Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the cosmetics industry [3] Core Insights - The cosmetics industry is experiencing stable growth with a slight improvement in growth rates, while profitability continues to show differentiation among companies [11][16] - The average revenue growth rate for the cosmetics industry in Q1 and Q2 of 2025 was -8.4% and -2.1%, respectively, indicating a slight improvement in the second quarter [16] - Online sales channels, particularly Tmall and Douyin, have shown a year-on-year growth of 13.1% in the first half of 2025, reflecting a recovery in consumer demand [11] Summary by Sections Cosmetics: Stable Growth and Business Adjustments - The cosmetics industry showed a year-on-year growth of 3.1% and 2.6% in Q1 and Q2 of 2025, respectively, with a significant improvement compared to the -1.1% growth in 2024 [11] - The industry is characterized by a slight improvement in growth rates, with the overall growth falling into a stable range [11] Revenue: Differentiation Among Brands - The average revenue growth for the brand segment was 0.4% and 6.5% in Q1 and Q2 of 2025, respectively, indicating stronger resilience compared to upstream and downstream segments [16] - Mid-sized brands like Maogeping and Shangmei have achieved good growth amidst a stable industry backdrop, while leading companies like Proya continue to grow steadily [16] Gross Margin Trends - The average gross margin for the brand segment increased by 1.6 percentage points in the first half of 2025, driven by improved business structures and effective price control by certain brands [21] - Specific brands like Water Sheep and Beitaini have seen significant improvements in gross margins due to product upgrades and price management strategies [21] Product Innovation: Focus on Core Series and Efficacy Expansion - Brands are focusing on upgrading core product lines and expanding efficacy categories, particularly in sunscreen and whitening, with increased competition expected [25] - New product launches include Proya's whitening series and Beitaini's anti-aging products, indicating a trend towards enhancing product offerings [25] Sales Expenses: Rising Industry Rates - The average sales expense ratio for brands in the first half of 2025 was 44.7%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.7 percentage points, influenced by rising competition and platform costs [31] - The narrowing of gross sales margins indicates ongoing pressure on profitability across the industry [31]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside of 15% to 35% from the current price [2][8]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated strong performance during the 618 promotional event, leading in GMV rankings in the skincare category on major platforms [4]. - The company is focusing on product upgrades and enhancing its research and development capabilities, aiming to solidify its position as a leading domestic brand and expand globally [7]. - The financial forecasts suggest a steady increase in net profit and earnings per share (EPS) over the next few years, with projected net profits of RMB 18.72 billion, RMB 22.06 billion, and RMB 25.78 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [6][7]. Financial Summary - The company reported a net profit of RMB 817 million in 2022, with projections of RMB 1.872 billion for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 20.61% [6][9]. - Revenue is expected to grow from RMB 6.385 billion in 2022 to RMB 12.776 billion in 2025, indicating a robust growth trajectory [9]. - The company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 28 in 2022 to 17 in 2025, suggesting an attractive valuation as earnings grow [6][9].