Core Viewpoint - Haitong International initiates coverage on Cha Baidao (02555) with an "outperform" rating and a target price of HKD 9.3, anticipating a recovery in fundamentals by mid-2025 through product innovation, marketing optimization, and franchisee operations after a business adjustment in 2024 [1] Company Background - Cha Baidao, founded by Wang Xiaokun in 2008 in Chengdu, Sichuan, is a leading ready-to-drink tea brand in China, with 8,465 global stores as of 1H25, including 8,444 in China and 21 overseas [1] - The brand holds an 8% market share in China's ready-to-drink tea segment, ranking third by GMV in 2023, and is the second-largest in the mass market segment with a 15.6% market share [1] Business Adjustment and Innovation - The ready-to-drink beverage industry is entering an adjustment phase in 2024, with Cha Baidao optimizing its business model to return to a growth trajectory in 1H25 [2] - The company is restructuring its business around product capabilities, with a dual-team approach in R&D leading to 55 new products launched in 1H25, significantly up from 21 in the same period of 2024 [3] - Marketing strategies are shifting from passive to proactive, with increased advertising spending and enhanced precision marketing to boost customer retention [3] - Operational improvements include optimizing existing franchisees and encouraging expansion into county-level markets, resulting in a shorter payback period for stores by approximately 1-2 months compared to 2024 [3] - Supply chain enhancements have led to next-day delivery for most stores and a broader range of self-produced raw materials [3] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company anticipates a high base effect in same-store sales due to delivery subsidies in 2025, with potential pressure in 2026 as subsidy levels decrease [4] - Cha Baidao plans to enhance same-store and single-store performance through channel expansion, product diversification, and increased marketing efforts [4] - Recent social security and tax policies are expected to promote a more regulated and sustainable industry, benefiting compliant leading brands like Cha Baidao [4] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at CNY 5.59 billion, 6.00 billion, and 6.55 billion, with adjusted net profits of CNY 840 million, 950 million, and 1.08 billion respectively [4] - The company is assigned a 15X PE valuation for 2025, leading to a target price of HKD 9.3 based on expected growth rates and industry average valuation levels [4]

从长期看，渗透率提升空间仍大，连锁化率与集中度持续提升。2023年，国内人均现制茶饮年消费量为 11杯，而中国香港及中国台湾地区则均超50杯。现制茶饮的渗透率成长空间广阔，随着未来新客群渗 透、消费频次提升，现制茶饮规模有望实现进一步增长。尤其是下沉市场的空间潜力大，2023年国内一 线城市的人均消费为27杯，二线及以下城市为不到10杯，引发龙头企业关注和深挖。从结构来看，行业 连锁化率与集中度持续提升，2023年中国现制茶饮连锁化率（门店口径）为56.1%，较2018年提升17.1 个百分点。近年来各头部品牌保持快速拓店，而中小品牌持续出清，预计行业集中度仍将持续提升。 中国拥有悠久的茶文化和庞大的茶消费群体，但繁琐的传统沏茶步骤限制了消费者，特别是年轻群体对 茶的消费。现制茶饮的出现大大简化了制作过程，并通过不断优化产品获得更多年轻人青睐。在这一过 程中，产生了"珍珠奶茶"等经典产品。2015年，新茶饮概念横空出世，现制茶饮品牌开始使用原叶茶、 鲜奶、鲜果等优质原料，产品品质明显提升。尤其是随着头部茶饮品牌规模化发展和供应链升级，更多 消费者能够通过实惠的价格享受高品质产品，行业逐步实现结构性升级。 近些 ...

广发证券批零社服首席分析师 嵇文欣 中国拥有悠久的茶文化和庞大的茶消费群体，但繁琐的传统沏茶步骤限制了消费者，特别是年轻群体对 茶的消费。现制茶饮的出现大大简化了制作过程，并通过不断优化产品获得更多年轻人青睐。在这一过 程中，产生了"珍珠奶茶"等经典产品。2015年，新茶饮概念横空出世，现制茶饮品牌开始使用原叶茶、 鲜奶、鲜果等优质原料，产品品质明显提升。尤其是随着头部茶饮品牌规模化发展和供应链升级，更多 消费者能够通过实惠的价格享受高品质产品，行业逐步实现结构性升级。 近些年标杆性企业的优秀表现，让资本市场进一步认识到现制茶饮行业的发展潜力，并将板块贴上了新 消费的标签。不少投资者也对这一赛道表现出了浓厚兴趣。针对现制茶饮行业，我们可以从供需两侧、 长短期驱动、短期外卖补贴影响等维度展开分析。 益，而部分中小品牌加盟商很可能出现增收不增利的情况。 随着外卖补贴大战趋于理性，市场担心后续同店营业额是否仍有增长支撑、明年4月起的同店营业额高 基数压力，以及补贴教育出的低价习惯或将使消费者对原价茶饮的接受度降低。基于对行业的分析，我 们认为：（1）头部品牌拳头产品优惠力度相对较低，做活动的产品大多为低价引流品，产 ...

Core Insights - The new tea beverage industry is experiencing a slowdown in store expansion, with a total of 13.38 million existing stores and a net increase of 186 stores in October 2025, reflecting a month-on-month growth rate of 0.14% [2][4]. Store Opening and Closing Summary - In October, 30 chain brands opened a total of 3,247 stores while closing 3,062, resulting in a net increase of 186 stores [2][4]. - The leading brand, Mixue Ice City, closed 804 stores, resulting in a net decrease of 68 stores, while maintaining 44,166 existing stores, a decline of 0.15% month-on-month [4][9]. - Gu Ming achieved a net increase of 215 stores, with a month-on-month growth rate of 1.69%, totaling 12,905 existing stores [4][9]. - Eleven brands reported positive net growth, with Hu Shang A Yi leading with a net increase of 271 stores, and Yi Dian Dian showing the fastest growth rate of 3.59% with a net increase of 140 stores, surpassing 4,000 stores [7]. Brand Performance - Significant closures were noted among brands, with Mixue Ice City leading in closures, followed by Tian La La with 341 closures and Gu Ming with 226 closures [9][14]. - Other brands like Shuyi Burned Immortal Grass and Bawang Tea Princess also saw closures exceeding 100 stores [14]. Market Expansion Trends - The expansion is primarily concentrated in second and third-tier cities, which account for 65.1% of new store openings, with third-tier cities leading with 754 new stores (23.2% of total) [17]. - In contrast, first-tier cities only saw 302 new stores, representing 9.3% of the total, indicating a continued penetration of new tea brands into lower-tier markets [17]. Special Location Insights - Campuses emerged as a key battleground for brand expansion, with Gu Ming adding 35 campus stores and Tian La La adding 30, contributing to a total of 125 new campus stores, which accounted for 71.84% of the total increase in campus stores for October [20]. - In shopping centers, brands like Bawang Tea Princess, Yi Dian Dian, and Hu Shang A Yi showed strong expansion, with net increases of 57, 43, and 40 stores respectively, while brands like Tea Hundred Road and Xi Tea experienced significant reductions [21]. Transportation Hub Expansion - Brands exhibited cautious expansion in transportation hubs, with only Bawang Tea Princess achieving a double-digit net increase, while other brands did not exceed six new stores [22].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company [5]. Core Viewpoints - The tea beverage industry is characterized as a high-quality track with continuous expansion driven by supply and demand [2][46]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the affordable tea beverage market, leveraging its strong brand and supply chain capabilities to penetrate both domestic and international markets [2][3]. - The report highlights the company's strategic expansion through its main brand, Lucky Coffee, and the craft beer brand, Fulu Family, which are expected to enhance operational capabilities and market presence [3][16]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The tea beverage industry is experiencing a long-term growth phase, with a projected market size of 746.4 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a 19% year-on-year increase [50]. - The market is dominated by brands that can meet diverse consumer needs, particularly in the lower price segments [46][50]. 2. Company Performance - As of mid-2025, the company operates over 53,000 stores, with a significant number located overseas, indicating robust international expansion [2][20]. - The company reported revenues of 20.3 billion yuan in 2023, with a growth rate of 49.6%, and expects to reach 33.49 billion yuan by 2025, reflecting a 34.9% growth rate [3][21]. 3. Supply Chain and Operational Efficiency - The company has achieved a self-supply ratio of 100% for core beverage ingredients, significantly reducing costs by approximately 50% compared to external procurement [2][5]. - The integration of digital logistics and automated warehousing has enhanced the company's operational efficiency, supporting its global expansion strategy [2][3]. 4. Financial Projections - The report forecasts net profits of 5.94 billion yuan, 6.54 billion yuan, and 7.68 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 24, 22, and 19 [3][16]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) are projected to grow from 8.39 yuan in 2023 to 15.66 yuan in 2025 [3][21]. 5. Competitive Landscape - The competitive environment in the tea beverage sector is intensifying, with an increasing number of brands vying for market share, particularly in lower-tier cities [46][60]. - The company maintains a strong market position, with a market share of 11.3% by gross merchandise value (GMV) and 6.5% by store count as of 2023 [57][58].

Core Insights - The article discusses the importance of understanding business models in the context of investment analysis, particularly in the A-share market, emphasizing the need to adapt beyond traditional frameworks like those of Warren Buffett [1] Group 1: Business Models in the Tea Beverage Industry - The two tea brands, Mixue Ice Cream and Nayuki, operate under fundamentally different business models, with Mixue focusing on low-cost products and profitability, while Nayuki has reported significant losses despite high revenue [2][3] - Nayuki's business model is centered around a direct sales approach, prioritizing store locations and customer experience, which has led to operational challenges and losses [3] - In contrast, Mixue's franchise model relies on providing raw materials and support to franchisees, allowing for easier scalability and profitability [4][6] Group 2: Efficiency and Cost Management - Mixue achieves cost efficiency through lower material costs and economies of scale, allowing it to maintain competitive pricing and profitability [8][9] - The franchise model of Mixue is particularly suited to the Chinese market, leveraging a vast pool of potential franchisees who seek stable business opportunities [4][6] - The operational strategy of Gu Ming, another tea brand, focuses on supply chain efficiency, ensuring rapid delivery and fresh ingredients, which enhances its competitive edge in lower-tier markets [10] Group 3: Live Streaming E-commerce Models - The article outlines two primary business models in live streaming e-commerce: brand self-broadcasting and MCN (Multi-Channel Network) models, each with distinct core resources and key operations [11][13] - The self-broadcasting model emphasizes long-term operations and customer loyalty, while the MCN model relies on leveraging popular influencers for sales [13][14] - The challenges faced by traditional live streaming models highlight the need for companies to innovate and adapt their business strategies to maintain competitiveness [14][24] Group 4: Evolution of Oriental Selection - Oriental Selection has transitioned to a self-built supply chain model, integrating cultural elements with agricultural products to create a unique market position [18][20] - The company's shift towards self-operated products and direct supply chain management has resulted in significant revenue growth and improved profit margins [21][22] - Despite challenges following the departure of a key influencer, the company continues to pursue its strategic goals, focusing on building a sustainable business model [19][24]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market's new consumption concept stocks are actively performing, with the Hong Kong Consumption ETF (513230) rising nearly 1.5% during trading [1] - Among the holdings, Mixue Group leads with a gain of over 5%, while other companies like Smoore International, Shenzhou International, Midea Group, Giant Bio, and Nongfu Spring also see increases of over 3% [1] - The Ministry of Finance's report highlights a more proactive fiscal policy since 2025, focusing on stabilizing employment, businesses, markets, and expectations, with plans for six key areas of work to boost consumption [1] Group 2 - The growth of emerging consumer goods reflects the new consumption concepts of the younger generation in the current social environment, which is crucial for identifying growth opportunities in new consumption companies [2] - In the gold jewelry sector, it is recommended to focus on head brands in the ancient gold segment that are favored by younger consumers, such as Laopu Gold [2] - For trendy toys, companies with strong IP creation and operational experience, like Pop Mart, are suggested for attention [2] - In the ready-to-drink tea segment, it is advised to focus on leading tea brands with strong brand power and wide business coverage, such as Mixue Group and Guming [2] - The Hong Kong Consumption ETF (513230) tracks the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumption Theme Index, encompassing a wide range of sectors including leading new consumption companies and major internet e-commerce players like Tencent, Kuaishou, Alibaba, and Xiaomi [2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The introduction of new tax policies for gold is expected to drive market share towards leading brands in the medium to long term. The new tax policy exempts value-added tax for standard gold transactions, which may lead to increased costs for non-investment gold products, ultimately raising retail prices and potentially suppressing consumer demand in the short term. However, this policy is anticipated to regulate the industry and strengthen the competitive advantage of compliant leading brands [5]. - Domestic beauty brands are beginning to establish a presence on video platforms, with significant growth in the social e-commerce sector. The GMV of WeChat mini-programs is expected to exceed 2.5 trillion yuan in 2025, with social e-commerce accounting for over 50% of total transactions. Brands that leverage this platform effectively may maintain competitive advantages [5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding new consumer narratives shaped by younger generations, suggesting a focus on high-quality domestic brands in beauty, gold jewelry, trendy toys, and tea beverages [22]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The new consumption sector showed varied performance, with the beauty and personal care sector declining by 3.10%, while the retail index increased by 0.31% during the week of November 3 to November 7, 2025 [8]. Key Industry Data - In September, retail sales for clothing and textiles increased by 4.7%, cosmetics by 8.6%, and gold and silver jewelry by 9.7%. However, beverage retail sales saw a decline of 0.8% [12][16]. Investment Analysis Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality domestic brands with strong innovation in beauty, such as Mao Ge Ping and Shangmei; leading brands in traditional gold jewelry favored by younger consumers, such as Laopu Gold and Chaohongji; companies with successful IP creation and operation experience in trendy toys, like Pop Mart; and strong tea beverage brands with extensive market coverage, such as Mixue Group and Guming [22].

Core Insights - The current ready-to-drink tea market is highly competitive, with many similar brands vying for a limited customer base, leading to a phenomenon where multiple tea shops coexist in close proximity [2][4] - Lemon tea has emerged as the second-largest segment in the tea beverage category, with the market expected to exceed 8 billion yuan by 2025, growing at an annual rate of over 20% [2][4] - The industry is witnessing an influx of entrepreneurs and capital, intensifying competition and innovation within the lemon tea sector [2][4] Industry Trends - The concept of "infinite games" is introduced, contrasting with the traditional "finite games" where the goal is to eliminate competitors; the focus is on sustainable growth and continuous value creation [4][5] - The market is characterized by a high density of competitors, as exemplified by Guangzhou, which has numerous coffee shops and tea stores, indicating that there is still room for growth in the lemon tea segment [9] Company Strategy - The company, Lemon Xiang You, aims to focus on the lemon tea category rather than diversifying into multiple brands, emphasizing the importance of mastering one product line [5][10] - The founder's experience includes significant investments in marketing and product development, with a commitment to launching new flavors and maintaining product quality [6][10] - The company has successfully introduced innovative products, such as a Guangdong herbal tea series, which sold over 1 million cups in its first month [10] Market Dynamics - The competitive landscape is described as "intense," with the founder arguing that competition drives value creation across all industries, not just in tea [6][7] - The founder believes that the key to success lies in product quality, channel strategy, and effective marketing, following a specific order of operations [10] - The company is committed to long-term growth, continuously optimizing its business model and brand identity to appeal to younger consumers [11]

Core Insights - The article highlights the rapid international expansion of Cha Bai Dao, positioning it as one of the fastest-growing brands in the tea beverage industry since its official overseas launch in 2024 [3][4] - The company's strategy focuses on "precise sowing" and "deep cultivation," emphasizing a tailored approach to different markets rather than a one-size-fits-all strategy [13][21] Expansion Strategy - Cha Bai Dao's overseas journey began in South Korea, a choice that diverged from the common trend of entering Southeast Asia first, aiming for quicker localization [5][6] - Within two years, the brand has signed over 20 stores in South Korea, with plans to open 50 more by next year [6][9] - The company has also successfully opened its first store in France, achieving sales exceeding 1 million yuan in the first month [11][12] Market Adaptation - The brand's customer base in South Korea consists of over 70% local consumers, with a high repurchase rate of 45%, indicating successful localization efforts [9][10] - Cha Bai Dao employs a "one location, one strategy" approach, customizing its product offerings based on local preferences and market conditions [15][16] Product Innovation - The company has developed a three-tier product structure for international markets, including classic domestic favorites, differentiated products, and localized offerings tailored to specific regions [16][17] - The supply chain strategy combines local sourcing for fresh ingredients with established domestic supply chains for other materials, ensuring efficient operations [17][18] Long-term Vision - Cha Bai Dao aims for global brand and supply chain integration, aspiring to leverage experiences and influence across different international markets [23] - The company emphasizes the importance of educating consumers about Chinese tea culture as part of its long-term strategy for global brand establishment [22]