position and trading volume increased [44]. - **MEG**: The basis was weak, and the spread fluctuated weakly. The position decreased [54][62]. 3.3 PX Fundamentals - **New Capacity**: Domestic new capacity includes Fuguidaohua (technical renovation) with 300,000 tons in early 2026, Huajin Aramco with 2 million tons in Q3 2026, and Yantai Yulongdao with 3 million tons from the end of 2026 to 2027. Overseas, IOC in India will add 800,000 tons in H2 2026 [75]. - **Supply**: The January start - up rate was at a historical high [79]. - **Import**: Imports increased significantly in December [83]. - **Inventory**: Inventory continued to accumulate in December [86]. - **Cost and Profit**: PXN retraced, short - process profits decreased, and the naphtha crack spread fluctuated [89]. - **Aromatic Hydrocarbon Blending for Oil**: Gasoline performance was weak, the octane value showed certain trends, the US - South Korea aromatic hydrocarbon spread was weak, and the relative value of blending for oil decreased [96][99][103][106]. 3.4 PTA Fundamentals - **New Capacity**: In 2025, there were new capacities such as Honggang Petrochemical (Phase III), Hailun Petrochemical 3, and Dushan Energy 4. In 2026, India Oil and GAIL will add new capacities [122]. - **Supply**: It has entered the stockpiling cycle [129]. - **Export**: There are data on exports to India, Turkey, and Vietnam [127]. - **Inventory**: It has entered the stockpiling cycle [129]. - **Profit**: There are data on spot and disk processing fees and acetic acid costs [132]. 3.5 MEG Fundamentals - **New Capacity**: In 2025, there were new capacities such as Zhengdakai Phase I, Yulong Petrochemical 1, and Yichang (Kunpeng Phase I). In 2026, BASF, Tianying, Huajin Aramco, and Zhongsha Gulei will add new capacities [135]. - **Supply**: The overall load remained at a high level [138]. - **Import**: Imports increased significantly in December [140]. - **Inventory**: Due to high imports and the downstream off - season, ports continued to stockpile [150]. - **Cost**: Coal prices fluctuated, ethylene prices were continuously weak, and ethane prices rose [157]. - **Profit**: The valuation was at a relatively low level [160]. 3.6 Polyester and Terminal - **Polyester** - **New Capacity**: There are new bottle - chip production facilities, and new capacities are planned for polyester filament, staple fiber, and chips in 2026 [175][176]. - **Supply**: The start - up rate has entered the off - season [178]. - **Export**: December export data increased year - on - year and month - on - month [184]. - **Inventory**: The inventory pressure of filament was relatively small [187]. - **Sales - to - Production Ratio**: There are data on the sales - to - production ratios of filament, staple fiber, and chips [194]. - **Profit**: The profit of filament improved significantly, and the profit of bottle - chips recovered [197][200]. - **Terminal** - **Start - up**: It has entered the off - season [203]. - **Order and Inventory**: Orders declined, inventory decreased, and raw material stockpiling was weak [209]. - **Retail and Export**: The growth rate of domestic demand for textile and clothing decreased, and exports were weak. The US clothing wholesale inventory was below the pre - pandemic high [213][216].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for unilateral trading is neutral, indicating that the short - term market for PX/PTA/PF/PR is highly volatile due to external funds [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The polyester production cuts are gradually being implemented, and the downstream terminals are gradually on holiday. The cost side fluctuates around the Iran situation. The PX fundamentals have no obvious changes in the short - term, but the medium - term outlook is good. The PTA near - term supply and demand tend to accumulate, but the long - term processing fee is expected to improve. The polyester load is accelerating its decline, and the demand before the Spring Festival is weak. The polyester bottle - chip processing fee rebounds [1][2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Price and Basis - The report presents figures on TA and PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spreads, including TA main contract & basis & inter - period spread trends, PX main contract trend & basis & inter - period spread, PTA East China spot basis, and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [7][8][13]. Upstream Profit and Spread - Figures show PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit, reflecting the profit and spread situation of upstream products [15][19]. International Spread and Import - Export Profit - It includes figures such as the toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit, which are related to international spreads and import - export profitability [21][23]. Upstream PX and PTA Operation - Figures display the operating rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the PX operating rates in China and Asia, reflecting the upstream production status [24][27][29]. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The report shows the weekly social inventory of PTA, monthly social inventory of PX, and various warehouse receipt inventories of PTA, PX, and PF, reflecting the inventory situation [35][37][38]. Downstream Polyester Load - Figures present the production and sales of filaments and short - fibers, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, and the operating rates of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms, texturing machines, and printing and dyeing machines, as well as the inventory days of filament factories, reflecting the downstream production and inventory status [43][45][57]. PF Detailed Data - It includes figures on 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, pure polyester yarn operating rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, and the price difference between raw and recycled materials, providing detailed information on PF [65][66][69]. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures show the polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, and the price difference between East China water bottle chips and recycled 3A - grade white bottle chips, as well as the inter - month spreads of bottle chips, presenting detailed PR fundamentals [81][83][89].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX market strength leads the rise of chemical products, with significant capital inflow into the chemical sector. Driven by the "cycle reversal" narrative, the market significantly increases the allocation of chemical products, and polyester leads the entire chemical sector [3]. - Domestic PTA production continues to grow. With no new PTA capacity in the country, existing plants need to maintain high loads to match the growth of polyester. India's PTA operates at full capacity, and the new project GMPL has purchased PX for commissioning, further boosting regional demand [3]. - Overseas ethylene glycol prices rebound after a long - term slump. Reduced ethylene glycol exports from the Middle East boost market confidence. Supply contraction creates room for ethylene glycol price increases [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil price dropped from 472.5 yuan/barrel on January 29, 2026, to 470.8 yuan/barrel on January 30, 2026, a decrease of 1.7 yuan/barrel [3]. - **PTA**: PTA主力期价 decreased from 5332 yuan/ton to 5270 yuan/ton, a drop of 62 yuan/ton; PTA现货价格 rose from 5245 yuan/ton to 5280 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 yuan/ton. The spot processing fee increased by 63.5 yuan/ton to 477.3 yuan/ton, while the disk processing fee decreased by 13.5 yuan/ton to 467.3 yuan/ton [3]. - **MEG**: MEG主力期价 decreased from 3957 yuan/ton to 3913 yuan/ton, a drop of 44 yuan/ton. MEG内盘 rose from 3829 yuan/ton to 3835 yuan/ton, an increase of 6 yuan/ton [3]. - **PX**: CFR中国PX decreased from 921 to 913, a decrease of 8; PX - naphtha spread decreased from 337 to 317, a decrease of 20 [3]. - **Polyester Products**: POY150D/48F price rose by 90 yuan/ton; FDY150D/96F and DTY150D/48F prices both rose by 100 yuan/ton. 1.4D直纺涤短 price decreased by 15 yuan/ton, and semi - light slice price decreased by 10 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2 Industry Chain Start - up Situation - PX开工率 remained unchanged at 85.82%; PTA开工率 remained unchanged at 75.63%; MEG开工率 decreased from 60.66% to 60.29%, a decrease of 0.37%; polyester load decreased from 81.05% to 80.82%, a decrease of 0.23% [3]. 3.3 Device Maintenance - An East China 3.6 - million - ton PTA plant is currently reducing its load and is expected to shut down for maintenance as planned on the 15th. A South China 1.25 - million - ton PIA plant is expected to shut down on the 16th and is initially expected to restart in early March [4]. 3.4 Market Transaction Suggestions - PTA: The strong PX market drives the rise of chemical products, and capital flows into the chemical sector. Domestic PTA production grows, and existing plants need to maintain high loads. The new Indian project boosts demand, while PX supply is affected by plant maintenance [3]. - MEG: Overseas ethylene glycol prices rebound. Reduced Middle East exports and a domestic plant's production switch plan increase speculative demand and create price - rising space [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The PX market is currently experiencing a callback in PXN due to a lack of fundamental driving forces and the suppression of the off - season. Although the current load is high and downstream PTA is in the maintenance season with high inventory, the supply - demand structure of PX and PTA is strong after the Spring Festival, and there are opportunities to go long following the trend of crude oil in the medium term [11]. - The PTA market shows that the processing fee has remained at a high level, but the market is still weak due to the compression of PXN. In the short term, high maintenance on the supply side and the decline in polyester load on the demand side lead to inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival. There is a risk of a processing fee callback in the short term, but there is room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival [12]. - The MEG market has a high overall load, and the inventory accumulation cycle at ports will continue. There is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction under the pressure of inventory accumulation and high operation. The current valuation is relatively high year - on - year, and it may need to be compressed in the medium term without further domestic production cuts [13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation PX - **Price Performance**: The 03 contract fell 226 yuan last week to 7282 yuan, while the CFR China spot price rose 14 dollars to 921 dollars, and the spot conversion basis rose 119 yuan to 50 yuan as of January 30. The 3 - 5 spread remained flat at - 118 yuan [11]. - **Supply**: The domestic load was 89.2%, a 0.3% increase, and the Asian load was 81.6%, a 0.6% increase. There are still few domestic maintenance plans, and overseas device loads are expected to rise further. In January, South Korea's PX exports to China decreased by 6.8 tons year - on - year [11]. - **Demand**: The PTA load was 76.6%, remaining unchanged. The expected maintenance volume in February is similar to that in January, and the overall load is still low [11]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory at the end of November was 446 tons, a 6 - ton increase. It is expected to continue to accumulate in January and February due to high PTA maintenance and high PX operation [11]. - **Valuation and Cost**: As of January 29, PXN was 325 dollars, a 15 - dollar decrease year - on - year; the naphtha crack spread decreased by 15 dollars to 85 dollars. The relative value of aromatics blending into gasoline is weak [11]. - **Summary**: The PX market is affected by the off - season, and the cost of crude oil has compressed the chemical valuation. It is expected to accumulate inventory before the maintenance season, but the supply - demand structure is strong after the Spring Festival, and there are opportunities to follow the trend of crude oil for long - position operations in the medium term [11]. PTA - **Price Performance**: The 05 contract fell 178 yuan last week to 5270 yuan, the East China spot price rose 90 yuan to 5245 yuan, the spot basis rose 2 yuan to - 76 yuan as of January 30, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 52 yuan to - 12 yuan [12]. - **Supply**: The PTA load was 76.6%, remaining unchanged, and the expected maintenance volume in February is similar to that in January, with a low overall load [12]. - **Demand**: The polyester load was 84.2%, a 2.2% decrease. Polyester fiber is affected by the off - season, and the bottle - chip load has decreased earlier than expected. Terminal orders have decreased, and inventory has increased [12]. - **Inventory**: As of January 23, the overall PTA social inventory was 208.3 tons, a 3.8 - ton increase, and it has entered the inventory accumulation stage [12]. - **Profit**: The spot processing fee rose 33 yuan to 386 yuan/ton, and the disk processing fee rose 41 yuan to 491 yuan/ton [12]. - **Summary**: The PTA processing fee is at a high level, but the market is weak. In the short term, there is a risk of a processing fee callback, but there is room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival [12]. MEG - **Price Performance**: The 05 contract fell 84 yuan last week to 3913 yuan, the East China spot price rose 169 yuan to 3829 yuan, the basis rose 6 yuan to - 112 yuan as of January 30, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 22 yuan to - 105 yuan [13]. - **Supply**: The EG load was 74.4%, a 1.4% increase. Overseas load is low, but domestic production cuts are insufficient. The expected arrival volume last week was 14.7 tons, a 5.8 - ton decrease [13]. - **Demand**: The polyester load was 84.2%, a 2.2% decrease. Polyester fiber is affected by the off - season, and the bottle - chip load has decreased earlier than expected. Terminal orders have decreased, and inventory has increased [13]. - **Inventory**: As of January 26, the port inventory was 85.8 tons, a 6.3 - ton increase, and the downstream factory inventory days increased by 0.2 days to 14.8 days. It is expected to continue to accumulate inventory in January and February [13]. - **Valuation and Cost**: The naphtha - based profit remained at - 1024 yuan/ton, the domestic ethylene - based profit rose 229 yuan to - 543 yuan/ton, and the coal - based profit rose 357 yuan to 352 yuan/ton. The current overall valuation is moderately low [13]. - **Summary**: The MEG market has a high load and continuous inventory accumulation. There is an expectation of profit compression and load reduction, and the valuation may need to be compressed in the medium term [13]. 3.2. Spot and Futures Market PX - **Basis and Spread**: The basis strengthened, and the monthly spread declined [31]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Relevant charts show the trends of active contract trading volume, open interest, total trading volume, and total open interest [35][37]. PTA - **Basis and Spread**: The basis weakened, and the monthly spread decreased [39]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Relevant charts show the trends of active contract trading volume, open interest, total trading volume, and total open interest [45][48]. MEG - **Basis and Spread**: The basis and monthly spread trends are presented in relevant charts [53]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Relevant charts show the trends of active contract trading volume, open interest, total trading volume, and total open interest [60][61]. Overseas Commodity Prices - Charts show the overseas price trends of PX, MEG, and PTA [64]. 3.3. p - Xylene (PX) Fundamentals - **New Capacity**: Domestic new capacities include the 30 - ton technical transformation of Fujia Dahua in early 2026, the 200 - ton project of Huajin Aramco in Q3 2026, and the 300 - ton project of Yantai Yulongdao from late 2026 to 2027. Overseas, IOC in India will add 80 tons in H2 2026 [67]. - **Supply**: The load remained stable, with the domestic load at 89.2% and the Asian load at 81.6% [11]. - **Import**: The import volume increased significantly in December [73]. - **Inventory**: There was a slight inventory accumulation in November [76]. - **Cost and Profit**: PXN declined, the short - process price difference was high, and the naphtha crack spread fluctuated [79]. - **Aromatics Blending into Gasoline**: Gasoline performance was weak, and the relative value of blending was low [86]. 3.4. PTA Fundamentals - **New Capacity**: In 2025, Honggang Petrochemical (Phase III), Hailun Petrochemical 3, and Dushan Energy 4 added new capacities. In 2026, India Oil and GAIL will also add capacities [119]. - **Supply**: The load was 76.6%, remaining unchanged, and the expected maintenance volume in February is similar to that in January [12]. - **Export**: Relevant charts show the trends of PTA exports to different regions [124]. - **Inventory**: Inventory has started to accumulate [126]. - **Profit and Valuation**: The processing fee has increased significantly [129]. 3.5. Ethylene Glycol (MEG) Fundamentals - **New Capacity**: In 2025, Zhengdaikai Phase I, Yulong Petrochemical 1, and Yichang (Kunpeng Phase I) added new capacities. In 2026, BASF, Tianying, Huajin Aramco, and Zhongsha Gulei will also add capacities [133]. - **Supply**: The load was 74.4%, a 1.4% increase, with insufficient domestic production cuts [13]. - **Import**: The import volume increased significantly in December [137]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory increased slightly this week (with a change in the statistical caliber) [147]. - **Cost**: Coal prices declined, and ethylene prices fell [157]. - **Profit**: The profit is moderately low [160]. 3.6. Polyester and End - Users Polyester - **New Capacity**: There will be many new capacity projects in the first half of 2026, mainly in polyester filament, staple fiber, bottle - chip, and slice [177]. - **Supply**: The operating rate decreased seasonally [179]. - **Export**: The export data in December increased both year - on - year and month - on - month [185]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of polyester filament is at a low level [188]. - **Sales Rate**: Relevant charts show the sales rate trends of filament, staple fiber, and slice [195]. - **Profit**: The profit of polyester filament has improved [198]. End - Users - **Operating Rate**: The operating rate decreased, with a relatively slow year - on - year decline [201]. - **Order and Inventory**: Orders decreased, inventory increased, and raw material inventory increased [205]. - **Textile and Apparel and Soft Drinks**: The domestic demand growth rate of textile and apparel has recovered, but exports are weak [210]. - **US Apparel Inventory**: The wholesale inventory is lower than the pre - pandemic high [212].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - PTA: The strong PX market leads the rise of chemical products, and a large amount of funds flow into the chemical sector. Driven by the "cycle reversal" narrative, the market significantly increases the allocation of chemical products, with polyester leading the entire chemical sector. Domestic PTA production continues to grow, and existing domestic PTA plants need to maintain high loads to match the growth of polyester. Indian PTA is operating at full capacity, and a new project has purchased PX for commissioning, further boosting regional demand. Some domestic PX plants are under maintenance, and the PX - naphtha spread continues to expand, prompting refineries to focus on aromatics extraction. Domestic PTA maintains high - level operation, and the reduction of polyester factories has a limited negative impact on PTA [2] - Ethylene glycol: After a long - term slump, the price of overseas ethylene glycol has rebounded. The reduction of ethylene glycol exports in the Middle East boosts market confidence. A 1.8 - million - ton ethylene glycol plant in Jiangsu plans to switch to polyethylene production on one of its 900,000 - ton EG production lines in mid - February due to profit considerations. The supply contraction creates room for price increases [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **INE Crude Oil**: The price on January 28, 2026, was 460.3 yuan/barrel, and on January 29, 2026, it was 472.5 yuan/barrel, with an increase of 12.20 yuan/barrel [2] - **PTA - SC**: The value on January 28, 2026, was 2025.0 yuan/ton, and on January 29, 2026, it was 1898.3 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 126.66 yuan/ton [2] - **PTA/SC Ratio**: It was 1.6054 on January 28, 2026, and 1.5528 on January 29, 2026, with a decrease of 0.0525 [2] - **CFR China PX**: The price was 924 on January 28, 2026, and 921 on January 29, 2026, with a decrease of 3 [2] - **PX - Naphtha Spread**: It was 356 on January 28, 2026, and 337 on January 29, 2026, with a decrease of 19 [2] - **PTA Main Contract Futures Price**: It was 5370 yuan/ton on January 28, 2026, and 5332 yuan/ton on January 29, 2026, with a decrease of 38.0 yuan/ton [2] - **PTA Spot Price**: It was 5235 yuan/ton on January 28, 2026, and 5245 yuan/ton on January 29, 2026, with an increase of 10.0 yuan/ton [2] - **Spot Processing Fee**: It was 369.1 yuan/ton on January 28, 2026, and 413.7 yuan/ton on January 29, 2026, with an increase of 44.7 yuan/ton [2] - **Disk Processing Fee**: It was 504.1 yuan/ton on January 28, 2026, and 480.7 yuan/ton on January 29, 2026, with a decrease of 23.3 yuan/ton [2] - **MEG Main Contract Futures Price**: It was 3970 yuan/ton on January 28, 2026, and 3957 yuan/ton on January 29, 2026, with a decrease of 13.0 yuan/ton [2] - **MEG - Naphtha**: It was (159.45) yuan/ton on January 28, 2026, and (158.64) yuan/ton on January 29, 2026, with an increase of 0.8 [2] - **MEG Inner - Market Price**: It was 3832 on January 28, 2026, and 3829 on January 29, 2026, with a decrease of 6.0 [2] 3.2 Industry Chain Operating Conditions - **PX Operating Rate**: It remained at 85.82% from January 28 to 29, 2026, with no change [2] - **PTA Operating Rate**: It remained at 75.63% from January 28 to 29, 2026, with no change [2] - **MEG Operating Rate**: It increased from 60.17% on January 28, 2026, to 60.66% on January 29, 2026, with an increase of 0.49% [2] - **Polyester Load**: It decreased from 81.96% on January 28, 2026, to 81.05% on January 29, 2026, with a decrease of 0.91% [2] 3.3 Product Prices and Cash Flows - **POY150D/48F**: The price was 7055 on January 28, 2026, and 7030 on January 29, 2026, with a decrease of 25.0 [2] - **POY Cash Flow**: It decreased from 44 on January 28, 2026, to 13 on January 29, 2026, with a decrease of 31.0 [2] - **FDY150D/96F**: The price remained at 7220 from January 28 to 29, 2026, with no change [2] - **FDY Cash Flow**: It decreased from (291) on January 28, 2026, to (297) on January 29, 2026, with a decrease of 6.0 [2] - **DTY150D/48F**: The price remained at 8110 from January 28 to 29, 2026, with no change [2] - **DTY Cash Flow**: It decreased from (101) on January 28, 2026, to (107) on January 29, 2026, with a decrease of 6.0 [2] - **1.4D Direct - Spun Polyester Staple Fiber**: The price was 6705 on January 28, 2026, and 6700 on January 29, 2026, with a decrease of 5 [2] - **Polyester Staple Fiber Cash Flow**: It decreased from 44 on January 28, 2026, to 33 on January 29, 2026, with a decrease of 11.0 [2] - **Semi - Bright Chip**: The price was 6010 on January 28, 2026, and 6000 on January 29, 2026, with a decrease of 10.0 [2] - **Chip Cash Flow**: It decreased from (101) on January 28, 2026, to (117) on January 29, 2026, with a decrease of 16.0 [2] 3.4 Product Sales Ratios - **Long - Fiber Sales Ratio**: It remained at 30% from January 28 to 29, 2026, with no change [2] - **Short - Fiber Sales Ratio**: It remained at 59% from January 28 to 29, 2026, with no change [2] - **Chip Sales Ratio**: It decreased from 70% on January 28, 2026, to 62% on January 29, 2026, with a decrease of 8% [2] 3.5 Device Maintenance - An East China 3.6 - million - ton PTA plant is currently reducing its load and is expected to shut down for maintenance as planned on the 15th [2] - A South China 1.25 - million - ton PIA plant is expected to shut down on the 16th and is initially expected to restart in late March [2]