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光大期货农产品日报-20251203
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-12-03 06:08
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Corn: Oscillating [1] - Soybean Meal: Oscillating [1] - Oils: Oscillating, with a slightly bullish trend [1] - Eggs: Oscillating [1] - Pigs: Oscillating upwards [2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Corn: On Tuesday, the corn near - month 2601 contract reduced its positions, and funds shifted to the March and May contracts. The futures price continued to oscillate. The price of corn in deep - processing enterprises in North China was weak, while that in Northeast China was still strong. The enthusiasm of farmers to sell grain was average, and the terminal demand was mainly for rigid procurement. With the decrease in temperature, the willingness of deep - processing enterprises to build inventories might increase. In December, be vigilant about the continuous adjustment of corn futures and spot quotes, and short - term long positions should set dynamic stop - profits [1]. - Soybean Meal: On Tuesday, CBOT soybeans closed down due to the lack of supportive news and the expected bumper harvest of South American soybeans. The domestic soybean meal futures continued to oscillate in a narrow range, and the spot price rose and fell. The market trading volume increased slightly, and the wait - and - see sentiment was strong. The strategy is to think in an oscillating way for protein meal, use a unilateral range approach, short the volatility, and conduct inter - month reverse arbitrage [1]. - Oils: On Tuesday, BMD palm oil rose because of the increase in India's palm oil imports. Indian buyers are increasing the purchase of palm oil for near - month shipments. The domestic palm oil led the rise, following the increase in import costs. The oil inventory is at a high level, and the long - term supply is high. It is expected that the basis will remain weak. The spot market trading is light, and the strategy is to participate in short - term long positions [1]. - Eggs: On Tuesday, the egg futures rose and then fell during the session. The short - term supply is still relatively abundant, which limits the room for egg price increase. Under the background of weak egg prices and continuous losses in breeding, the market has an optimistic expectation for future capacity elimination. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading and be vigilant about the risk of the futures price callback if the capacity reduction is less than expected [1]. - Pigs: On Tuesday, the positions of the near - month 2601 contract of pigs decreased, and funds shifted to the 2607 and 2609 contracts. The spot prices of pigs in production areas rose and fell differently. The contradiction between weak spot and strong expectation in the pig market continues. From December to before the Spring Festival, the long and short factors of abundant supply and improving demand are intertwined, and the long - term quotes of pigs are expected to continue the slightly bullish oscillating performance [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Information - India's palm oil imports in November increased by 4.6% month - on - month to 630,000 tons, soybean oil imports decreased by 12% to 400,000 tons, and sunflower oil imports dropped by 44% to 145,000 tons. The total edible oil imports decreased by 11.5% to 1.18 million tons, the lowest level in seven months [3]. - On December 2, the US Soybean Association is actively seeking ways to expand the market demand for US soybeans. The dairy industry is one of the livestock sectors that have recently entered this field, and farmers like to use soybean meal in livestock feed [3]. - Recently, the domestic soybean crushing volume of oil mills is relatively high, and the soybean meal inventory continues to accumulate, approaching the high level of 1.2 million tons. It is expected that the soybean arrivals in December will decrease slightly, the total soybean crushing volume in the whole month will be about 8.6 million tons, and the soybean meal inventory of oil mills at the end of the month will be about 900,000 tons [3]. 3.2 Variety Spreads - **Contract Spreads**: There are spread charts for various varieties such as corn 1 - 5, corn starch 1 - 5, soybeans 1 - 5, soybean meal 1 - 5, etc., but no specific spread data is provided [5][6] - **Contract Basis**: There are basis charts for various varieties such as corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, etc., but no specific basis data is provided [13][16] 3.3 Team Member Introduction - Wang Na, the director of the agricultural product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, has won the "Best Agricultural Product Analyst" title in the Futures Daily and Securities Times' best futures analyst selection for many years. She led the team to win the title of the top ten research and investment teams of the Dalian Commodity Exchange in 2019 and the special prize of the "Sailing in the Futures Sea" college students' practice competition in 2023 [26]. - Hou Xueling, a soybean analyst at Everbright Futures, has won the "Best Agricultural Product Analyst" title for many years. Her team won the title of the most potential agricultural product futures R & D team of the Dalian Commodity Exchange in 2013 and the top ten R & D teams in 2019 [26]. - Kong Hailan, a researcher of eggs and pigs at Everbright Futures Research Institute, has participated in the top ten R & D teams of the Dalian Commodity Exchange in 2019 and won the special prize of the "Sailing in the Futures Sea" college students' practice competition in 2023 [26].