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利好来袭!英伟达 H20 出货或恢复,这些 AI 供应链企业将受益
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-07-17 13:46
Group 1: Core Insights - Nvidia is expected to resume shipments of H20 GPUs to China, which will positively impact China's data center, public cloud industry, and major semiconductor companies like Montage Technology [1] - Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang confirmed the submission of applications for the resumption of H20 GPU shipments during his visit to Beijing [1] - The introduction of a new compliance RTX PRO GPU tailored for smart factories and logistics was announced, which may reduce supply uncertainties for Chinese customers [1] Group 2: Data Center Impact - If the U.S. government grants H20 shipment licenses soon, Chinese internet companies and cloud service providers (CSPs) may quickly fulfill their backlog of orders, accelerating server deployment [2] - Major data center tenants, such as GDS and VNET, are expected to see increased capacity utilization by Q3 and Q4 of 2025 due to the availability of more GPUs [2] - The new compliance GPU is anticipated to support the recovery of data center orders from 2025 onwards [2] Group 3: Public Cloud Growth - The availability of Nvidia GPUs will enhance public cloud service providers' AI computing capabilities, potentially leading to revenue growth in AI-related cloud services [3] - Montage Technology's PCIe Retimer domestic shipments are increasing, which is crucial for maintaining signal integrity in AI servers, thus driving demand for these components [3] - The resumption of H20 shipments and the new compliance GPU are expected to boost the domestic AI server market [3] Group 4: Company Ratings and Price Targets - GDS Holdings has a target price of $44.0 based on a 12-month forward EV/EBITDA multiple of 15x, reflecting the average of Chinese public data center REITs [4][5] - Montage Technology's target price is set at 96 RMB, using a DCF valuation method with a WACC of 9% and a terminal growth rate of 3% [6] - VNET has a target price of $11.3, based on a 12-month forward expected EV/EBITDA multiple of 14x, consistent with the valuation of Chinese public data center REITs [7]