更多资料加入知识星球:水木调研纪要 关注公众号:水木纪要 机器人行情复盘,对主题行情的启示 20260104 摘要 Q&A 本周的核心观点是什么? 对于机器人行业,您有哪些复盘结论? 机器人行业从 2022年7月起经历了 8 轮大级别行情,每一轮都有强劲的持续性。 最高的一轮发生在 2024年底至 2025年初,这段时间国产链与替链共振,25个 标的涨幅超过 250%,其中 20个标的涨幅超过 300%,7个标的涨幅超过 400%。相 比之下,商业航天目前仅有少数几个标的涨幅超过 400%。 商业航天与机器人行业在市场容量上有何对比? 机器人行业常规容量为100万台,对应单台价值量 15 万到 20 万,总市场规模约 1,500 亿到2000亿。而商业航天方面,以火箭发射和卫星带星量计算,一年的 市场规模也在 2000 亿左右。因此,从中期维度来看,两者市场容量相似。 未来两年这两个赛道有哪些催化剂? 2026年,机器人赛道将迎来特斯拉 Optimus 部门的大合照、V3 发布及多个大容 量机器人的上市等催化剂。而商业航天方面,将有算力星发射及 IPO等重要事件。 此外,国内也将在一季度和二季度进行多次重要发 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 2026 Consumer Electronics Show (CES) is anticipated to showcase significant advancements in technology, particularly in AI, robotics, and consumer electronics, with a focus on cost reduction and efficiency improvements [7][10]. Group 1: Chip Industry Strategies - NVIDIA is shifting its focus away from traditional consumer graphics cards, emphasizing "Physical AI" to extend AI computing capabilities into robotics and industrial applications, with potential delays in the RTX 50 Super series due to high GDDR7 memory prices [8][14]. - AMD is adopting a steady upgrade strategy, planning to launch the Ryzen 9000 series for desktops and Ryzen AI 400 series for mobile devices, targeting workstation users with advanced features [14]. - Intel is set to release the Core Ultra Series 3, which includes approximately 14 SKUs, with the flagship model featuring 16 cores and a maximum frequency of 5.1GHz, aiming to regain market confidence in its advanced manufacturing capabilities [14]. Group 2: Robotics and AI Developments - 2026 is seen as a pivotal year for humanoid robots, with a focus on practical applications and real-world testing [10]. - The competition among countries in robotics is intensifying, with China focusing on cost control and mass production, while the U.S. showcases technological benchmarks through companies like Boston Dynamics [15]. - South Korea is forming alliances to enhance its robotics capabilities, exemplified by the "K-Humanoid" alliance led by Rainbow Robotics, showcasing industrial-grade humanoid robots [15]. Group 3: XR and Consumer Electronics - The XR market is currently in a digestion phase following the release of Apple Vision Pro, with CES 2026 expected to mark the beginning of a counterattack from the Android camp [12]. - Samsung is debuting the Galaxy XR glasses, which integrate advanced AI features and aim to compete with Apple's ecosystem [16]. - Chinese companies are leading the trend of lightweight AI glasses, with products like the Quark AI Glasses S1 and Rokid Glasses focusing on practical applications such as real-time translation and AR navigation [16]. Group 4: Automotive Industry Innovations - The automotive sector is transitioning from "software-defined" to "AI-defined," with a competitive arms race in chip technology [13][21]. - Companies like Geely and Great Wall are showcasing innovations in vehicle architecture, while BMW is presenting its iX3 based on the Neue Klasse architecture, integrating advanced technologies [21]. Group 5: Display and Hardware Innovations - Lenovo is introducing innovative hardware solutions, including AI-driven automatic rotating screens and rollable laptops, addressing the balance between large displays and portability [22]. - Display technology advancements are highlighted by TCL and Hisense, focusing on Mini-LED technology and AI image processing capabilities to enhance picture quality [22].

温馨提示 ： 点击下方图片，查看运营团队最新（12月）原创报告（共260页） 说明： 欢迎约稿、刊例合作、行业交流 ， 行业交流记得先加入 "机器人头条"知识星球 ，后添加（ 微信号：lietou100w ）微 信； 若有侵权、改稿请联系编辑运营（微信：li_sir_2020）； 正文： 一语成阙，还真是这7家！ Optimus V3将至，T链们在2025年年终迎来主升行情， 2026年 T链首个"利好"小作文，来了！ 目前机器人板块核心催化来自于特斯拉Optimus，T链是现阶段人形机器人产业链绝对主角；对于仍处于炒预期 的T链们，相关利好备受二级市场关注，尤其在 特斯拉发包之际、核心T链标的陆续前往北美沟通等关键节点上。 " 特斯拉Optimus Gen3量产审核已结束，7家国内公司成为特斯拉机器人Tier1供应商 。"该则资讯于1月1日发 布后瞬间刷屏行业圈，并在2日迅速发酵。 小编昨日有针对该资讯发文（ 文章 ）进行证伪，表示"出口转内销"无疑；同时表示：该资讯与12月8日特斯拉审 厂名单似乎形成闭环；12月8日午前，一份 不知出处的已通过审厂并拿到订单名单流传行业圈，同样也是7家 （LS、SH、TP ...

哈喽，大家好，小圆今天就跟大家聊聊最近A股市场的一个奇特现象，一边是上证指数创下近两年罕见 的十连阳，沪深两市成交额连续多日站稳2万亿关口，机器人概念板块更是迎来116亿资金净流入，十余 只个股集体涨停，龙头锋龙股份直接拿下五连板。 另一边却是全市场超上千只个股下跌，多数投资者体感与指数表现严重脱节，这就产生了一个核心疑 问：为啥在市场分化如此剧烈的情况下，机器人行情能疯得这么彻底？ 指数连阳的底气 十连阳这种罕见走势大概率是技术性反弹，这背后其实是政策定力与资金共识形成的双重合力，绝非偶 然，从政策层面来看，近期市场正处于难得的政策蜜月期，中央经济工作会议定调稳中求进，一系列稳 增长、促消费的政策陆续落地。 这种政策的连续性和确定性有效稳住了市场预期，让投资者对经济中长期向好有了更足的信心，更关键 的是资金层面的支撑，这也是指数能保持韧性的核心原因，连续多日突破2万亿的成交额，说明市场活 跃度和参与热情一点没减，只是资金流向变得更加集中。 值得注意的是，以保险资金、社保基金为代表的长期配置型资金正在成为市场的压舱石，小圆觉得，这 些长钱基于对中国经济的长期信心进行左侧布局，不仅封杀了指数的深度调整空间，更给 ...

1月2日消息，港股三大指数高开高走。截至收盘，恒生指数涨2.76%，报26338.47点，恒生科技指数涨 4%，国企指数涨2.86%。盘面上，科网股全线上涨，百度涨超9%，网易涨超6%，阿里巴巴、腾讯涨超 4%，快手、京东、联想、哔哩哔哩涨超3%，小米涨超2%；电力设备股大涨，金风科技涨超20%；半导 体板块强势，华虹半导体涨超9%；机器人概念继续走高，力劲科技涨超6%；壁仞科技首日盘中一度涨 超118%。 机器人概念继续走高，力劲科技涨超6%。近期市场有传闻称，供应商陆续在北美拜访，特斯拉Optimus 发包在即，市场已经开始预热。银河证券发布研报称，特斯拉Optimus第三代机器人预期2026年发布， 预计明年量产数万台，近期产业链交流频繁，量产、定价、审厂定点等确定性事件临近。 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 壁仞科技上市首日涨超75%，盘中一度涨超118%。壁仞科技此次IPO发行价定为每股19.60港元，全球发 售2.848亿股，募资总额约55.83亿港元，成为香港上市规则18C章节实施以来募资规模最大的特专科技 项目。其公开发售部分获得空前追捧，录得2347.53倍 ...

Core Insights - The year 2025 marks a significant "paradigm shift" in the global business landscape, transitioning from visions of AI, consumption, and geopolitics into practical industrial applications [1][40]. Group 1: AI and Technology Developments - DeepSeek's emergence and Manus's $1 billion sale to Meta signify a pivotal moment in China's AI technology sector, reducing reliance on foreign models and initiating a trend towards open-source large models [2][41]. - The rapid competition in the AI field has led to numerous emerging competitors for DeepSeek, including Doubao, Qianwen, Lingguang, and Antifufu, alongside established players like Baidu and Kimi [4][43]. - AI models have evolved from mere chat tools to autonomous decision-making agents, with companies shifting from "buying models" to "nurturing agents" for task execution [6][45]. Group 2: Economic and Market Trends - The low-altitude economy in China is projected to exceed 1.5 trillion yuan, with cities like Shenzhen and Guangzhou pioneering eVTOL urban routes and drone deliveries becoming standard for logistics giants [8][46]. - The year 2025 is recognized as the year of humanoid robots entering factories, with significant orders surpassing 10,000 units, indicating a shift from experimental technology to industrial-grade products [10][49]. - Global trade dynamics are shifting, with the normalization of tariff battles between the US and Europe against Chinese electric vehicles and solar industries, prompting a "global localization" strategy among Chinese firms [12][51]. - The introduction of solid-state batteries in China, including the first national standards, addresses electric vehicle charging anxieties and strengthens China's position in the global renewable energy value chain [13][52]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Cultural Shifts - The establishment of the Hainan Free Trade Port marks a critical step in China's institutional openness, attracting global capital and talent [15][54]. - The rise of the "silver economy" in response to China's aging population is expected to create a trillion-yuan market for elder care products and services [28][67]. - The backlash against high-priced pre-made dishes, highlighted by public figures like Luo Yonghao, reflects a growing consumer demand for transparency and value, signaling the end of the "arrogant brand era" [24][63]. - The decline of the Labubu toy series from a speculative investment to a more accessible product illustrates a shift in consumer sentiment towards value-driven purchases [29][72]. Group 4: Capital and Investment Trends - The focus of global capital is shifting from generic large models to investments in "sovereign AI" infrastructure, with data centers becoming strategic national assets [16][57]. - Starbucks' decision to sell part of its Chinese operations to local investors signifies the end of the era where foreign brands dominated the market solely through globalization [34][73].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market shows a mixed trend with the robotics sector under pressure, yet there is a significant inflow of funds into the robotics ETF fund (159213), indicating investor confidence despite market fluctuations [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of 14:25, the robotics ETF fund (159213) experienced a decline of 0.41%, marking its first pullback after five consecutive days of gains [1]. - The fund saw a net inflow of over 33 million yuan during the day, contributing to a total net inflow of nearly 100 million yuan over the past four days [1]. Group 2: Component Stocks - The top ten component stocks of the robotics ETF fund show mixed performance, with notable gains from Keda Xunfei (2.70%) and Zhongkong Technology (1.27%), while Huichuan Technology and Dazhu Laser both fell over 1% [2][4]. Group 3: Industry Developments - The robotics sector is experiencing a significant boost, with rumors of an upcoming administrative order on robotics expected in 2026, and suppliers actively engaging in North America [3]. - The year 2025 is highlighted as a pivotal year for robotics, with strong initial growth followed by adjustments and renewed interest due to events like the World Robot Conference [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The robotics ETF fund manager indicates substantial advancements in mass production, with companies like UBTECH and ZhiYuan set to achieve significant production milestones by 2025 [6]. - The industry is expected to see a surge in human-like robots, with projections indicating that domestic sales could exceed 10,000 units in 2026, driven by technological advancements and commercial viability [7].

Market Overview - The market experienced a continuous pre-holiday rally, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving ten consecutive gains, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index both rose over 0.5% during the session [1][13] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.14 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.2 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1][13] A-share Outlook - Several favorable factors are expected to support the performance of A-shares in the coming year, including a marginal improvement in manufacturing driven by "anti-involution," global liquidity easing, and a low interest rate environment encouraging institutional and individual investors to enter the market [1][13] - Investors are advised to focus on broad-based products like the CSI A500 ETF (159338) that bundle leading companies across various industries, and consider a "barbell" strategy combining technology and dividends as a satellite strategy [1][13] Gold and Precious Metals - The gold ETF (518800) fell by 2.05% due to overnight market fluctuations, although long-term support for gold prices remains strong from factors such as interest rate cuts, de-dollarization, and geopolitical tensions [3][16] - Recent volatility in precious metal prices was influenced by a significant rise in silver prices, which briefly surpassed $84 per ounce, marking a nearly 10% increase from the previous week's closing price [3][16] - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange raised silver futures margins by 25% to address recent volatility, potentially forcing leveraged traders to partially liquidate positions [4][17] Robotics Sector - The robotics sector saw a notable increase, with the Robotics Industry ETF (159551) rising by 3.20% and the Industrial Mother Machine ETF (159667) increasing by 2.23% [6][18] - The growth in this sector is attributed to robotics being the ultimate carrier of AI, with expectations of significant developments in the U.S.-China competition landscape [6][19] - Tesla's upcoming V3 version is anticipated to evolve towards lightweight, compact, and highly integrated designs, with mass production expected to commence in Q1 next year [6][19] Chemical Industry - The chemical sector performed well, with the Chemical Leaders ETF (516220) rising by 1.79% [7][22] - PX prices have been increasing due to tight supply driven by rising demand for upstream toluene/xylene and the impact of downstream polyester filament and BOPET [8][22] - The polyester industry chain shows strong potential for "anti-involution," supported by nearing capacity limits, sustained demand growth, and high market share among leading companies [9][23]

【解剖大盘】 今天是港股期结日，午后出现一波拉升，显示多头情绪占优，收盘涨 0.86%。 外交部发言人宣布：韩国总统李在明将于 2026 年 1 月 4 日至 7 日对中国进行国事访问。从泰柬边境冲 突缓和到韩国来访，亚太地区依旧稳定。 资金涌入拉升汇率，12 月 30 日，在岸人民币兑美元升破 7.0 关口，最高触及 6.9960，涨幅达 0.1%，创 2023 年 5 月 17 日以来最高水平。主要受外资流入、经济增长复苏预期以及科技板块乐观情绪支撑。汇 率拉升同时，股市也同步跟进。 对于解放军东部战区"正义使命-2025"演习，特朗普在美国佛罗里达州对记者表示，他并不担心台海周 边局势，自己与中方关系很好，相信中方不会对台开展军事行动。 这种表态已经很明确，美国收缩回北美，亚太已经无暇顾及，重点方向在于自家后花园。当地时间 12 月 30 日，媒体援引知情人士消息称，受特朗普政府封锁施压，委内瑞拉国有炼油厂陷入储油空间耗 尽、库存持续积压的困境，该国国家石油公司(PDVSA)已于 12 月28 日启动境内部分油井的关停工作。 这势必引发石油供给的紧张，中海油(00883)、上海石油化工(00338)、中 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market experienced significant net selling from northbound capital, totaling HKD 38.45 billion, with notable net selling in major stocks like Tencent and China Mobile, while stocks like SMIC and CNOOC saw net buying [1][5]. Group 1: Northbound Capital Flow - Northbound capital had a net selling of HKD 38.45 billion on December 30, with HKD 13.27 billion from the Shanghai Stock Connect and HKD 25.18 billion from the Shenzhen Stock Connect [1]. - The stocks with the highest net buying included SMIC (00981), CNOOC (00883), and ICBC (01398) [1]. - The stocks with the highest net selling included the Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (02800), Tencent (00700), and China Mobile (00941) [1]. Group 2: Individual Stock Performance - SMIC saw a net inflow of HKD 3.49 billion, with a total transaction volume of HKD 35.17 billion [2]. - CNOOC received a net buying of HKD 4.6 billion, with analysts noting a potential stabilization in oil prices due to seasonal demand and OPEC+ production adjustments [5]. - ICBC had a net inflow of HKD 3.56 billion, supported by expectations of stable credit growth in 2026 [5]. Group 3: Sector Trends - The semiconductor sector is gaining attention, with SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor receiving significant net buying, driven by positive market sentiment and government support [4]. - The robotics sector is also attracting investment, with stocks like Sihai Intelligent Control and UBTECH Robotics seeing net inflows, amid expectations of upcoming projects in North America [5]. - The technology sector showed mixed results, with Meituan (03690) experiencing net buying, while Alibaba (09988) and Tencent faced substantial net selling [6]. Group 4: Market Sentiment - The market sentiment remains cautious, with analysts suggesting that while there may be short-term opportunities, the overall environment is still under pressure, particularly for the Hong Kong market [7]. - The Tracker Fund of Hong Kong faced significant net selling, indicating a potential lack of confidence in the broader market [7].