Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - For soybeans, the recovery of Brazilian shipments eases concerns about near - month arrivals, and the acceleration of soybean harvesting in Brazil and improved conditions in Argentina may lead to a narrowing of near - month crushing margins if arrivals are normal and state reserves are released, but the decline space is limited due to high import costs [2] - For oils, short - term oil prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels, and the policy - driven benefits from countries like Indonesia, the US, and Brazil may be realized as crude oil prices remain high. Attention should be paid to changes in the Middle East situation around the end of the month [3] 3. Summary by Related Content Soybean and Soybean Meal - As of March 20, 2026, the harvest progress of 2025/26 Brazilian soybeans was 65.79%, lower than 73.84% in the same period last year and slightly lower than the five - year average of 66.96% [1] - As of the week of March 18, 78% of Argentine soybeans were rated normal to good, with 79% of planting areas having suitable to optimal moisture conditions, which improved due to rainfall in some regions [1] - As of March 20, the total planned shipment of Brazilian soybeans to China from various ports was 8.538009 billion tons, slightly lower than last week but at a record high for the same period in recent years. The total shipment from Brazilian ports to China in March was 6.535711 billion tons, an increase of 2.624315 billion tons from last week [2] Oils - Brazilian biodiesel producers have the capacity to support a 20% blending ratio, and the association calls on the government to allow a higher blending ratio than the legal 15% to buffer energy shocks [2] - Before the policy release, the price of soybean oil futures has risen by 7% since the end of February, and the price of waste cooking oil has soared by more than 14% to 73 cents per pound [3] - Indonesia's B50, the US's new biofuel policy, and Brazil's B20 are all in preparation, and policy - driven benefits may be realized as crude oil prices remain high [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential impacts of the ongoing conflict in Iran on global commodity markets, emphasizing that prolonged conflict could lead to significant supply chain disruptions and price volatility across various sectors, including energy, metals, and agriculture [2][9]. Energy Sector - Bank of America (BofA) views the Strait of Hormuz as a critical chokepoint for oil and refined products, with a potential restoration leading to price declines, while a slow recovery could necessitate higher risk premiums for oil pricing [5][12]. - The report outlines four scenarios for oil prices by 2026, with a base case average of $77.50 per barrel, and extreme scenarios suggesting prices could peak at $240 per barrel if the conflict extends [9][11]. - The report indicates that the refined oil market may experience even more severe impacts than crude oil due to a lack of strategic reserves [11]. Metals Sector - The aluminum market is projected to face significant deficits, with estimates of 1.2 million tons in a quick resolution scenario, escalating to 5 million tons if the conflict extends into the second half of 2026, with prices potentially reaching $4,000 per ton [8][15]. - Copper production may be affected by sulfur supply disruptions, with a baseline deficit of 45,300 tons expected by 2026, which could expand significantly if sulfur supplies are cut off [16]. - Zinc is expected to remain in surplus this year, limiting price increases, while nickel prices are projected to range between $15,000 and $20,000 per ton [8][16]. Agricultural Sector - The report highlights that fertilizer prices, particularly urea, have surged by 30%-40% due to supply chain disruptions, with the Gulf region contributing significantly to global urea exports [21][22]. - Corn is identified as the most vulnerable crop, with U.S. planting area expected to decrease, potentially leading to higher prices above $6 per bushel if nitrogen fertilizer shortages persist [22]. - Wheat is positioned as a hedge against food security, with price forecasts adjusted upward due to the ongoing conflict and its impact on supply chains [22]. Broader Commodity Impacts - The report emphasizes that the conflict's impact is not limited to oil and gas but extends to chemicals and coal, with potential shifts in energy consumption patterns as countries may revert to coal if LNG supplies are constrained [20]. - The agricultural sector is expected to see systemic risks due to concentrated urea supply chains, with significant implications for global food prices and availability [21][22]. - Gold prices are projected to reach $6,000 per ounce under certain scenarios, particularly if high inflation and economic stagnation persist [25][27]. Market Dynamics - BofA notes that the market has not fully priced in several factors, including the volatility of oil and aluminum, suggesting that long-term contracts may reflect the true impact of supply disruptions more accurately [29]. - The report indicates that energy prices could trigger a global recession if they exceed $160 per barrel, leading to significant declines in metal prices [29].

Core Viewpoint - Saudi Arabia has begun to cut oil production due to saturated storage facilities, leading to a significant rise in international oil prices, which have increased by approximately 60% since the escalation of the US-Iran conflict [1][3]. Group 1: Oil Price Impact - On March 9, international oil prices surged, with Brent crude reaching a peak of $119.5 per barrel, marking a substantial increase [1]. - The rapid increase in oil prices has led to a rise in costs for petrochemical products and disrupted the price relationship between crude oil and other energy products, causing a broad increase in the energy market [1][5]. - The coal and oilseed sectors have seen significant price increases, with coal and oilseed futures rising by 7.53% and 6.09%, respectively, following the oil price surge [5]. Group 2: Energy Market Dynamics - The relationship between crude oil and other commodities, such as coal and vegetable oils, is influenced by the rising oil prices, which enhance the attractiveness of alternatives like coal for producing chemicals [5][7]. - The economic viability of coal chemical processes improves significantly when Brent crude prices exceed $80 per barrel, indicating a strong profitability zone for coal-based production [5]. - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have increased the appeal of vegetable oils, such as palm oil, as raw materials for biodiesel, leading to a spike in palm oil futures [7][8]. Group 3: Supply Chain and Market Risks - The ongoing conflict in the Middle East poses risks to the supply chain, potentially affecting domestic markets, including livestock feed costs, as rising oil prices impact the prices of feed ingredients like soybean meal [8][10]. - Despite the short-term price increases in coal and oilseed futures, the underlying supply-demand dynamics and external uncertainties could lead to increased volatility in these markets [10][12]. - The domestic coal market remains largely self-sufficient, with a 90% self-supply ratio, which may mitigate some external price pressures compared to oil products [12].

Market Focus - The Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers Association (SPPOMA) reported that Malaysia's palm oil yield from February 1-25, 2026, decreased by 16.78% month-on-month, while the extraction rate increased by 0.1%, and production fell by 16.25% compared to the same period last month [1] - According to independent inspection agency AmSpec, Malaysia's palm oil exports from February 1-25 amounted to 922,649 tons, a decrease of 16.05% from 1,099,033 tons in the same period last month [1] - Shipping survey agency ITS reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports for the same period were 1,022,673 tons, down 12.1% from 1,163,634 tons last month [1] - The Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA) estimated a 12.29% decrease in palm oil production from February 1-20, with reductions of 10.74% in Peninsular Malaysia, 15.23% in Sabah, 11.20% in Sarawak, and 14.19% in Borneo [1] - The Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) noted that despite challenges such as the delay of Indonesia's B50 biodiesel mandate and high Malaysian inventories, palm oil prices remained above 4,000 ringgit per ton throughout January, indicating a potential short-term structural bottom for current prices [1] Daily Oilseed Processing Data - In January 2026, Canada's canola processing volume was 1,053,420 tons, a decrease of 2.17% from the previous month but an increase of 4.24% year-on-year [2] OPEC+ Meeting Insights - OPEC+ representatives indicated that the organization is likely to agree on a slight production increase during the upcoming meeting to review April policies, with a potential increase of 137,000 barrels per day being considered for April [2] Market Review - The strong rise in U.S. soybeans, reaching a three-month high, provided significant support for soybean oil costs, while palm oil showed a weaker trend due to poor export data reflecting seasonal demand decline post-Ramadan [5] - As a result, the price spread between soybean oil and palm oil continued to adjust, with the main May contract spread approaching -500 yuan per ton at the close [5]

Market Overview - The Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers Association (SPPOMA) reported that Malaysia's palm oil yield from February 1-20, 2026, decreased by 23.82% month-on-month, while the extraction rate increased by 0.3%. Overall production dropped by 22.24% compared to the same period last month [1] - According to independent inspection agency AmSpec, Malaysia's palm oil exports from February 1-25 amounted to 922,649 tons, a decrease of 16.05% from 1,099,033 tons in the same period last month [1] - The Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA) estimated a 12.29% reduction in palm oil production from February 1-20, with declines of 10.74% in Peninsular Malaysia, 15.23% in Sabah, 11.20% in Sarawak, and 14.19% in Borneo [1] Regulatory Developments - Indonesia urged the EU to comply with the WTO ruling regarding palm oil disputes to restore market access for Indonesian palm oil products. The deadline for the EU to adjust its policies was set for February 24, 2026 [2] - The Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) indicated that tightening supply, improving demand, and stable U.S. soybean oil prices may support palm oil prices between 4,000 to 4,300 ringgit per ton in March, although global soybean supply and increased soybean oil exports from China may limit price increases [2] Agricultural Forecasts - The USDA's Grain and Oilseed Outlook released on February 19 predicts an increase in soybean production and planting area for the 2026-2027 season. Soybean oil production for biofuel is expected to rise by approximately 17%. Overall U.S. soybean supply is projected to grow by 5% due to increased beginning stocks and production [3] - The USDA forecasts an increase of nearly 4 million acres in soybean planting area, reflecting higher profitability compared to other crops. Assuming normal weather conditions, the average yield is expected to be 53 bushels per acre, resulting in a total production increase of 188 million bushels to 4.45 billion bushels [3] Biofuel Policy Updates - The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is expected to submit the 2026 Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO) proposal to the White House for final review. The proposed RVO for the year may be significantly raised to between 5.2 billion and 5.6 billion gallons, indicating a substantial increase from the 2025 target [3][6] - This strong policy signal is anticipated to lock in future demand for soybean oil and other major biofuel feedstocks, contributing to a sustained increase in U.S. soybean oil prices, which has led domestic soybean oil prices to rise [6]

Group 1 - The benchmark price of soybean oil on February 23 is 8354.00 CNY per ton, which represents a decrease of 3.31% compared to the beginning of the month when it was 8640.00 CNY per ton [1] - The daily price remains unchanged with a daily increase of 0.00% [3] - The price range over the past year is considered to be at a medium-high level, with a minimum value of 7904.00 CNY and a maximum value of 8648.00 CNY [3] Group 2 - The median price during this period is 8276 CNY, with an average price of 8316.04 CNY [3] - The top price difference from the average is -294 CNY, while the bottom price difference is 450 CNY [3]

Group 1 - The benchmark price of soybean oil on February 20 is 8354.00 CNY per ton, which represents a decrease of 3.31% compared to the beginning of the month when it was 8640.00 CNY per ton [1] - The daily price remains unchanged with a daily increase of 0.00% [3] - The price range over the past year is considered to be at a medium-high level, with a minimum price of 7904.00 CNY and a maximum price of 8648.00 CNY [3] Group 2 - The median price for soybean oil is recorded at 8276.00 CNY, with a top price difference of -294.00 CNY and a bottom price difference of 450.00 CNY [3] - The average price for soybean oil is 8316.22 CNY [3]

Core Insights - The supply of essential food items in Jiangsu province is sufficient and prices are generally stable as the Spring Festival approaches, with a monitoring report indicating that out of 97 key food items, 54 saw price increases, 5 remained stable, and 38 experienced price declines [1] Group 1: Grain and Oil Prices - The prices of staple grains and oils remain stable, with specific prices for Northeast grade japonica rice, Northern Jiangsu grade japonica rice, and premium flour averaging 3.22 yuan, 2.69 yuan, and 2.96 yuan per 500 grams, showing a decrease of 0.3%, stable, and stable respectively [2] - The prices for 5L containers of first-grade rapeseed oil, peanut oil, and soybean oil are 81.71 yuan, 142.19 yuan, and 60.64 yuan, reflecting decreases of 1.0%, 0.6%, and 0.1% respectively [2] Group 2: Meat and Egg Prices - Prices for major meat products have seen slight increases due to pre-festival stocking demands, with lean pork and boneless hind leg pork priced at 14.54 yuan and 12.58 yuan, rising by 3.0% and 3.4% respectively [3] - Fresh bone-in lamb and beef shank prices are at 35.22 yuan and 46.25 yuan, increasing by 2.5% and 0.9%, marking a new high for the past year [3] - The price of whole chickens is 10.78 yuan, up by 0.5%, while egg prices have surged by 13.9% to 4.60 yuan [3] Group 3: Aquatic Products - Prices for freshwater fish show mixed trends, with grass carp and crucian carp priced at 9.89 yuan and 12.60 yuan, increasing by 5.1% and 4.4% respectively [4] - Conversely, prices for white catfish and flower catfish are 4.87 yuan and 9.70 yuan, decreasing by 1.2% and 0.7% [4] Group 4: Vegetable Prices - Vegetable prices are generally stable, with a total of 32 monitored vegetables showing 16 price increases and 16 decreases, maintaining an average retail price of 4.96 yuan [5] - Notable price increases include thin-skinned green peppers, winter melons, and Chinese cabbages, which rose by 9.9%, 9.2%, and 8.0% respectively, with winter melons reaching a three-year high [5] - Conversely, cauliflower, broccoli, and celery saw price declines of 16.4%, 7.2%, and 7.0% respectively [5] Group 5: Fruit Prices - Fruit prices are predominantly on the rise, with 4 out of 5 monitored fruits increasing in price, leading to an average retail price of 4.78 yuan, up by 1.5% [6] - Specific prices for bananas and navel oranges are 4.03 yuan and 4.98 yuan, reflecting increases of 8.3% and a decrease of 5.0% respectively [6]

Core Insights - The article highlights the increased production capacity of Tianjin grain and oil companies during the extended Spring Festival holiday to ensure supply [1] Group 1: Production and Supply - The production of edible oil increases by approximately 14,000 tons for each additional day of the holiday [1] - The company has expanded its market by adding nearly 10 new chain restaurant brands in Beijing and tapping into county-level markets in Hebei, resulting in a 20% increase in order volume [1] - From January, the number of supply ships arriving at the company has increased by 133% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Operational Efficiency - All six production lines in the company's factory are operating 24 hours a day, producing soybean oil, flaxseed oil, corn oil, and other supply products [2] - The company has improved the unloading capacity of grain unloading machines to enhance operational efficiency [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent trade agreement between the US and India marks a significant reduction in tariffs, facilitating deeper economic cooperation and market access for both nations [1][2][3]. Group 1: Tariff Adjustments - The US has implemented an 18% "reciprocal tariff rate" on Indian-origin goods, a substantial decrease from previous rates that could reach 50% or more [3][21]. - India has committed to significantly lowering tariffs on a range of US industrial and agricultural products, including specific items that benefit US agricultural states and manufacturing hubs [4][5][6]. Group 2: Non-Tariff Barriers - India has agreed to address long-standing non-tariff barriers that have hindered US companies, including the import licensing process for medical devices and market access restrictions for ICT products [7][8]. - The agreement includes a commitment from India to evaluate the adoption of US standards or international testing requirements within six months of the agreement's effectiveness [9]. Group 3: Strategic Goals - The US aims to expand exports, deepen market access, and strengthen regulatory frameworks, seeking not only to sell more products but also to lower entry barriers for US workers and producers in India [13][14][15]. - The agreement reflects a broader strategy where both countries are positioning themselves for future economic and technological collaboration, moving beyond mere tariff reductions [12][32]. Group 4: Procurement Commitments - A notable aspect of the agreement is the procurement commitment of $500 billion over five years, which includes high-value items such as energy, aircraft parts, and technology products [26][27]. - This procurement list is seen as a means to translate political agreements into tangible business contracts, particularly in the technology sector [28][29]. Group 5: Energy and Geopolitical Considerations - The agreement subtly ties tariff reductions to India's commitment to reduce imports of Russian oil, indicating a complex geopolitical exchange [35][37]. - India is gradually diversifying its oil supply sources, reflecting a strategic approach to balance its energy needs while maintaining relations with both the US and Russia [41][53]. Group 6: Future Cooperation and Challenges - The agreement is viewed as a first step towards a more comprehensive bilateral trade deal, with mechanisms in place to adjust commitments if either party alters its tariff arrangements [49][66]. - The real test will be whether the commitments translate into effective execution, particularly in areas like non-tariff barriers and digital trade rules [64][65].