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舍得酒业(600702):经营业绩边际改善,盈利能力回升
Guotou Securities· 2025-09-15 06:36
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A" investment rating to the company, with a target price of 83.54 CNY over the next six months, corresponding to a 44.03X valuation for 2025 [4][7]. Core Insights - The company's operating performance shows marginal improvement, with a recovery in profitability despite a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025. The revenue for 2025H1 was 2.701 billion CNY, down 17.41% year-on-year, while the net profit was 443 million CNY, down 24.98% year-on-year [1]. - The sales of high-end liquor are under pressure, but the e-commerce channel has performed well, contributing to revenue growth. In 2025H1, liquor sales revenue was 2.418 billion CNY, a decrease of 19.0% year-on-year, while e-commerce sales grew by 23.8% in Q2 [2]. - The company has successfully reduced its expense ratios, leading to a significant recovery in profitability. The net profit margin for Q2 was 8.56%, an increase of 4.92 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to reduced marketing and management expenses [3]. Financial Performance Summary - The company expects revenue growth rates of -8.7%, 7.5%, and 10.4% for 2025 to 2027, with net profit growth rates of 82.8%, 15.9%, and 20.6% respectively [4][10]. - The gross profit margin for Q2 was 60.60%, slightly down by 0.54 percentage points year-on-year, indicating competitive pressure in the industry [3]. - The company had a total market capitalization of 22.012 billion CNY as of September 12, 2025, with a share price of 66.15 CNY [7].