腾讯视频号

Search documents
摩根士丹利:中国广告-展开AI能力增强头部互联网广告企业实力
摩根· 2025-06-12 07:19
Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" (OW) rating to Tencent, Alibaba, and Meituan, while maintaining an "Equal Weight" (EW) rating for Kuaishou, Bilibili, JD, Mango Excellent Media, Focus Media, iQIYI, and Baidu, and a "Underweight" (UW) rating for Weibo [4]. Core Insights - The Chinese advertising industry is projected to grow by 11.6% year-on-year in 2025, reaching RMB 1.8 trillion, an increase from the previous forecast of 7% [2][28]. - Online advertising growth is expected to rise from 8% to 12%, while offline advertising growth is revised down from 2% to 1% [2][28]. - Key growth areas in online advertising include short video ads (upgraded growth rate from 13% to 21%), social ads (from 8% to 12%), and e-commerce ads (from 8.3% to 10.8%), while search ads are expected to decline from a growth of 1% to a decrease of 7% [2][28]. Demand-Side Long-Term Trends - Advertisers are concentrating their budgets on fewer platforms, with the average number of platforms used decreasing from 10.1 in 2022 to 8.1 in 2025 [33]. - There is a growing preference for online advertising, with performance advertising expected to increase from 63% to 66% of total budgets by 2025 [36]. - Advertisers are shifting focus from brand awareness to customer purchases, indicating a change in marketing priorities [40]. Competitive Landscape - Short video and social ads continue to lead in popularity, with Douyin, WeChat, and Tencent Video Accounts expected to outperform Kuaishou [3][50]. - Major share gainers include Douyin, Tencent (WeChat, Tencent Video Accounts), and Meituan, while share losers are Weibo, Baidu, and iQIYI [3][50]. AI Integration - AI-enabled advertising tools are enhancing efficiency, reach, and effectiveness for leading internet advertising companies, allowing them to capture more market share [3][50]. - The report suggests that companies with limited improvements in advertising efficiency may see a decline in market share [3]. Stock Selection Strategy - The report recommends an overweight position in Tencent, Alibaba, and Meituan, with an equal weight on Kuaishou, Bilibili, JD, Mango Excellent Media, Focus Media, iQIYI, and Baidu, and an underweight position in Weibo [4].