Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The PTA market is affected by geopolitical issues, with rising crude oil prices providing cost support and driving up the PTA market. However, the supply - chain chaos and raw material bottlenecks limit the further production increase of polyester and may even lead to temporary production cuts. The Asian polyester industry chain may face a severe production decline risk in April due to the shortage of PX and MEG. The MEG market is also in a state of chaos due to the tense situation in the Middle East, with Northeast Asian refineries facing crude oil supply shortages and domestic refineries' ethylene glycol production being affected by raw material reduction [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data - **Crude Oil and PTA - SC**: INE crude oil price rose from 723.9 yuan/barrel on March 25, 2026, to 733.1 yuan/barrel on March 26, 2026, with a change of 9.20 yuan/barrel. PTA - SC increased from 1331.3 yuan/ton to 1450.5 yuan/ton, a change of 119.14 yuan/ton. The PTA/SC ratio increased from 1.2531 to 1.2723, a change of 0.0192 [2] - **PX**: CFR China PX increased from 1208 to 1233, with a change of 25. The PX - naphtha spread increased from 120 to 235, a change of 116 [2] - **PTA**: The PTA main contract futures price increased from 6592 yuan/ton to 6778 yuan/ton, a change of 186.0 yuan/ton. The PTA spot price increased from 6470 to 6570, a change of 100.0 yuan/ton. The spot processing fee decreased from 205.4 yuan/ton to 141.9 yuan/ton, a change of - 63.6 yuan/ton. The disk processing fee increased from 307.4 yuan/ton to 349.9 yuan/ton, a change of 42.4 yuan/ton. The main contract basis decreased from (68) to (70), a change of - 2.0. The PTA warehouse receipt quantity increased from 148915 to 149479, a change of 564 [2] - **MEG**: The MEG main contract futures price increased from 5036 yuan/ton to 5058 yuan/ton, a change of 22.0 yuan/ton. MEG - naphtha changed from (353.18) to (353.37), a change of - 0.2. The MEG domestic price increased from 4946 to 4982, a change of 36.0. The main contract basis increased from - 60 to - 35, a change of 25.0 [2] 2. Industry Chain Start - up Situation - PX start - up rate remained at 83.53%, PTA start - up rate remained at 80.01%, MEG start - up rate remained at 52.27%, and polyester load remained at 85.41% [2] 3. Product Price and Cash Flow - **Polyester Filament**: POY150D/48F decreased from 9075 to 9050, a change of - 25.0. POY cash flow decreased from 636 to 514, a change of - 122.0. FDY150D/96F remained at 9330. FDY cash flow decreased from 391 to 294, a change of - 97.0. DTY150D/48F decreased from 10455 to 10390, a change of - 65.0. DTY cash flow decreased from 816 to 654, a change of - 162.0. The long - filament production and sales rate decreased from 30% to 19%, a change of - 11% [2] - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber increased from 8060 to 8245, a change of 185. The polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from (29) to 59, a change of 88.0. The staple fiber production and sales rate decreased from 78% to 55%, a change of - 23% [2] - **Polyester Chip**: The semi - bright chip increased from 7410 to 7550, a change of 140.0. The chip cash flow increased from (129) to (86), a change of 43.0. The chip production and sales rate increased from 26% to 30%, a change of 4% [2] 4. Device Maintenance - A 2.5 - million - ton PTA device in East China that was shut down for maintenance around February 10 has returned to normal. A 3.6 - million - ton PTA device in East China that was operating at 50% capacity has returned to normal. A 1.25 - million - ton PTA device in South China that was under maintenance in mid - January has returned to normal [4]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The PTA market in Asia is affected by the sharp fluctuations in crude oil and the tightening of PX supply. The price increase of naphtha is much higher than that of PX, resulting in a significant contraction of profits. The supply - side risks have increased significantly. If Middle - East exports cannot recover in the near future, the Asian polyester industry chain will face a severe production decline risk in April due to the dual shortage of PX and MEG [2]. - The MEG market is also in chaos due to the tense situation in the Middle East. Northeast Asian refineries are facing a shortage of crude oil supply and have to reduce their loads. The shortage of Asian naphtha has led to large - scale production cuts and shutdowns of naphtha cracking units [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data Changes - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil price dropped from 834.6 yuan/barrel on March 23, 2026, to 739.1 yuan/barrel on March 24, 2026, a decrease of 95.50 yuan/barrel [2]. - **PTA**: PTA - SC increased by 254.01 yuan/ton, PTA/SC ratio increased by 0.0701, PTA主力期价 dropped by 440.0 yuan/ton, PTA现货价格 dropped by 280.0 yuan/ton, spot processing fee and disk processing fee both decreased by 40.0 yuan/ton, and PTA仓单数量 increased by 1785 [2]. - **MEG**: MEG主力期价 dropped by 455.0 yuan/ton, MEG - naphtha decreased by 39.2 yuan/ton, MEG内盘 dropped by 255.0 yuan/ton, and the main base difference decreased by 10.0 [2]. - **PX**: CFR中国PX dropped by 75, and PX - naphtha spread decreased by 124 [2]. - **Polyester Products** - **Polyester Filament**: POY150D/48F increased by 35.0, POY现金流 increased by 359.0; FDY150D/96F increased by 65.0, FDY现金流 increased by 389.0; DTY150D/48F remained unchanged, DTY现金流 increased by 324.0; long - filament production and sales decreased by 41% [2]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: 1.4D直纺涤短 dropped by 105,涤短现金流 increased by 219.0, and short - fiber production and sales decreased by 4% [2]. - **Polyester Chips**: 半光切片 dropped by 110.0,切片现金流 increased by 214.0, and slice production and sales decreased by 7% [2]. 3.2 Industry Start - up Situation - PX start - up rate increased by 3.19% to 83.53% [2]. - PTA start - up rate increased by 0.50% to 80.01% [2]. - MEG start - up rate remained unchanged at 51.87% [2]. - Polyester load remained unchanged at 85.44% [2]. 3.3 Device Maintenance Status - A 2.5 million - ton PTA device in East China, which was shut down for maintenance around February 10, has returned to normal operation. A 3.6 million - ton PTA device in East China, which was operating at 50% capacity, has also returned to normal operation. A 1.25 million - ton PTA device in South China, which was under maintenance in mid - January, has resumed normal operation [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PTA: The contradictions mainly lie in the cost of crude oil and PX. In Q2, the supply - demand contradictions of PTA itself are average. The supply maintenance is not high, and the demand recovers limitedly under high raw material prices, maintaining a tight - to - loose balance. With the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East, crude oil and PX remain strong. Adopt a bullish approach after corrections and focus on the opportunity of the far - month spread strengthening [4]. - PX: Geopolitical factors lead to a reduction in the load of Asian refineries. There is no new domestic supply of PX. With refinery load reduction and spring maintenance, the import from Northeast Asian refineries is expected to decline. The demand from PTA production is not low. The balance of PX has improved since March, and inventory is expected to continue to decline in Q2. The supply - demand pattern of PX is strong, and a bullish approach is recommended [5]. - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): The supply contraction in Q2 is obvious. With the reduction of domestic oil - based production, a decline in imports, and an increase in exports to Asia, the balance has improved since March. Inventory reduction is expected to be significant from April to May. It remains strong in the short - term. Pay attention to the bullish opportunities and the possibility of the far - month spread strengthening [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Geopolitical Impact on Demand - The impact of geopolitics on demand is slightly negative. The recovery after the Spring Festival is average, and geopolitics may suppress demand. The textile and clothing domestic demand is relatively stable, but textile enterprises have insufficient profitability, and the offline market still faces pressure. In 2025, China's textile and clothing exports declined slightly year - on - year, but there was an improvement in 2026. After the Lantern Festival in 2026, the downstream recovery was less than expected, and the terminal orders were unclear due to high raw material prices [12][21][25][34]. 3.2 PTA - **Production and Supply**: In 2026, there is little PTA production planning. There is no new domestic production capacity, and the production capacity in India may be postponed. The overall maintenance volume in Q1 is not high, with a production growth rate of about 4.8%. In Q2, the planned maintenance may increase, and the production growth rate in the first half of the year is 4.7%. The export is expected to remain stable, with an estimated monthly export of about 330,000 tons in the first half of 2026 [53][60][64]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: In Q1, there is a seasonal inventory accumulation. In Q2, if the planned maintenance is implemented, a slight inventory reduction is expected. If the geopolitical situation escalates, the raw material shortage may increase, and the inventory reduction in Q2 may also increase. Currently, the PTA spot basis is weak, and the near - term spread may weaken, while the far - month spread may strengthen [74][77]. 3.3 PX - **Production and Supply**: In 2026, there are few PX production plans. There is no new production capacity in the first half of the year, and Huajin's 2 million - ton production capacity is relatively certain in the second half. The second quarter is the period of concentrated seasonal maintenance in Asia. Due to geopolitical factors, many domestic and Asian refineries have implemented preventive load reduction. The domestic PX production remains stable in the first quarter and slightly decreases in the second quarter. The import in Q1 increases, but may decline in Q2 [82][86][96]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The inventory accumulation pressure is high in January - February. Since March, the supply has shrunk significantly, and the inventory is expected to continue to decline from March to August. The supply - demand pattern of PX in Q2 is strong, but the high - level volatility increases [109]. 3.4 PTA Chain Profit Distribution and Valuation - After the geopolitical conflict, the PTA - Brent oil price spread has increased. The industrial chain profit is mainly concentrated in naphtha cracking, and the PXN and PTA processing fees are compressed. In Q2, the industrial chain profit is still expected to be concentrated in the upstream. The PTA industrial chain valuation is mainly affected by crude oil and the upstream naphtha industrial chain profit. The profit center is expected to rise compared with Q1 [112][119]. 3.5 MEG - **Production and Supply**: In 2026, the MEG production capacity is concentrated at the beginning and end of the year, with no new production in Q2. After the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, the domestic refineries have reduced their loads, and the oil - based MEG maintenance and load reduction have increased. The coal - based MEG has some spring maintenance, but due to good benefits, some maintenance may be postponed. The overseas MEG maintenance is at a high level, and the import is expected to decline significantly from March to April, with a possible continuation in April - May [129][132][141]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The inventory at the port is still at a high level as of March 23. Considering the shipping schedule, the arrival of goods may decline after late March. With the recent increase in exports, the inventory reduction at the port from April to May may be obvious. The supply - demand situation of MEG in Q2 remains strong, and a bullish approach can be considered after corrections, while also paying attention to the possibility of the far - month spread strengthening [147][158].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report PTA - The core influence recently is geopolitics. Attention should be paid to the impact and persistence of the Strait logistics. In the short - term, it follows the cost. The supply and demand of PTA change little, with an increase in supply restart, and the supply - demand side has limited driving force. With the tightening of crude oil supply and refinery load reduction, the cost support is strong, and the price is expected to be strong [5]. PX - Geopolitics affects the domestic supply and import expectations of PX to decline. The demand improves from March, and the balance expectation gradually improves. In the short - term, attention should be paid to the persistence of geopolitical risks, and consider positive spreads on pullbacks [6]. Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - Geopolitics supports a possible decline in ethylene glycol imports. The load reduction of domestic ethylene - based plants increases, and the supply improves. The current inventory of ethylene glycol is high. It is expected that domestic maintenance will increase and imports will improve significantly. Consider low - buying after short - term pullbacks or focus on positive spreads [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Downstream Demand - As of March 5, downstream weaving is gradually resuming work. The loads of texturing, looms, and dyeing have rebounded to 62%, 58%, and 69% respectively. With the rise of raw materials, downstream stocking has increased, and the overall stocking is about 20 days [11]. - As of March 6, the polyester load is around 84.1%. The polyester cash - flow has recovered, and the inventory has slightly decreased. The future start - up assessment shows that after the Spring Festival, polyester factories are gradually restarting. The loads in February and March are estimated to be 79% and 90% respectively. The subsequent recovery rhythm depends on the progress of large filament manufacturers [14][39]. PTA - **Device Changes**: Domestic devices are operating as planned. New materials are running at full capacity. Dushan's 2.5 million - ton and Ineos' 1.25 million - ton devices have restarted. Fuhai Chuang's 4.5 million - ton device has increased its load to 80%, and Yihua's 3 million - ton device is under maintenance [44]. - **Inventory**: As of March 6, the social inventory of PTA (excluding credit warehouse receipts) has increased to 2.623 million tons, an increase of 28,000 tons. PTA factory inventory has increased, and the inventory of downstream polyester factories is not high [48]. - **Balance Sheet**: In March, the supply restarts and the demand is recovering. The supply - demand balance is loose, and the supply - demand side of PTA has general driving force. Attention should be paid to changes in crude oil and geopolitics [53]. PX - **Market Situation**: The US gasoline inventory has slightly declined from a high level. Geopolitics has affected the Asian refined - oil supply, and the gasoline cracking spread has strengthened. The Asian aromatics is in short supply due to geopolitics, and the US - Asia arbitrage spread has compressed [69][75]. - **Device Changes**: As of March 5, the domestic PX load has dropped to 90.4%, and the Asian PX load remains at 83.2%. Some domestic refineries have reduced their loads preventively. Overseas, some devices are under maintenance or have announced force majeure [80]. - **Balance Sheet**: The domestic refineries are reducing their loads, and the import is expected to decline. The demand is gradually improving, and the balance has been gradually improving since March. Pay attention to geopolitical changes and consider low - buying and positive spreads on pullbacks [83]. Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Device Changes**: Since March, the maintenance of ethylene - based devices has increased. Some coal - chemical devices are restarting or delaying maintenance. Overseas, some devices are under maintenance or have reduced their loads [100][113]. - **Inventory**: As of March 9, the inventory at the main ports in East China is about 1.068 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 66,000 tons. The expected arrival volume is not high, and the inventory may remain stable or decline next week [122]. - **Balance Sheet**: The port inventory is at a high level. Since March, the maintenance has increased, and the expected arrival volume has declined. The balance has improved, and it is expected to be strong in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the persistence of geopolitics [127].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to concerns about the stable supply of upstream raw materials, some domestic refineries have taken preventive load - reduction measures, and subsequent South Korean refineries may also reduce their loads. The PX maintenance season is about to start, and the PTA enterprises may be forced to cut production. The overall driving force of the aromatic hydrocarbon sector is upward [8][14]. - An Iranian ethylene glycol plant has shut down, and the shipment plan of another plant has been cancelled. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will affect Middle - East imported goods. The domestic ethylene glycol supply has decreased significantly, and the supply - demand structure has improved month - on - month. It will enter a destocking pattern in the second quarter [8][26]. - The polyester load has increased seasonally. The start - up rate of terminals in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has rebounded, and the short - fiber supply - demand situation in March is favorable [8][33]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **PX & TA**: Affected by concerns about upstream raw material supply, some domestic refineries have reduced their loads preventively. An East China refinery's 3.8 - million - ton reforming unit has shut down for maintenance. South Korean refineries may also reduce their loads. The PX maintenance season is coming, and PTA enterprises may be forced to cut production. The trading strategies are preventive load - reduction for unilateral trading, positive arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [8]. - **MEG**: An Iranian 450,000 - ton ethylene glycol plant has shut down, and the March shipment plan of another 400,000 - ton/year plant has been cancelled. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will affect imports. Domestic supply - side plants are under maintenance, and the supply - demand structure has improved. The trading strategies are a bullish trend for unilateral trading, positive arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [8]. - **PF**: As of Thursday, the domestic polyester load is around 87.2%. The start - up of terminals in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has increased. The short - fiber supply - demand situation in March is favorable, but the inventory has increased significantly. Some short - fiber plants will have maintenance in March. The trading strategies are following the cost - side strength for unilateral trading, positive arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [8]. - **PR**: A 750,000 - ton device of Sanfangxiang will restart in mid - March, and a 1.2 - million - ton polyester bottle - chip device of Huarun Jiangyin Factory has restarted in early March. The bottle - chip load will continue to rise. The supply - demand situation has limited impact on the market, and it mainly follows the cost - side strength. The trading strategies are following the cost - side strength for unilateral trading, positive arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [8]. 3.2 Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - **PX**: Concerns about refinery raw materials have led to preventive load - reduction of PX, affecting the supply of aromatic hydrocarbon varieties. The current domestic and Asian PX loads are at high levels in recent years. The PX maintenance season is about to start, and the supply - demand pattern will gradually destock [14][19]. - **PTA**: Some PTA devices have restarted, and some have shut down. The market expects an unexpected reduction in PX supply, and PTA enterprises may be forced to cut production. The cost - driven PX is stronger than TA, and the processing margin has decreased compared with February. The spot basis and the 5 - 9 month spread of PTA have strengthened [21][25]. - **MEG**: An Iranian ethylene glycol plant has shut down, and the shipment plan of another plant has been cancelled. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will affect imports. Domestic supply - side plants are under maintenance, and the overall domestic ethylene glycol start - up load has decreased. The spot basis has weakened significantly, and the 5 - 9 month spread has strengthened. The supply - demand structure has improved, and it will enter a destocking pattern in the second quarter [26][31]. - **Polyester**: The polyester load has increased seasonally. As of Friday, the domestic polyester load is around 86.7%. The start - up rate of terminals in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has rebounded, with the comprehensive start - up of Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing reaching 74%, the comprehensive start - up of looms reaching 64%, and the comprehensive start - up of printing and dyeing reaching 77% [36][37]. 3.3 Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - **PX**: The report provides data on PX price spreads, US gasoline and crude oil inventories, and PX supply and demand, including PX CFR in China, PXN, PX - MX, US gasoline and crude oil inventories, and domestic and Asian PX loads [46][49][52]. - **PTA**: It includes data on PTA price and profit, such as PTA spot price, profit, 05 basis, and 5 - 9 month spread, as well as PTA supply and demand data, including PTA load index, polyester load, and PTA inventory [56][59][62]. - **MEG**: It provides data on MEG price, such as the market price in East China, coal price in Ordos, methanol ex - tank price in East China, and Northeast Asian ethylene price, as well as MEG profit data, including oil - based profit, MTO profit, ethylene monomer profit, and coal - based profit [67][75]. - **Polyester**: It includes data on polyester profit, such as POY, DTY, FDY, bottle - chip, and short - fiber profits, as well as polyester supply data, including polyester load, bottle - chip load, filament load, short - fiber load, filament average inventory days, short - fiber inventory days, and the start - up rates of looms and texturing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang [78][81][83].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The logic of raw material shortage continues to ferment, and prices in the polyester industry follow the upward trend of costs. Currently, the shortage of raw materials is the dominant factor, and prices are expected to rise further, but short - term over - increase requires attention to risks [11][12][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation PX - **Price Performance**: The 05 contract rose 1,348 yuan last week to 10,018 yuan. The spot CFR China price rose 250 US dollars to 1,305 US dollars. The spot conversion basis rose 193 yuan, reaching 107 yuan as of March 13. The 5 - 7 spread rose 114 yuan, reaching 366 yuan as of March 13 [11]. - **Supply**: The Chinese load was 84.7%, a 5.7% week - on - week decrease; the Asian load was 76.9%, a 6.3% week - on - week decrease. Many domestic and overseas devices reduced their loads. In March, it entered the maintenance season, and due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, there was a large gap in Asian crude oil and naphtha, with the load expected to decline significantly [11]. - **Demand**: The PTA load was 77.3%, a 3.7% week - on - week decrease. Some PTA devices unexpectedly stopped or reduced their loads, but the expected impact time was short [11]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory at the end of January was 4.64 million tons, with a de - stocking of 10,000 tons month - on - month. In February, it was expected to continue to accumulate inventory, and in March, it was expected to turn into a de - stocking pattern [11]. - **Valuation and Cost**: As of March 12, PXN was 328 US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 47 US dollars; the naphtha spread rose 75 US dollars to 231 US dollars, and crude oil prices rose significantly [11]. - **Summary**: PXN rose last week. Due to the expected raw material gap, the Asian load continued to decline, supply tightened, and naphtha spreads and crude oil costs rapidly pushed up prices. Currently, the PX load is expected to further decline to a low level, while the short - term maintenance expectation of downstream PTA is low, and the overall load center rises. In March, PX gradually enters the de - stocking cycle. The valuation is currently moderately low, and the inventory is expected to decline significantly [11]. PTA - **Price Performance**: The 05 contract rose 864 yuan last week to 6,934 yuan. The spot price in East China rose 1,230 yuan to 7,030 yuan. The spot basis rose 9 yuan, reaching - 28 yuan as of March 13. The 5 - 9 spread rose 88 yuan, reaching 288 yuan as of March 13 [12]. - **Supply**: The PTA load was 77.3%, a 3.7% week - on - week decrease. Some PTA devices unexpectedly stopped or reduced their loads, but the expected impact time was short [12]. - **Demand**: The polyester load was 86.7%, a 2.6% week - on - week increase. The terminal's finished product inventory decreased, and orders increased. However, the overall polyester load is expected to decrease due to the rapid increase in raw material prices [12]. - **Inventory**: As of March 6, the overall social inventory of PTA (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 2.623 million tons, with a week - on - week inventory accumulation of 26,000 tons. The polyester load is expected to be limited, and the PTA load is expected to be high, so the subsequent inventory is expected to remain in a relatively loose balance [12]. - **Profit**: The spot processing fee decreased by 70 yuan to 226 yuan/ton as of March 12; the disk processing fee decreased by 51 yuan to 295 yuan/ton [12]. - **Summary**: The PTA processing fee was slightly compressed last week. The PTA pattern continued to accumulate inventory, and the price increase was weaker than that of raw materials, resulting in a passive compression of valuation. In the future, as the maintenance expectation decreases, PTA is difficult to enter the de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is expected to remain difficult to rise [12]. MEG - **Price Performance**: The 05 contract rose 352 yuan last week to 4,729 yuan. The spot price in East China rose 583 yuan to 4,715 yuan. The basis decreased by 71 yuan, reaching - 82 yuan as of March 13. The 5 - 9 spread rose 5 yuan, reaching 65 yuan as of March 13 [13]. - **Supply**: The EG load was 66.8%, a 5.7% week - on - week decrease. Many domestic and overseas devices reduced their loads. The expected arrival volume last week was 78,000 tons, and the import volume in December was 840,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 260,000 tons [13]. - **Demand**: The polyester load was 86.7%, a 2.6% week - on - week increase. The terminal's finished product inventory decreased, and orders increased. However, the overall polyester load is expected to decrease due to the rapid increase in raw material prices [13]. - **Inventory**: As of March 9, the port inventory was 1.068 million tons, with a week - on - week inventory accumulation of 66,000 tons; the downstream factory inventory days were 15.1 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.4 days. In the short term, the arrival volume is expected to decrease, and the departure volume is expected to increase, and the port inventory is expected to be de - stocked. Overseas, due to load reduction and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, China's imports are expected to decline significantly, and the ethylene - based load in China is expected to decline significantly, turning into a de - stocking pattern [13]. - **Valuation and Cost**: The naphtha - based profit decreased by 693 yuan to - 2,488 yuan/ton, the domestic ethylene - based profit decreased by 128 yuan to - 1,047 yuan/ton, and the coal - based profit increased to 661 yuan/ton. The cost of ethylene was 1,000 US dollars/ton, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal fines was 580 yuan/ton. The coal cost decreased, and ethylene prices rose significantly. The current overall valuation is at a historical low [13]. - **Summary**: In terms of industry fundamentals, the number of overseas device overhauls has increased significantly, and China is gradually entering the maintenance season. Due to the lack of Middle - East crude oil, the load is expected to continue to decline, and imports are expected to decline significantly starting from March. The downstream is gradually recovering from the off - season, and the port inventory will gradually turn into a de - stocking pattern. The current valuation of oil - chemical profits has dropped to a historical low level. There is an expectation of significant import contraction driving de - stocking, and there is a large expectation of further production cuts in the oil - chemical industry [13]. 3.2. Spot and Futures Market - **PX**: The term structure, CFR China price, basis, and spreads are presented through multiple charts. The trading volume and open interest of active contracts and total contracts are also shown [30][33][34]. - **PTA**: The term structure, East China market price, basis, and spreads are presented through multiple charts. The trading volume and open interest of active contracts and total contracts are also shown [38][42][45]. - **MEG**: The term structure, East China market price, basis, and spreads are presented through multiple charts. The trading volume and open interest of active contracts and total contracts are also shown [48][58][61]. - **Overseas Commodity Prices**: The overseas prices of PX, MEG, and PTA FOB China are presented through charts [64]. 3.3. PX Fundamentals - **New Capacity**: Domestic new capacities include Fuxia Dahua (technical transformation) with 300,000 tons in early 2026, Huajin Aramco with 2 million tons in Q3 2026, and Yantai Yulongdao with 3 million tons from the end of 2026 to 2027. Overseas, IOC in India will have 800,000 tons in H2 2026 [68]. - **Supply**: The Chinese and Asian PX operating rates have decreased significantly. Many devices at home and abroad have reduced their loads [71]. - **Import**: The import volume in December increased significantly. The import volumes from South Korea, Japan, and Chinese Taipei are presented through charts [74][75]. - **Inventory**: The social total inventory and warehouse receipts are presented through charts [77]. - **Cost and Profit**: PXN fluctuated upward, short - process profits declined, and the naphtha spread soared. The relevant data of aromatics blending for oil, such as octane value, aromatics spreads, and blending relative value, are also presented through charts [79][86][95]. 3.4. PTA Fundamentals - **New Capacity**: In 2025, Honggang Petrochemical (Phase III), Hailun Petrochemical 3, and Dushan Energy 4 added new capacities. In 2026, India Oil and GAIL in India will add new capacities [118]. - **Supply**: The PTA load decreased slightly. Some devices unexpectedly stopped or reduced their loads [121]. - **Export**: The total export volume and exports to India, Turkey, and Vietnam are presented through charts [124]. - **Inventory**: The inventory continued to accumulate. The terminal inventory, in - plant inventory available days, and total warehouse receipts are presented through charts [126][127]. - **Profit**: The spot and disk processing fees decreased, and the acetic acid cost is presented through charts [128]. 3.5. MEG Fundamentals - **New Capacity**: In 2025, Zhengda Kai Phase I, Yulong Petrochemical 1, and Yichang (Kunpeng Phase I) added new capacities. In 2026, BASF, Tianying, Huajin Aramco, and Zhongsha Gulei will add new capacities [131]. - **Supply**: The MEG operating rate decreased. The operating rates of synthetic gas - based and ethylene - based production are presented through charts [134]. - **Import**: The import volume in December increased significantly. The import volumes from Canada, Saudi Arabia, and the United States are presented through charts [135][137][142]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory continued to accumulate this week (the statistical caliber changed). The port inventory, polyester factory EG inventory, factory inventory, and registered warehouse receipts are presented through charts [145][146]. - **Cost**: Coal prices fluctuated, ethylene prices rebounded significantly, and ethane prices rebounded. The relevant prices are presented through charts [152][153]. - **Profit**: The valuation is at a historical low. The profits of naphtha - based, ethylene - based, coal - based production, and import ethane production are presented through charts [154][158][160]. 3.6. Polyester and Terminal - **Polyester New Capacity**: Many polyester companies have new capacity plans in 2026, including polyester filament, polyester staple fiber, polyester chips, and polyester bottle chips [170][171]. - **Polyester Supply**: The operating rate seasonally rebounded. The downstream proportion and operating rates of polyester, polyester filament, polyester staple fiber, and polyester bottle chips are presented through charts [173][177]. - **Polyester Export**: The export data in December increased both year - on - year and month - on - month. The export volumes of polyester, filament, bottle chips, and staple fiber are presented through charts [179][180]. - **Polyester Inventory**: The filament inventory increased. The inventories of POY, FDY, DTY, staple fiber, and bottle chips are presented through charts [182][183][185]. - **Polyester Profit**: The filament profit is good, the bottle chip profit increased significantly, and the staple fiber profit fluctuated. The relevant profit data are presented through charts [192][195]. - **Terminal**: The operating rate rebounded. The operating rates of looms, texturing machines, polyester yarn, and printing and dyeing are presented through charts [197][198][199]. - **Terminal Orders and Inventory**: Orders increased, inventory decreased, and raw material inventory increased. The relevant data are presented through charts [203][204]. - **Terminal Light Textile City**: The weekly average trading volume increased [206]. - **Terminal Textile and Apparel and Soft Drinks**: The growth rate of domestic demand for textile and apparel decreased, and exports were weak. The relevant data are presented through charts [208][209]. - **Terminal US Apparel Inventory**: The wholesale inventory is lower than the pre - pandemic high. The relevant data are presented through charts [211][212][213].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On March 10, the main contracts of PX, PTA, PF, PR, and MEG in the polyester industry chain fluctuated significantly, first dropping sharply and then rebounding with narrower declines. The main reasons were Trump's statement that the war was basically over and the G7's plan to jointly release crude oil reserves, which led to a significant adjustment in crude oil prices. However, releasing strategic reserves can only slow down the rise of crude oil prices, and the fundamental issue lies in the passage situation of the Strait of Hormuz. The war has not completely ended, and the Strait of Hormuz has not resumed normal navigation, so there is a need to be vigilant about the risk of repeated fluctuations in the market [1]. - In terms of fundamentals, due to the excessive market fluctuations recently, spot market transactions are still scarce, and the market is currently in a wait - and - see mood. Some factories still maintain a closed - market or suspended - shipment status, and there are still supply risks and hoarding phenomena. The market also shows differentiation due to the fundamentals and inventory conditions of each variety. If the cost - side prices remain high, attention should be paid to the possible negative feedback effects such as production cuts in the downstream [1]. - The market focus recently has been on the Iranian situation. Under the tense situation, crude oil prices have risen. In the PX market, the PXN was $355/ton (a month - on - month increase of $51.88/ton). Affected by the Iranian situation, the Strait of Hormuz traffic is still low. Under the concern of supply interruption, the PX spot structure has changed to a Back structure, and the floating price has become stronger. The PTA operating rate has increased, and the polyester load is being restored, so the demand for PX has further increased. At the same time, the PX supply problem has further intensified, and the PX load has decreased, with a larger inventory reduction [2]. - In the TA market, the PTA spot basis is - 15 yuan/ton (a month - on - month change of +0 yuan/ton), the PTA spot processing fee is 178 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 7 yuan/ton), and the main contract's processing fee on the disk is 360 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 33 yuan/ton). The weaving and polyester loads are slowly recovering from a low level. After the centralized restart of PTA devices, the inventory reduction rhythm has been postponed, and inventory has continued to accumulate in March. However, supported by costs, the PTA trend is strong, and the processing fee has been compressed. Currently, the PTA basis is also rebounding, and the futures and spot markets are rising in resonance. In the long - term, as the cycle of concentrated capacity release ends, the PTA processing fee is expected to gradually improve, and the long - term outlook is still good [2]. - In terms of demand, the polyester operating rate is 84.1% (a month - on - month increase of 4.6%). After the Spring Festival, the polyester and weaving loads have been gradually recovering. The continuous rise in raw material prices recently has also driven some speculative demand and inventory reduction. The inventory pressure of polyester products is not large, and the short - term price increase is relatively healthy. Currently, the inventories of domestic and foreign textile and clothing are not high. Attention should be paid to the downstream restocking actions and the situation of textile and clothing export orders. After the digestion of the existing raw material inventory, it may also have a negative feedback effect on the downstream operating rate [3]. - In the PF market, the spot production profit is 168 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 375 yuan/ton). The Middle East conflict has led to a sharp rise in oil prices, and the raw material prices have continued to soar. Direct - spun polyester staple fibers have quickly followed the price increase, but the increase is less than that of raw materials, and the processing margin of direct - spun polyester staple fibers has been compressed. The operating load of direct - spun polyester staple fibers is increasing. In the early stage of the price increase of staple fibers, the sales were active, and downstream customers stocked up intensively, and the factory inventory decreased. However, in the later stage, as the price reached a high level, the market entered a wait - and - see state [3]. - In the PR market, the bottle - chip spot processing fee is 622 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 173 yuan/ton). The price of polyester bottle - chips has risen significantly following the raw materials. In terms of fundamentals, after the Spring Festival, polyester bottle - chip devices have been restarted one after another, and the overall supply has increased slightly. The bottle - chip factories' shipments are relatively concentrated, and the inventory has decreased significantly. In the short term, the bottle - chip price increase is smooth, and the processing fee is expected to remain strong. Attention should be paid to the transaction situation after the continuous price increase [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Price and Basis - The report includes figures such as the TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trend; PX main contract trend, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural - white basis [9][10][13] Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures cover PX processing fee PXN (PX China CFR - naphtha Japan CFR), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [19][23] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Figures include toluene US - Asia spread (FOB US Gulf - FOB South Korea), toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [25][27] Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures show the operating rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the operating rates of PX in China and Asia [28][31][33] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures display the weekly social inventory of PTA, monthly social inventory of PX, total PTA warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [39][41][42] Downstream Polyester Load - Figures include the production and sales of filaments and short - fibers, polyester load, direct - spun filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament DTY factory inventory days, filament FDY factory inventory days, filament POY factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom operating rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machine operating rate, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang printing and dyeing operating rate [49][51][59] PF Detailed Data - Figures cover 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, original - recycled spread (1.4D polyester staple - 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber), pure polyester yarn operating rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn operating rate, polyester - cotton yarn processing fee, pure polyester yarn factory inventory available days, and polyester - cotton yarn factory inventory available days [70][77][80] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures include polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory bottle - chip inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, East China water bottle - chip - recycled 3A - grade white bottle - chip, bottle - chip next - month spread (next month - base month), and bottle - chip next - next - month spread (next - next month - base month) [86][88][94]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious and bullish stance on PX/PTA/PF/PR [5]. Core Viewpoints - On March 9, the main contracts of PX/PTA/PF/PR/MEG in the polyester industry chain hit the daily limit due to the tense situation in Iran and the low passage volume in the Strait of Hormuz, which affected the global supply chain. The sharp rise in crude oil prices also contributed to this [1]. - The "sealing-off" trend in the polyester market on Monday led to a significant increase in market quotes. The inventory of MEG in some major ports in East China increased, but the market is trading on the expectation of supply decline due to refinery load reduction. The unexpected shutdown of a 1.6 million - ton PX plant in Ningbo further intensified market tension, and there is a seasonal de - stocking expectation in the balance sheet [2]. - The market focus is on the Iran situation, which has led to an increase in crude oil prices. The PX supply problem has worsened, and the demand has increased. The PTA is in a situation of cost - supported upward movement, with compressed processing fees in the short - term and better long - term expectations. The polyester demand is gradually recovering, and the inventory pressure of polyester products is not large [3][4]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The report includes figures on the TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber basis [11][12][17]. Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures cover PX processing fees, PTA spot processing fees, South Korean xylene isomerization profits, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profits [19][21]. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - It includes figures on toluene US - Asia spreads, toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR, and PTA export profits [26][28]. Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures show the PTA load in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the PX load in China and Asia [29][32][34]. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - It includes figures on PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecasts, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [40][42][43]. Downstream Polyester Load - Figures cover filament sales, short - fiber sales, polyester load, direct - spun filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, and the operating rates of weaving, texturing, and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang [50][52][60]. PF Detailed Data - It includes figures on 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, raw - recycled spread, pure polyester yarn operating rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn operating rate, and polyester - cotton yarn processing fees [72][79][86]. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures show polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fees, bottle - chip export processing fees, bottle - chip export profits, and bottle - chip inter - month spreads [90][92][97].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a mid - term cautious and bullish rating for PX/PTA/PF/PR [4] 2. Core Viewpoints - The polyester industry chain PX/PTA/PF/PR/MEG main contracts continued to rise due to the tense Iran situation, which may affect surrounding countries and has already impacted the actual transportation in the Strait of Hormuz [1] - On the one hand, rising energy costs such as crude oil support the polyester industry chain; on the other hand, there is a risk of the US - Iran tension spreading to other Middle - Eastern countries. As the Middle East is a concentrated area for PX and EG production capacity, device shutdowns may have a significant impact on global supply. The Strait of Hormuz issue may also affect the supply of crude oil and condensate to refineries in other regions, leading to passive production cuts or load reduction in refineries, and increasing freight and insurance costs [1] - Due to concerns about the stability of upstream raw material supply, some domestic plants have started preventive load reduction, resulting in an ethylene glycol production loss of about 900 - 1000 tons per day. Zhejiang Petrochemical has reduced its load, with a 2.5 - million - ton PX device under maintenance from the end of last month for 10 - 15 days and a 2 - million - ton PX device to be maintained for 30 - 40 days around the middle of the month. China already had some PX maintenance plans from March to April, with a seasonal de - stocking expectation in the balance sheet. If more refineries at home and abroad reduce their loads, it will further affect the supply of PX and ethylene glycol [1] - In terms of PX, the PXN was $282/ton (a month - on - month change of - $1.80/ton). The actual impact of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz on PX exports from Middle - Eastern refineries is gradually emerging. Under the influence of geopolitics on supply, the PX spot structure has changed, with the April and May spot turning into a Back structure, and the floating price has further strengthened. The PTA operating rate has increased, and the polyester load is being restored. The PX fundamentals have improved month - on - month after the Spring Festival. Maintenance will be gradually implemented from mid - to late March, and de - stocking is expected in April. The medium - term outlook remains good, and attention should be paid to the changes in overseas PX devices under the influence of the Iran situation [2] - For TA, the PTA spot basis was - 46 yuan/ton (a month - on - month change of + 7 yuan/ton), the PTA spot processing fee was 242 yuan/ton (a month - on - month change of + 11 yuan/ton), and the main - contract processing fee on the disk was 388 yuan/ton (a month - on - month change of + 18 yuan/ton). The weaving and polyester loads are slowly recovering from a low level. The de - stocking rhythm was postponed due to the concentrated restart of PTA devices at the end of February, and inventory accumulation continued in March. The current situation is still weak, and attention should be paid to the demand recovery. However, in the long - term, as the cycle of concentrated capacity launch ends, the PTA processing fee is expected to gradually improve, and the long - term outlook remains good [2] - In terms of demand, the polyester operating rate was 79.5% (a month - on - month increase of 1.9%). The downstream weaving and polyester loads will gradually recover in March. The current inventories of domestic and foreign textile and clothing are not high. Attention should be paid to the downstream restocking actions and the textile and clothing export orders after the nominal tariff reduction [2] - For PF, the spot production profit was - 4 yuan/ton (a month - on - month change of - 19 yuan/ton). After the Spring Festival, the load of direct - spinning polyester staple fiber factories is gradually increasing, with most factories starting up around the end of February and early March. The load is expected to gradually increase in March, and attention should be paid to the improvement of downstream orders [3] - For PR, the bottle - chip spot processing fee was 565 yuan/ton (a month - on - month change of - 16 yuan/ton). After the Spring Festival, the overall inventory of polyester bottle - chip factories has slightly increased. The polyester bottle - chip devices are being restarted one after another, and the overall supply has slightly increased. The tight supply - demand situation has been marginally alleviated. The downstream is gradually recovering, and the polyester bottle - chip processing fee is expected to remain stable [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price and Basis - Figures include TA main - contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main - contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PTA East - China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural - white basis [8][9][14] 3.2 Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures cover PX processing fee PXN (PX China CFR - naphtha Japan CFR), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [16][18] 3.3 International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Figures involve toluene US - Asia spread (FOB US Gulf - FOB South Korea), toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [23][25] 3.4 Upstream PX and PTA Operation Rates - Figures show China's PTA load, South Korea's PTA load, Taiwan's PTA load, China's PX load, and Asia's PX load [26][29][31] 3.5 Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures include PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse - receipt inventory, PX warehouse - receipt inventory, and PF warehouse - receipt inventory [36][38][39] 3.6 Downstream Polyester Load - Figures cover filament sales, short - fiber sales, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament DTY factory inventory days, filament FDY factory inventory days, filament POY factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom operation rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machine operation rate, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang dyeing operation rate [46][48][56] 3.7 PF Detailed Data - Figures include 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, raw - recycled spread (1.4D polyester staple - 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber), pure - polyester yarn operation rate, pure - polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn operation rate, and polyester - cotton yarn processing fee [71][72][75] 3.8 PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures involve polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory bottle - chip inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, East - China water bottle - chip - recycled 3A - grade white bottle - chip spread, bottle - chip next - month spread (next month - base month), and bottle - chip next - next - month spread (next - next month - base month) [86][91][93]

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - The report suggests a moderately bullish stance on PX/PTA/PF/PR in the medium term [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The tension in the Iran situation has led to a rise in crude oil prices and affected the supply of the polyester industry chain. There are concerns about the stability of upstream raw material supply, and some domestic plants have started preventive production cuts [1] - The PX spot structure has changed, and there is a seasonal de - stocking expectation in the balance sheet. The fundamentals of PX have improved month - on - month, and the medium - term outlook is positive [2] - The current situation of PTA is weak, but the processing fee is expected to gradually improve in the long - term as the cycle of concentrated production capacity release ends [2] - The polyester operating rate is gradually recovering, and attention should be paid to downstream restocking actions and textile and clothing export orders [3] - For the strategy, it is moderately bullish on PX/PTA/PF/PR in the medium term, and a PX 5 - 9 calendar spread long position is recommended [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Price and Basis - The report includes charts on the TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber basis [8][9][11] Upstream Profits and Spreads - Charts cover PX processing fee (PXN), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [16][20] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - It includes charts on the toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [22][24] Upstream PX and PTA Operation - Charts show the operating rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the PX operating rates in China and Asia [25][28][30] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Charts display the weekly social inventory of PTA, monthly social inventory of PX, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecasts, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [35][37][38] Downstream Polyester Load - Charts cover the production and sales of long - filament and short - fiber, polyester load, direct - spun long - filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, factory inventory days of long - filament products, and the operating rates of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms, texturing machines, and dyeing machines [46][48][56] Detailed PF Data - Charts include polyester staple fiber load, factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical and equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, raw - recycled spread, and the operating rates and production profits of pure polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn [69][71][76] Detailed PR Fundamental Data - Charts show polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory inventory days, bottle - chip spot and export processing fees, bottle - chip export profit, and the inter - month spreads of bottle - chip [87][92][96]