机构：国元国际 研究员：林兴秋 【投资要点】 创新药塞络通胶囊研发推进顺利： 公司在中药创新研究成果显著，多项研究及临床项目进展顺利，2025 年上半年公司研发费用为人民币 5037 万元，占营收比例3.0%。Q-B-Q-F 浓缩丸、塞络通胶囊等在研产品稳步推进，创新药塞络通胶囊 已经完成III 期临床试验，目前正在整理法规要求所需要的数据和报告, 预计2026 年有望获得生产批文, 2027 年上市销售。塞络通胶囊是以现代创新技术研制而成的组分中药，是一种针对血管性痴呆的创新 中药，血管性痴呆是继阿尔茨海默病之后导致痴呆的第二大常见原因。预计2025 年中国老年痴呆患者 患者将突破1000 万人，目前尚无有效的治疗药物。市场空间广阔，将是重磅品种。 受集采等医药行业因素影响，业绩承压： 2025 年前三季度营业额为人民币24.15 亿元，同比减少16.3%。分品种：注射液产品：2025 年前三季度 营业额为人民币7.86 亿元，同比减少23.6%。 软胶囊产品：营业额为人民币3.37 亿元，同比减少13.7%。颗粒剂产品： 营业额为人民币3.91 亿元，同比减少14.5%。中药配方颗粒产品：营业额为人民币7 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating with a target price of HKD 10.04 per share, indicating a potential upside of 22% from the current price of HKD 8.23 [1][4][11]. Core Insights - The innovative drug Seletong Capsule is progressing well in development, having completed Phase III clinical trials and expected to receive production approval in 2026, with market potential targeting vascular dementia, which currently lacks effective treatments [2][6][7]. - The company faced revenue pressure due to industry factors such as centralized procurement, leading to a 16.3% year-on-year decline in revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 [3][8]. - Despite revenue challenges, the company has improved its net profit margin from 30.0% to 37.2% due to reduced sales and distribution costs [3][9]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at RMB 38.4 billion, RMB 41.1 billion, and RMB 46.0 billion, respectively, with net profits expected to be RMB 9.29 billion, RMB 10.11 billion, and RMB 11.38 billion [4][11]. - The company’s gross margin decreased from 75.3% to 72.2% due to rising raw material costs and pricing pressures from centralized procurement [3][8]. - The company maintains a dividend yield of 6.1%, reflecting its commitment to returning value to shareholders [4][11].