1月28日，石油、煤炭等顺周期、高价值板块上冲，截至14:49，能源ETF(159930)爆量上涨3.36%，盘中资金抓紧跑步进场，能源ETF(159930)强势吸金超 9400万元，加上今日已经连续5日获资金净流入，合计"吸金"超2亿元。 能源ETF(159930)标的指数成分股涨跌不一，中国海油、杰瑞股份涨超7%，其中中国海油创新历史新高，山西焦煤等涨超6%，中国石油涨超3%，陕西煤 业、中煤能源等涨超2%，中国神华等涨幅居前。 【煤炭：煤价具备向上弹性，基本面或已到拐点右侧】 开源证券指出，当前动力煤和炼焦煤价格仍处于历史低位，为反弹提供了空间。随着供给端"查超产"政策推动产量收缩，以及需求端进入取暖旺季，煤炭供 需基本面有望持续改善，两类煤种价格均具备向上弹性。其中，动力煤有长协机制修复和"煤和火电企业盈利均分"的逻辑支撑;而炼焦煤因市场化程度更 高，对供需变化更敏感，可能展现出更大的价格弹性。多数煤企依然保持了高分红的意愿。煤炭板块具备周期与红利的双重属性，当前煤炭持仓低位，基本 面已到拐点右侧，已到布局时点。（来源于开源证券20251124《周期与红利双逻辑 四主线布局煤炭板块》） 高股息低估值增 ...

Core Viewpoint - The coal sector is experiencing a reversal in supply-demand dynamics, with the bottom of the cycle confirmed in Q2 2025, leading to an upward trend in coal prices due to supply constraints and increasing demand [3][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - The energy ETF (159930) has seen significant inflows, with a net inflow of 113 million yuan over the past 10 days, indicating strong investor interest in the energy sector [4]. - The ETF's component stocks have shown mixed performance, with notable gains in coal companies like China Coal Energy, while others like Shanxi Coking Coal have experienced declines [4]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - National coal production has declined for three consecutive months since July, influenced by policies aimed at curbing overproduction, which is expected to continue impacting supply [3][5]. - Electricity consumption growth has rebounded to 4.6% in August and September, suggesting a potential increase in demand as winter approaches [3]. Group 3: Policy Impact - The "anti-involution" policies have led to stricter enforcement against overproduction, which is a key factor supporting the recent rise in coal prices [3][5]. - Ongoing safety inspections and regulatory measures are expected to further constrain coal production, reinforcing the upward price trajectory [3]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The coal sector is characterized by high performance, cash flow, and dividends, making it an attractive investment option amid a recovering macroeconomic environment [5]. - The energy sector, particularly coal and oil, offers high dividend yields, with coal stocks showing a yield of approximately 4.69% [6].