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【招银研究|行业深度】AI应用之人形机器人:AI的“具身”时刻
招商银行研究· 2025-09-25 09:48
Core Insights - Humanoid robots exhibit significant industrial adaptation potential compared to traditional specialized robots, with advantages in infrastructure compatibility, data accumulation, resource collaboration, and social acceptance [2][6][15] - The humanoid robot market is projected to reach an annual shipment of 5 million units and a market size exceeding 400 billion yuan by 2035 [2][11][13] Industry Drivers - Policy support in China has increased significantly, with a series of robot-related policies enhancing the industry's development [16][18] - The labor market in China is facing a dual impact of quantity reduction and quality transformation, creating a rigid demand for humanoid robots [20][24] - Active capital markets are accelerating technological iterations, becoming a key driver for the humanoid robot industry [28] - Technological advancements, including reduced costs of large model training and accelerated resource integration, are expected to enable breakthroughs in manufacturing, healthcare, and service sectors [15][33] Industry Chain Readiness - The humanoid robot's brain consists of AI chips and algorithms for decision-making, while the motor control is managed by controllers and motion control algorithms [3][39] - Key components include actuators, sensors, and precision parts, which are essential for the robot's functionality [3][53] China's Position in the Global Market - China has established a leading advantage in patent layout and product launches in the humanoid robot sector [3][16] - The country is expected to lead in reducing costs for humanoid robot hardware and software, driven by an enhanced supply chain and competitive AI pricing [3][16] - By 2035, China's humanoid robot market is projected to reach a shipment of 2 million units and a market size close to 1400 billion yuan [13][15] Development Stages of Humanoid Robots - The development of humanoid robots has progressed through four stages: exploration, integration, dynamic movement, and AI-driven commercialization [8][9][11] - The current stage is characterized by significant advancements in AI capabilities, enabling robots to perform complex tasks and adapt to various environments [9][33] Market Forecast - Global humanoid robot shipments are expected to reach 1.24 million units by 2025, with a market size of approximately 63.39 billion yuan [11][12] - By 2030, shipments are projected to approach 340,000 units, with a market size exceeding 640 billion yuan [11][12] Challenges and Opportunities - The humanoid robot industry faces challenges such as the need for high-quality training data and the ability to generalize across diverse environments [52] - The integration of generative AI is seen as a core driver for the commercial application of humanoid robots, enhancing their adaptability and functionality [33][47]