金石资源（603505.SH） 1H25 公司利润短期承压，关注金鄂博项目产能逐步释放 | 财务指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 1,896 | 2,752 | 3,657 | 4,585 | 5,196 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | 80.5 | 45.2 | 32.9 | 25.4 | 13.3 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 349 | 257 | 303 | 486 | 658 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | 56.9 | -26.3 | 17.7 | 60.6 | 35.3 | | ROE（%） | 17.8 | 11.8 | 12.7 | 17.9 | 20.5 | | EPS 最新摊薄（元） | 0.41 | 0.31 | 0.36 | 0.58 | 0.78 | | P/E（倍） | 39.9 | 54.1 | 45.9 | 28.6 | 21.1 | | P/B（倍） | 8.5 | 8.7 | 7.4 | 6.3 | 5.1 ...

Core Viewpoint - Jinshi Resources reported significant revenue growth in the first half of 2025, but net profit declined due to various factors impacting profitability [1][2][3] Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1.726 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 54.24%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 126 million yuan, down 24.74% [1] - In Q2 2025, revenue reached 867 million yuan, a year-on-year growth of 29.22%, but net profit fell to 59 million yuan, a decrease of 44.63% year-on-year [1][2] AHF Contribution and Profitability Issues - The sales of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid (AHF) contributed to revenue growth, with sales volume increasing by 46,800 tons year-on-year, generating revenue of 906.74 million yuan, up 114.96% [2] - Despite revenue growth, the overall profitability was affected by low industry margins and specific operational challenges, leading to a decline in net profit [2] Project Progress and Production Capacity - The company’s projects are progressing well, with production targets being met. The domestic single fluorite mine produced 185,900 tons, and the Baotou project produced 390,000 tons of fluorite powder [3] - Key projects include the enhancement of mining capabilities at Xiangzhen Mining and the ongoing construction of the Mongolia project, which is expected to start trial production by the end of October 2025 [3] Resource Scale and Industry Position - Jinshi Resources holds a leading position in fluorite resource reserves in China, with approximately 27 million tons of exploitable resources, representing a significant market share [4] - The company operates eight mining rights for single fluorite mines and has a production capacity of 1.12 million tons per year, positioning it as a dominant player in the domestic market [4] Investment Outlook - The company is expected to continue its revenue growth trajectory, with projected revenues of 4.219 billion yuan in 2025, 4.930 billion yuan in 2026, and 5.587 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 53.3%, 16.9%, and 13.3% respectively [6] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 521 million yuan, 706 million yuan, and 908 million yuan, indicating substantial growth potential [6]

Core Viewpoint - Baosteel Co., Ltd. reported significant growth in revenue and profit for the first half of 2025, demonstrating resilience in a challenging steel industry environment [1] Financial Performance - The company achieved operating revenue of 31.329 billion yuan and a total profit of 168 million yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 148.57% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders reached 151 million yuan, up nearly 40% year-on-year, while the non-recurring net profit was 107 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 67.98% [1] Production Capacity and Resources - Baosteel has established an annual production capacity of 17.5 million tons of iron, steel, and related materials, with equipment levels reaching world-class standards [1] - The company possesses a rare earth concentrate production capacity of 450,000 tons and a fluorite concentrate capacity of 650,000 tons, supplying raw materials for the rare earth smelting and fluorochemical industries [1] Market Strategy and Product Development - In response to the steel industry's challenges, Baosteel focused on cost reduction and efficiency improvement, aiming for long-term stable profitability in its core steel business [1] - The company produced 7.0303 million tons of iron, 7.4947 million tons of steel, and 6.9417 million tons of finished products in the first half of the year [1] - Baosteel's strategy includes a shift towards high-value-added products, successfully supplying well-known domestic manufacturers and key national projects, such as the heavy rail for the Sichuan-Chongqing railway [2] Transition to New Materials - The company is accelerating its transformation from a steel manufacturer to a steel new materials service provider, focusing on renewable energy projects and developing a series of rare earth steel new materials [2] - Baosteel aims to enhance its product premium capabilities by meeting the high-performance steel demands of key projects in wind power, hydropower, and hydrogen energy [2] Resource Reserves - Baosteel's controlling shareholder, Baogang Group, has exclusive rights to the Baiyun Obo mine, known as a world-renowned resource treasure, which significantly contributes to the company's resource base [2] - The Baiyun Obo West mine has confirmed iron ore reserves of 660 million tons, and the tailings reservoir contains approximately 200 million tons of resources with a rare earth grade of about 7% [2] Rare Earth Market Insights - According to the China Rare Earth Industry Association, the rare earth price index has shown a stable and gradually recovering trend, with the average price of praseodymium-neodymium oxide increasing by 12.56% year-on-year [3] - In the first half of the year, Baosteel produced 211,100 tons of rare earth concentrate and sold 204,900 tons, with an average selling price of 18,700 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of approximately 700 yuan per ton [3]

Core Viewpoint - In 2024, Baosteel achieved a net profit of 265 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 48.64%, with significant fluctuations in quarterly performance due to industry challenges and pricing pressures [2][4][5]. Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, Baosteel reported revenue of 18.22 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.3%, and a net profit of 781 million yuan, a substantial increase of 1835.1% [2]. - However, in Q1 2025, the company experienced a revenue decline of 13.0% and a net profit drop of 29.3% compared to the same period in 2024 [2][8]. - The overall revenue for the steel smelting sector decreased by 3.51% to 68.089 billion yuan, with a gross margin decline of 1.84 percentage points to 7.88% [4]. Production and Sales - In 2024, Baosteel produced 14.21 million tons of pig iron, 14.99 million tons of steel, and 1.412 million tons of finished products, alongside 377,300 tons of rare earth concentrate and 578,400 tons of fluorite concentrate [4]. - The sales volume of specialty steel increased by 9.65%, and rare earth steel production reached a record high of over 1.5 million tons [4]. Market Conditions - The steel industry faced a "three highs and three lows" situation characterized by high production, high costs, high exports, low demand, low prices, and low efficiency, leading to a phase of "reduction development and stock optimization" [6]. - The average steel price index in China for 2024 was 102.47 points, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 8.39% [6]. Strategic Initiatives - Baosteel plans to accelerate industrial layout optimization focusing on high-end, intelligent, and green transformation, with R&D investment increasing by 47.07% to 3.72 billion yuan in 2024 [3]. - The company aims to adjust its product structure towards high-quality specialty steel and rare earth steel, leveraging resources from the Baiyun Obo area [8][9]. - Baosteel's 2025 production targets include 14.62 million tons of pig iron, 15.64 million tons of crude steel, and 1.476 million tons of finished products, indicating growth compared to 2024 [8]. Financial Health - As of the end of 2024, Baosteel had cash and cash equivalents of 14.088 billion yuan and a debt-to-asset ratio of 60.48%, reflecting a slight increase from the previous year [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.75 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 45.2%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 260 million yuan, a decrease of 26.3% year-on-year [2][5] - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 860 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 91.7%, and a net profit of 70 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.5% [2][5] - The company plans to distribute a total cash dividend of 90 million yuan for 2024, which accounts for 35% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [2][5] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company’s single mine operations generated a revenue of 1.12 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 41.5%, despite a 3.0% decline in revenue year-on-year [11] - The "selection and chemical integration" project saw a significant revenue increase of 300.4%, generating 1.04 billion yuan, although the gross margin was slightly negative at -0.55% [11] - The lithium project faced challenges, with a provision for inventory impairment of 20.16 million yuan, leading to a net loss of 22.32 million yuan attributable to shareholders [11] - The company expects net profits attributable to shareholders to reach 490 million yuan, 690 million yuan, and 850 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [11][12]