自动驾驶芯片M100
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理想财报不佳股价还涨了?大摩:“利空出尽”而非反转,未来关键是“自研芯片和产能爬坡”
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-11-27 07:40
Core Insights - Despite weak Q3 financial results and lackluster guidance, Li Auto's stock price has unexpectedly rebounded, indicating a tactical rebound after the negative impact of the MEGA model has been fully priced in [1][2] Group 1: Market Reaction - The market's response to Li Auto's poor data coupled with rising stock prices is seen as a tactical rebound rather than a fundamental reversal, as investors confirm the negative factors surrounding the MEGA model have been fully accounted for [2] - Analysts suggest that investors should not overanalyze short-term fluctuations, as the stock price movement reflects emotional release rather than a shift in fundamentals [2] Group 2: Supply Chain and Profitability Challenges - Li Auto continues to face significant challenges related to supply chain bottlenecks, with the i6 model's production ramp-up progressing slowly, and battery shortages expected to persist until early 2026 [2] - The company anticipates a 3-4 percentage point decline in adjusted vehicle profit margins for Q4, down to 15-16%, primarily due to increased promotions and an unfavorable product mix [2][3] - Management remains hopeful that profit margins for the i6 can recover to above 15% once production stabilizes next year [2] Group 3: Future Prospects and Technology Bets - The future of Li Auto is heavily reliant on a "technology gamble" set for 2026, with plans to regain dominance in the extended-range electric vehicle (EREV) market through the upgraded L series [2][3] - A key variable in this strategy is the successful implementation of in-house developed technologies, particularly the M100 autonomous driving chip, which will be integral to the new L series and subsequent I series [3] - Li Auto is also set to introduce a self-developed powertrain solution that includes a 5C battery and enhanced electric drive system [3]