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百利天恒(688506):WCLC上公布全球BIC数据,Iza-bren有望冲击一线市场
GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES· 2025-09-12 13:12
Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company [6]. Core Views - The report highlights the promising potential of the company's drug, Iza-bren, in first-line treatment for EGFRm NSCLC, supported by strong clinical data presented at the WCLC conference [3][17]. - The company is expected to see significant revenue growth in the coming years, with projected revenues of 22.66 billion, 23.35 billion, and 12.01 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [13][14]. - The target price for the company's stock is set at 500.68 yuan, reflecting a substantial upside based on the current market conditions [6]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to decline by 20.1% in 2023, followed by a dramatic increase of 936.3% in 2024, before experiencing a significant drop of 61.1% in 2025 [5]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be -780 million yuan in 2023, with a recovery to 3.708 billion yuan in 2024, followed by losses in subsequent years [5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be -1.95 yuan in 2023, improving to 9.25 yuan in 2024, and then declining again in the following years [5]. Clinical Data Highlights - Iza-bren has shown excellent efficacy in clinical trials, with an overall response rate (ORR) of 83.8% and a disease control rate (DCR) of 96.8% in first-line EGFRm NSCLC patients [18][24]. - The combination of Iza-bren and Osimertinib has demonstrated superior results compared to standard therapies, with a 12-month progression-free survival (PFS) rate of 92.1% [21][30]. - In the second-line treatment for EGFRm NSCLC, Iza-bren has shown an ORR of 57% and a median overall survival (OS) of 20.4 months, indicating strong competitive positioning in the market [34][37]. Market Position and Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the company will initiate several pivotal clinical trials in the next 12-18 months, which could further validate the efficacy of Iza-bren and enhance its market position [3][30]. - The competitive landscape for EGFRm NSCLC treatments is evolving, with Iza-bren positioned as a potential new standard of care based on its clinical performance [32][34].