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2季度盈利在低基数上增长强劲,估值仍具回升空间
BOCOM International· 2025-07-18 08:41
Industry Rating - The report maintains a "Leading" investment rating for the securities industry, indicating strong growth potential and favorable market conditions [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights a robust growth in Q2 earnings for the securities industry, with a year-on-year profit increase of 65%-80% for A-share listed brokers, averaging 72% [4][5]. - The average daily trading volume in A-shares for H1 2025 reached 1.36 trillion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 58.8% [4]. - The report emphasizes that the current valuation of the securities sector remains attractive, with the A-share securities industry index trading at a price-to-book ratio of 1.38, below the historical median of 1.52 [4]. Valuation Summary - The report provides a detailed valuation overview for key companies in the securities sector, including: - CITIC Securities (6030 HK): Buy rating, target price of 30.00 HKD, current price 25.65 HKD, with a potential upside of 17.0% [2][17]. - Huatai Securities (6886 HK): Buy rating, target price of 20.00 HKD, current price 16.40 HKD, with a potential upside of 22.0% [2][31]. - CICC (3908 HK): Buy rating, target price of 22.00 HKD, current price 18.94 HKD, with a potential upside of 16.2% [2][17]. - CITIC Construction Investment (6066 HK): Buy rating, target price of 14.00 HKD, current price 11.80 HKD, with a potential upside of 18.6% [2][17]. Performance Trends - The report notes that the performance of the securities industry has significantly improved compared to the previous year, with major indices showing positive trends [3][12]. - The report indicates that the IPO fundraising in A-shares has seen a recovery, with a total of 374 million RMB raised in H1 2025, marking a 15% year-on-year increase [4][10]. Financial Forecasts - The report projects a 19% year-on-year growth in overall profits for the securities industry in 2025, driven by favorable market conditions and strong performance from leading brokers [4][19]. - Specific forecasts for CITIC Securities include a projected net profit of 25.8 billion RMB for 2025, reflecting an 18.9% increase from the previous year [21][28]. Conclusion - The report concludes that the securities industry is well-positioned for continued growth, supported by strong earnings, favorable market conditions, and attractive valuations, maintaining a positive outlook for key players in the sector [4][19].