Export Performance - In September, export growth rebounded to 8.3%, up 3.9 percentage points from the previous month, exceeding the Wind consensus expectation of 5.7%[3] - The month-on-month export growth was 2.2%, slightly below seasonal expectations[3] - The rebound in exports was primarily driven by a low base effect, as the year-on-year growth in September 2024 was only 2.3%, the second-lowest point of the year[3] Regional Export Trends - Exports to non-U.S. economies showed strong resilience, with exports to Africa surging by 56.4%, an increase of 29.5 percentage points from the previous month, contributing 2.7 percentage points to overall export growth[4] - Exports to ASEAN and the EU maintained high growth rates of 15.6% and 14.2%, respectively, with EU growth up 3.8 percentage points from the previous month[4] - Exports to the U.S. continued to decline, with a year-on-year drop of 27.0% and a cumulative decline of 16.8%[4] Product Category Insights - Labor-intensive product exports showed some recovery, but many categories remained in negative growth, such as bags (-12.3%) and toys (-28.0%), collectively dragging down overall exports by 0.8 percentage points[5] - In contrast, technology-intensive product exports significantly rebounded, with electromechanical products growing by 12.6%, contributing 7.7 percentage points to export growth[5] Import Dynamics - Imports saw a significant rebound in September, with a year-on-year growth of 7.4%, up 6.1 percentage points from the previous month[6] - Agricultural imports surged, with a notable increase in soybean imports, which grew by 1.7%, a rise of 10.6 percentage points from the previous month[6] - High-tech product imports also rose sharply, with integrated circuit imports increasing by 14.1%[7] Future Outlook - The export rebound in September was mainly driven by low base effects, but as the base rises, export growth may slow again[7] - The structural shift in export markets towards non-U.S. regions is expected to provide some support, with exports to ASEAN, EU, Latin America, Africa, and Hong Kong now accounting for over 55% of total exports[7]