调油数据走弱， 芳烃估值或将止步 聚酯周报 2025/11/22 马桂炎（联系人） 13923915659 magy@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0020397 从业资格号：F03136381 刘洁文（能源化工组） 从业资格号：F03097315 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 PTA基本面 02 期现市场 05 MEG基本面 03 对二甲苯基本面 06 聚酯及终端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度总结——PX ◆ 价格表现：上周走势震荡，01合约单周下跌56元，报6750元。现货端CFR中国上涨7美元，报833美元。现货折算基差下跌5元，截至11月21日 为-19元。1-3价差上涨8元，截至11月21日为-14元。 ◆ 供应端：上周中国负荷89.5%，环比上升2.7%；亚洲负荷79.7%，环比上升1.2%。装置方面，上海石化、中化泉州重启。进口方面，11月中上 旬韩国PX出口中国27.5万吨，同比上升1.9万吨。整体上，虽然近期存在部分装置意外，但对供给的减量贡献较小，后续国内检修量仍然偏 少，负荷持续偏高。 ◆ 需求端：PTA负荷71%，环比下降4.7%，装置方面，逸盛宁波、虹港检 ...

聚酯数据周报 国泰君安期货研究所·贺晓勤（高级分析师），钱嘉寅（联系人） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 期货从业资格号：F03124480 日期：2025年11月16日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 本周PX观点总结：偏强震荡市 | 供应 | 调油需求支撑成本走强，单边趋势偏强，多PX空纯苯/MEG/PTA。月差正套。供应方面，中国福佳大化年底另一条70万吨装置扩能至100万吨， 泰国PTT 77万吨及沙特SATORP 70万吨PX装置10月底停车检修，预计持续40-55天，其余装置稳定。 | | --- | --- | | 需求 | PTA能投100万吨按计划停车，中泰120万吨提负至9成，PTA负荷调整至75.7%（-0.7%），下周虹港石化250万吨检修，宁波逸盛220万吨计 划下旬检修。后续负荷维持低位，累库压力或有所缓解，12月份多套装置重启，春节期间聚酯开工边际下降，PTA继续进入累库格局。 | | 观点 | 当前调油仍然是主要PX市场的矛盾。汽油裂解价差逆市上涨带动芳烃MX 甲苯需求 ，韩国 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - PX and PTA market is expected to maintain a tight - balance with PTA prices oscillating upwards, while MEG, short - fiber, and bottle - chip markets are expected to experience short - term oscillations [7]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **PX**: This week, PX supply increased while demand decreased. The spot floating price showed a near - strong and far - weak pattern, and the paper - goods maintained a back structure. The naphtha cracking spread strengthened, and the profitability of long - and short - process PX devices was good. The PX operating rate recovered and remained at a high level in Asia. The trading strategy is a long - position for unilateral trading, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and selling both call and put options [7][22][26]. - **PTA**: This week, PTA's supply and demand both declined, and the social inventory continued to rise. The spot processing fee remained low. The trading strategy is a long - position for unilateral trading, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and selling both call and put options [7][30]. - **MEG**: Recently, the willingness of holders to sell increased, and the basis fluctuated within a narrow range. The supply and demand both decreased, and there was still an expectation of inventory accumulation in the future. The trading strategy is short - term oscillation for unilateral trading, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and selling out - of - the - money call options [7][43]. - **Short - fiber**: This week, short - fiber supply increased while demand remained stable. Factory sales were weak, and inventory rose. The trading strategy is short - term oscillation for unilateral trading, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and selling both call and put options [7][21]. - **Bottle - chip**: The bottle - chip operating rate weakened slightly this week, and the trading atmosphere was light. The trading strategy is short - term oscillation for unilateral trading, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and selling both call and put options [7][16]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis 3.2.1 Polyester - The polyester operating rate decreased slightly, production and sales were average, raw - material inventory decreased slightly, and processing fees fluctuated within a narrow range [10]. - The comprehensive operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing increased by 2% to 88%, the comprehensive operating rate of weaving decreased by 1% to 75%, and the comprehensive operating rate of printing and dyeing decreased by 2% to 80% [12]. - The production and sales of polyester filaments were weak, the operating rate changed little, factory inventory increased, and processing fees strengthened slightly. The average inventory days of polyester filaments increased by 0.7 days to 16.5 days [14]. - The bottle - chip trading atmosphere weakened, the operating rate decreased slightly, and the demand improvement in the off - season was limited [16]. - Short - fiber supply increased while demand remained stable, factory inventory increased, and the future demand showed a seasonal decline [21]. 3.2.2 PX - The PX trading atmosphere was light this week. The December spot floating price was negotiated around +4 to +7, and the January floating price was around +2. The paper - goods monthly spread maintained a back structure [22]. - The naphtha cracking spread strengthened, and the profitability of long - and short - process PX devices was good. The average weekly spread of Asian PXN was 238 dollars/ton, and the average weekly spread of PX - MX was 110 dollars/ton [24]. - The PX operating rate recovered, and the Asian PX operating rate remained at a high level [26]. 3.2.3 PTA - Since late September, PTA's social inventory has continuously increased, and the basis and monthly spread have remained weak [28]. - PTA's supply and demand both decreased this week, and the spot processing fee remained low, with an average weekly processing fee of around 136 yuan/ton [30]. 3.2.4 MEG - Recently, the willingness of holders to sell increased, and the basis fluctuated within a narrow range [33]. - MEG's supply and demand both decreased this week, and the operating rate declined. There was still an expectation of inventory accumulation in the future [43]. 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking 3.3.1 PX - **Price**: It shows the price trends of Asian PX, naphtha, and PX in the Chinese market [47]. - **Spreads and Profits**: It includes various spreads and profit indicators such as NAP Japan CFR - BLENT, PX - BLENT, PX - MX, etc. [49]. - **Disproportionation and Blending Oil Spreads and Profits**: It involves indicators such as the Asian toluene disproportionation - blending oil spread, toluene blending oil spread, and disproportionation profit [53]. - **Regional Spreads and Profits**: It shows the spreads and profits between different regions such as the United States and South Korea for toluene, xylene, and PX [56][57][59]. - **Supply and Demand**: It shows the PX operating rate and load in China and Asia [61][62]. 3.3.2 PTA - **Price**: It shows the spot prices of PTA and PX, and the spot processing fee and internal - external spread of PTA [67][68]. - **Spreads**: It includes the PTA01 basis and the PTA1 - 5 monthly spread [71]. - **Profits**: It shows the profits of PTA from crude oil, naphtha, and PX [73]. - **Supply and Demand**: It shows the PTA load index and polyester load [77]. - **Inventory**: It shows the PTA social inventory, factory inventory, and warehouse receipts [79]. 3.3.3 MEG - **Price**: It shows the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China and the prices of related raw materials [81]. - **Spreads**: It includes various spreads such as the internal - external spread of ethylene glycol, the East - South China spread, and the spot basis [83][86]. - **Profits**: It shows the profits of oil - based ethylene glycol production, MTO, and coal - based ethylene glycol production [93]. - **Supply and Demand**: It shows the ethylene glycol load index and the operating rate of synthetic - gas - based MEG [99]. 3.3.4 Polyester - **Profits**: It shows the weighted profit of polyester, the average profit of filaments, and the profits of short - fiber and bottle - chip [104]. - **Supply**: It shows the operating rates of polyester, bottle - chip, filaments, and short - fiber [106]. - **Inventory**: It shows the average inventory days of filaments, short - fiber inventory days, and the inventory days of different types of polyester filaments [109]. - **Demand**: It shows the operating rates of Jiangsu and Zhejiang printing and dyeing, weaving, and texturing, as well as the operating rate and inventory of pure - polyester yarn, and the export amount of textiles and clothing [112][117][120].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In November, with supply surplus, weak demand, and no new intensification in geopolitical situations, international crude oil is expected to run weakly. For PX, its load has recovered to a relatively high level, and with few maintenance plans in the fourth quarter, the rebound space for the PX - naphtha spread is limited [6]. - For PTA, multiple plants have maintenance expectations, so the supply is expected to decrease month - on - month. Although there are expectations for new polyester plant launches, demand will gradually decline after the traditional peak season, and polyester monthly output will decline. With the weak outlook for crude oil, the seasonal weakness of PTA in the distant end is hard to change, and it is expected to continue the range - bound pattern in November [6]. - For ethylene glycol (MEG), with the weakness of international crude oil, the supply - demand situation is expected to lead to inventory accumulation. However, the inventory at the main ports is at a low level, so MEG may continue to be under pressure, and the industry will continue the high - level hedging strategy [6]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Upstream Industry Chain Analysis - **1.1 Market Review**: In October, although the oil price dropped and cost support was weak, the downstream demand for PX showed a slight improvement. Terminal inventory - building enthusiasm increased, and the downstream was in the destocking stage. Coupled with the relatively low PX - naphtha spread at the end of September, the PX price rose slightly compared to the end of September. As of October 31, the closing price of Asian PX was 820.33 US dollars/ton CFR China, up 12 US dollars/ton from September 30, with a decline rate of 1.42% [12]. - **1.2 Maintenance and Restart**: In October, the Fuguidaohua 1.4 - million - ton plant was under maintenance, and the Urumqi Petrochemical was under maintenance for about half a month. The PX industry's operating load reached 90.1%, a month - on - month increase of 4% [15]. - **1.3 Demand and Spread**: As of October 31, the PX - naphtha spread reached 239.8 US dollars/ton, up 22.75 US dollars/ton from September 30. With the continuous destocking of downstream PTA, good polyester sales, reduced inventory, and enhanced terminal restocking enthusiasm, the PX - naphtha spread was significantly repaired [18]. 2. PTA Fundamental Analysis - **2.1 Market Review**: Drag from both cost and supply - demand factors led to a downward shift in the PTA price center. In the second half of the month, positive signals from the China - US economic and trade talks repaired market expectations for demand prospects, boosting market sentiment and causing the price to rebound from a low level. As of October 31, the PTA spot price was 4,510 yuan/ton, and the spot basis was 2601 - 71 [19]. - **2.2 Capacity Utilization**: In October, the PTA capacity utilization rate was 77.02%, a month - on - month increase of 1.63% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.77%. In November, plants such as Dushan Energy, Honggang Petrochemical, Sichuan Energy Investment, Ineos, Yisheng Ningbo, and Hengli Petrochemical have maintenance plans, and PTA monthly output is expected to decline [23]. - **2.3 Processing Fee**: In October, new plants were under trial operation, and previously maintained plants restarted. The destocking amplitude of supply - demand decreased, and terminal performance was below expectations, causing the PTA processing fee to continue to weaken. The average monthly PTA processing fee in October was 145.39 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 10.06% [28]. - **2.4 Supply - Demand Inventory**: In November, with the expected significant increase in supply from new PTA plants, and with plants under maintenance and restarting, and little change in demand, PTA supply - demand is expected to shift to inventory accumulation [29]. 3. MEG Fundamental Analysis - **3.1 Market Review**: In October, the sharp decline in international oil prices dragged down the cost of ethylene glycol. Maintenance enterprises restarted one after another, and new production capacity was released. With stable imports, the overall supply increased significantly. Terminal orders were mediocre, and downstream polyester inventory remained high. The East China spot price dropped below 4,100 yuan/ton from 4,214 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and then rebounded slightly to around 4,150 yuan/ton at the end of the month. As of October 31, the closing price of MEG in Zhangjiagang was 4,111 yuan/ton, and the delivered price in the South China market was 4,210 yuan/ton [34]. - **3.2 Production Capacity Utilization**: In October, the domestic ethylene glycol capacity utilization rate was about 66.82%. Among them, the capacity utilization rate of non - coal - based ethylene glycol was about 65.28%, and that of coal - based ethylene glycol was about 69.42% [35]. - **3.3 Port Inventory**: As of October 30, the total MEG inventory in the main ports of East China was 49.9 tons, an increase of 3.4 tons from October 27. As of November 6, 2025, the total expected arrival volume of domestic ethylene glycol in East China is 15 tons, including 6 tons in Zhangjiagang, 5 tons in Taicang, 2 tons in Ningbo, and 1.9 tons in Jiangyin [41]. - **3.4 Processing Profit**: With the increase in international oil prices, the cost - end support moved up. The domestic supply decreased briefly, and downstream polyester demand was stable. However, the supply - demand fundamentals were expected to be weak, and the ethylene glycol price fluctuated and consolidated. Currently, the sample profits of each process remain in a loss state. As of October 30, the naphtha profit dropped to - 116.86 US dollars/ton, and the integrated plants were still in a loss state, while the profits of other processes also maintained varying degrees of losses [44]. 4. Downstream Demand - Side Analysis of the Industry Chain - **4.1 Polyester Output**: In October, polyester output was 6.87 million tons, slightly higher than expected. The polyester production capacity base increased to 87.635 million tons, and the polyester capacity utilization rate was about 87.66%, also a slight increase compared to September [47]. - **4.2 Polyester Load**: In November, there are expectations for new plant launches, but as the traditional peak season ends, demand will gradually decline, and polyester monthly output will decline [49]. - **4.3 Polyester Product Inventory**: At the end of the month, downstream continued to replenish inventory, and the overall sales of polyester products increased. The finished - product inventory of polyester factories decreased in the latter part of the month [52]. - **4.4 Polyester Cash Flow**: With the increase in polymerization costs and limited increases in polyester filament prices, the cash flow of most models was compressed [57]. - **4.5 Weaving Industry**: As of October 30, the operating load of the weaving industry was 69%, a month - on - month increase of 2.55%. The average number of days for terminal weaving orders was 17.86 days, an increase of 2.18 days from the previous week. As the temperature drops, the market mainly focuses on winter orders for Double Eleven, but the export volume of stretch yarns has declined. Most manufacturers are cautious about November demand and are currently focusing on inventory digestion. If terminal orders cannot continue to increase, manufacturers may still reduce production to avoid risks [60].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The anti-involution of the polyester industry chain has fermented again, and the PTA and bottle-grade polyester chip industries will hold a development symposium to prevent and resolve involutionary competition [1]. - The PTA processing fee has been compressed to a low level, but with the end of this round of PTA production and the planned increase in polyester production capacity in 2026, the pattern of oversupply of PTA capacity and low processing fees is expected to gradually reverse [1]. - The recent rebound in crude oil prices is due to increased sanctions on Russia by the US and the EU, as well as other factors, but the contradiction of oversupply of crude oil has begun to materialize, and the macro situation is still unclear [2]. - The short-term rebound of PX floating prices is limited, and the rebound space of PXN is restricted due to fewer maintenance plans in the fourth quarter and capacity expansion of some devices [2]. - The PTA processing fee has been compressed to a low level, with more maintenance plans in the near term and less inventory accumulation pressure, but the pressure will gradually appear after November [2]. - The polyester operating rate is 91.4%, and domestic sales orders have improved significantly this week. The inventory of filaments has decreased significantly, but the current raw material inventory of weaving is not high [3]. - The spot production profit of PF is 202 yuan/ton, the short-fiber factory's sales are smooth, and the inventory continues to decrease [3]. - The spot processing fee of PR is 472 yuan/ton, the load remains stable, and attention should be paid to the later device load and new capacity release progress [3]. - For the futures market, PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated as neutral. It is recommended to go long on the PF processing fee at low prices and there is no recommendation for inter-period trading [4][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Price and Basis - The TA main contract spot basis is -81 yuan/ton (month-on-month change +2 yuan/ton), and the PTA spot processing fee is 91 yuan/ton (month-on-month change +23 yuan/ton) [2]. II. Upstream Profits and Spreads - The PXN is 234 US dollars/ton (month-on-month change -4.00 US dollars/ton), and the PXN rebound space is limited [2]. III. International Spreads and Import-Export Profits - Not provided in the content IV. Upstream PX and PTA Startups - The PX load in China has gradually recovered to a relatively high level, and the PTA near-term maintenance plans are many [2]. V. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The PTA inventory accumulation pressure after November will gradually appear [2]. VI. Downstream Polyester Load - The polyester operating rate is 91.4% (month-on-month +0.0%), and the load of weaving machines and texturing machines has rebounded significantly [3]. VII. PF Detailed Data - The spot production profit of PF is 202 yuan/ton (month-on-month -42 yuan/ton), and the short-fiber processing difference is moderately compressed to the 1100 - 1200 range [3]. VIII. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - The spot processing fee of PR is 472 yuan/ton (month-on-month change +1 yuan/ton), and the load remains stable [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Cost side: This week, oil prices rebounded. Tensions between the US and Venezuela, along with the US plan to purchase crude oil to replenish strategic reserves, supported the upward movement of oil prices. Subsequently, Trump's cancellation of the meeting with Putin and increased sanctions on Russia by Europe and the US affected crude oil supply expectations, driving a significant increase in oil prices. However, the contradiction of oversupply in the crude oil fundamentals has begun to materialize, and the macro - situation remains unclear. Attention should be paid to the progress of China - US negotiations and whether the Brent crude oil resistance level can be broken [1] - PX: This week, the operating rate of PX in China was 85.9% (a 1.0% increase from last week), and in Asia it was 78.5% (a 0.5% increase from last week). The load of domestic PX plants increased, mainly due to the fluctuating increase in the load of some domestic PX plants, while the overseas PX situation changed little. Recently, the PX load in China has gradually recovered to a relatively high level. Although the floating price has rebounded in the short term, the rebound space of PXN is limited due to fewer maintenance plans in the fourth quarter and the expansion of individual plants [1] - TA: The operating rate of PTA in China was 78.8% (a 2.1% increase from last week), and the spot processing fee was 67 yuan/ton (a decrease of 59 yuan from last week). The load of PTA increased slightly this week. With the expectation of new plant commissioning, the processing fee was compressed again. The near - term inventory accumulation pressure is not large, but it is reported that new plants are expected to be commissioned soon, and the inventory accumulation pressure will gradually appear after November. The long - term expectation is weak, and the current market spot supply is relatively abundant. Although the demand side has improved recently, the improvement of the long - term inventory accumulation expectation in the fundamentals is limited [2] - Demand: This week, the operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 75.0% (a 6.0% increase from last week), and the polyester operating rate was 91.4% (unchanged from last week). With the cooling weather and the start of the Double Eleven sales, domestic orders improved significantly this week. The load of looms and texturing machines rebounded sharply, and the raw material price rebound also drove concentrated restocking. The inventory of filament yarns decreased significantly. However, since the inventory is still at a seasonal high, the current raw material inventory of weaving factories is not high. Attention should be paid to whether there will be positive news from the China - US tariff negotiations at the end of the month to boost external demand. Currently, the inventory of polyester factories is not high, and the cash - flow profit is acceptable. The average load expectation for polyester in October and November is slightly increased [2] - PF: This week, the operating rate of direct - spinning polyester staple fiber was 94.3% (unchanged from last week). The inventory days of polyester staple fiber factories' equity were 7.7 days (a decrease of 1.4 days from last week), the operating rate of polyester yarn was 66.0% (unchanged from last week), the physical inventory of 1.4D was 15.0 days (a decrease of 0.8 days from last week), and the equity inventory of 1.4D was 3.4 days (a decrease of 1.6 days from last week). This week, the increase in the spot price of factories was less than that of futures, the basis and the price difference in the market narrowed, the sales of staple fiber factories were smooth, the inventory continued to decrease, and the load remained stable. The processing margin of staple fiber was moderately compressed to the range of 1100 - 1200. On the demand side, the sales of pure polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn were stable, and the operating rate remained stable [3] - PR: The operating rate of bottle - chip factories (based on maximum capacity) was 73.2% (an increase of 0.8%), the inventory of bottle - chip factories was 17.8 days (a decrease of 0.2 days from last week), and the spot processing fee of bottle - chips was 471 yuan/ton (a decrease of 77 yuan from last week). This week, the prices of upstream polyester raw materials increased, and the prices of polyester bottle - chip factories mostly followed the increase of raw materials. The overall processing range was slightly compressed. The low - end market transactions were acceptable, but the transactions were weak after the price increase in the second half of the week. Fundamentally, the load of bottle - chips remained stable this week, and large factories generally maintained production cuts. The inventory of polyester bottle - chip factories remained stable. With the improvement of processing efficiency, attention should be paid to whether the plant load will increase in the future and the progress of new capacity investment. In the future, as the demand gradually enters the off - season, the processing fee of polyester bottle - chips is expected to remain volatile overall, following the fluctuations of raw materials [3] - Strategy: Unilateral: Neutral for PX/PTA/PF/PR. The demand has improved due to the cooling weather, and the crude oil price has rebounded. Attention should be paid to the progress of China - US trade negotiations and geopolitical changes. For PX, the PX load in China has recently recovered to a relatively high level, and the rebound space of PXN is limited due to fewer maintenance plans in the fourth quarter and the expansion of individual plants. For TA, the near - term inventory accumulation pressure is not large, but it is reported that a 3 - million - ton new plant is expected to be commissioned in late October, and the inventory accumulation pressure will gradually appear after November, with a weak long - term expectation. The current market spot supply is relatively abundant, the PTA processing fee and valuation are at a low level, and the demand side has marginally improved with the cooling weather. Subsequently, attention should be paid to the China - US tariff game at the end of the month and the crude oil fluctuations under geopolitical changes. For PF, the demand for PF has slightly improved, the factory inventory has decreased to a low level, the short - term supply - demand situation of direct - spinning polyester staple fiber is better than that of raw materials, and the processing fee is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger. For PR, the fundamentals of bottle - chips have changed little, maintenance continues but demand is average, and the spot processing fee of bottle - chips is expected to fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to the fluctuations of raw material prices. Cross - variety: Go long on the PF processing fee at low prices: PF2512 - 0.855PTA2601 - 0.332MEG2601. Cross - term: None [4] Summary by Directory 1. Price and Spread - Figures show the trends of TA, PX, PF, and PR's main contracts, their basis, and cross - term spreads, as well as various processing fees, profits, and price differences [9][10][11] 2. PX and PTA Supply - Illustrate the operating rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the loads of PX in China and Asia [45][46][49] 3. Inventory - Present the weekly social inventory of PTA, monthly social inventory of PX, and various types of warehouse inventories of PTA, PX, and PF [54][56][66] 4. Demand - Include the production and sales of filament and staple fiber, the loads of polyester, direct - spinning filament, polyester staple fiber, and polyester bottle - chips, the inventory days of filament factories, and the operating rates of looms, texturing machines, and printing and dyeing factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, as well as the profits of filament [62][67][74] 5. PF Supply, Demand, and Inventory - Show the load of polyester staple fiber, the equity inventory days of polyester staple fiber factories, the physical and equity inventories of 1.4D, the load of recycled cotton - type staple fiber, the price difference between original and recycled fibers, and the operating rates and production profits of pure polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn [87][91][93] 6. PR Supply, Demand, and Inventory - Display the load of polyester bottle - chips, the inventory days of bottle - chip factories, the spot and export processing fees of bottle - chips, the export profit of bottle - chips, and the price difference between East China water bottle - chips and recycled 3A - grade white bottle - chips [110][111][115]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX: Short - term rebound, PXN compression. Demand improvement and cost support lead to a short - term rebound in PX unilateral price, and PXN should be shorted on rallies [3]. - PTA: Enter a positive feedback pattern in the short term, and the unilateral trend is regarded as strong [4]. - MEG: There is a short - term rebound, with positive spreads for month - to - month and basis, and short positions below 4000 should be reduced [6]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs PX Valuation - Domestic PX price rebounded significantly last week, and the forward curve of Zhengshang PX futures shifted downward overall. Overseas PX turned to B structure, and overseas aromatics valuation was supported by strong overseas oil cracking spreads. Attention should be paid to the aromatics blending demand in Asia in the fourth quarter [18][23][29][40]. - PX - MX spread remained around 100 US dollars/ton, and Asian MX blending for oil warmed up [44]. Supply and Demand - Domestic PX operating rate was at a historical high. In September, PX domestic output was 3220000 tons, and this week's operating rate was 85.9% (+1%). The apparent consumption in September was 4040000 tons, and the loss in September was 377000 tons. Next week, Fujia Dahua's 1.4 million - ton plant will gradually restart [50][51][52][56]. - In September, PX imports were expected to be 850000 tons. China's imports from South Korea were 330000 tons in September, and imports from Saudi Arabia remained low. The operating rate of Asian PX plants this week was 78.5% (+0.5%) [58][60][62]. Inventory - In September, Longzhong's monthly PX inventory decreased to 3.92 million tons (+3) [73]. PTA Valuation - The 1 - 5 month - to - month spread anti - arbitrage should be exited. Attention should be paid to the unplanned production cuts of PTA under low processing fees. PTA spot processing fees fell to 80 yuan/ton [79][82][83]. Supply and Demand - The operating rate remained around 78.8%. In September, PTA production was 6.02 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.2%. In September, PTA exports were 340000 tons, a month - on - month increase. PTA inventory was at a low level [88][91][106]. Position - The short positions of Morgan Qiankun in PTA decreased, and the short positions of foreign capital seats increased to 202000 lots (-13000) this week [110][112]. MEG Valuation - The price rebounded from the bottom this week, and the basis recovered. The valuation of MEG relative to ethylene oxide, styrene, and plastics all rebounded to the highest level this year. Coal - based plant profits were - 2 yuan/ton (-50), and oil - based plants continued to be in a loss pattern [120][125][128]. Supply and Demand - The operating rate reached a new high this year. The MEG plant load was 73.3% (-3.9%), and the coal - based operating rate was 82.2% (+0.3%). In September, imports were 620000 tons. Overseas, multiple sets of plants were shut down for maintenance, and the European arbitrage window was gradually closing. Port inventory increased marginally [131][133][134][137][142]. Polyester Supply and Demand - The polyester load remained at 91.4% (-%). Due to the cold air moving south and the continuous improvement of Double Eleven orders, the downstream loom order index rebounded, and the finished fabric inventory continued to decline. The market expected the polyester load to be 91.5% in October, 91% in November, and 90% in December. Polyester production increased by 7% year - on - year [148][152]. Inventory - The downstream purchasing enthusiasm increased, and the inventory pressure of filament yarn was relieved [155].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX: Last week, PXN was slightly compressed. Due to weak fundamentals and limited by PTA processing fees, the overall valuation was difficult to expand. The price rose passively following crude oil. Currently, PX load remains high, with many PTA downstream overhauls and a low overall load center. The expectation of new PTA device production suppresses PTA processing fees, making it difficult to continuously reduce PX inventory. There is currently no driving force, and PXN is difficult to expand actively due to PTA processing fees. The valuation is at a neutral level, mainly following crude oil fluctuations. There is a risk of negative feedback under the reality of low PTA processing fees. Short - term observation is recommended [11]. - PTA: Last week, PTA processing fees continued to be compressed in a weak pattern. Even though terminal data improved significantly, it was essentially due to the difficult - to - relieve pressure expectation on the supply side. Therefore, this week's rebound was mainly a passive rebound following costs. In the future, the short - term supply - side overhaul volume will decrease, turning to slight inventory accumulation. Due to the weak long - term pattern expectation, processing fees are difficult to expand. On the demand side, the inventory and profit pressure of polyester chemical fibers are low, and the load is expected to remain high. However, due to inventory pressure and the off - season of downstream bottle chips, the bottle chip load is difficult to increase, and the probability of further boosting the polyester load is small. The improved terminal data is difficult to be reflected in the already high polyester chemical fiber load. In terms of valuation, PXN is continuously suppressed by continuous PTA overhauls under low processing fees. There is even a risk of negative feedback under the reality of low PTA processing fees. Short - term observation is recommended [12]. - MEG: In terms of industrial fundamentals, the load of domestic and overseas devices is at a high level, the domestic supply is high, and the import volume has rebounded, with ports turning to inventory accumulation. In the medium term, as imports arrive in a concentrated manner and the domestic load is expected to remain high, coupled with the gradual commissioning of new devices, inventory accumulation is expected to continue in the fourth quarter. The current valuation is still relatively high compared to the same period, and there is pressure for continuous compression in the weak pattern. It is recommended to short on rallies [13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **PX** - **Price performance**: Last week, it rebounded significantly. The 01 contract rose 230 yuan in a single week, reporting 6522 yuan. The spot - end CFR China rose 32 dollars, reporting 815 dollars. The spot - converted basis rose 30 yuan, reaching 141 yuan as of October 24. The 1 - 3 spread rose 2 yuan, reaching - 8 yuan as of October 24 [11]. - **Supply side**: Last week, the Chinese load was 85.9%, a 1% increase month - on - month; the Asian load was 78.5%, a 0.5% increase month - on - month. In terms of devices, there were few overall changes in China. Overseas, a 540,000 - ton device of Thailand's PTTG was under overhaul, and the Saudi overhaul was postponed. In terms of imports, South Korea exported 256,000 tons of PX to China in the first and middle ten - days of October, a year - on - year increase of 19,000 tons. Overall, the subsequent domestic overhaul volume is still small, and the load remains high [11]. - **Demand side**: The PTA load was 78.8%, a 2.8% increase month - on - month. In terms of devices, Yisheng Ningbo slightly reduced its load, and the load of individual devices recovered. The PTA overhaul volume in October decreased slightly, and the overall load was low under low processing fees [11]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory at the end of August was 3.918 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 19,000 tons. According to the balance sheet, there was a slight inventory increase in September. Due to the slight decrease in PTA overhaul volume in October, a slight inventory reduction is expected [11]. - **Valuation cost side**: As of October 23, last week's PXN was 239 dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1 dollar; the naphtha spread decreased by 9 dollars, reaching 90 dollars as of October 23, and crude oil rebounded significantly. In terms of aromatic hydrocarbon blending for oil, last week, the US gasoline spread remained stable, the Asian gasoline spread was relatively strong, the US - South Korea aromatic hydrocarbon spread increased, and the relative value of blending for oil increased [11]. - **PTA** - **Price performance**: Last week, it rebounded significantly. The 01 contract rose 116 yuan in a single week, reporting 4518 yuan. The spot - end East China price rose 110 yuan, reporting 4450 yuan. The spot basis rose 2 yuan, reaching - 83 yuan as of October 24. The 1 - 5 spread decreased by 8 yuan, reaching - 66 yuan as of October 24 [12]. - **Supply side**: The PTA load was 78.8%, a 2.8% increase month - on - month. In terms of devices, Yisheng Ningbo slightly reduced its load, and the load of individual devices recovered. The PTA overhaul volume in October decreased slightly, and the overall load was low under low processing fees [12]. - **Demand side**: Last week, the polyester load was 91.4%, remaining flat month - on - month. Among them, the filament load was 92.4%, a 0.4% decrease month - on - month; the staple fiber load was 94.3%, remaining flat month - on - month; the bottle chip load was 73.2%, a 0.8% increase month - on - month. In terms of devices, there were few overall changes. In terms of polyester, profits improved, and short - term inventory pressure decreased significantly. The load is expected to remain high; bottle chips are restricted by inventory pressure and the downstream off - season, and the load will remain stable in the short term. At the terminal, finished product inventory decreased, orders increased, the texturing load was 84%, a 4% increase month - on - month; the loom load was 75%, a 6% increase month - on - month; the polyester yarn load was 66%, remaining flat month - on - month. In September, domestic textile and clothing retail sales increased by 4.7% year - on - year, and exports decreased by 8.3% year - on - year [12]. - **Inventory**: As of October 17, the overall PTA social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 2.176 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 16,000 tons, with a slight inventory increase. The downstream load remains high, but the PTA overhaul volume in October has decreased slightly, and slight inventory accumulation is expected [12]. - **Profit side**: Last week, the spot processing fee decreased by 60 yuan, reaching 79 yuan/ton as of October 24; the disk processing fee decreased by 35 yuan, reaching 240 yuan/ton as of October 24 [12]. - **MEG** - **Price performance**: Last week, it rebounded significantly. The 01 contract rose 74 yuan in a single week, reporting 4077 yuan. The spot - end East China price rose 72 yuan, reporting 4187 yuan. The basis rose 19 yuan, reaching 93 yuan as of October 24. The 1 - 5 spread rose 6 yuan, reaching - 76 yuan as of October 24 [13]. - **Supply side**: Last week, the EG load was 73.3%, a 3.7% decrease month - on - month. Among them, the synthetic gas - based load was 82.2%, a 0.8% increase month - on - month; the ethylene - based load was 68.2%, a 6.3% decrease month - on - month. In terms of synthetic gas - based devices, there were few device changes; in terms of petrochemicals, Fulein and Shenghong were under overhaul, CNOOC Shell restarted, and Sinopec Zhongke Refining had a short - term shutdown; overseas, Shell in the United States restarted. Overall, there are few subsequent overhaul devices, the load will remain high, and there is pressure for further increase. In terms of arrivals, last week's arrival forecast was 53,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 49,000 tons. In September, imports were 620,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30,000 tons [13]. - **Demand side**: Last week, the polyester load was 91.4%, remaining flat month - on - month. Among them, the filament load was 92.4%, a 0.4% decrease month - on - month; the staple fiber load was 94.3%, remaining flat month - on - month; the bottle chip load was 73.2%, a 0.8% increase month - on - month. In terms of devices, there were few overall changes. In terms of polyester, profits improved, and short - term inventory pressure decreased significantly. The load is expected to remain high; bottle chips are restricted by inventory pressure and the downstream off - season, and the load will remain stable in the short term. At the terminal, finished product inventory decreased, orders increased, the texturing load was 84%, a 4% increase month - on - month; the loom load was 75%, a 6% increase month - on - month; the polyester yarn load was 66%, remaining flat month - on - month. In September, domestic textile and clothing retail sales increased by 4.7% year - on - year, and exports decreased by 8.3% year - on - year [13]. - **Inventory**: As of October 20, the port inventory was 579,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 38,000 tons; the downstream factory inventory days were 13.4 days, a 0.2 - day increase month - on - month. In the short term, the arrival volume was moderately low last week, the departure volume increased, and the port inventory is expected to decrease slightly. With a high domestic load and an increase in overseas arrivals, ethylene glycol has entered an inventory accumulation cycle [13]. - **Valuation cost side**: The naphtha - based profit decreased by 123 yuan to - 611 yuan/ton, the domestic ethylene - based profit increased by 80 yuan to - 646 yuan/ton, and the coal - based profit decreased by 475 yuan to 253 yuan/ton. The cost of ethylene was 780 dollars/ton, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal fines was 660 yuan/ton. The cost of coal rebounded, and ethylene prices fell. Currently, the overall valuation is relatively high [13]. 3.2. Spot and Futures Market - **PX**: The basis strengthened, and the monthly spread fluctuated weakly [32]. - **PTA**: The basis was at a low level, and the monthly spread weakened. The trading volume and open interest were at low levels [44][47]. - **MEG**: The basis strengthened, and the monthly spread was weak. The trading volume and open interest were at low levels [56][63]. 3.3. PX Fundamentals - **Capacity and load**: In 2025, Yantai Yulongdao in Shandong is expected to add 3 million tons of new PX capacity in the second half of the year. Last week, the Chinese PX load was 85.9%, a 1% increase month - on - month; the Asian load was 78.5%, a 0.5% increase month - on - month [77][11]. - **Imports**: In September, the PX import volume remained stable [83]. - **Inventory**: In August, the inventory remained stable [91]. - **Cost - profit**: PXN contracted, the short - process spread increased, and the naphtha spread decreased [95]. - **Aromatic hydrocarbon blending for oil**: Asian gasoline performed strongly, the US - South Korea aromatic hydrocarbon spread increased, and the relative value of blending for oil increased [102][110][112]. 3.4. PTA Fundamentals - **Capacity and load**: In 2025, Honggang Petrochemical (Phase III), Hailun Petrochemical 3, and Dushan Energy 4 are expected to add new PTA capacities. Last week, the PTA load was 78.8%, a 2.8% increase month - on - month [134][12]. - **Exports**: Relevant data on PTA exports are provided, including exports to India, Turkey, and Vietnam [139]. - **Inventory**: The inventory remains at a low level [140]. - **Profit**: The spot and disk processing fees decreased last week [12]. 3.5. Ethylene Glycol (MEG) Fundamentals - **Capacity and load**: In 2025, Yulong Petrochemical 1 and Yichang (Kunpeng Phase I) are expected to add new MEG capacities. Last week, the EG load was 73.3%, a 3.7% decrease month - on - month. The synthetic gas - based device load was at a historical high [145][13][148]. - **Imports**: Data on MEG imports from Canada, Saudi Arabia, and the United States are provided [150]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory increased slightly this week, and the inventory of upstream and downstream factories increased [152]. - **Cost**: Coal prices rebounded, and ethylene was weak [162]. - **Profit**: The naphtha - based profit remained continuously high, and the coal - based profit was compressed [165]. 3.6. Polyester and Terminal - **Polyester** - **New device production**: There are new polyester filament and bottle chip devices going into production [180]. - **Basis**: The staple fiber basis strengthened, and the bottle chip basis fluctuated [184]. - **Supply**: The operating rate remained at a high level [187]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of polyester products such as filaments, staple fibers, and bottle chips is presented [193][195]. - **Profit**: The filament profit decreased [201]. - **Terminal** - **Textile enterprise orders and inventory**: Orders increased, inventory decreased, and raw material inventory preparation increased [207]. - **Textile and clothing and soft drinks**: Domestic textile and clothing consumption growth recovered, and exports were weak [212]. - **US clothing inventory**: The wholesale inventory is below the pre - pandemic high, and the inventory is increasing marginally [214].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The PTA market is affected by factors such as supply contraction, low processing fees, and concerns about future textile and clothing demand after the "Golden September and Silver October" period. The industry profit is constrained by over - capacity due to new device production, and the PTA price is difficult to move independently due to the decline in crude oil prices [2] - The ethylene glycol market has low port inventories, limited port arrivals, and expected decline in overseas imports. However, domestic device production puts pressure on prices, and it is expected to operate weakly with the end of the polyester peak season and the decline in the crude oil fundamentals [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - **Crude Oil**: The INE crude oil price rose from 437.7 yuan/barrel on October 21, 2025, to 447.2 yuan/barrel on October 22, 2025, an increase of 9.5 yuan/barrel [2] - **PTA**: The PTA主力期价 increased from 4414 yuan/ton to 4482 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose from 4320 yuan/ton to 4370 yuan/ton. The spot and disk processing fees decreased, and the PTA - SC decreased slightly [2] - **PX**: The CFR China PX price increased from 784 to 798, and the PX - naphtha spread increased by 11 [2] - **MEG**: The MEG主力期价 rose from 4004 yuan/ton to 4051 yuan/ton. The spot price in Zhangjiagang increased, and the basis strengthened [2] - **Polyester Filament**: The prices of POY150D/48F and DTY150D/48F increased slightly, while the price of FDY150D/96F decreased slightly. The cash flows of POY, FDY, and DTY all decreased [2] - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: The price of 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber increased from 6340 to 6365, and the cash flow decreased from 381 to 353 [2] - **Polyester Chip**: The price of semi - bright chips increased from 5465 to 5485, and the cash flow decreased from 56 to 23 [2] 3.2 Industry Start - up Rate - **PX**: The start - up rate remained at 84.62% [2] - **PTA**: The start - up rate remained at 76.95% [2] - **MEG**: The start - up rate decreased from 65.39% to 63.35%, a decrease of 2.04 percentage points [2] - **Polyester Load**: The polyester load remained at 89.38% [2] 3.3 Transaction Suggestions - **PTA**: The game intensifies, with emotions and fundamentals resonating. The supply side of PTA is shrinking, and the processing fees continue to be low. The industry profit is affected by over - capacity, and the start - up rate may decline further [2] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The port inventory is low, but domestic device production puts pressure on prices. It is expected to operate weakly with the end of the polyester peak season and the decline in the crude oil fundamentals [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The polyester industry chain is operating weakly, and attention should be paid to macro - changes. The current situation is affected by the Sino - US trade war, and the meeting between the leaders of the two countries around the end of the month should be continuously monitored. The 4th Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee will discuss the "15th Five - Year Plan" and economic work, which also needs attention [2]. - In terms of the cost side, there is a supply - surplus contradiction due to the slowdown in China's import demand after the National Day and the increase in US and Middle - East exports. The macro and fundamentals are in resonance, putting pressure on the fundamentals without a clear rebound driver [3]. - PX is under pressure due to the recovery of China's PX load to a relatively high level, few fourth - quarter maintenance plans, and capacity expansion of some devices. The downstream PTA plants have many maintenance plans, and the PX supply - demand support is limited [3]. - TA has a new device expected to be put into operation next month, with increasing inventory pressure after November. The cost - side support is weakening, and the demand is not strong during the peak season due to tariffs [3]. - The polyester start - up rate is 91.4% (down 0.1% month - on - month). After the National Day, the market calmed down, and filament inventory increased again. Terminal raw material procurement is mainly cautious. The weaving and texturing load decreased this week under high tariffs [4]. - PF has improved demand, with factory inventory reduced to a low level. The short - term supply - demand situation of direct - spun polyester staple fiber is better than that of the raw material end, and the processing fee is expected to be strong [4][5]. - PR's fundamentals have little change, with maintenance continuing but general demand. The spot processing fee of bottle chips is expected to fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to raw material price fluctuations [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - The report includes figures such as the TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [10][11][13]. Upstream Profit and Spread - Figures cover PX processing fee PXN (PX China CFR - naphtha Japan CFR), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [18][21]. International Spread and Import - Export Profit - It involves figures like the toluene US - Asia spread (FOB US Gulf - FOB South Korea), toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [26][28]. Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures show the operating rates of China, South Korea, and Taiwan's PTA, as well as China's and Asia's PX [29][32][34]. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - It includes figures of PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [37][40][41]. Downstream Polyester Load - Figures cover filament production and sales, short - fiber production and sales, polyester load, direct - spun filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle chip load, filament factory inventory days, and the operating rates of Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving, texturing, and dyeing [50][52][54]. PF Detailed Data - It includes figures of polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, difference between raw and recycled fibers, pure polyester yarn operating rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn operating rate, and polyester - cotton yarn processing fee [71][82][86]. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures cover polyester bottle chip load, bottle chip factory bottle chip inventory days, bottle chip spot processing fee, bottle chip export processing fee, bottle chip export profit, difference between East China water bottle chips and recycled 3A - grade white bottle chips, bottle chip next - month spread, and bottle chip next - next - month spread [89][91][99].