12月26日，以"新开局、新动能、新征程"为主题的"启航·2025金融峰会"在北京圆满举办，大会由金融界主办，汇聚监管部门、行业协会、金融机构、上市 公司、媒体等数百位相关领导和重磅嘉宾。会上，第十四届金融界"金智奖"年度评选结果重磅揭晓，舍得酒业荣获"消费者信赖产品"奖。 面对白酒消费代际更迭与理性悦己需求上升的趋势，舍得酒业精准洞察消费者对"轻负担"饮酒体验和"松弛感"社交氛围的渴望，于2025年8月底创新推出行 业首款低酒度畅饮型老酒29度"舍得自在"。该产品凭借三大核心技术破局，成功攻克低酒度与高风味不可兼得的行业难题，让29度酒体依然保有坛贮老酒的 醇厚底蕴，重新定义了轻负担饮酌体验。同时，其还推出"马上有舍得"小酒盲盒，以"老酒+盲盒"组合精准切入年轻消费潮流，多维度拓展产品饮用边界与 消费场景。 未来，舍得酒业将继续坚守品质初心，深化老酒战略，以消费者需求为导向持续推进产品与体验创新，优化渠道服务体系，在传承传统白酒文化的同时，探 索与新时代消费者建立情感连接的新路径，为推动白酒行业高质量发展、优化消费市场生态贡献更多力量。 财经频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>>责任编辑：栎树 "金智奖" ...

Core Insights - The auction results reflect a significant shift in the perception of high-end Chinese liquor from mere consumer goods to collectible assets, as evidenced by record-breaking sales at major auctions [2][11]. Group 1: High-Value Transactions and Market Dynamics - The auction market for liquor in 2025 continues to showcase the strong value appeal of top brands, with a 100% sales rate for 133 bottles of aged Wuliangye at Sotheby's [3][12]. - Notable sales include a limited edition Wuliangye 1909 artist series sold for 190,000 HKD (approximately 237,500 HKD with fees) and a 1990 Moutai fetching 1,035,000 HKD [2][12]. - Online auction platforms are gaining traction, with special edition Wuliangye zodiac wines achieving significant sales, indicating a growing interest in collectible liquor [4][12]. Group 2: Trends and Market Significance - The auction market is experiencing a rationalization phase, moving away from speculative bubbles towards a focus on genuine consumption and collection [8][17]. - The contribution of spirits to auction sales has slightly decreased, indicating a cooling market, yet Moutai's market share has doubled, reflecting its status as a safe asset [8][17]. - The market is becoming more stratified, with high-value unique items at the top, reliable mainstream aged brands in the middle, and more liquid newer products at the bottom, enhancing price mechanisms [8][17]. Group 3: Strategic Implications for the Industry - The rationalization and diversification of the auction market provide strategic value benchmarks for companies, encouraging them to enhance their "old liquor strategies" to stabilize pricing and prepare for market recovery [9][18]. - The high performance of auctioned aged liquor supports narratives of value appreciation, motivating consumers to "store new liquor, drink old liquor," thus activating inventory turnover [9][18]. - As the auction market matures, the understanding of liquor value is evolving, incorporating cultural, investment, and social attributes into assessments [9][18].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant decline in the performance of Shede Liquor due to weak consumer demand and governance issues, leading to a drastic drop in stock price and market capitalization, with a focus on the company's failed high-end strategy and internal conflicts among stakeholders [1][4]. Financial Performance - Shede Liquor's revenue fell to 5.357 billion yuan in 2024, a 24% decrease, with gross margin dropping to 65.5%, the lowest in eight years, and net profit margin at only 6.35% compared to the industry average of 14.95% [1][2]. - The company's core product, "Taste Shede," suffered due to price wars, with mid-to-low-end products now accounting for 35% of sales, an increase of 8 percentage points from 2023 [1][2]. - The company experienced a significant increase in inventory turnover days from 356 to 939 days, with inventory reaching 5.219 billion yuan, constituting 70% of current assets [6][7]. Governance Issues - The governance structure is characterized by a power struggle between the controlling shareholder, Fosun Group, and local state-owned assets, leading to fragmented decision-making and strategic short-sightedness [4][9]. - The company has seen a significant increase in employee numbers (from 6,630 to 9,816, a 48% rise) but with low revenue per employee of 561,000 yuan, indicating inefficiency [2][6]. - The management's incentive structure has failed, with stock options set at low performance targets, resulting in a lack of accountability and a significant drop in net profit margin from 30.38% in 2023 to 6.35% in 2024 [3][6]. Strategic Failures - The company's high-end strategy has been ineffective, with continued price increases leading to excess inventory rather than sustainable growth [6][8]. - The company has engaged in non-core expansions, such as tourism projects, which have long payback periods and are seen as a means for local government to achieve performance metrics at the expense of shareholder value [12][13]. Stakeholder Dynamics - The relationship between Fosun Group and local state-owned assets has created a "benefit alliance," where both parties prioritize their interests over those of minority shareholders, leading to systemic neglect of their rights [9][10]. - Frequent related-party transactions have resulted in risk transfer and asset depletion, with the company becoming a platform for various interests rather than focusing on its core business [10][14]. Conclusion - Shede Liquor has become a platform for various stakeholders to extract value, with the need for a restructuring of governance mechanisms and a return to core operations to avoid further deterioration of the company's foundation [14][15].

Core Insights - The recent auction of aged Wuliangye liquor at Sotheby's in Hong Kong achieved a remarkable 100% sales rate, with all 133 bottles sold, highlighting the strong market demand for aged Chinese liquor [2][4] - The auction featured a limited edition Wuliangye 1909 artist series bottle that sold for 237,500 HKD, setting a record for the most expensive single bottle of Wuliangye sold at Sotheby's in Asia [2][6] - The success of these auctions reflects a broader trend in the aged liquor market, where the combination of clear provenance and complete vintage collections attracts high-end collectors [4][6] Auction Performance - The Sotheby's auction included Wuliangye bottles from 1977 to 2005, showcasing a well-preserved collection with a 70% original box retention rate, deemed the most complete vintage series in the last decade [2][4] - Following the Sotheby's auction, China Guardian's auction also reported strong sales, with two bottles of 30-year-old Wuliangye selling for 1.035 million and 920,000 RMB, contributing to a total sales figure of 4.49075 million RMB for the session [4][6] Market Trends - The thriving aged liquor market is positively impacting Wuliangye's overall product matrix, enhancing brand premium capabilities and fostering a culture of "drinking aged liquor and collecting new liquor" among high-end consumers [4][6] - Wuliangye's strategic collaboration with top international auction houses has positioned its products as global collectibles, marking a cultural milestone for Chinese brewing [6][8] Consumer Engagement - Since 2019, Wuliangye has implemented various initiatives to build a systematic value framework for aged liquor, including public appraisals and anti-counterfeiting measures [8] - The "Home with Aged Liquor" event in 2024 saw a 1971 vintage Wuliangye sell for 2 million RMB, further validating the high market recognition of aged Wuliangye [8] - Wuliangye's banquet sessions and bottle opening activities have shown double-digit growth in the first half of 2025, serving over 2.83 million consumers, indicating a solid position in the mainstream market [8]

Core Insights - The company is experiencing positive signals amidst the overall pressure in the liquor industry, with significant growth in its strategic product, T68, and innovative e-commerce channels [4][5][6] Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first three quarters, the company achieved operating revenue of 3.702 billion, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 472 million [5] - The company's ordinary liquor sales revenue increased by 16.46% year-on-year to 625 million, driven by the strong performance of T68 [5] - Operating costs decreased by 8.81% year-on-year, and management expenses fell by 13.07%, indicating improved operational efficiency [5] Group 2: Product Strategy - T68 has become a highlight for the company, ranking among the top three in the high-end light bottle liquor category in key markets [5] - The company is committed to its old liquor strategy while also expanding into new product categories, such as the 29-degree "Shede Zizai" and "Shede Blind Box" [5][6] - The product innovation strategy aims to create a clear product hierarchy and growth path, focusing on both existing and new markets [5][6] Group 3: E-commerce Growth - The e-commerce channel saw a significant revenue increase of 39.62% year-on-year, reaching 450 million in the first three quarters [5] - In the third quarter alone, e-commerce revenue surged by 71.4%, showcasing the company's differentiated approach in this channel [5] Group 4: Inventory Management - The company has proactively adjusted its strategies to improve channel inventory, leading to a healthier inventory situation [6] - The company plans to maintain its strategic focus on old liquor while advancing its multi-brand, youth-oriented, and international strategies [6]

Core Viewpoint - Shede Liquor is facing significant challenges including declining performance, channel imbalances, and tightening cash flow, raising questions about its ability to continue its national expansion strategy amidst a "not-so-strong peak season" [2][3]. Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, Shede Liquor reported revenue of 3.702 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17%, and a net profit of 472 million yuan, down 29.43% [3]. - The third quarter alone saw revenue of 1 billion yuan, a decline of 15.88%, and a net profit of 28.73 million yuan, plummeting 63.18%, marking the lowest quarterly profit since 2016 [3]. - The company’s cash flow from operating activities was -244 million yuan, a drop of 69.47%, with a net outflow of 312 million yuan in the third quarter [4]. Market Dynamics - Despite the overall decline, Shede Liquor's main product, T68, saw a sales increase of 16.46%, and e-commerce sales grew by 39.62% [10]. - However, the high-end liquor segment experienced a revenue drop of 23.96%, while ordinary liquor revenue increased by 16.46% [10]. - The overall gross margin fell to 64.73%, down 4.67 percentage points year-on-year, and the net profit margin decreased to 12.69% [10]. Distribution Challenges - The company has seen a significant exit of distributors, with 461 leaving this year, surpassing the total for 2024 [2][9]. - As of the end of the third quarter, the total number of distributors was 2,554, a decrease of 109 from the previous year [15]. - Inventory levels have risen, with a balance of 5.677 billion yuan at the end of the third quarter, an increase of 460 million yuan since the beginning of the year [16]. Management and Strategy - Since becoming controlled by the Fosun Group in late 2020, Shede Liquor has experienced frequent management changes, with over 20 high-level personnel changes in four years [18]. - The company has shifted its strategic focus multiple times, from high-end liquor to mass-market expansion, leading to instability in its long-term strategy [19]. - The management has announced plans to focus on "de-stocking, stabilizing prices, and promoting sales," while also leveraging e-commerce and live retail channels [20]. Regulatory and ESG Concerns - The company has faced scrutiny from regulators regarding the rationale behind significant investments in expansion amid declining revenues and production capacity [7]. - There have been controversies surrounding land acquisition and compensation issues related to its expansion projects, raising questions about the company's ESG practices [8].

Summary of Shede Liquor Industry Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Shede Liquor Industry - **Date**: November 1, 2025 Key Points Industry and Company Strategy - Shede Liquor adheres to four core strategies: aged liquor, multi-brand matrix, youth-oriented marketing, and internationalization [2][3][6] - Focus on high-end product structure, national product distribution, and brand internationalization without reducing market investment [2][3] - Implementation of a three-good pricing management system to stabilize prices and optimize channel costs [2][5] Financial Performance - As of Q3 2025, Shede Liquor reported revenue of 3.702 billion yuan and a net profit of 472 million yuan [3] - Significant growth in key products during the double festival season, with double-digit increases in sales and opening bottles [7] Market Dynamics - Positive performance in out-of-province markets, particularly in Shandong, with cities like Dezhou and Liaocheng showing over 50% growth year-on-year [9] - Strict control in the Henan market to maintain price stability, with expectations for gradual recovery in 2026 [10] Consumer Engagement and Marketing - Initiatives to engage younger demographics include establishing live streaming bases and expanding e-commerce efforts [4][5] - Launch of low-alcohol product "Shede Zizai" and innovative marketing strategies to attract new consumers [5][15] Inventory and Sales Management - Effective reduction of channel inventory through strict control of distributor shipments [8][22] - Anticipation of a healthier market state by the end of the year due to improved inventory management [8] Product Performance - Core products, especially premium offerings, saw approximately 50% growth in sales and opening amounts [13] - The T68 series outperformed other products, indicating strong consumer demand across various price segments [13] Future Outlook - The company expects challenges in the upcoming Spring Festival season but notes a gradual recovery in consumer confidence [11] - Emphasis on enhancing product quality without lowering prices to maintain brand value [18] E-commerce Strategy - E-commerce sales are expected to reach double-digit percentages, with a focus on reducing conflicts between online and offline sales [17] - Establishment of specialized teams to enhance e-commerce operations and capitalize on market opportunities [17] Distributor Management - The company has implemented a small and micro customer management project to support new distributors, particularly in weaker regions [20][21] - Stability among larger distributors remains intact, while smaller ones have been phased out due to performance volatility [19] Cost Management - Sales and management expenses have increased due to strategic investments and one-time costs, but overall efficiency is expected to improve [23] Long-term Incentives - Ongoing long-term incentive plans for employees, including stock options and employee shareholding programs [24] Regional Challenges - The decline in the Sichuan market is attributed to high inventory levels, prompting proactive inventory reduction measures [25] This summary encapsulates the key insights and strategic directions of Shede Liquor as discussed in the conference call, highlighting the company's resilience and proactive measures in a challenging market environment.

Core Viewpoint - The baijiu industry is undergoing a deep adjustment cycle in 2025, facing challenges such as weakened consumer demand, high channel inventory, and increased sales pressure. However, Shede Liquor has demonstrated resilience in its Q3 report, with revenue of 3.702 billion yuan and a net profit of 472 million yuan, indicating a narrowing revenue decline and a 1.49 percentage point increase in gross margin to 62.09% [2][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first three quarters, Shede Liquor achieved a revenue of 3.702 billion yuan and a net profit of 472 million yuan, reflecting a strong performance amid industry challenges [2][3]. - The company's gross margin improved to 62.09%, and management expenses decreased by 13.07% year-on-year, while operating costs fell by 8.81%, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [3]. - E-commerce sales reached 450 million yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of 39.62%, driven by the company's focus on traditional e-commerce and emerging channels like live streaming [3]. Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - Shede Liquor has adopted a dual strategy of "high-end pricing and mass market support," alongside explosive growth in e-commerce, to stabilize its market position and cultivate new growth engines [2][3]. - The launch of the low-alcohol product "Shede Zizai" has successfully tapped into new consumer scenarios, achieving over 12,000 orders in just 36 hours on JD.com, expanding the company's product boundaries [4]. - The company is committed to a long-term strategy focused on channel expansion and brand enhancement, aiming to build differentiated competitive advantages through diverse marketing initiatives and deep ESG practices [5]. Group 3: Brand and Market Development - Shede Liquor has enhanced its brand influence through cultural marketing and market activities, including collaborations with popular media and the launch of high-end co-branded products [6]. - The company has engaged in various marketing activities to deepen emotional connections with consumers, enhancing brand exposure and sales conversion [6]. - Shede Liquor has integrated ESG principles into its operations, gaining recognition in the sustainability sector, which strengthens its market position during the industry's recovery phase [6]. Group 4: Market Outlook - As of October 31, Shede Liquor's stock closed at 62.09 yuan per share, with a 5.29% increase, indicating positive market sentiment [7]. - With the upcoming consumption peak in Q4 and ongoing policies to boost domestic demand, the baijiu industry is expected to see a rebound, with Shede Liquor positioned to benefit from its strategic initiatives [7]. - The company's Q3 report highlights its adaptability and growth potential during industry adjustments, suggesting that its proactive strategies may lead to substantial performance returns as the market recovers [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Recommended" [1][5][11] Core Views - The company has experienced continuous adjustments in performance, with a notable highlight in its e-commerce channel [1][4] - The company reported a revenue of 3.7 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 17.0%, and a net profit of 470 million yuan, down 29.4% year-on-year [4] - The company is focusing on a clear product strategy, aiming for long-term growth potential despite current sales pressures in the liquor market [7][9] Financial Performance Summary - For 3Q25, the company achieved a revenue of 1.0 billion yuan, a decline of 15.9% year-on-year, with a net profit of 30 million yuan, down 63.2% year-on-year [4] - The company's gross margin for 3Q25 was 62.1%, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points year-on-year but an increase of 1.5 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [7] - The company’s revenue projections for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 4.8 billion yuan, 5.3 billion yuan, and 6.0 billion yuan respectively [7][9] Revenue and Profitability Forecast - The projected revenue for 2025 is 4.998 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 6.7% [6][9] - The net profit for 2025 is estimated at 478 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 38.3% compared to the previous year [6][9] - The company’s gross margin is expected to stabilize around 64.0% for 2025-2026 [6][9] Market Position and Strategy - The company is implementing a multi-brand strategy alongside a focus on product aging and internationalization to enhance growth potential [7][9] - E-commerce sales have shown significant growth, with a 71.4% increase year-on-year in 3Q25, indicating a shift in consumer purchasing behavior [7][9]

Core Insights - Shede Liquor achieved a revenue of 3.702 billion yuan and a net profit of 472 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, amidst a deep adjustment in the liquor industry [1] - The company actively reduced inventory and implemented strategies such as old liquor strategy, multi-brand matrix strategy, youth-oriented strategy, and internationalization strategy, resulting in several operational highlights [1] Revenue and Growth - In the first three quarters, ordinary liquor generated a revenue of 625 million yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 16.46%, with the strategic flagship product T68 continuing to experience rapid growth [2] - T68, launched in 2019, has become a new growth engine as it ranks among the top three in high-line bottled liquor categories in key markets [3] Product Innovation - The company launched a new product "马上有小酒" in September, priced at 98 yuan for a 100ml bottle, incorporating an innovative blind box concept [3] - In August, the company introduced the industry's first low-alcohol old liquor "舍得自在," priced at 329 yuan, leveraging advanced flavor selection technology [3] Market Strategy - The young drinking demographic presents significant potential, with a predicted market size of 4.9 billion for young drinkers in China [3] - Product innovation not only helps the company tap into the young drinking market but also reinforces its old liquor advantages and expands consumption scenarios [3] Channel Innovation - The company is accelerating its e-commerce channel layout starting in 2024, having established a deep strategic partnership with JD.com and collaborated with Meituan Shanguo [4] - The focus on e-commerce, ordinary liquor, and youth-oriented strategies has been the biggest highlight in operational performance for the first three quarters [4] Brand Strength - Shede Liquor's brand strength is a unique advantage, with its brands "Shede" and "Tuo Pai" being included in the "China's 500 Most Valuable Brands" for 22 consecutive years, with a total brand value of 190.698 billion yuan in 2025 [5] - The company has built a substantial old liquor inventory since 1976, which supports its old liquor strategy and enhances brand image through various marketing activities [5] Marketing and Promotion - The company participated in the 2025 Sustainable Global Leaders Conference and was recognized at the 2025 Responsibility China ESG Annual Ceremony for its commitment to ESG [5] - Collaborative marketing efforts, such as partnerships with popular programs and events, have enhanced brand visibility and sales [6][7]