1月28日，石油、煤炭等顺周期、高价值板块上冲，截至14:49，能源ETF(159930)爆量上涨3.36%，盘中资金抓紧跑步进场，能源ETF(159930)强势吸金超 9400万元，加上今日已经连续5日获资金净流入，合计"吸金"超2亿元。 能源ETF(159930)标的指数成分股涨跌不一，中国海油、杰瑞股份涨超7%，其中中国海油创新历史新高，山西焦煤等涨超6%，中国石油涨超3%，陕西煤 业、中煤能源等涨超2%，中国神华等涨幅居前。 【煤炭：煤价具备向上弹性，基本面或已到拐点右侧】 开源证券指出，当前动力煤和炼焦煤价格仍处于历史低位，为反弹提供了空间。随着供给端"查超产"政策推动产量收缩，以及需求端进入取暖旺季，煤炭供 需基本面有望持续改善，两类煤种价格均具备向上弹性。其中，动力煤有长协机制修复和"煤和火电企业盈利均分"的逻辑支撑;而炼焦煤因市场化程度更 高，对供需变化更敏感，可能展现出更大的价格弹性。多数煤企依然保持了高分红的意愿。煤炭板块具备周期与红利的双重属性，当前煤炭持仓低位，基本 面已到拐点右侧，已到布局时点。（来源于开源证券20251124《周期与红利双逻辑 四主线布局煤炭板块》） 高股息低估值增 ...

化工行业ETF易方达（516570）跟踪中证石化产业指数，备受资金青睐。数据显示，该基金连续5日获 资金净流入，合计超2.2亿，近20日资金净流入超3.4亿。截至发稿，化工行业ETF易方达（516570）盘 中溢价成交，溢价率达0.28%。 消息面上，近期中东局势显著升温，市场担忧大规模石油断供，原油地缘溢价攀升，并带动下游能化商 品上涨。 截至9：42，中证石化产业指数（H11057）涨0.54%，成分股中，万华化学涨1.77%，中国石油涨 1.72%，中国石化涨0.47%，盐湖股份跌1.25%，中国海油涨2.86%，藏格矿业跌2.32%，巨化股份跌 0.83%，恒力石化涨0.43%，华鲁恒升涨0.6%，宝丰能源涨2.21%。 易方达中证石化产业ETF联接A(020104.OF) 易方达中证石化产业ETF联接C(020105.OF) 华泰证券认为，油价或已进入筑底反弹阶段，叠加美联储降息对需求拉动，亚非拉地区成品油需求或景 气上行，上调2026年布伦特均价为65美元/桶（前值62美元/桶）。长期而言，考虑主要产油国边际成本 及"利重于量"诉求，油价中枢存60美元/桶底部支撑。具备增产降本能力及天然气业务增量 ...

截至1月26日，化工行业ETF易方达(516570)最新规模、最新份额均创成立以来新高。 从资金净流入方面来看，化工行业ETF易方达(516570)近7天获得连续资金净流入，最高单日获得 6218.06万元净流入，合计"吸金"2.05亿元。 华泰证券认为，油价或已进入筑底反弹阶段，叠加美联储降息对需求拉动，亚非拉地区成品油需求或景 气上行，上调2026年布伦特均价为65美元/桶（前值62美元/桶）。长期而言，考虑主要产油国边际成本 及"利重于量"诉求，油价中枢存60美元/桶底部支撑。具备增产降本能力及天然气业务增量的能源龙头 企业或将显现配置机遇；油价筑底后库存损失减少，炼化有望迎来盈利低迷下的景气反转。 截至2026年1月27日 09:35，中证石化产业指数(H11057)强势上涨1.12%。化工行业ETF易方达(516570)上 涨0.98%，成交额迅速走阔。 化工行业ETF易方达（516570，场外联接A/C: 020104/020105）一键打包三桶油、万华化学等石油石 化、基础化工产业龙头，跟踪的中证石化产业指数指数构成接近于石化化工板块中哑铃策略标的，同时 涵盖高股息+高成长成份券，2023年以来 ...

Report Date - The report was released on April 2, 2025 [2] Report Industry - The report focuses on the crude oil industry [1] Report Investment Rating - No investment rating was provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Crude oil supply and demand are basically balanced. Geopolitically, there is an expectation of easing in the Russia-Ukraine situation, but the US has strengthened sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, which are expected to directly tighten supply. Oil prices are expected to bottom out and rebound, with limited demand-side drivers. It is recommended to go long on dips. Affected by the sanctions, SC may outperform the overseas market [6] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Data**: WTI's opening price was $69.43, closing at $71.4, with a high of $71.83, a low of $68.81, a daily increase of 2.94%, and a trading volume of 29.35 million lots. Brent's opening price was $72.94, closing at $74.71, with a high of $75.04, a low of $72.28, a daily increase of 2.68%, and a trading volume of 48.09 million lots. SC's opening price was 540.2 yuan/barrel, closing at 556.1 yuan/barrel, with a high of 556.7 yuan/barrel, a low of 538.8 yuan/barrel, a daily increase of 3.48%, and a trading volume of 11.86 million lots [6] - **Operation Suggestion**: Given the supply disruptions and sanctions, it is recommended to go long on dips, as SC may show stronger performance due to the sanctions [6] 2. Industry News - **CPC Pipeline Disruption**: The Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) announced that two of its three mooring points at the terminal have stopped operating. Traders estimate that if only one mooring point is operational, loading capacity may be reduced by about 50%. The planned oil export volume for the CPC pipeline in April was 1.7 million barrels per day, or about 6.5 million tons [9] - **Geopolitical News**: The Kremlin stated that Russian President Putin is still willing to maintain contact with US President Trump [9] - **Shandong Refinery Data**: As of the week ending March 31, the crude oil arrival volume at Shandong independent refineries was 2.985 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 178,000 tons, or 5.63%. In the same period last year, the arrival volume was 1.162 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 177,000 tons, or 13.22%. The arriving crude oil was mainly medium-quality, with 680,000 tons of Russian crude oil arriving, and the arrival volume of diluted bitumen remained at zero [9] 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including global high-frequency crude oil inventories, WTI and Brent fund positions, spot prices of WTI, Oman, and Dtd Brent, US crude oil production growth rate, and EIA crude oil inventories [11][12][20]