乙二醇累库逐渐兑现， PX持续受下游压制 聚酯月报 2025/10/10 马桂炎（联系人） 13923915659 magy@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0020397 从业资格号：F03136381 刘洁文（能源化工组） 从业资格号：F03097315 CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 04 PTA基本面 02 期现市场 05 MEG基本面 03 对二甲苯基本面 06 聚酯及终端 01 月度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 行情回顾：上月价格震荡下跌，截至10月9日，01合约收盘价4584元，月同比下跌148元；华东现货价格4500元，同比下跌120元。基差和价 差方面，截至10月9日，基差-63元，月同比持平；1-5价差-48元，同比下跌8元。 ◆ 供应端：月底PTA负荷74.4%，月环比上升2.2%。九月检修装置有所减少，整体负荷高于八月。十月预期维持较高的检修量，负荷相对持稳。 ◆ 需求端：月底聚酯负荷91.5%，同比上升0.2%，其中长丝负荷93.8%，上升0.4%；短纤负荷94.3%，上升0.4%；甁片负荷72.4%，下降0.5%。涤 纶方面，库存压力较低，长丝利润为正，短纤利润改善，短期负荷 ...

作者：赵婷 审核：王艳红 投资咨询编号：Z0016344 投资咨询编号：Z0010675 Email: zhaot@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851659 内容要点 PTA：供需转弱预期下，PTA偏弱震荡 MEG：供应明显回升预期下，MEG难有起色 正信期货聚酯月报 20251009 数据来源：WIND,隆众 | 开工率 | 76.0343 | (%) | 开工率 | 66.64 | (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 价格 | 4545 | 元/吨 | 价格 | 4275 | 元/吨 | | 涨跌 | -4.11% | PTA | 涨跌 | -5.71% | MEG | | PTA加工费 | 211.7133 | | 油制利润 | -128.764 | | | 加工费涨跌 | 22.60% | | 煤制利润 | -287.7 | | 开工率 87.6229 聚酯(%) 元/吨 POY FDY DTY 开工率 元/吨 元/吨 | 价格 | 5750 | 瓶片 | 价格 | 6625 | 6700 | 7800 | 91.54 | 长丝 | 价 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated as neutral in the short term and bearish in the medium term [4] Core View of the Report - Near the holiday, the polyester industry chain is oscillating. The cost - end oil price has rebounded, and geopolitical factors need to be continuously monitored. The supply - demand situation of PX in the fourth quarter is expected to weaken, and the support at the bottom has weakened. The near - end fundamentals of TA have improved, but there is still a large inventory accumulation pressure in December. The demand for polyester has improved marginally, but the high - level increase in polyester load is limited. The short - term supply - demand situation of PF is better than that of the raw material end, and the processing fee of PR is expected to oscillate in a range [1][2][4] Summary According to the Directory Price and Basis - Relevant charts include TA and PX's main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spreads, as well as PTA's East China spot basis and short - fiber basis [9][10][12] Upstream Profits and Spreads - Relevant charts cover PX processing fees, PTA spot processing fees, South Korean xylene isomerization profits, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profits [17][20] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Relevant charts involve toluene's US - Asia spread, toluene's South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR spread, and PTA export profits [25][27] Upstream PX and PTA Startup - Relevant charts show the operating rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the operating rates of PX in China and Asia [28][31][33] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Relevant charts present PTA's weekly social inventory, PX's monthly social inventory, and various warehouse receipt inventories of PX, PTA, and PF [36][39][40] Downstream Polyester Load - Relevant charts cover the production and sales of filaments and short - fibers, polyester load, factory inventory days of various filaments, and the operating rates of textile, texturing, and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang [48][50][61] Detailed PF Data - Relevant charts include the load of polyester staple fiber, inventory days, the load of recycled cotton - type staple fiber, the spread between raw and recycled fibers, and the operating rates and profits of pure polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn [73][74][84] Detailed PR Fundamental Data - Relevant charts involve the load of polyester bottle chips, factory inventory days, spot and export processing fees, export profits, and inter - month spreads [94][96][103]

2、行业集中度高，合作基础良好，龙头有望开启联合减产。 消息面上，PTA-聚酯产业链或将联合减产，反内卷加速行业上行。 目前逸盛、恒力、桐昆、新凤鸣、盛虹、三房巷6家产能集中度已经达到74%，联合减产条件良好。龙 头以及行业协会正在商讨PTA的联合减产形式，或将对低加工费采取修复行动。 3、PTA-长丝有望进入双重景气周期，反内卷加速拐点到来。 1、行业景气基本触底，效益改善诉求明显。 过去五年PTA行业快速扩张，产能年均复合增速达到11%，至25年8月底国内产能总量已达到8,855万 吨。供给端快速释放导致PTA盈利逐步收窄，尤其今年9月份PTA价差已经降低至100元/吨以内。不考虑 正在停车的1100万吨产能，PTA平均开工率已经降低至78%，行业景气触底，大厂效益改善诉求明显。 2025年PTA新增产能盛虹、三房巷、新凤鸣三套装置共计870万吨新增，目前已投2套，10月份新凤鸣 300万吨装置投放之后， 这一轮新增产能周期结束。PTA后续目前没有新增产能，行业有望触底回升。 同时，2026年长丝新增产能也较少，产能增速仅3%左右。PTA-长丝供给拐点同时到来，两者有望进入 双重景气周期，本次联合反内卷加 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - PTA: Domestic PTA device returns gradually, increasing PTA output and causing the PTA basis to decline rapidly. OPEC+ raises oil production, leading to a significant drop in crude oil prices and a contraction in the spread between PX and naphtha. With weakening sales and rising inventory, especially as the off - season approaches, PTA shows weak performance due to falling crude oil prices and a weakening basis [2] - Ethylene glycol: The inventory of ethylene glycol ports in East China continues to decline, and it is expected to continue to deplete. Although the import of ethylene glycol in the overseas market is expected to decline, domestic device production puts continuous pressure on the ethylene glycol price. Coal - based ethylene glycol devices are also returning. Polyester inventory is in good condition, and the downstream weaving load is rising [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Data Changes - **Crude oil and PTA - related**: INE crude oil price dropped from 483.0 yuan/barrel on September 22, 2025, to 473.1 yuan/barrel on September 23, 2025, a decrease of 9.90 yuan/barrel. PTA - SC decreased by 9.90 yuan/ton, PTA/SC ratio increased by 41.94, and the PTA - SC ratio coefficient increased by 0.0186. CFR China PX decreased by 5, PX - naphtha spread decreased by 4. PTA main contract futures price decreased by 30.0 yuan/ton, PTA spot price decreased by 40.0 yuan/ton, spot processing fee decreased by 0.2 yuan/ton, and disk processing fee decreased by 0.2 yuan/ton [2] - **Ethylene glycol - related**: MEG main contract futures price decreased by 28.0 yuan/ton, MEG - naphtha decreased by 4.2 yuan/ton, MEG domestic price decreased by 47.0 yuan/ton, and the main contract basis decreased by 17.0 [2] - **Polyester product - related**: POY150D/48F increased by 20.0 yuan/ton, POY cash flow increased by 70.0. FDY150D/96F remained unchanged, FDY cash flow increased by 50.0. DTY150D/48F remained unchanged, DTY cash flow increased by 50.0. Long - filament sales decreased by 19%. 1.4D direct - spinning polyester staple fiber decreased by 6549 yuan/ton, polyester staple fiber cash flow decreased by 6499.0, and staple - fiber sales remained at 48%. Semi - bright chips decreased by 50.0 yuan/ton, chip cash flow remained unchanged, and chip sales decreased by 6% [2] 2. Industrial Chain Start - up Situation - PX start - up rate remained at 85.57%, PTA start - up rate increased from 76.82% to 79.38%, an increase of 2.56%. MEG start - up rate increased from 62.20% to 62.62%, an increase of 0.42%. Polyester load remained at 89.00% [2] 3. Device Maintenance - Two sets of PTA devices in South China with a total capacity of 5 million tons have reduced their loads recently due to weather, and the recovery time is to be tracked [2]

化工日报 | 2025-09-24 旺季不旺，聚酯产业链偏弱运行 市场要闻与数据 无 市场分析 成本端，近期油价震荡运行，关注俄乌动态。随着欧美炼厂进入传统检修季，需求面临季节性回落，前期EFS已经 跌至历史低位，近期油轮运费飙升表明未来数月内会有大量西区套利船货流入东区，从而冲击沙特的市场与定价 策略，东区市场的实货偏紧将得到彻底缓解，当前多头仅有中国SPR补库这一话题可供炒作，但从船期和库存上看， 无法得到印证。 PX方面，上上个交易日PXN212美元/吨(环比变动-6.88美元/吨）。近期PX四季度供需面转弱，PXN走弱。中国PX 负荷陆续恢复至偏高负荷运行，同时短期内海外开工将进一步走高。由于综合生产效益较好，国内部分PX装置四 季度检修推迟至明年，以及个别装置四季度扩能，PX供应较预期继续增加。而下游PTA工厂在效益大幅压缩后， 新装置投产推迟和部分装置检修落地，且时间较长，PX四季度供需面预期明显弱化，去库转为累库下方支撑转弱。 关注后续利润压缩下的检修情况。 TA方面，TA主力合约现货基差 -79 元/吨(环比变动+5元/吨），PTA现货加工费159元/吨（环比变动-12元/吨），主 力合约盘面 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - sentiment is weak due to the Fed's 25 - basis - point interest rate cut, increased risks of employment decline and inflation rise, and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East is heating up, causing oil prices to fluctuate at a high level. The prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and PR in the polyester industry chain are all expected to show a volatile trend. The supply and demand of each product have different changes, and their prices are greatly affected by oil prices and the macro - situation [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **PX&PTA**: PX and PTA have both supply and demand decreasing. PX has some device maintenance and production plans adjustment, and PTA's processing fee is compressed. The price is affected by oil prices and the macro - situation, with a trading strategy of unilateral oscillation, and arbitrage and options on the sidelines [8]. - **MEG**: Supply decreases and demand increases this week, and the supply is expected to increase in the future. The port inventory is low, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate. The trading strategy is unilateral oscillation, and arbitrage and options on the sidelines [8]. - **PF**: Short - fiber factory inventory decreases, and the processing fee strengthens slightly. The downstream is in a loss state, and the price follows the raw material trend. The trading strategy is unilateral oscillation, and arbitrage and options on the sidelines [8]. - **PR**: The market trading atmosphere is dull, the factory starts to decline, and the processing fee strengthens slightly. The supply is still relatively abundant, and the demand is transitioning from peak to off - peak season. The trading strategy is unilateral oscillation, and arbitrage and options on the sidelines [8]. 3.2 Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis 3.2.1 Polyester - The polyester production and sales are weak this week, the start - up rate decreases, and the processing fee strengthens slightly. The traditional peak season has limited order volume, and the inventory reduction is slow. Different polyester products have different profit situations [11]. 3.2.2 PX - The spot floating price, basis, and monthly spread of PX continue to weaken. The start - up rate is still at a high level, and the profit of long - and short - process devices is slightly compressed [29][31][36]. 3.2.3 PTA - PTA has both supply and demand decreasing, and the processing fee is further compressed. The start - up rate is expected to rise first and then fall due to device maintenance and production plans [38][40]. 3.2.4 MEG - The basis and monthly spread of MEG weaken. The supply is expected to increase due to device maintenance restarts and new device commissions, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate [42][43][51]. 3.3 Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking 3.3.1 PX - **Price**: It shows the price trends of PX and related products in the industrial chain [55]. - **Variety Spread & Profit**: It presents the spreads and profits between PX and other varieties [60]. - **Disproportionation and Oil - Blending Spread & Profit**: It shows the spreads and profits related to PX disproportionation and oil - blending [64]. - **Regional Spread & Profit**: It shows the spreads and profits between different regions of PX [66][67]. - **Supply and Demand**: It shows the supply and demand situation of PX, including load and start - up rate [71]. 3.3.2 PTA - **Price**: It shows the price trends of PTA and related products, as well as basis and monthly spreads [73][76]. - **Profit**: It shows the profit situation of PTA under different raw material bases [78]. - **Supply and Demand**: It shows the load and start - up rate of PTA and polyester [82]. - **Inventory**: It shows the inventory situation of PTA in different links [84]. 3.3.3 MEG - **Price**: It shows the price trends of MEG and related raw materials [86]. - **Spread**: It shows various spreads of MEG, including internal - external spreads and regional spreads [88]. - **Profit**: It shows the profit situation of MEG under different production processes [97]. - **Supply and Demand**: It shows the load and start - up rate of MEG and the inventory situation in the main port [103][105]. 3.3.4 Polyester - **Profit**: It shows the profit situation of different polyester products [108]. - **Supply**: It shows the load of different polyester products [110]. - **Inventory**: It shows the inventory situation of different polyester products [112]. - **Demand**: It shows the demand situation of polyester from different aspects such as downstream start - up rates, export data, and domestic consumption data [115][124][125].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PX, last week, PXN oscillated downward. The main reasons were the postponement of PX maintenance plans, numerous unexpected maintenance of downstream PTA under low processing fees, and the delay of new device commissioning. The overall load was low, making it difficult for PX to reduce inventory. With weak terminal performance, PXN lacked the momentum to expand. Currently, PX load remains high, while downstream PTA has many unexpected short - term maintenance, with a low overall load center. The expected delay of new PTA device commissioning and PX maintenance is expected to continue the PX inventory accumulation cycle. The valuation is currently at a moderately low level. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [11]. - Regarding PTA, last week, PXN continued to be weak, PTA processing fees rebounded, and the overall price slightly decreased. The valuation was slightly repaired, but the upward space was relatively limited. On one hand, the terminal performance continued to be weaker than expected. On the other hand, even though PTA continued to reduce inventory through maintenance, the long - term outlook was still weak under the commissioning pressure. In the future, the unexpected maintenance volume on the supply side remains high, and the inventory reduction pattern will continue. However, due to the weak long - term pattern, the processing fee space is limited. On the demand side, the inventory and profit pressure of polyester and chemical fiber are low, and the load is expected to remain high. But the weak terminal performance exerts pressure on raw materials. In terms of valuation, PXN is continuously affected by the weak terminal performance and the continuous unexpected maintenance of PTA under low processing fees. The upward valuation needs to be driven by the improvement of the terminal or the maintenance of raw materials. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [12]. - Concerning MEG, the industrial fundamentals show that the load of domestic and overseas devices is at a high level, and the domestic supply is high. But in the short term, due to the low port arrival volume, the port inventory is expected to be low. In the medium term, as imports arrive in a concentrated manner and the domestic load is expected to remain high, coupled with the gradual commissioning of new devices, the inventory will increase in the fourth quarter. The current valuation is relatively high year - on - year. It is recommended to short - allocate on rallies under the weak outlook, but beware of the risk that the weak expectation may not be realized [13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **PX**: The price decreased last week. The 11 - contract dropped by 118 yuan to 6594 yuan, and the spot CFR China price fell by 16 dollars to 816 dollars. The supply load decreased slightly, with the Chinese load at 86.3% (down 1.5% month - on - month) and the Asian load at 78.2% (down 0.8% month - on - month). The demand side saw a PTA load of 75.9% (down 0.9% month - on - month). Inventory is expected to accumulate. The PXN decreased to 227 dollars, and the naphtha crack spread fell to 108 dollars. It is recommended to wait and see [11]. - **PTA**: The price slightly declined. The 01 - contract dropped by 44 yuan to 4604 yuan. The supply load was 75.9% (down 0.9% month - on - month). The demand side had a polyester load of 91.4% (down 0.2% month - on - month). Inventory slightly increased, and the processing fee rebounded. It is recommended to wait and see [12]. - **MEG**: The price dropped. The 01 - contract fell by 15 yuan to 4257 yuan. The supply load was 73.8% (down 1.1% month - on - month). The demand side had a polyester load of 91.4% (down 0.2% month - on - month). Port inventory is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term and increase in the medium term. It is recommended to short - allocate on rallies [13]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **PX**: The basis oscillated, and the spread weakened. The position and trading volume increased [32][35]. - **PTA**: The basis declined, and the spread weakened. The position and trading volume were at a low level [43][46]. - **MEG**: The basis decreased, and the spread weakened. The position and trading volume were at a low level [54][62]. - **Overseas Commodity Prices**: Data on overseas prices of PX, MEG, and PTA FOB China were presented [71]. 3.3. p - Xylene Fundamentals - **Capacity and Production**: New capacity is expected to be added in 2025. The Chinese and Asian operating rates showed certain trends [76][78]. - **Import**: The import volume in July remained stable [82]. - **Inventory**: The inventory continued to decline in July [93]. - **Cost and Profit**: PXN weakened, the short - process spread was relatively strong, and the naphtha crack spread oscillated upward [97]. - **Aromatic Blending Oil**: The gasoline performance was weak, and there were various indicators and trends in aromatic blending oil [104]. 3.4. PTA Fundamentals - **Capacity and Production**: New capacity has been added in 2024 and 2025. The load showed certain fluctuations [137][140]. - **Export**: The export volume rebounded in July [142]. - **Inventory**: The inventory remained at a low level [144]. - **Profit and Valuation**: The processing fee was slightly repaired [147]. 3.5. Ethylene Glycol Fundamentals - **Capacity and Production**: New capacity is expected to be added in 2024 and 2025. The operating rate was relatively high, and the load of syngas - based devices was at a historical high [151][154]. - **Import**: The import volume slightly declined in July, and there was no import from the US [156]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory slightly increased this week [157]. - **Cost**: Coal prices rebounded, and ethylene prices slightly increased [167]. - **Profit**: The profit of naphtha - based MEG was relatively high [170]. 3.6. Polyester and Terminal - **Polyester**: New capacity of polyester filament was put into production. The basis of staple fiber and bottle chips oscillated. The operating rate slightly decreased. The inventory pressure of filament was moderate. The profit of filament was neutral, and the profit of bottle chips and staple fiber remained stable [184][187][190]. - **Terminal**: The operating rate remained stable. Orders remained stable, inventory decreased, and raw material stocking decreased. The domestic demand growth rate of textile and clothing recovered, while exports were weak. The US clothing wholesale inventory was lower than the pre - pandemic high, and the inventory increased marginally [211][219][223].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - PTA: In the PTA market, the intraday crude oil prices were strong, and the low processing fees provided strong cost support for PTA. However, the ample PTA spot supply restricted its upward movement. Domestic PTA plants are gradually resuming operations, leading to an increase in domestic PTA production and a rapid decline in PTA basis. After the OPEC+ meeting, oil production was increased again, and the downstream profits were significantly restored, with the polyester operating load rising to 91% [2]. - MEG: In the MEG market, the spot price in Zhangjiagang decreased this week. The futures price first rose and then fell, and the spot market price followed suit. The basis negotiation declined. The basis of MEG weakened, and the upcoming commissioning of Yulong Petrochemical's MEG plant put pressure on the futures market. Although the arrival of overseas MEG plants decreased, the hedging positions increased after the price rebounded. The polyester inventory was in good condition, and the downstream weaving load increased [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Crude Oil**: The INE crude oil price increased from 488.1 yuan/barrel on September 15, 2025, to 493.6 yuan/barrel on September 16, 2025, with a change of 5.50 yuan/barrel [2]. - **PTA**: The PTA - SC spread decreased from 1124.9 yuan/ton to 1101.0 yuan/ton, the PTA/SC ratio decreased from 1.3171 to 1.3069. The CFR China PX price decreased from 836 to 834, and the PX - naphtha spread decreased from 238 to 226. The PTA主力期价 increased from 4672 yuan/ton to 4688 yuan/ton, the PTA现货价格 increased from 4600 yuan/ton to 4610 yuan/ton. The spot processing fee increased from 115.4 yuan/ton to 127.9 yuan/ton, and the disk processing fee increased from 187.4 yuan/ton to 215.9 yuan/ton. The PTA仓单数量 decreased from 9893 to 7889 [2]. - **MEG**: The MEG主力期价 decreased from 4288 yuan/ton to 4272 yuan/ton, the MEG - naphtha spread increased from -130.89 yuan/ton to -127.08 yuan/ton. The MEG内盘 increased from 4378 yuan/ton to 4385 yuan/ton, and the主力基差 decreased from 105 to 85 [2]. - **Polyester Products**: The prices of POY150D/48F, FDY150D/96F, and DTY150D/48F remained unchanged. The POY现金流 decreased from 60 to 49, the FDY现金流 decreased from -240 to -251, and the DTY现金流 decreased from 120 to 109. The长丝产销 decreased from 53% to 40%. The price of 1.4D直纺涤短 increased from 6535 to 6540, the涤短现金流 decreased from 235 to 229, and the短纤产销 increased from 50% to 65%. The price of半光切片 increased from 5750 to 5755, the切片现金流 decreased from 0 to -6, and the切片产销 increased from 80% to 120% [2]. Industry Operating Rates - The PX开工率 remained at 87.16%, the PTA开工率 remained at 78.25%, the MEG开工率 remained at 62.20%, and the聚酯负荷 remained at 88.78% [2]. Device Maintenance - A 2.5 - million - ton PTA plant in East China restarted last weekend after shutting down for maintenance around August 26 [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - PTA is expected to continue its weak oscillatory pattern in the short - term. Although the cost side provides some support and there is a mild recovery during the "Golden September and Silver October" season, with an expected increase in domestic supply, the balance sheet may shift from destocking to stockpiling. Also, the processing fee is at a low level [6]. - MEG is expected to operate weakly in the short - term. It is in a destocking cycle, but the total supply is expected to increase due to new device commissioning, and the demand side shows a slow increase in polyester load. Attention should be paid to the lower support level [6]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Upstream Industry Chain Analysis - **Market Review**: Geopolitical instability supports oil prices, but OPEC+ may increase production in October, and demand has a seasonal decline. Thus, international oil prices are expected to face pressure next week. PX supply - demand is weak due to the previous unexpected shutdown of downstream PTA devices. As of September 12, the Asian PX closing price was $831.33 per ton CFR China, up $1.33 per ton from September 5 [16]. - **PX Capacity Utilization**: There was no device change this week, and production was stable. The domestic PX weekly average capacity utilization was 84.63%, with a 0% week - on - week change. The Asian PX weekly average capacity utilization was 74.71%, up 0.27% week - on - week [19]. - **PX - Naphtha Price Spread**: As of September 12, the PX - naphtha price spread was $232.8 per ton, down $0.92 per ton from September 5. With the increase in downstream PTA operating rate, PX is entering a destocking phase, and the PX - naphtha price spread is expected to rebound [22]. 3.2 PTA Fundamental Analysis - **Market Review**: With the restart of previously overhauled PTA devices and mediocre terminal orders during the traditional peak season, the PTA balance sheet is still destocking. However, due to overall poor commodity performance and concerns about future supply increases, PTA oscillated narrowly this week. As of September 12, the PTA spot price was 4,565 yuan per ton, and the spot basis was 2601 - 79 [25]. - **Capacity Utilization**: The weekly average PTA capacity utilization reached 74.95%, up 4.30% week - on - week and down 6.33% year - on - year. The restart of previously overhauled devices led to an increase in capacity utilization. In September, with the planned and expected restart of multiple devices, the domestic PTA device capacity utilization is expected to reach around 78% [28]. - **Processing Fee**: The PTA processing fee has weakened again due to increased domestic supply and slow terminal recovery. However, with a low valuation, the further downward space is limited, and it is expected to continue its weak pattern in the short - term [30]. - **Supply - Demand in September**: In September, with insufficient PTA device overhauls and the restart of overhauled devices, and little change in demand, PTA supply - demand is expected to shift from destocking to a loose balance [33]. 3.3 MEG Fundamental Analysis - **Market Trend**: The supply - demand structure of ethylene glycol has no obvious change, and the main port inventory has reached a new low this year. However, due to new capacity commissioning and high domestic operating rates, the price decline has widened, once breaking through the 4,400 - yuan integer mark. As of September 12, the closing price of ethylene glycol in Zhangjiagang was 4,378 yuan per ton, and the delivered price in the South China market was 4,460 yuan per ton [38]. - **Domestic Production**: The total ethylene glycol capacity utilization was 66.55%, down 0.90% week - on - week. The integrated device capacity utilization was 66.92%, up 0.09% week - on - week, and the coal - based ethylene glycol capacity utilization was 65.96%, down 2.47% week - on - week. In September, with the restart of some domestic existing devices and the end of the overhaul season, the overall ethylene glycol production is expected to continue to rise [42]. - **Port Inventory**: As of September 18, 2025, the total expected arrival volume of ethylene glycol in East China was 11.28 tons. As of September 11, the total port inventory of MEG in the East China main port area was 36.32 tons, down 2.36 tons from September 8 and 1.31 tons from September 4 [43]. - **Processing Profit**: With the ethylene glycol main port inventory remaining at a low level, but new device commissioning and a pessimistic supply outlook, the ethylene glycol price declined this week. With raw material prices showing different trends, the sample profits of each ethylene glycol process showed both increases and decreases. As of September 12, the profit of naphtha - based ethylene glycol was - $102.41 per ton, down $3.99 per ton from last week, and the profit of coal - based ethylene glycol was - 53.39 yuan per ton, up 3.31 yuan per ton from last week [48]. 3.4 Downstream Demand Analysis of the Industry Chain - **Polyester Production**: The weekly average polyester capacity utilization was 87.9%, up 0.56% week - on - week. There is no clear expected change in polyester device supply next week, and domestic polyester production is expected to remain stable [51]. - **Capacity Utilization Expectation**: In August, the polyester operating rate fluctuated narrowly. In September, due to the expectation of the traditional peak season, the planned restart of some previously reduced - production and overhauled devices, and the expected commissioning of multiple new devices, the monthly polyester load is expected to increase [54]. - **Capacity Utilization of Polyester Filament**: This week, the weekly average capacity utilization of polyester filament was 91.43%, up 0.15% from the previous period. The average capacity utilization of polyester staple fiber was stable at 86.82%, up 0.37% week - on - week. The capacity utilization of fiber - grade polyester chips was 81.99%, up 1.57% week - on - week [57]. - **Product Inventory**: Downstream procurement is cautious, and the overall sales level is average. The finished product inventory of polyester filament factories has slightly accumulated this week [60]. - **Cash Flow of Polyester Products**: With the decrease in polymerization cost, the transaction center of polyester products has also decreased, but the decline is smaller than that of raw materials, resulting in a partial repair of cash flow [62]. - **Weaving Load**: As of September 11, the comprehensive operating rate of chemical fiber weaving in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 62.42%, the same as the previous data. The average terminal weaving order days were 14.55 days, an increase of 0.66 days from last week. Order recovery is less than expected, and the weaving load is expected to remain stable [67]. 3.5 Summary of Polyester Industry Chain Fundamentals - **Cost Side**: Geopolitical instability supports oil prices, but OPEC+ may increase production in October, and demand has a seasonal decline. International oil prices are expected to face pressure next week. PX supply - demand is weak due to the previous unexpected shutdown of downstream PTA devices [68]. - **Supply Side**: PTA capacity utilization has increased this week. MEG total capacity utilization has decreased slightly, with a slight increase in integrated device capacity utilization and a decrease in coal - based capacity utilization [68]. - **Demand Side**: Polyester capacity utilization has increased, and the chemical fiber weaving operating rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions has remained the same. Order recovery is less than expected, and the overall market is in a wait - and - see state [68]. - **Inventory**: PTA has a strong expectation of future supply - demand stockpiling. MEG port inventory in the East China main port area has decreased [68].