农产品日报（2025 年 8 月 27 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周二，玉米主力 2511 合约增仓盘整，期价收十字星，价格呈现震荡表现。与上 | | | | 周相比，本周玉米现货报价表现疲软。东北玉米价格向新粮靠拢，目前以持续下 | | | | 调为主，市场对新季玉米的价格目前暂持谨慎之态，新季玉米干粮价格预估低于 | | | | 目前干粮价格。近期山东深加工企业玉米到货量有所增加，企业价格窄幅下调， | | | | 昨日部分企业继续下跌，但下跌范围明显缩小。当前华北本地陈玉米和春玉米以 | | | | 及早期玉米、东北玉米共同供应市场，虽然陈粮库存少，但粮源供应多样化。下 | | | 玉米 | 游企业采购意愿较弱，控制采购节奏。销区市场玉米价格部分港口下跌 10-20 | 震荡 | | | 元/吨，市场整体采购心态偏弱，饲料厂维持观望心态为主，港口走货速度偏慢， | | | | 贸易商报价下调，短期市场需求难有较大回暖。技术上，11 月合约成为主力合 | | | | 约，新粮上市的供应压力继续影响市场，玉米期价近月合约领跌、远期合 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Corn is expected to show a weak - oscillating trend. On Monday, corn's weighted contract positions increased while the futures price was weak. Spot trading weakened with prices in Northeast China, North China, and sales areas showing a weak - stable trend. The 9 - month contract fell below 2300 yuan, and the 1 - month contract is under pressure due to expected high yields [2]. - Soybean meal is expected to oscillate. CBOT soybean futures rose on Monday, but US soybeans are restricted by large global supplies. In China, soybean meal supply is sufficient, and inventory is rising, but the market expects the inventory peak to pass and the basis to gradually return. A narrow - range oscillation is expected, and 11 - 1, 1 - 5 positive spreads can be considered [2]. - Oils are expected to oscillate. BMD palm oil fell on Monday due to concerns about increased production and inventory. In China, the market sentiment is weak, with palm oil falling and soybean oil relatively stable. The overall oils market shows an internal - strong and external - weak pattern, and an intraday trading strategy is recommended [2]. - Eggs are expected to show a weak - oscillating trend. The increase in the number of laying hens has led to a bearish sentiment. On Monday, the near - month egg contracts fell significantly, and the spot price also declined. The fundamental bearish pattern remains unchanged, and the futures price may weaken further [2]. - Pigs are expected to oscillate. The 2509 pig futures contract showed a slight decline on Monday. The supply of pigs is increasing, but terminal demand is weak. Policy support exists, so the price is expected to oscillate. The futures and spot prices are at the important 14000 - yuan/ton level [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information - India's palm oil imports in July decreased by 10% month - on - month to 858,000 tons, while soybean oil imports increased by 38% to 495,000 tons, and sunflower oil imports decreased by 7% to 201,000 tons. The total edible oil imports increased by 1.5% to 1.53 million tons [4]. - As of August 1, 2025 (week 31), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key Chinese regions was 582,200 tons, a decrease of 33,300 tons (5.41%) from the previous week and an increase of 3400 tons (0.59%) from the same period last year [4]. - According to SGS, Malaysia's estimated palm oil exports from July 1 - 31 were 896,362 tons, a 25.01% decrease from the same period last month [4]. - Reuters survey shows that Malaysia's estimated palm oil inventory in July 2025 was 2.25 million tons (up 10.8% from June), production was 1.83 million tons (up 8% from June), and exports were 1.3 million tons (up 3.2% from June) [4]. - In July, the concentrated arrival of imported soybeans in China led to high oil - mill operating rates. The total soybean crushing volume was 10.1 million tons, basically the same as the previous month and a 14.59% increase year - on - year [5]. 3.2 Variety Spreads - The report presents multiple charts of contract spreads, including those of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs [7][9][10][13]. - The report also presents multiple charts of contract basis, including those of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs [15][19][25][27].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings for Different Agricultural Products - Corn: Oscillating weakly [2] - Soybean Meal: Oscillating [2] - Oils: Oscillating [2] - Eggs: Oscillating weakly [2] - Pigs: Oscillating [3] 2. Core Views - Corn: This week, the main corn contract reduced positions and adjusted. The funds of the September contract shifted to the January contract. The bearish factor of good weather during the growth period influenced market sentiment, and the corn futures price showed a weak performance. Northeast corn prices remained stable, and the impact of imported corn auctions on the market was relatively limited. In the Northeast production area, there was a small amount of supply, and the downstream trading activity was poor. In North China, corn prices generally showed a stable - to - strong trend. Technically, the September contract rebounded to the previous intensive trading area of 2320 - 2330 yuan/ton this week, but was suppressed by the technical resistance level and then declined again. Short - term attention should be paid to the effectiveness of the 2300 yuan/ton support for the September contract, and a medium - term downward trend is expected [2]. - Soybean Meal: On Thursday, CBOT soybeans closed at the lowest level since April due to favorable crop weather in the US for a bumper harvest and sufficient global supply. Domestic protein meal prices declined as domestic commodities generally fell and funds withdrew from the market. The Sino - US negotiation maintained the suspension of the 24% tariff, but did not mention soybean purchases, which led to concerns about the long - term supply of soybean meal. Strategically, soybean meal is expected to oscillate narrowly, and investors can participate in the 11 - 1 and 1 - 5 positive spreads [2]. - Oils: On Thursday, BMD palm oil prices fell, ending a two - day upward trend. High - frequency data showed that Malaysian palm oil exports in July decreased by 6.7% - 9.6% month - on - month. Indonesia raised the reference price of crude palm oil in August, leading to an increase in export tariffs. Domestically, the market sentiment was weak, and the futures prices of oils declined. The decline in the outer market led to a decrease in import costs, which also pressured the prices. The inventory of palm oil was limited, and the inventory of rapeseed oil decreased. The oils market showed a pattern of strong domestic and weak overseas, which was conducive to restoring import profits. Strategically, short - term trading is recommended [2]. - Eggs: On Thursday, influenced by surrounding commodities, the egg futures price oscillated and closed down. The spot price of eggs decreased slightly. The short - term fundamental situation was still bearish, and the market sentiment was pessimistic. In the future, as the egg market enters the peak season, demand will have a positive impact on egg prices. However, considering the high inventory and cold - stored eggs, the peak egg price is likely to be lower than that of last year [2][3]. - Pigs: On Thursday, the main pig contract 2509 oscillated during the session and finally closed flat. The spot price of pigs increased slightly. As pig prices continued to adjust, the mentality of farmers to support prices became stronger, and the slaughter volume decreased. The policy provided support for pig prices, so a short - term oscillating trend is expected. Attention should be paid to whether the short - term rebound in spot prices can continue and the impact of market sentiment changes on the futures market after the spot price rebounds [3]. 3. Market Information - Argentina reduced the export tariffs on soybean oil and soybean meal from 31% to 24.5% [4]. - As of July 23, the national average ex - factory price of pigs was 14.78 yuan/kg, a 1.20% decrease from July 16, and the pig - grain ratio was 6.16, a 1.12% decrease from July 16 [4]. - The Indian Vegetable Oil Producers Association (IVPA) stated that Indian vegetable oil importers were increasing palm oil purchases to meet the expected surge in demand during the festival season as global prices declined [4]. - According to the data of the shipping survey agency ITS, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil from July 1 - 31 was 1,289,727 tons, a 6.71% decrease compared to the same period last month [4]. - Indonesia set the reference price of crude palm oil (CPO) in August at $910.91 per metric ton, higher than $877.89 in July [4]. - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange decided to suspend the designated rapeseed oil delivery warehouse business of Sichuan Grain and Oil Wholesale Center Direct - affiliated Reserve Depot Co., Ltd. and Central Reserve Grain Sichuan Xinjin Direct - affiliated Depot Co., Ltd., and resume the rapeseed oil delivery warehouse business of China Grain Reserves (Hefei) Reserve Co., Ltd. It also added Chengdu Grain Group Co., Ltd. as a rapeseed oil delivery warehouse and COFCO Oils (Chengdu) Co., Ltd. as a rapeseed oil delivery factory warehouse [5]. 4. Variety Spreads - **Contract Spreads**: The report presents the 9 - 1 spreads of various agricultural products such as corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs through multiple charts [6][7][9][10][13]. - **Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis of various agricultural products including corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs through multiple charts [14][15][19][25][27]. 5. Research Team Introduction - Wang Na is the director of the agricultural product research department at Everbright Futures Research Institute, the leader of the top ten research and investment teams of the Dalian Commodity Exchange. She has won the "Best Agricultural Product Analyst" title in the Futures Daily and Securities Times Best Futures Analyst Awards for many years [29]. - Hou Xueling is an analyst of soybeans at Everbright Futures, with more than ten years of futures trading experience. She has also won the "Best Agricultural Product Analyst" title in relevant awards for many years [29]. - Kong Hailan, a master of economics, is currently a researcher of the egg and pig industries at Everbright Futures Research Institute [29].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report provides daily insights into the feed and aquaculture industry including price movements of various agricultural products and offers corresponding trading strategies. It analyzes the supply - demand dynamics of products such as pigs, eggs, palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, and corn, and expects a short - term correction but a long - term bullish trend for oils. [1][2][5][8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pigs - On July 23, the spot price of pigs in Liaoning was 14 - 14.6 yuan/kg, down 0.1 yuan/kg from the previous day; in Henan, it was 14.2 - 14.5 yuan/kg, also down 0.1 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was stable at 13.5 - 13.7 yuan/kg; in Guangdong, it was stable at 15.6 - 16.2 yuan/kg. The short - term supply - demand game is intensifying, and the pig price fluctuates within a narrow range. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply pressure in the second half of the year is still high, and the price rebound is under pressure. [1] - Futures prices are rising due to macro - bullish sentiment, but the supply - demand pressure remains. The pressure levels for contracts 09, 11, and 01 are 14500 - 14700, 14000 - 14200, and 14400 respectively. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, and consider shorting contracts 11 and 01 on rebounds, and also pay attention to the short 09/11 and long 01 arbitrage. [1] Eggs - On July 23, the egg price in Shandong Dezhou was 3.25 yuan/jin, up 0.1 yuan/jin from the previous day; in Beijing, it was 3.39 yuan/jin, up 0.12 yuan/jin. In the short - term, high - temperature weather reduces the egg - laying rate, and demand is expected to pick up seasonally, driving up the egg price, but supply - side factors limit the increase. [2] - In the medium - term, the high number of chicks replenished from April to June 2025 means more laying hens will start production from August to October 2025, and the supply increase trend may be hard to reverse. In the long - term, the enthusiasm for chick replenishment has declined, and the number of new - laying hens may decrease. [2] - The current 09 basis is still low, and the futures market is highly volatile. It is recommended to wait for spot price guidance. If the spot price increase slows down, consider shorting at high prices. For the fourth - quarter contracts 12 and 01, consider going long at low prices, and pay attention to feed prices and hen culling. [2] Oils - On July 22, the US soybean oil December contract fell 0.57% to 55.48 cents/lb due to falling international crude oil prices; the Malaysian palm oil October contract rose 0.88% to 4263 ringgit/ton, driven by the strength of US soybean oil but limited by falling crude oil and other edible oil markets. [4] - For palm oil, the June MPOB report showed an increase in ending stocks, but the market focused on the strong import demand in major consuming countries in June. In July, although exports decreased and production increased, Indonesian biodiesel news, potential lower - than - expected production in Indonesia, and import demand from China and India supported the short - term bullish trend. The 10 - contract is expected to face resistance at 4300 - 4400. In China, palm oil stocks have risen, and new purchases in August are being watched. [5] - For soybean oil, as of mid - July, the growth of US soybeans in the 25/26 season is good. Although there will be high - temperature weather in the next 1 - 2 weeks, there will also be precipitation. The US soybean oil is strong due to the RVO draft from the EPA and potential trade negotiations. In China, soybean oil stocks are expected to accumulate in July, and the long - term supply depends on future soybean purchases. [6] - For rapeseed oil, the growth of Canadian rapeseed is improving, but there is still a risk of drought. Sino - Canadian relations may lead to an increase in Australian rapeseed imports. In China, rapeseed oil stocks are gradually decreasing, and the impact of Australian rapeseed imports needs to be monitored. [7] - Overall, although there was a correction in domestic oils due to factors such as falling international crude oil prices and reduced palm oil exports, the correction is limited, and oils are expected to be bullish after the correction. Palm oil is expected to be the strongest, followed by soybean oil, and rapeseed oil may be relatively weak. It is recommended to buy on dips for the 09 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils, paying attention to the support levels of 8000, 8900, and 9400 respectively. [8][9] Soybean Meal - On July 22, the US soybean 11 - contract fell 0.5 cents to 1025.5 cents/bu, and the domestic soybean meal was stronger than US soybeans due to the expected destocking after August and tariff factors. The M2509 contract closed at 3086 yuan/ton. [9] - In the short - term, the good precipitation in the US soybean - growing areas and high soybean quality limit the upward movement of US soybeans. In China, high soybean arrivals and high - volume crushing lead to inventory accumulation, limiting the increase in the spot price of soybean meal. The basis is expected to be weak, with a bottom around 09 - 200 yuan/ton in the East China region. The M2509 contract is trading on the destocking expectation. [9] - In the medium - to - long - term, there may be a supply gap from October to January, and attention should be paid to import policies and volumes. It is recommended to reduce long positions in the short - term for the M2509 contract and go long on the M2511 and M2601 contracts at low prices in the medium - to - long - term. [9] Corn - On July 22, the purchase price of new corn at Jinzhou Port was 2290 yuan/ton, and the平仓 price was 2330 yuan/ton; in Shandong Weifang Xingmao, the purchase price was 2522 yuan/ton, both stable from the previous day. [9] - In the short - term, policy - grain releases increase supply, but reduced selling willingness and inventory depletion support the price. However, the availability of alternative feedstocks limits the upward space. In the medium - term, there was a production reduction in the 24/25 season, and the supply - demand situation tightened, but policy releases and alternative feedstocks limit price increases. In the long - term, the 25/26 corn planting is stable, and costs have decreased. [9] - It is recommended to be cautious about going long on the 09 contract in the short - term and wait for spot price guidance. Also, pay attention to the 9 - 1 reverse - spread arbitrage opportunity. [9] Today's Futures Market Overview - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, and trading information of various futures and spot products including CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, CBOT corn, etc. [10]

农产品日报（2025 年 6 月 13 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 玉米 | 周四，玉米近月合约减仓调整，期价以小阴线收盘，在周初连续两日快速拉升之 后，期价在前高位置承压，短期呈现调整表现。东北玉米现货报价仍以上涨为主， 虽成交偏淡，但并不影响贸易商心态。拍卖玉米成交价格也较高，对市场也有一 | | | | 定的支撑。华北地区玉米价格继续维持偏强运行。山东深加工早间玉米到货车辆 | | | | 有所增加，但依然维持低位，山东深加工玉米收购价格继续上涨 10-20 元/吨。 | | | | 河南地区本粮源出货，部分山西粮源流入，市场整体供应尚可，价格维持稳定。 | | | | 销区市场玉米价格继续大范围上涨 10-30 元/吨。期货表现继续偏强，产区贸易 | 震荡 | | | 商挺价心态较浓，报价继续上调。下游饲料企业采购一般，小麦替代优势仍较大， | | | | 玉米多刚需采购。技术上，玉米近月合约空头主力减仓离场，期价快速拉升，现 | | | | 货强势对期货的提振体现出来，近月率先领涨，近远月价差拉大。其后，远月跟 | | | | 随 ...

Research Views Corn - The corn main contract increased in price with reduced positions on Wednesday. The July contract encountered resistance at the previous high. Spot prices in the Northeast continued to rise by 20 - 40 yuan/ton in the past two days. Deep - processing enterprises in the production area and North China also raised purchase prices. Shandong's deep - processing arrivals remained low, and prices increased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton. Hebei's prices went up by 15 - 30 yuan/ton, while Henan's were basically stable. Prices in the sales area rose widely, but high - price corn had limited transactions, and wheat substitution continued. Technically, short - position holders in the near - month contract reduced their positions, leading to a rapid increase in futures prices. The July contract might face a phased adjustment due to profit - taking [1]. Soybean and Soybean Meal - CBOT soybeans declined on Wednesday. Market participants focused on the favorable weather in the US. The USDA's May estimate of the US 2024/25 soybean ending stocks was 3.51 billion bushels, and for 2025/26 it was 2.98 billion bushels. Globally, the 2025/26 soybean ending stocks were estimated at 1.2454 billion tons. Domestically, protein meal continued to increase with more positions. There were differences between long and short positions. The operation suggestion was to hold long spreads for soybean meal 91 and 15 contracts and maintain a long - only mindset [1]. Oils - BMD palm oil dropped to a two - week low on Wednesday, affected by weak international oil prices and increased May - end inventory. Malaysian palm oil production in May was 177 million tons, 5% higher than expected. High - frequency data showed that exports from June 1 - 10 increased by 8.1% - 32.7% month - on - month, while production decreased by 17.24%. In Canada, canola prices rose due to dry weather, but upcoming precipitation was beneficial for crop growth. International crude oil prices increased by 4%. Domestically, oils were weak, with palm oil falling below 8000 yuan. The operation suggestion was short - term participation and buying September and selling January for soybean oil and palm oil [1][2]. Eggs - The main egg 2508 contract fluctuated at a low level on Wednesday, rising 0.06% to 3515 yuan/500 kilograms, while the 2509 contract continued to decline, falling 0.47%. Spot prices decreased. Terminal demand was weak, and supply was expected to increase before August. It was recommended to wait and see, paying attention to changes in culling intention and feed raw material prices [2]. Pigs - The pig 9 - month contract fluctuated and formed a doji on Wednesday. Spot prices were stable. Due to insufficient terminal demand and farmers' resistance to selling, the market was in a supply - demand game. Technically, it was recommended to focus on the 13500 - yuan support level of the 9 - month contract and maintain a short - term long mindset [2]. Market Information - US President Trump called on the Fed to cut interest rates by 1% after the release of good CPI data [3]. - China and the US reached a framework on implementing the consensus of the leaders' phone call and Geneva talks [3]. - SPPOMA data showed that Malaysian palm oil production from June 1 - 10, 2025 decreased by 17.24% [3]. - EU and UK's 2025/26 rapeseed production was estimated to remain at 20.4 million tons, but there was a drought risk in Poland [3]. - Indonesia was expected to increase palm oil exports to 25 million tons in 2025, with production recovery and stable international demand [4]. Variety Spreads Contract Spreads - Included spreads of contracts like corn 9 - 1, corn starch 9 - 1, etc., but no specific spread data was provided [5][6][8] Contract Basis - Included basis of contracts such as corn, corn starch, etc., but no specific basis data was provided [13][14][18]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall supply-demand pattern in the feed and aquaculture industry is complex, with different products facing various short - term, medium - term, and long - term supply and demand situations, resulting in different price trends and investment strategies [1][2][4][8][9]. Summary by Product 1. Pig - **Price Situation**: On June 11, the spot prices in Liaoning, Henan, Sichuan, and Guangdong were 13.9 - 14.2 yuan/kg, 13.8 - 14.4 yuan/kg, 13.8 - 14 yuan/kg, and 15 - 15.4 yuan/kg respectively, with prices in Liaoning rising and those in other regions remaining stable [1]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: In the short term, the supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged. There is still significant pressure on pig slaughter in June, and the seasonal demand off - season is emerging. In the long term, the supply from June to September is expected to increase, and the supply pressure in the fourth quarter is still high [1]. - **Strategy**: The futures market is in a state of discount. In the short term, it will fluctuate at a low level. It is advisable to short at the resistance level after a rebound [1]. 2. Egg - **Price Situation**: On June 11, the prices in Shandong Dezhou and Beijing were 2.5 yuan/jin and 2.78 yuan/jin respectively, both showing a decline [2]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: In the short term, the demand is seasonally weakening, and the supply is still relatively sufficient. In the medium term, the supply is expected to increase in the future. In the long term, the supply pressure may ease in the fourth quarter [2]. - **Strategy**: Temporarily observe the 07 contract. For the 08 and 09 contracts, take a bearish view and short at high levels after a rebound. Look for long opportunities for the 10 contract at low levels [2]. 3. Oil - **Price Situation**: On June 10, the US soybean oil main contract rose, the Malaysian palm oil main contract fell, and domestic palm oil and soybean oil prices mostly declined while rapeseed oil prices rose [4]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The fundamentals of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are all mixed. Palm oil has limited upside potential due to seasonal production increases. Soybean oil is under supply pressure but has some support. Rapeseed oil has short - term supply pressure but may see inventory reduction in the long term [5][6][7]. - **Strategy**: The 09 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oil will fluctuate in the short term. Consider the oil - meal ratio shrinking strategy [8]. 4. Soybean Meal - **Price Situation**: On June 10, the US soybean 07 contract rose, and the domestic soybean meal futures price also increased [8]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: In the short term, the US soybean price is strong due to weather factors, while the domestic supply is increasing. In the long term, the cost increase and weather factors will drive the price to rise steadily [8]. - **Strategy**: Go long on the M2509 contract at low levels and hold existing long positions [8]. 5. Corn - **Price Situation**: On June 10, the new corn purchase price in Jinzhou Port rose, and the price in Shandong Weifang remained stable [9]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: In the short term, the supply - demand game intensifies, and the price has support. In the long term, the supply - demand situation tightens, but the price increase is limited by substitutes [9]. - **Strategy**: Take a bullish view overall. For the 07 contract, go long at the lower end of the range. Consider the 7 - 9 positive spread arbitrage [9]. 6. Today's Futures Market Overview - The table shows the price changes of various futures and spot products such as CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, CBOT corn, etc. from the previous trading day [10].

产业服务总部 饲料养殖团队 2025-06-10 饲料养殖产业日报 日度观点 ◆生猪： 6 月 10 日辽宁现货 13.7-14.2 元/公斤，较上一日涨 0.1 元/公斤；河南 13.8-14.1 元/公斤，较上一日涨 0.1 元/公斤；四川 13.7-13.9 元/公斤，较 上一日稳定；广东 15-15.4 元/公斤，较上一日稳定，今日早间全国生猪价 格稳中有涨。猪价连续下跌破 14 元/公斤后市场抗价惜售，且 6 月 11 日国 家收储 1 万吨猪肉（此前是轮换），也提振市场情绪，支撑猪价。但 6 月生 猪出栏压力仍大，叠加生猪体重偏高，随着气温升高和院校放假，季节性需 求淡季显现，且屠企加工利润仍亏损，整体消费难有好的表现，供强需弱格 局未改，猪价上方仍承压，短期猪价维持震荡整理，关注企业出栏节奏、二 育和冻品入库、体重变化。中长期来看，虽然近期行业会议让产业降能繁、 降体重、不让继续二育，受此影响远月期价上涨，但能繁母猪存栏 2024 年 5-11 月缓增，生产性能提升，在疫情平稳情况下，6-9 月供应呈增加态 势，且 2024 年 12 月开始，生猪产能虽有所去化，不过行业有利润，去化 幅度有限， ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Corn: Oscillating weakly [1] - Soybean Meal: Oscillating upwards [1] - Edible Oils: Oscillating downwards [1] - Eggs: Oscillating weakly [1] - Live Pigs: Oscillating [2] Group 2: Core Views - **Corn**: On Tuesday, the main 2507 contract of corn reduced positions and adjusted. The futures price fluctuated during the session and rebounded at the end of the session, closing with a small positive line. Northeast corn prices were basically stable, while North China prices were strong last weekend and slowed down on Tuesday. The arrival volume was small, and there was still an intention to ship before the wheat harvest. Sales areas were stable, and ports were temporarily stable. Technically, the July contract was suppressed by the long - term moving average. Under the pressure of wheat substitution and new wheat listing, it is expected that the corn futures and spot quotes will continue to be weak from May to June [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: On Tuesday, CBOT soybeans rose. An agricultural consulting agency raised the forecast of Brazil's soybean production by 800,000 tons to 172 million tons. Brazil's May soybean exports were 14.03 million tons. The post - market crop report showed that the U.S. soybean planting rate was 76%. Domestically, rapeseed meal increased positions and rose, and soybean meal followed. Before the Dragon Boat Festival, the terminal pick - up volume increased, the demand for the two meals was good, the inventory accumulation of soybean meal was less than expected, and the rapeseed meal inventory decreased. The supply pressure of soybean meal was postponed to mid - June, and the granular meal inventory may gradually decline. Hold the 9 - 1 positive spread of soybean meal and maintain a long - only mindset [1]. - **Edible Oils**: On Tuesday, BMD palm oil slightly closed higher. High - frequency data showed that the export volume of Malaysian palm oil from May 1 - 25 increased by 7.3% - 11.6% month - on - month, and the production increased by 0.73% month - on - month. The slowdown in production growth and the improvement in export growth helped to digest inventory pressure. China and Malaysia signed an agreement, and the EU delegation will visit Malaysia in September and October. Crude oil prices were almost flat. Domestically, rapeseed oil increased positions and rose, while soybean oil and palm oil oscillated and adjusted. The import profit of palm oil was inverted, and the expected purchase volume decreased. The market is concerned about rapeseed purchases after June and soybean purchases for September shipments and later. The state - reserve rapeseed oil has two - way sales. Edible oils oscillate, with a bearish mindset before the festival [1]. - **Eggs**: On Tuesday, egg futures fell. The main 2507 contract continued to decline, and the 2509 contract broke through the oscillation range downward. The spot price increased slightly. Fundamentally, the new supply will continue to increase before August. The long - term plum rain in the Yangtze River Delta is expected to have a greater negative impact on egg prices than in previous years. Before the over - expected increase in culling, a weak expectation for egg prices is maintained [1][2]. - **Live Pigs**: On Tuesday, the September contract of live pigs oscillated and adjusted. At the beginning of the week, the futures price rose driven by the near - month contract. The spot price rose on the weekend, which boosted the futures price. The current demand is stable, but the previous low price triggered resistance to price drops, and the supply of leading enterprises decreased slightly, with a small price rebound. It is expected that the market will continue to adjust within the range in the near future. Technically, pay attention to the support at the 13,500 yuan integer mark. The spot price in May was stronger than expected, and it is generally expected that the price will decline under the pressure of increased supply in June [2]. Group 3: Market Information - CGC will organize a two - way bidding session for rapeseed oil on May 30, with 18,263 tons for two - way trading [3] - Indian farmers and industry officials said that India's soybean planting area may decrease this year as corn and sugarcane may replace soybeans in some areas [3] - According to market rumors, the state - reserve soybean auction will not be held before June 15, and it is rumored that the local state - reserve in Heilongjiang will auction about 2 million tons next month [3] - As of May 23, the commercial inventory of the three major edible oils was 1.85 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 80,000 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 100,000 tons [3] - From May 20 - 27, the total trading volume of soybean meal showed a fluctuating downward trend, with the total trading volume on May 27 being 86,900 tons, a decrease of 27,700 tons from the previous trading day [4] Group 4: Variety Spreads - **Contract Spreads**: Include the 9 - 1 spreads of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs [5][8][9][13] - **Contract Basis**: Include the basis of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs [14][15][19][21][27] Group 5: Research Team Members - Wang Na, Director of Agricultural Products Research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, leader of the top ten research teams of DCE, with multiple awards and media experiences [31] - Hou Xueling, Soybean Analyst at Everbright Futures, with over a decade of futures experience, and her team has won multiple awards [31] - Kong Hailan, Researcher on eggs and live pigs at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with her team winning multiple awards and media interviews [31]

农产品日报（2025 年 4 月 30 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 玉米 | 多移仓至 7 月和 9 月合约。现货市场方面，受期货上涨带动现货延续偏强表现。 | 震荡 | | | 周二，玉米减仓上行，期价收十字星。5 月合约临近交割月，多空主动减仓，主 | | | | 目前，东北玉米价格仍延续上涨的模式，普遍涨幅在 10-20 元/吨，价格持续上 | | | | 涨产区贸易商出货积极性一般。部分贸易商参与中储粮拍卖，拍卖的玉米价格高 | | | | 于现货价格。华北地区玉米价格继续偏强运行。期现货价格联动上涨，市场短期 | | | | 看涨热情较高，早间深加工企业门前到货车辆依然维持低位，企业玉米收购价格 | | | | 继续上涨，华北大部分企业玉米收购价格上调 10-20 元/吨。销区市场玉米价格 | | | | 上调，部分港口报价上调。期货表现持续偏强，产区贸易商看涨心态高涨，港口 | | | | 跟随积极上调报价，但下游提货速度一般，远期订单询价较多，签单数量有限。 | | | | 技术上，玉米 7 月合约突破前高，价格突破密集成交区 ...