三季度，霸王茶姬在大中华区的总GMV为76.3亿元，同比下降6.2%；单店月均GMV为37.85万元，同比下滑约28.3%。 同时，贡献公司近九成收入的加盟业务出现萎缩，相关收入同比下降14.8%，至28亿元。 以下文章来源于信风TradeWind ，作者刘艺晨 关注资本市场的趋势与发展 作者刘艺晨 编辑松壑 外卖补贴过境后，霸王茶姬的三季报压力尽显。 三季度，霸王茶姬净新增门店300家，总门店数达到7338家。 在会员数同比增长36.7%至2.22亿的背景下，总GMV同比下滑4.5%至79.3亿元，环比一、二季度分别下滑3.5%、2.1%。 扩张仍在进行，GMV滑坡显然无法被简单归因于"不打价格战"的决定。 去年四季度以来，霸王茶姬同店GMV一直处在同比下降通道；归母净利润也连续两个季度同比下滑，净利润率由去年三季度的18%降至12%。 开店高峰期渐过、单店收入下滑，均指向其所属品类的市场红利正在减退。 业绩会上，CEO张俊杰强调将围绕品牌、产品、体验、渠道推动"高质量发展策略"。 近年来，在普通的商圈店之外，霸王茶姬已发展出24小时门店、宠物友好门店、超级茶仓等特色店型。 在星巴克预备借由中资布局下沉、冲 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an OUTPERFORM rating, setting a target price of USD 31.60 for Chagee Holdings, currently priced at USD 25.02 [1][2]. Core Insights - Chagee Holdings, founded in 2017 in Yunnan, aims to connect the world through Eastern tea culture, focusing on three product categories: "First Cup Tea" (light milk tea), "Second Cup Tea" (tea lattes and pure tea), and "Third Cup Tea" (ready-to-drink tea beverages) [1][5]. - As of March 2025, Chagee has established 6,681 stores globally, making it the largest high-end fresh tea brand in China [1][5]. - The company has experienced rapid growth in the fresh tea beverage market, with a projected revenue increase from RMB 12.41 billion in 2024 to RMB 24.42 billion by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 26% [1][3]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for Chagee are RMB 15.11 billion for 2025, RMB 19.39 billion for 2026, and RMB 24.42 billion for 2027, with net profits expected to reach RMB 2.81 billion, RMB 3.57 billion, and RMB 4.34 billion respectively [1][3]. - The report estimates a diluted EPS of RMB 19.23 for 2025, with a gross profit margin (GPM) increasing from 49.6% in 2024 to 56.6% by 2027 [1][3]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - Chagee has a significant advantage in the "First Cup Tea" segment, with single-store GMV reaching a peak of RMB 574,000 in Q4 2023, four times higher than Q1 2022 [2][28]. - The company maintains a strong brand presence and scale advantage in the light milk tea category, despite increasing competition in the beverage industry [2][31]. - Chagee's overseas expansion has accelerated, with 169 international stores opened by Q1 2025, including locations in Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Indonesia, the USA, and Vietnam [2][35]. Product Development and Innovation - The "Second Cup Tea" concept was launched in March 2025, focusing on office areas with a new store format called "CHAGEE NOW," offering freshly brewed tea and baked goods [3][37]. - The "Third Cup Tea" is anticipated to leverage the existing brand and distribution network for ready-to-drink tea products, with significant market potential in the RTD tea segment [3][49]. Operational Efficiency and Supply Chain - Chagee employs a digitalized operational model, enhancing efficiency across product development, supply chain management, and customer engagement [1][16]. - The company has streamlined its supply chain, focusing on a limited number of ingredients, which has resulted in lower logistics costs and improved inventory turnover [1][17]. Franchise Model and Expansion Strategy - Chagee's franchise model, termed "1+1+9+N," ensures a high success rate for new store openings by establishing local subsidiaries before launching franchise operations [1][23]. - The company has achieved a low franchise closure rate of approximately 1.5% in 2024, primarily due to underperforming franchise partners [1][24].