证券研究报告 商贸零售 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 01 月 05 日 元旦假期出行数据亮眼，抖音美妆 GMV 预计全年高增 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——新消费行业周报（2025.12.29-2026.1.2） 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 证券分析师 丁一 SAC：S1350524040003 dingyi@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 元旦假期消费数据更新：元旦数据表现较优，或因今年假期时间长于去年同期。即 将迎来春节 9 天长假，期待后续假期出行表现。 联系人 1）出行数据：据交通运输部，元旦假期期间，预计全社会跨区域人员流动量累计 5.9 亿人次，日均 1.98 亿人次，同比增长 19.5%（去年同期假期为 1 天）。其中：铁路 客运量预计 4822.3 万人次，日均 1607.5 万人次，增长 53.1%；民航客运量预计 588.1 万人次，日均 196.03 万人次，增长 10.49%。 2）重点景区数据：① 据美团旅行数据，2026 年元旦假期，"西安城墙·碑林历史 文化景区"门票预订量同比去年大涨 134%。西安元旦文旅预订 ...

长时间的避战，可能会让品牌失去新鲜感和市场敏锐度，甚至失去效率领先地位。 霸王茶姬的咖啡因含量也没有高到离谱。甚至"上海禁毒"还针对"准毒品"一说专门发文称，抛开剂量谈毒性都是"耍流氓"，目前市面上的咖啡因饮品都有 严格的添加剂标准。 即使如此，市场对于这个事件的反应非常大。12月26日，霸王茶姬美股一度跌超14%，创下上市以来最大单日跌幅。本质上，这个事件就像一道小裂缝， 让市场开始宣泄自己对这家公司下滑的信心。 那么，霸王茶姬最近一年究竟发生了什么呢？ 霸王茶姬需要补课了？ 从创始人张俊杰"联姻"引来热议后，市场仿佛开始重新审视霸王茶姬。 元旦假期之前，#霸王茶姬咖啡因#话题突然登上热搜，下午一杯"伯牙绝弦"，晚上彻夜失睡的评论铺满广场。这个话题发酵起来，估计霸王茶姬自己也没 想到，甚至有博主发帖称，霸王茶姬等高浓度咖啡因饮料，实际上是在蹭"准毒品"的擦边球。 霸王茶姬官微第一时间回应争议，"一杯采用原叶现泡的茶饮，其咖啡因含量按每100毫升计算，与一杯拿铁大致相当，并显著低于一杯美式咖啡"。 首先要厘清咖啡因这个老话题。实际上，过去两年，关于霸王茶姬咖啡因含量过高，导致心悸失眠的讨论一直没有停过。 霸王 ...

Group 1 - The consumer market in 2025 has transitioned from a broad recovery narrative to a phase of structural differentiation, focusing on balance amidst competition and transformation [1] - The contribution of consumption to economic growth is significant, accounting for 53.5% [1] - Key themes in the industry discussions have shifted from "recovery" to "differentiation" and "transformation" [1] Group 2 - Wahaha is undergoing significant changes following the passing of its founder, with challenges in leadership succession and channel reforms leading to potential mergers and eliminations [2] - The company achieved a revenue growth of 500 million yuan in 2025, amidst speculation about its future structure [2] - The beverage industry is experiencing a shift from rapid expansion to a focus on supply chain development and market positioning, as seen with brands like Bawang Tea and Mixue Ice City [2] Group 3 - Pop Mart has seen its stock price increase nearly 15 times over 17 months, becoming a notable player in the consumer market [3] - The popularity of the Labubu toy reflects the emotional engagement of consumers, particularly among the younger generation [3][4] - However, the prices of some products have started to decline, indicating a potential cooling in demand [3] Group 4 - The film "Nezha: The Devil's Child" has made a significant impact on the 2025 consumer market, generating a box office of 15.446 billion yuan and accounting for over 52% of the total box office in the first half of the year [6] - This highlights the extreme "head effect" in consumer spending, showcasing the market's structural differentiation [6] - Brands that can accurately capture niche demands and build competitive barriers are likely to thrive in this complex environment [6]

"I love you, you love me, Mixue soft serve & Tea." "你爱我，我爱你，蜜雪冰城甜蜜蜜"，蜜雪冰城洗脑的主题曲也开始在美洲大陆唱响。 2025年12月20日，蜜雪冰城美国首店开业放的就是这首歌；12月25日，播放这首歌的门店已经变成了3家，因为这一天蜜雪冰城又有2家纽约门店开业了。 蜜雪冰城美国开业，图片来源：蜜雪冰城 6天内，蜜雪冰城在美国开出了3家门店。门店也从西海岸的洛杉矶开到了东海岸的纽约。 产品方面，蜜雪冰城并没有复制国内的菜单。在美国门店，产品甜度可以加到200%；冰淇淋的位置比奶茶更显眼；植物奶成为一种产品选项；价格依旧 远低于当地餐饮店平均售价。[1] 消费者的热情也比想象中更加汹涌。蜜雪冰城好莱坞门店外的脚手架尚未拆除，也挡不住排队的人流。蜜雪冰城纽约门店建筑工还在完成装修的最后步 骤，消费者就开始排队。 6天开3店，蜜雪冰城从西海岸开到东海岸 12月20日，蜜雪冰城洛杉矶好莱坞店正式营业。 这家店位于好莱坞星光大道"中国剧院"的正对面，旁边的邻居是出海的"老乡"名创优品。 蜜雪冰城好莱坞店，图片来源：Fast Casual 5天后，也就是12 ...

Fixed Income - The bond market in 2026 is expected to perform better than anticipated, driven by a continuation of weak economic recovery and a divergence of new and old growth drivers, with infrastructure and real estate continuing to drag on the economy [9][12] - The central bank's monetary policy remains moderately accommodative, which is expected to keep social financing costs low and promote a reasonable recovery in prices [9][12] - The credit spreads for various sectors have shown mixed movements, with significant compression in the AA+ textile and apparel sector, while AAA real estate and AA+ pharmaceutical sectors have seen notable expansions [13][17] Construction and Building Materials - The construction sector is expected to experience a "spring surge" as the "14th Five-Year Plan" approaches, with significant government signals indicating a focus on urban renewal and housing security [20][21] - Key investment themes for 2026 include major national projects like the canal system and the Tibet railway, high-dividend low-valuation state-owned enterprises, and private construction firms leveraging cash flow in new sectors such as clean rooms and AI infrastructure [22][24] Pharmaceutical Industry - The pharmaceutical sector is anticipated to see concentrated catalysts in 2026, particularly in areas like brain-machine interfaces and AI medical technologies, with a focus on companies that have shown strong fundamentals and potential for recovery [25][27] - The brain-machine interface industry is highlighted as a key growth area, supported by government policies and clinical trials, with companies like Mai Lande and Meihua Medical recommended for investment [26][27] Commercial Aerospace - The commercial aerospace industry is poised for significant developments, with new listing standards for commercial rocket companies and a series of supportive government measures aimed at enhancing the sector's growth [31][32] - The cost competitiveness of China's commercial aerospace has improved, with private rockets nearing international standards, although there remains a gap compared to established players like SpaceX [31][32] New Consumption - The expansion of new consumption brands like Mixue Ice City and Huaxizi into international markets signifies a strategic move towards global brand recognition, with ongoing store openings in the Americas [4][5] - The pet market is also expanding, with companies like Lusi focusing on high-value product lines and stable relationships with core customers, indicating growth potential in both domestic and export markets [6]

自创立以来，古茗一路发展至今，不断加强在产品研发、物流供应链、品控管理等链路方面的建设，以 保障加盟门店的食品安全，让每一位消费者随时随地都能喝到新鲜、真材实料的饮品。 产品是决定品牌是否被消费者认可的关键因素，优质的产品，自然离不开强大的研发体系。正如古茗的 slogan「每天一杯喝不腻」所言，我们主要向消费者销售多种高品质饮品，包含鲜果茶、奶茶、咖啡及 其他。古茗的产品研发框架牢牢根植于对基础食品科学知识的持续研究、分析和积累，拥有强大的产品 研发能力，定期推出新品，截至2025年6月30日止的六个月，我们已推出52款新品。值得注意的是，今 年，古茗在咖啡饮品种类方面取得重大进展：截至2025年6月30日，超过8000家门店已配备咖啡机，且 已上新16款新咖啡饮品。 古茗茶饮创始于2010年，隶属于古茗科技集团有限公司，起源于浙江南部小镇"大溪"，历经15年稳步发 展，现已成为中国头部茶饮品牌之一。截至2025年6月30日，古茗门店规模稳步扩大，总数达到11179 家，同比增长17.5%。其中，二线及以下城市门店占比达81%，乡镇市场覆盖进一步深化，古茗在广阔 下沉市场持续渗透，显示出巨大品牌优势。 古茗 ...

今年初，蜜雪冰城和古茗同日递表港交所，两大中国现制茶饮品牌齐齐向上市发起冲击。如果再加上2023年8月递表的茶百道，继奈雪的茶之后，港股有望 再添三支茶饮股。 争夺茶饮第二股 虽然中国国内现制茶饮品牌众多，但到目前为止仅有奈雪的茶这一上市"独苗"。 在竞争日益激烈的情况下，不少茶饮品牌亟需通过上市筹集资金来进一步扩张。据不完全统计，喜茶、茶百道、蜜雪冰城、古茗、沪上阿姨、霸王茶姬等均 传过准备上市的消息，目标都瞄准了"茶饮第二股"。现在，随着一个一个向港交所递交招股书，竞争下半场的帷幕也缓缓拉开。 值得注意的是，原本蜜雪冰城是最接近成为"茶饮第二股"的。早在2022年9月，蜜雪冰城曾准备在深交所主板上市，并进入了受理阶段，根据预披露的招股 书，蜜雪冰城拟募集64.96亿元，预计于2023年第一季度正式上市。但是随后遇上了全面注册制的落地，当时在审主板IPO大多转移到深交所受理，但是在平 移申报企业名单中却不见蜜雪冰城的身影，蜜雪冰城的A股之旅就此销声匿迹。随后在2023年下半年，业内就多次出现过蜜雪冰城要转战港股上市的消息， 直到今年初递表港交所消息才正式确定。 门店扩张 根据蜜雪冰城的招股书，其在中国开设超 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, Mijue Group (2097.HK), marking its first coverage [4]. Core Insights - Mijue Group is positioned as the world's largest ready-to-drink beverage company, leveraging an end-to-end supply chain system and a network of 53,000 stores to establish a leading position in the ready-to-drink tea market. Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at RMB 335.5 billion, RMB 403.0 billion, and RMB 443.9 billion, respectively, with corresponding net profits of RMB 60.0 billion, RMB 74.0 billion, and RMB 84.1 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 35.1%, 20.1%, and 10.1% [4][6]. Company and Industry Analysis - The ready-to-drink beverage industry in China is experiencing rapid growth, with the ready-to-drink tea market size reaching approximately RMB 258.5 billion in 2023. The company focuses on the research, production, and sales of ready-to-drink tea and freshly brewed coffee, operating under the brands Mijue Ice City and Lucky Coffee, which target price points of RMB 6-8 and RMB 5-10, respectively. The company operates on a franchise model, generating revenue primarily from selling equipment and providing franchise services [4][6]. - Mijue Group's supply chain advantages include a comprehensive procurement network across 38 countries, five production bases ensuring 100% self-sourcing of core ingredients, and a logistics system that allows for rapid delivery to 90% of domestic county-level administrative regions within 12 hours. This infrastructure supports consistent product quality and cost efficiency, reinforcing the company's market leadership with a market share of approximately 49.6% in the ready-to-drink tea sector [4][5][6]. Key Assumptions - The company anticipates steady expansion in store numbers, particularly in lower-tier markets, with projected revenue from product and equipment sales of RMB 326.8 billion, RMB 392.2 billion, and RMB 431.4 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. The gross margin is expected to improve gradually, reaching 31.5% by 2027 [4][6]. - Revenue from franchise fees and related services is projected to grow significantly, with estimates of RMB 8.7 billion, RMB 10.9 billion, and RMB 12.5 billion for the same years, reflecting a robust growth trajectory supported by an expanding store network [4][6]. Financial Data and Profitability Forecast - The company forecasts total revenue of RMB 20.3 billion in 2023, increasing to RMB 44.4 billion by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 49.6% from 2023 to 2024 and 10.1% from 2026 to 2027. Net profit is expected to rise from RMB 3.1 billion in 2023 to RMB 8.4 billion in 2027, with corresponding net profit growth rates of 57.1% and 13.7% [6][21]. - The report highlights a projected gross margin improvement from 29.5% in 2023 to 33.0% in 2027, alongside a net margin increase from 15.7% to 19.0% over the same period [6][21].

近年来，现制茶饮市场发展迅速，尤其受到作为消费主力军的Z世代年轻消费者追捧。由于具备高频的 消费特点，以及产品标准化的制作流程、相对轻投入的门店运营模式，开一家奶茶店成为许多希望投身 餐饮行业或尝试创业的年轻人的优选之一。 山东济南的95后小玉在大学毕业并经历短暂职场生活后，最终决定加入易入门、轻投入的奶茶赛道，开 启自主创业之路。经过多方考察与比较，她选择了加盟能为创业新人提供全方位开店帮扶且具有品牌影 响力的沪上阿姨品牌。从选址评估、装修设计到人员培训、开业驻点，品牌的全程帮扶让小玉顺利度过 了起步阶段。如今，她在山东成功运营2家门店。沪上阿姨近年来推出了多项政策为加盟商保驾护航， 尤其是为新加盟商减轻前期开店成本负担，同时不断创新优化产品及供应链，也为沪上阿姨近万店的规 模，带来了十足的底气。 2025年沪上阿姨济南招商加盟专场。企业供图 减轻加盟商创业压力 万元的限时装修补贴、设备费补贴等多项优惠，帮助加盟商大幅减轻前期压力快速开店，加入现制茶饮 行业抓住消费市场机遇。 除了前期的成本政策支持，沪上阿姨还为加盟合作伙伴提供从"开店、原料采购到门店运营、品牌营 销"等全链路加盟运营帮扶。协助进行选址优化 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from GF Securities projects that the adjusted net profit of Hu Shang A Yi (02589) will reach 560 million, 640 million, and 760 million yuan for the years 2025 to 2027 respectively, indicating a clear growth strategy and strong resilience against economic cycles [1][6]. Group 1: Company Growth and Strategy - Hu Shang A Yi has become the second brand in the mid-priced ready-to-drink tea segment to reach 10,000 stores since its establishment in 2013, benefiting from the takeout market starting in May 2025 [2][6]. - The company has improved its user acquisition and retention capabilities, with expectations for its main brand to maintain resilience in same-store performance [2][6]. Group 2: Market Position and Expansion - Hu Shang A Yi holds a significant market position in Northern China, with 4,784 stores by the end of 2024, which is approximately 1,900 more than the second-ranked brand, capturing 52.1% of the market share [7]. - The investment model is characterized by low initial costs for franchisees, with an average startup cost of 275,000 yuan, lower than the industry average of 350,000 yuan, leading to a 98% renewal rate among franchisees in 2024 [7]. Group 3: Product Innovation and Consumer Engagement - The company actively responds to consumer demands by launching 136 new products in the first half of 2025, achieving 15.8 million active members and a quarterly repurchase rate of 40.6% [8]. - In 2025, Hu Shang A Yi is restructuring its coffee product line, anticipating that coffee will contribute to same-store sales growth alongside baked goods [8]. Group 4: Tea Waterfall and International Expansion - The Tea Waterfall brand, priced below 10 yuan, has gained popularity in towns and universities, with over 1,000 signed and operating stores [11]. - Hu Shang A Yi has opened stores in the United States and South Korea, focusing on economically developed countries, with positive performance reported [11].