机构：国元国际 研究员：林兴秋 【投资要点】 创新药塞络通胶囊研发推进顺利： 公司在中药创新研究成果显著，多项研究及临床项目进展顺利，2025 年上半年公司研发费用为人民币 5037 万元，占营收比例3.0%。Q-B-Q-F 浓缩丸、塞络通胶囊等在研产品稳步推进，创新药塞络通胶囊 已经完成III 期临床试验，目前正在整理法规要求所需要的数据和报告, 预计2026 年有望获得生产批文, 2027 年上市销售。塞络通胶囊是以现代创新技术研制而成的组分中药，是一种针对血管性痴呆的创新 中药，血管性痴呆是继阿尔茨海默病之后导致痴呆的第二大常见原因。预计2025 年中国老年痴呆患者 患者将突破1000 万人，目前尚无有效的治疗药物。市场空间广阔，将是重磅品种。 受集采等医药行业因素影响，业绩承压： 2025 年前三季度营业额为人民币24.15 亿元，同比减少16.3%。分品种：注射液产品：2025 年前三季度 营业额为人民币7.86 亿元，同比减少23.6%。 软胶囊产品：营业额为人民币3.37 亿元，同比减少13.7%。颗粒剂产品： 营业额为人民币3.91 亿元，同比减少14.5%。中药配方颗粒产品：营业额为人民币7 ...

来源：智通财经网 国元国际指出，塞络通胶囊是以现代创新技术研制而成的组分中药，是一种针对血管性痴呆的创新中 药，血管性痴呆是继阿尔茨海默病之后导致痴呆的第二大常见原因。预计2025年中国老年痴呆患者患者 将突破1000万人，目前尚无有效的治疗药物，塞络通胶囊市场空间广阔，未来将是重磅品种。 神威药业(02877)涨超3%，截至发稿，涨3.15%，报8.51港元，成交额1048.84万港元。 国元国际发布研报称，神威药业在中药创新研究成果显著，多项研究及临床项目进展顺利，2025年上半 年公司研发费用为人民币5037 万元，占营收比例3.0%。Q-B-Q-F浓缩丸、塞络通胶囊等在研产品稳步推 进，创新药塞络通胶囊已经完成III期临床试验，目前正在整理法规要求所需要的数据和报告，预计2026 年获得生产批文， 2027年上市销售。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，神威药业(02877)涨超3%，截至发稿，涨3.15%，报8.51港元，成交额1048.84万港 元。 国元国际指出，塞络通胶囊是以现代创新技术研制而成的组分中药，是一种针对血管性痴呆的创新中 药，血管性痴呆是继阿尔茨海默病之后导致痴呆的第二大常见原因。预计2025年中国老年痴呆患者患者 将突破1000万人，目前尚无有效的治疗药物，塞络通胶囊市场空间广阔，未来将是重磅品种。 国元国际发布研报称，神威药业在中药创新研究成果显著，多项研究及临床项目进展顺利，2025年上半 年公司研发费用为人民币5037 万元，占营收比例3.0%。Q-B-Q-F浓缩丸、塞络通胶囊等在研产品稳步推 进，创新药塞络通胶囊已经完成III期临床试验，目前正在整理法规要求所需要的数据和报告，预计2026 年获得生产批文， 2027年上市销售。 ...

神威药业(02877)涨超3%，截至发稿，涨3.15%，报8.51港元，成交额1048.84万港元。 国元国际指出，塞络通胶囊是以现代创新技术研制而成的组分中药，是一种针对血管性痴呆的创新中 药，血管性痴呆是继阿尔茨海默病之后导致痴呆的第二大常见原因。预计2025年中国老年痴呆患者患者 将突破1000万人，目前尚无有效的治疗药物，塞络通胶囊市场空间广阔，未来将是重磅品种。 国元国际发布研报称，神威药业在中药创新研究成果显著，多项研究及临床项目进展顺利，2025年上半 年公司研发费用为人民币5037万元，占营收比例3.0%。Q-B-Q-F浓缩丸、塞络通胶囊等在研产品稳步推 进，创新药塞络通胶囊已经完成III期临床试验，目前正在整理法规要求所需要的数据和报告，预计2026 年获得生产批文，2027年上市销售。 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating with a target price of HKD 10.04 per share, indicating a potential upside of 22% from the current price of HKD 8.23 [1][4][11]. Core Insights - The innovative drug Seletong Capsule is progressing well in development, having completed Phase III clinical trials and expected to receive production approval in 2026, with market potential targeting vascular dementia, which currently lacks effective treatments [2][6][7]. - The company faced revenue pressure due to industry factors such as centralized procurement, leading to a 16.3% year-on-year decline in revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 [3][8]. - Despite revenue challenges, the company has improved its net profit margin from 30.0% to 37.2% due to reduced sales and distribution costs [3][9]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at RMB 38.4 billion, RMB 41.1 billion, and RMB 46.0 billion, respectively, with net profits expected to be RMB 9.29 billion, RMB 10.11 billion, and RMB 11.38 billion [4][11]. - The company’s gross margin decreased from 75.3% to 72.2% due to rising raw material costs and pricing pressures from centralized procurement [3][8]. - The company maintains a dividend yield of 6.1%, reflecting its commitment to returning value to shareholders [4][11].

展望中医药板块后市，中信建投在近日发布的研报中指出，中药行业短期基数压力有望缓解，渠道库存 加速出清，看好年底需求回暖，及后续基本面和估值改善机会；创新领域有助构建第二增长曲线，中药 消费品公司品牌延展空间广阔。信达证券认为，2025年三季度部分中药标的已呈现收入、盈利改善趋 势，秋冬季流感爬坡或助力业绩放量；基药目录调整有望催化新一轮中医药行情。华金证券则提出，把 握中药板块 "精品+创新"两大主线。1.精品中药兼具医疗价值与消费属性，品牌效应明显，对应高净值 客户，议价能力较强；2.创新中药在利好政策的支持与外部环境正向刺激下正在逐渐迎来收获期，中药 改良型新药、古代经典名方等中药创新药有望持续以临床为导向加速研制，并实现商业化放量。（券商 中国） ...

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Yuan Da Pharmaceutical Group has successfully completed the Phase II clinical trial of its innovative traditional Chinese medicine GPN01360 for treating depression, marking significant progress in the company's product development in the otolaryngology sector [1][2]. - The Chinese depression medication market is projected to grow from approximately 9.7 billion yuan in 2024 to 14.3 billion yuan by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate of 8.1% [1]. - GPN01360 is a Class 1.1 innovative traditional Chinese medicine based on the classic formula "Xiao Yao San," consisting of 12 herbal ingredients, aimed at alleviating symptoms of depression [1]. Group 2 - Positive clinical trial data for GPN01360 lays a foundation for further research and aims to address the issue of poor patient compliance associated with side effects of existing Western medications, potentially improving long-term treatment effectiveness [2]. - The Chinese government has introduced multiple policies to encourage the innovation and development of traditional Chinese medicine, including a directive from the State Council to enhance support for traditional medicine research and innovation [2][3]. - Yuan Da Pharmaceutical is strategically expanding its traditional Chinese medicine offerings beyond otolaryngology to include chronic disease treatment areas such as cardiovascular and neurological conditions, reflecting a shift towards a comprehensive chronic disease treatment strategy [3].

智通财经APP获悉，国产抗抑郁症药物研发取得重大进展。近日，远大医药(00512)的1.1类中药创新药GPN01360国内II期临床研究成功达到临床终点，产品 表现出显著疗效和安全性优势，有望成为我国抑郁症患者的新治疗选择，并为全球抑郁症治疗贡献中国力量。 这一重要成果，标志着远大医药已在中医药现代化领域迈出重要一步，也是公司在中成药方向的重大里程碑进展。未来GPN01360若成功上市，不仅将丰富 公司的产品管线，还可推动业务格局的进一步升级，助力公司将中成药领域的优势拓展至心脑血管慢病及神经内科领域，覆盖更广泛的患者群体，从而为公 司打造新的业绩增长引擎。 经典方剂创新升级，剑指近百亿元抑郁症治疗市场 抑郁症是一种常见且复发率高达75%-90%的精神类疾病，常导致患者情绪低落、兴趣减弱，严重时可导致自杀，极大影响患者的工作和社会生活，也被称为 人类精神健康的"隐形杀手"。 因患者规模庞大且社会影响高，抑郁症已成为全球第四大疾病，也是全球范围内全因伤残引起的健康寿命损失年(years lived with disability，YLDs)的第二大 因素。该病症已困扰全球约3.32亿人，每年可导致近1万亿美元的 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the active performance of the traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) sector, particularly in the context of the flu season, with the TCM ETF (560080) rising nearly 1% and experiencing a significant increase in trading volume [1][3] - Recent data from the CDC indicates that the positive rate of flu virus tests in emergency departments nationwide has approached 45%, with some regions experiencing high levels of flu activity, leading to a surge in sales of cold-related medications [3][10] - The TCM ETF (560080) has seen a net inflow of over 24 million yuan as of November 28, with its latest scale reaching 2.581 billion yuan, leading its peers in the same category [1][3] Group 2 - The performance of individual stocks within the TCM ETF has been notable, with several flu-related stocks experiencing significant gains, such as Guangdong Wannianqing hitting the daily limit and Tai Long Pharmaceutical rising over 6% [3][4] - The TCM ETF's index has a TTM price-to-earnings ratio of 24.86, indicating it is cheaper than 79% of the time over the past decade, suggesting a favorable valuation for potential investment [5] - The TCM index has shown negative returns year-to-date, with a decline of 2.24% in 2023, and a historical trend of alternating between gains and losses over the past several years [7][8] Group 3 - The TCM industry is expected to see a short-term easing of pressure due to inventory clearance, with a positive outlook for demand recovery towards the end of the year [10] - Recent price governance initiatives across various regions aim to create a more unified and competitive market for TCM products, focusing on high-priced traditional Chinese medicines [10][11] - The ongoing price governance and centralized procurement processes are likely to reshape competition in the industry, favoring companies with strong clinical value, cost control, and market coverage capabilities [11]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company with a target price of 16.60 CNY, compared to the current price of 11.45 CNY [5][12]. Core Insights - The company focuses on innovative traditional Chinese medicine, particularly in cardiovascular, musculoskeletal, and pediatric medication categories. It has been gradually divesting from non-core medical businesses, leading to rapid hospital admissions for key products post-collection [2][12]. - The company has successfully launched three Class 1 innovative traditional Chinese medicines, ranking among the top in the country for approved quantities. The commercial promotion of these innovative medicines is actively progressing, with significant coverage in public medical institutions [12]. - Despite short-term revenue pressure from collection policies, the company is expected to see a rebound in revenue growth in the coming years, particularly in its core cardiovascular medication segment [12]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to be 1,629 million CNY in 2023, increasing to 2,020 million CNY by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 9% [4][13]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to rise from 187 million CNY in 2023 to 427 million CNY in 2027, reflecting a significant growth trajectory [4][13]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to grow from 0.43 CNY in 2023 to 0.97 CNY in 2027, indicating a strong performance outlook [4][13]. Revenue Breakdown - The cardiovascular medication segment is expected to generate revenues of 5.94 billion CNY in 2025, with a growth rate of 12% [15]. - The musculoskeletal medication segment is projected to maintain stable revenues, while pediatric medication is expected to face challenges with a projected decline in revenue [16]. - The report anticipates a decline in revenues from gynecological and anti-infection medications, while other business segments are expected to show modest growth [16][17].