1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cancellation of India's BIS certification is beneficial for the export of PTA and filaments, but the new production capacity in India and Indonesia in 2026 may reduce their import volume. The export of filaments may increase by 2 - 30,000 tons per month in 2026 [2]. - The low price of ethylbenzene drives the expectation of blending oil, and the aromatics arbitrage between Asia and America has started, leading to the rise of PX and PTA prices [2]. - The supply of oil from the Middle East, Latin America, and Russia has increased significantly since Q3, with a bearish impact on oil prices. However, market differentiation due to sanctions still exists, and geopolitical and macro - events may affect market sentiment [2]. - For PX, the domestic PX plant load has reached a high level in recent years, and PXN has support but limited rebound space. For TA, there is limited inventory accumulation pressure in November, but it will increase after December. In the long - term, PTA processing fees are expected to improve [2][3][5][6]. - The polyester开工率 is 91.3% (down 0.4% month - on - month), with improved domestic sales orders since late October. The polyester load in November is expected to remain around 91% [3]. - For PF, the spot production profit is 156 yuan/ton (down 26 yuan/ton month - on - month), with high load and low inventory. The processing fee is expected to remain stable. For PR, the bottle - chip processing fee is expected to fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to raw material price fluctuations [3][6]. - The strategy is to be cautiously bullish on PX/PTA/PF/PR. The 01 contract has limited upside space due to inventory accumulation pressure, and attention should be paid to the 05 contract in the long - term. There are no cross - variety and cross - period strategies [5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price and Basis - Figures include TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber basis [10][13][15] 3.2 Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures cover PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [18][21] 3.3 International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Figures involve toluene Asia - America spread, toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [26][28] 3.4 Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures show the operating rates of Chinese, South Korean, and Taiwanese PTA plants, as well as Chinese and Asian PX plants [29][32][33] 3.5 Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures display PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [38][41][42] 3.6 Downstream Polyester Load - Figures include filament sales volume, short - fiber sales volume, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom start - up rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machine start - up rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang dyeing start - up rate, and filament profit [49][51][60] 3.7 PF Detailed Data - Figures cover polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, original - recycled price difference, pure polyester yarn start - up rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn start - up rate, and polyester - cotton yarn processing fee [70][80][84] 3.8 PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures include polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, price difference between East China water bottle chips and recycled 3A - grade white bottle chips, bottle - chip next - month spread, and bottle - chip next - next - month spread [88][90][98]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The anti-involution of the polyester industry chain has fermented again, and the PTA and bottle-grade polyester chip industries will hold a development symposium to prevent and resolve involutionary competition [1]. - The PTA processing fee has been compressed to a low level, but with the end of this round of PTA production and the planned increase in polyester production capacity in 2026, the pattern of oversupply of PTA capacity and low processing fees is expected to gradually reverse [1]. - The recent rebound in crude oil prices is due to increased sanctions on Russia by the US and the EU, as well as other factors, but the contradiction of oversupply of crude oil has begun to materialize, and the macro situation is still unclear [2]. - The short-term rebound of PX floating prices is limited, and the rebound space of PXN is restricted due to fewer maintenance plans in the fourth quarter and capacity expansion of some devices [2]. - The PTA processing fee has been compressed to a low level, with more maintenance plans in the near term and less inventory accumulation pressure, but the pressure will gradually appear after November [2]. - The polyester operating rate is 91.4%, and domestic sales orders have improved significantly this week. The inventory of filaments has decreased significantly, but the current raw material inventory of weaving is not high [3]. - The spot production profit of PF is 202 yuan/ton, the short-fiber factory's sales are smooth, and the inventory continues to decrease [3]. - The spot processing fee of PR is 472 yuan/ton, the load remains stable, and attention should be paid to the later device load and new capacity release progress [3]. - For the futures market, PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated as neutral. It is recommended to go long on the PF processing fee at low prices and there is no recommendation for inter-period trading [4][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Price and Basis - The TA main contract spot basis is -81 yuan/ton (month-on-month change +2 yuan/ton), and the PTA spot processing fee is 91 yuan/ton (month-on-month change +23 yuan/ton) [2]. II. Upstream Profits and Spreads - The PXN is 234 US dollars/ton (month-on-month change -4.00 US dollars/ton), and the PXN rebound space is limited [2]. III. International Spreads and Import-Export Profits - Not provided in the content IV. Upstream PX and PTA Startups - The PX load in China has gradually recovered to a relatively high level, and the PTA near-term maintenance plans are many [2]. V. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The PTA inventory accumulation pressure after November will gradually appear [2]. VI. Downstream Polyester Load - The polyester operating rate is 91.4% (month-on-month +0.0%), and the load of weaving machines and texturing machines has rebounded significantly [3]. VII. PF Detailed Data - The spot production profit of PF is 202 yuan/ton (month-on-month -42 yuan/ton), and the short-fiber processing difference is moderately compressed to the 1100 - 1200 range [3]. VIII. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - The spot processing fee of PR is 472 yuan/ton (month-on-month change +1 yuan/ton), and the load remains stable [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The report predicts that PX, PTA, and PR will operate in a volatile manner. There are concerns about supply - demand imbalances in the market, with factors like OPEC+增产, device maintenance, and changes in production and sales affecting the prices and market trends of these products [2] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream Crude Oil and Naphtha**: On September 23, 2025, WTI crude oil futures settled at $63.41 per barrel, up 1.81%; Brent crude oil futures settled at $67.63 per barrel, up 1.59%; the spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $597.50 per ton, up 0.31% [1] - **PX Prices**: The spot price of PX (CFR China Main Port) was $803 per ton, down 0.66%. CZCE PX contracts also showed a decline, with the main - contract closing price at 6530 yuan/ton, down 0.94% [1] - **PTA Prices**: The CZCE TA main - contract closing price was 4556 yuan/ton, down 0.65%. The spot price of PTA in the domestic market was 4470 yuan/ton, down 1.11% [1] - **PR Prices**: The CZCE PR main - contract closing price was 5718 yuan/ton, down 0.49%. The mainstream market price of polyester bottle - chips in the East China market was 5710 yuan/ton, down 0.35% [1] Operating Conditions - For the PX industry, the operating rate on September 23, 2025, was 85.57%, unchanged from the previous value. The PTA factory load rate was 79.38%, up 2.56 percentage points [1] - The load rates of polyester factories, bottle - chip factories, and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms remained unchanged at 89.00%, 74.19%, and 67.55% respectively. The production - sales rates of polyester products such as polyester filament, polyester staple fiber, and polyester chips all decreased [1] Device Information - A 700,000 - ton PX device in the Northeast has been under maintenance since September 18, with an expected maintenance period of about 45 days [2] Market Analysis - **PX**: OPEC+ is continuing to increase production, and Iraq and the Kurdish region have reached a preliminary agreement to restart the oil pipeline. The expected increase in crude oil supply of 230,000 barrels per day has intensified concerns about supply over - capacity. The global supply - surplus expectation for PX is strengthening, and its cost support is insufficient. There is an obvious increase in PX supply due to short - process capacity expansion and postponed device maintenance, while demand has decreased due to delayed new PTA device production and multiple PTA device maintenance [2] - **PTA**: With insufficient cost support, the TA2601 contract closed at 4556 yuan/ton. The global supply - surplus expectation is strengthening, and PTA operating conditions are a mix of start - up and load reduction. The market's bearish sentiment dominates, and the production and sales of polyester products are mediocre [2] - **PR**: The polyester bottle - chip market in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is trading at 5700 - 5820 yuan/ton. The prices of polyester raw materials PTA and bottle - chip futures are weakly volatile. The supply side has sufficient market supply, and downstream terminals are replenishing stocks at low prices, with a fair trading atmosphere [2]