Core Insights - After six months of being listed, "沪上阿姨" has joined the "10,000 store club," but its stock price has faced significant declines, nearly halving from its peak, despite a recent rebound following news of an H-share incentive plan [1][2] - The company's revenue growth of 9.7% in the first half of the year is significantly lower than competitors like 古茗 and 蜜雪冰城, which reported growth rates of 41.2% and 39.3% respectively [1][2] - The rapid expansion strategy that once fueled growth is now showing signs of weakness, with a notable increase in store closures and a slowdown in new openings [6][7] Company Performance - "沪上阿姨" has reached a total of 10,739 stores across 31 provinces and 357 cities in China, marking a significant milestone in the new tea beverage industry [1][4] - Despite the large number of stores, the company has reported a net increase of only 260 stores in the first half of the year, a decrease from 653 in the same period last year [6][7] - The average GMV (Gross Merchandise Value) per franchise store has declined from 1.6 million yuan in 2023 to 1.4 million yuan in 2024, indicating pressure on franchise profitability [8][11] Industry Context - The new tea beverage market is transitioning from a phase of rapid expansion to one focused on single-store efficiency and franchisee returns, with investors increasingly concerned about the sustainability of store operations [6][15] - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with "沪上阿姨" facing challenges in the mid-tier market where it struggles to differentiate itself from both high-end brands and low-cost competitors [9][10] - The industry is moving towards a focus on quality and brand differentiation rather than sheer scale, as evidenced by the strategies of competitors like 蜜雪冰城 and 古茗 [15][22] Strategic Challenges - "沪上阿姨" is experiencing structural challenges related to its market positioning, supply chain efficiency, and brand identity, which are hindering its growth potential [8][14] - The company's broad expansion strategy has led to resource dilution, making it difficult to convert store numbers into effective market control [10][11] - The brand's attempt to establish a "health tea" image through initiatives like the "五色慢养" plan has not resonated strongly with consumers, leading to a lack of clear brand identity [12][14] Future Outlook - The company is exploring a second growth curve with its sub-brand "茶瀑布," aimed at the budget market, but faces skepticism regarding its ability to establish a distinct market presence [20][22] - The capital market is reassessing the valuation of the new tea beverage sector, favoring companies with strong supply chain control and clear brand identities, while those with ambiguous positioning may face valuation discounts [22][16] - To reverse market perceptions, "沪上阿姨" must balance expansion with improving single-store performance and develop a more compelling brand narrative [22][19]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an OUTPERFORM rating, setting a target price of USD 31.60 for Chagee Holdings, currently priced at USD 25.02 [1][2]. Core Insights - Chagee Holdings, founded in 2017 in Yunnan, aims to connect the world through Eastern tea culture, focusing on three product categories: "First Cup Tea" (light milk tea), "Second Cup Tea" (tea lattes and pure tea), and "Third Cup Tea" (ready-to-drink tea beverages) [1][5]. - As of March 2025, Chagee has established 6,681 stores globally, making it the largest high-end fresh tea brand in China [1][5]. - The company has experienced rapid growth in the fresh tea beverage market, with a projected revenue increase from RMB 12.41 billion in 2024 to RMB 24.42 billion by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 26% [1][3]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for Chagee are RMB 15.11 billion for 2025, RMB 19.39 billion for 2026, and RMB 24.42 billion for 2027, with net profits expected to reach RMB 2.81 billion, RMB 3.57 billion, and RMB 4.34 billion respectively [1][3]. - The report estimates a diluted EPS of RMB 19.23 for 2025, with a gross profit margin (GPM) increasing from 49.6% in 2024 to 56.6% by 2027 [1][3]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - Chagee has a significant advantage in the "First Cup Tea" segment, with single-store GMV reaching a peak of RMB 574,000 in Q4 2023, four times higher than Q1 2022 [2][28]. - The company maintains a strong brand presence and scale advantage in the light milk tea category, despite increasing competition in the beverage industry [2][31]. - Chagee's overseas expansion has accelerated, with 169 international stores opened by Q1 2025, including locations in Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Indonesia, the USA, and Vietnam [2][35]. Product Development and Innovation - The "Second Cup Tea" concept was launched in March 2025, focusing on office areas with a new store format called "CHAGEE NOW," offering freshly brewed tea and baked goods [3][37]. - The "Third Cup Tea" is anticipated to leverage the existing brand and distribution network for ready-to-drink tea products, with significant market potential in the RTD tea segment [3][49]. Operational Efficiency and Supply Chain - Chagee employs a digitalized operational model, enhancing efficiency across product development, supply chain management, and customer engagement [1][16]. - The company has streamlined its supply chain, focusing on a limited number of ingredients, which has resulted in lower logistics costs and improved inventory turnover [1][17]. Franchise Model and Expansion Strategy - Chagee's franchise model, termed "1+1+9+N," ensures a high success rate for new store openings by establishing local subsidiaries before launching franchise operations [1][23]. - The company has achieved a low franchise closure rate of approximately 1.5% in 2024, primarily due to underperforming franchise partners [1][24].