Core Insights - Despite weak Q3 financial results and lackluster guidance, Li Auto's stock price has unexpectedly rebounded, indicating a tactical rebound after the negative impact of the MEGA model has been fully priced in [1][2] Group 1: Market Reaction - The market's response to Li Auto's poor data coupled with rising stock prices is seen as a tactical rebound rather than a fundamental reversal, as investors confirm the negative factors surrounding the MEGA model have been fully accounted for [2] - Analysts suggest that investors should not overanalyze short-term fluctuations, as the stock price movement reflects emotional release rather than a shift in fundamentals [2] Group 2: Supply Chain and Profitability Challenges - Li Auto continues to face significant challenges related to supply chain bottlenecks, with the i6 model's production ramp-up progressing slowly, and battery shortages expected to persist until early 2026 [2] - The company anticipates a 3-4 percentage point decline in adjusted vehicle profit margins for Q4, down to 15-16%, primarily due to increased promotions and an unfavorable product mix [2][3] - Management remains hopeful that profit margins for the i6 can recover to above 15% once production stabilizes next year [2] Group 3: Future Prospects and Technology Bets - The future of Li Auto is heavily reliant on a "technology gamble" set for 2026, with plans to regain dominance in the extended-range electric vehicle (EREV) market through the upgraded L series [2][3] - A key variable in this strategy is the successful implementation of in-house developed technologies, particularly the M100 autonomous driving chip, which will be integral to the new L series and subsequent I series [3] - Li Auto is also set to introduce a self-developed powertrain solution that includes a 5C battery and enhanced electric drive system [3]

中金主要观点如下： 中金发布研报称，维持理想汽车-W(02015)跑赢行业评级。港美股分别对应15/14x 26E P/E，考虑到 MEGA召回损失及市场竞争加剧，下调2025/26年Non-GAAP盈利预测66%/30%至26/98亿元，市场对 2025年盈利下滑、26年市场竞争压力等都有一定预期，该行更关注公司强产品周期和长期AI投入带来 的反转，因此相应下调港美股目标价7%/7%至100港元/26美元，分别对应21/20x 26E P/E，存在40%/42% 上行空间。 3Q业绩低于市场预期 公司公布3Q业绩：营收273.7亿元，Non-GAAP净亏损3.6亿元，3Q产生MEGA车型召回损失，业绩低于 市场预期。 一次性计入召回成本，实际毛利率保持稳定 重回创业型企业思路，坚持长维度投入 本次业绩会中，公司CEO李想阐述了对未来十年长维度的思考。组织上，公司重回创业公司管理模式， 核心聚焦深度对话，聚焦用户价值，持续提升效率，识别关键问题并减少信息不对称。产品上，脱离单 纯电动车的智能终端，明确拓展为提供主动服务的具身智能终端(包含汽车及非车形态);技术上，继续提 升感知、模型、算力等核心技术，构建理解 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is focused on the upcoming Q3 2025 earnings reports from new car manufacturers, with Morgan Stanley predicting that performance will meet expectations, but the real interest lies in whether Q4 will show operational improvements [1] Group 1: Q3 Performance Overview - Key indicators for Q3 performance include vehicle gross margin and operational expense control, which are critical for assessing the quality of earnings [1] - NIO is expected to show a significant narrowing of losses, while Li Auto maintains profitability but with declining profits, and Xpeng's losses are projected to remain stable compared to Q2 [2] Group 2: Xpeng Motors - Xpeng's Q3 delivery volume reached 116,000 units, a 12% year-over-year increase, aligning with company guidance [3] - Revenue is expected to be 20.4 billion RMB, consistent with guidance, indicating stable average selling prices [3] - Vehicle gross margin is projected to increase slightly from 14.3% to 14.5%, with overall gross margin remaining stable at around 17.2% [3][4] Group 3: Li Auto - Li Auto's Q3 delivery volume was 93,000 units, meeting guidance, but revenue is expected to decline by 15% to 25.7 billion RMB due to changes in sales mix and increased discounts [7] - Vehicle gross margin is expected to remain at 19.4%, while overall gross margin is projected at 21%, with total gross profit around 5.4 billion RMB [8] - The company anticipates an operational loss of 200 million RMB for Q3, a significant improvement from an 800 million RMB profit in Q2, with net profit expected to be 300 million RMB [8] Group 4: NIO - NIO's Q3 delivery volume is projected at 87,000 units, a 21% quarter-over-quarter increase, with revenue expected to be 21.9 billion RMB [10] - Vehicle gross margin is anticipated to rise to 12.5%, while overall gross margin is expected to be around 10.9% [10] - NIO is expected to narrow its net loss from 5 billion RMB in Q2 to approximately 4.3 billion RMB in Q3, with operational expenses decreasing from 7 billion RMB to 6.7 billion RMB [10] - For Q4, NIO forecasts a potential delivery surge of 72% to 150,000 units, driven by new models and brand strategies [10]

Group 1 - The core issue is that Li Auto's VLA (Vision-Language-Action Model) remote summon feature has been reported and the company has been forced to suspend the rollout of this feature [1] - Li Auto expressed that since the release of the VLA driver model, they have received significant attention and discussions from the industry and various sectors, emphasizing their sense of responsibility in advancing new features cautiously [1] - Starting from September 10, the VLA driver model and related features will be gradually pushed to all Li Auto L series and MEGA models equipped with the AD Max advanced driver assistance system, enhancing various assistance functions including parking assistance [1]