联合研究丨行业深度 [Table_Title] CJSC 人形机器人系列指数："具身"启新程， "人形"创未来——另类视角看行业 II %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2026 年中央广播电视总台春节联欢晚会成为了具身智能与人形机器人产业跨越式发展的历史 性见证。这场被业界与海内外媒体誉为"史上硬核浓度最高"的晚会，不仅是一场面向全球华 人的文化盛宴，更演变为中国智能制造与机器人产业链的全景阅兵。随着产业跨越"1-10"的 拐点，基于产业研究发布专业的人形机器人指数已具备极高的迫切性与以下战略意义：1）确立 估值锚点与投资风向标；2）引导资本向核心"卡脖子"环节集聚；3）匹配"十五五"国家战 略导向。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 陈洁敏 王鹤涛 马太 SAC：S0490518120005 SAC：S0490512070002 SAC：S0490516100002 SFC：BUT348 SFC：BQT626 SFC：BUT911 邬博华 赵智勇 高伊楠 SAC：S0490514040001 SAC：S ...

1）端到端神经网络——技术栈全链路自研、高上限：打造"像素到控制"单 一端到端神经网络实现感知、规划、决策、执行全闭环自主控制，无模块间信 息损耗，复杂场景决策响应速度达 120 毫秒接近人类水平； 2） 自 主 可 控 的 算 力 硬 件 — — 模 型 训 练 效 率 领 先 ： 布 局 AI 芯 片 研 发 （AI5/AI6），计划建设 Terafab 晶圆厂，整合逻辑芯片、内存与封装生产，搭配 Dojo 3 超级计算机，实现模型训练效率数倍提升； 浙江荣泰(603119) 报告日期：2026 年 02 月 26 日 特斯拉 Optimus 有望重塑行业天花板，看好公司大客户卡位优势 ——浙江荣泰点评报告 投资要点 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 汽车零部件 3）影子模式——海量真实数据复用：依托全球 700 万辆车队"影子模式"，运 算了超过 30 亿英里（约合 48.3 亿公里）的驾驶里程，每天特斯拉自动驾驶研 发团队都会收到大量的案例，自动驾驶数据与机器人场景可深度复用，再利用 数据引擎对算法进行训练，解决具身智能数据稀缺的行业痛点； 4）世界模拟器——无限的虚拟试炼场：自研神经世界模拟器可实现高 ...

从去年春晚的转手绢，到今年春晚各路机器人联手登台，各大机器人主机厂轮番出圈。过去一年里，从 走猫步到拳打创始人，再到机器人马拉松演唱会热舞都没落下，机器人的国民度更上一层楼，唯一遗憾 是春节期间股票不开盘。 相比群众基础渐深、看得见摸得着的中国机器人，美国机器人行业好像冷清很多。 激进如特斯拉不惜停产Model S/X服务机器人量产，目前口径也还是"2026年下半年开始交付"。沉寂多 年的老网红波士顿动力勉强算另一个，在年初的CES上发布了一个脸上长着大型USB接口的机器人： 波士顿动力的人形机器人Atlas 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 美国的机器人确实很少，但机器人公司其实非常多。 人工智能泰斗李飞飞初次创业就瞄准了机器人赛道，其公司World Labs主攻数据合成和机器人模型， OpenAI投资的Physical Intellence也是一家做模型的公司，创始团队就出自OpenAI和谷歌的DeepMind。 英伟达自然也不会闲着，除了做芯片，还专为人形机器人设计了Isaac大模型平台，年内连更三次，比 GPU还勤快。 英伟达Issac平台为人形机器人提供模型训 ...

人形机器人板块复盘： 2024年9.24以来人形机器人板块呈现单边上涨，小幅回调趋势，核心催化包括华为机器人入局，宇树登上春晚等 等；展望26年，我们认为板块会逐步收敛，一方面特斯拉Optimus从实验室阶段正式走向量产，因此需要关注量产 确定性标的，其次预期差我们认为来自于一些新技术方向（提升效能or大幅降本） 【人形机器人】2026年度策略——"以正和，以奇胜"，重视机器人规模化量产元年【东吴机械】 【人形机器人】2026年度策略——"以正和，以奇胜"，重视机器人规模化量产元年【东吴机械】 人形机器人板块复盘： 2026年策略展望：以正和，以奇胜： 1）以正和：特斯拉Optimus迭代顺利，26年开启大规模量产元年，因此确定性方向主要包括Tier1&丝杠&减速机等 环节，供应链逐步进入缩圈状态。 此外国产链方面宇树、智元等头部玩家有望在26年批量上市。 2）以奇胜：机器人弹性标的需关注技术迭代&降本方向。 ①灵巧手方向：自由度提升、寿命提升、降本和提升灵巧度是四大核心驱动力，具体变化包括导入行星滚珠丝 杠，冷镦降本工艺，电子皮肤等；②电机方向：高转矩密度与紧凑结构的轴向磁通电机加速渗透；③轻量化方 向：随 ...

Group 1 - The recent performance of humanoid robots during the Chinese Spring Festival Gala showcased significant advancements in robotics, indicating China's transition from a manufacturing powerhouse to a stronghold in intelligent manufacturing [1][3] - The performance of robots, which included complex movements and recovery from falls, has drawn international attention, with foreign media highlighting the impressive capabilities of Chinese robotics companies [1][3] - The rise of Chinese robotics and AI technology signals a potential shift in global automation standards, with predictions that by 2025, Chinese robots will be capable of performing advanced stunts [1][3] Group 2 - The upcoming visit of Trump to China is seen as a necessity for the U.S. to reassess its trade strategies, particularly in light of the Supreme Court ruling that may require the refund of over $175 billion in tariffs [1][3] - The U.S. is facing the reality that the trade war has not yielded the desired results, as China remains a critical supplier for various industries, including rare earths and pharmaceuticals [3][5] - The technological restrictions imposed by the U.S. have inadvertently accelerated China's advancements in key sectors, such as AI and semiconductor manufacturing, with significant breakthroughs achieved in domestic production capabilities [3][5] Group 3 - The interdependence of the U.S. and Chinese economies suggests that a decoupling would be detrimental to both parties, emphasizing the need for dialogue to resolve trade disputes [5][7] - The focus on innovation in robotics and semiconductor technology indicates that the country is positioning itself to lead in future technological developments, reducing reliance on foreign technologies [7] - The combination of China's technological advancements and the need for the U.S. to engage in constructive dialogue reflects a shift in the dynamics of U.S.-China relations, with implications for global technology trends [7]

Group 1: Market Overview - The A-share market has shown a steady upward trend since the beginning of 2026, with over 90% of actively managed equity funds achieving positive returns [2][9] - As of February 13, 2026, 4,283 out of 4,706 active equity funds reported positive growth since the start of the year, with 103 funds achieving over 20% growth [2][9] - The macroeconomic environment is expected to support the market, with a stable growth rate anticipated for the year, aiding in corporate profit recovery [3][10] Group 2: Policy and Economic Support - The domestic economic growth rate is projected to remain stable in 2026, with policies focusing on supporting demand and reducing financing barriers for private enterprises [3][10] - The government aims to promote the development of emerging industries while facilitating the digital transformation of traditional sectors [3][10] - Expectations for policy support are likely to increase post-holiday, which may enhance market liquidity and risk appetite [3][10] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The humanoid robot sector is gaining significant attention, with several companies preparing for IPOs, indicating a maturation of the industry [5][12] - The humanoid robot market is projected to see substantial growth, with an estimated 2 million units expected in workplaces by 2035 [5][12] - Other sectors such as semiconductors, artificial intelligence, and global expansion are also attracting investment interest, with a focus on innovation and market integration [6][13][15] Group 4: Sector-Specific Insights - The humanoid robot industry has seen large-scale orders primarily from government and service sectors, with a notable decrease in core component prices [5][12] - The semiconductor industry is entering a phase of innovation, with significant investments expected to yield results in key processes and materials [7][13] - The "outbound" capability of companies is becoming a critical source of alpha, as firms successfully expand into global markets despite domestic challenges [14][15]

Core Insights - The 2026 Spring Festival Gala showcased humanoid robots, highlighting China's advancements in robotics and its ambition to lead in the humanoid robot and future manufacturing sectors [1][2] - The performance featured robots from four startups, setting a record for the number of robot brands appearing at the gala, which is a significant platform for showcasing technological prowess in China [1][2] - The event reflects a broader trend of increasing attention on humanoid robots in China, with significant implications for government contracts, investor interest, and market access for companies featured [2] Industry Overview - The humanoid robot market in China is projected to dominate globally, with Omdia estimating that by 2025, approximately 90% of the 13,000 humanoid robots shipped worldwide will come from China [3] - Morgan Stanley forecasts a 133% year-on-year increase in China's humanoid robot sales this year, reaching 28,000 units [3] - Tesla's CEO Elon Musk acknowledged the competitive landscape, stating that Chinese companies are underestimated and are formidable competitors in the humanoid robot space [3]

Core Viewpoint - The 2026 Spring Festival Gala showcased significant advancements in humanoid robotics, highlighting China's efforts in leading the humanoid robot and future manufacturing sectors [1][7]. Group 1: Humanoid Robot Performances - Humanoid robots from four startups, including Yushu Technology and Galaxy General, made a record appearance at the Spring Festival Gala, marking a significant moment in the history of the event [1][7]. - The performance titled "Wu BOT" featured over ten humanoid robots interacting closely with child actors, demonstrating complex martial arts movements and innovative capabilities such as multi-robot coordination and self-recovery after falls [3][4]. Group 2: Technological Innovations - Yushu Technology's founder highlighted the global debut of high-dynamic, high-coordination cluster control technology, which allowed robots to perform intricate martial arts actions during rapid movements [4]. - The integration of humanoid robots into a language program for the first time was showcased in the skit "Grandma's Favorite," indicating a diversification of robot applications [4]. Group 3: Market Trends and Projections - The humanoid robot industry in China is gaining unprecedented attention, with a projected 133% year-on-year increase in sales, reaching 28,000 units this year [11]. - Market research indicates that by 2025, approximately 90% of the global humanoid robot shipment, estimated at 13,000 units, will come from China, significantly outpacing competitors like Tesla [9][10]. Group 4: Strategic Importance - The Spring Festival Gala serves as a platform for showcasing technological ambitions, translating industrial policies into prime-time performances, which can lead to tangible benefits in government contracts and investor interest [8]. - Analysts emphasize that humanoid robots encapsulate China's advantages in AI capabilities, a robust hardware supply chain, and an ambitious manufacturing strategy, making them easily understandable to the public [8].

Core Viewpoint - The competition between Xiaopeng and Tesla in the humanoid robot industry represents a clash of two different technological philosophies and business logics, with Xiaopeng focusing on technology reuse and Tesla emphasizing pure self-research and heavy investment [1]. Hardware Architecture - The core competitiveness of humanoid robots lies in their hardware architecture's adaptability to real-world scenarios, with Xiaopeng's IRON boasting 82 degrees of freedom compared to Tesla's Optimus Gen2 with 50, particularly excelling in high-precision industrial tasks [3][5]. - Xiaopeng's design breaks away from traditional robotic aesthetics, employing a General-Purpose Humanoid Design Framework that allows for a harmonious and efficient human-like structure [5][7]. - The IRON robot features a solid-state battery with an energy density greater than 500Wh/kg, achieving all-day operation, while Optimus relies on a 2.3kWh lithium battery with limited operational hours [10]. Technical Route - Xiaopeng's "car-machine same source" strategy demonstrates remarkable R&D efficiency, leveraging existing automotive technologies for its robot business, allowing for a faster transition from R&D to mass production [12][14]. - Tesla's approach involves developing everything from scratch, which extends the R&D cycle and lacks the cross-domain synergy seen in Xiaopeng's model [14][16]. Ecological Synergy - Xiaopeng has built a physical AI ecosystem that integrates smart cars, humanoid robots, and flying cars, creating a cost advantage and enhancing R&D efficiency through shared data and resources [16][17]. - Tesla's ecosystem remains confined to the automotive sector, limiting its ability to leverage cross-category technological synergies [17][19]. Commercial Implementation - Xiaopeng aims for large-scale production by the end of 2026, having completed necessary preparatory work, while Tesla's production timeline has faced multiple delays, with no clear large-scale delivery date [20][22]. - Xiaopeng's pricing strategy targets a range of 200,000 to 300,000 yuan, facilitating rapid penetration into industrial and commercial markets, whereas Tesla's pricing may exceed expectations due to its historical pricing strategies [22][24]. Long-term Competition - The competition in the humanoid robot sector will ultimately hinge on the ability to construct ecological barriers and the compounding effects of technological iteration, with Xiaopeng's integrated approach providing a significant advantage [24][25]. - Xiaopeng's partnerships and open SDK for industrial applications contrast with Tesla's more insular approach, which may limit its commercial reach [25][27].

Group 1: Market Overview - The humanoid robot sector has shown a consistent upward trend since September 24, 2024, with a slight correction, driven by catalysts such as Huawei's entry into robotics and the appearance of Yuzhu on the Spring Festival Gala[3] - The humanoid robot index has experienced four significant market waves since March 2021, with cumulative gains of approximately 30% in the first wave, 70% in the second, 50% in the third, and a recent upward trend since late 2024[9][13] Group 2: Industry Changes - The humanoid robot industry has undergone three core changes in 2025: cost reduction, mass production, and increased intelligence[26] - The price of key components, such as planetary roller screws, has dropped significantly from thousands of yuan to around one thousand yuan, while precision and lifespan still have room for improvement[27] Group 3: 2026 Strategy Outlook - The strategy for 2026 emphasizes "harmony and victory," focusing on the certainty of mass production and the potential of new technologies to enhance efficiency or significantly reduce costs[20] - Key investment directions include Tier 1 suppliers, screws, and reducers, with a focus on companies like Sanhua Intelligent Control and Top Group[76] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies for Tier 1 components include Sanhua Intelligent Control and Top Group, while for screws, companies like Hengli Hydraulic and Zhejiang Rongtai are suggested[76] - For technological innovation and cost reduction, companies such as Zhaowei Electromechanical and Hanwei Technology are highlighted[76] Group 5: Risk Factors - Risks include the potential underperformance of robot industrialization, technological iterations that may render existing components obsolete, and reliance on major clients amidst international trade tensions[78]