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光大期货农产品日报-20251114
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-11-14 05:28
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Corn**: This week, the corn futures and spot prices increased in tandem. Affected by the rising port quotations, the corn futures price continued to rise. The main 2601 contract of corn increased with a reduction in positions, and due to favorable policy expectations, the corn futures and spot prices rebounded jointly. It is recommended to continue participating in short - term long positions [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: On Thursday, CBOT soybeans reached a 17 - month high. Analysts expect the USDA to lower the US soybean harvest forecast. The domestic soybean meal continued its oscillating and strengthening trend due to cost support. The strategy is to hold futures long positions and sell out - of - the - money call options [1]. - **Oils**: On Thursday, BMD palm oil rose. The domestic rapeseed oil continued to rise, while palm oil showed weak growth. The strategy is to participate in short - term long positions [1]. - **Eggs**: On Thursday, egg futures prices continued to correct. The spot egg prices continued to oscillate. Before February next year, the new supply will continue to decline. If the production capacity is eliminated at an accelerated pace, consider going long at low prices; otherwise, treat it with a wide - range oscillation mindset [1]. - **Pigs**: On Thursday, the near - and far - month contracts of live pigs rebounded jointly. The spot pig prices continued to be weak. The far - month 2609 contract of live pigs is expected to continue to oscillate and strengthen, and attention should be paid to the pressure of the 40 - day moving average on the weekly line [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information - **Brazilian Soybeans**: The CONAB monthly report predicts that the soybean production in Brazil in the 2025/26 season will reach 177.6016 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.1199 million tons or 3.6%. The sown area is expected to reach 49.0634 million hectares, a year - on - year increase of 1.7169 million hectares or 3.6%. The yield per unit area is expected to be 3.62 tons per hectare, a year - on - year decrease of 2.0 kg per hectare or 0.1% [2]. - **Winter Wheat Sowing**: As of November 12, the sowing of winter wheat across the country has reached 75%. In the Huang - Huai - Hai region, it has exceeded 75%. By province, the sowing progress in Henan is nearly 70%, in Shandong it has exceeded 80%, in Anhui it is nearly 70%, in Jiangsu it is 55%, in Shaanxi it has exceeded 85%, and in Shanxi it is 85% [3]. - **Sino - US Agricultural Trade**: China will continue to maintain an open and cooperative attitude and deepen mutually beneficial cooperation with global trading partners in agricultural product trade [3]. 3.2 Variety Spreads - **Contract Spreads**: The report presents the 1 - 5 spreads of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs, but specific data analysis is not provided [5][6][9][11]. - **Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs, but specific data analysis is not provided [14][17][18][23]. 3.3 Research Team Members - **Wang Na**: The director of the agricultural product research department at Everbright Futures Research Institute, the leader of the top ten research and investment teams at DCE. She has won the "Best Agricultural Product Analyst" title in the Futures Daily and Securities Times' Best Futures Analyst selection for many years [27]. - **Hou Xueling**: A soybean analyst at Everbright Futures, with more than a decade of futures trading experience. She has also won the "Best Agricultural Product Analyst" title in relevant selections for many years [27]. - **Kong Hailan**: A researcher in the egg and live pig industries at Everbright Futures Research Institute. She has participated in many media interviews [27].
农产品日报-20251031
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-10-31 08:15
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Corn: The corn futures price showed a weak and volatile performance. New grain listings increased in the spot market, and the supply pressure in Jilin was transmitted to the ports, causing the prices at northern ports to decline under pressure. Prices in different regions of North China were differentiated, and prices in the sales areas were generally weak. The corn main 2601 contract rebounded under pressure, and there was a long - term bearish expectation [1]. - Soybean Meal: CBOT soybeans hit a 15 - month high on Thursday. After the China - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur, there were expectations of increased demand. Domestic soybean meal followed the upward trend of the external market, but the market trading was sluggish. The strategy was to think in a slightly bullish and volatile way [1]. - Oils: BMD palm oil rebounded after four consecutive days of decline. The Indonesian Palm Oil Association expected the 2025 palm oil production to increase by 10% year - on - year to 56 million tons. In August, Indonesia's inventory decreased by 1% to 2.54 million tons. Domestically, palm oil declined more than soybean oil and rapeseed oil. Short - term participation was recommended, waiting for long - position entry opportunities [1]. - Eggs: The egg futures fluctuated and adjusted on Thursday, with the main 2512 contract slightly down 0.25%. The spot prices were mostly stable, with individual fluctuations. The short - term supply pressure and supply improvement were in a game, and the rebound height was expected to be limited [1]. - Pigs: The main 2601 contract of live pigs closed with a long negative line on Thursday, and the futures price returned to the shock mode. The spot prices in production and sales areas were running strongly, but the price increases in Shandong and Hebei slowed down. Although it was expected that the prices of live pigs and pork would stop falling and rebound in the fourth quarter, the supply pressure still loomed over the market, and the futures price was expected to resume a slow decline after the rebound ended [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information - The European Central Bank kept the interest rate at 2% on Thursday, while the Federal Reserve cut the interest rate by 25 basis points earlier [3]. - In September 2025, Canada's rapeseed crushing volume was 1,007,389 tons, an increase of 16.07% from the previous month and 7.97% from the same period last year [3]. - The estimated soybean production in the 2025/26 season in Brazil's Paraná state was 21.96 million tons, higher than the September forecast [3]. - China made its first soybean purchase from the US in this harvesting season [3]. 3.2 Variety Spreads - **Contract Spreads**: There were charts showing the 1 - 5 spreads of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs [5][6][10][14]. - **Contract Basis**: There were charts showing the basis of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs [13][16][17][22]. 3.3 Research Team Members - Wang Na is the director of the agricultural product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience and many honors. Her futures trading consultation qualification number is Z0001262 [26]. - Hou Xueling is an analyst of soybeans at Everbright Futures, with over a decade of futures trading experience and multiple awards. Her futures trading consultation qualification number is Z0013637 [26]. - Kong Hailan is a researcher of eggs and live pigs at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with a master's degree in economics. Her futures trading consultation qualification number is Z0013544 [26].
农产品日报-20251030
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-10-30 07:12
Group 1: Investment Ratings for Different Agricultural Products - Corn: The rating is "Oscillating Downward" [1] - Soybean Meal: The rating is "Oscillating" [1] - Oils and Fats: The rating is "Declining" [1] - Eggs: The rating is "Oscillating" [1] - Pigs: The rating is "Oscillating" [2] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Corn: On Wednesday, the main corn 2601 contract closed with a small negative line after opening flat, showing an oscillating performance. The supply of new grain in the spot market has increased, and the supply pressure of corn in Jilin has been transmitted to the ports, causing the prices at northern ports to decline under pressure. The prices in North China are running steadily with a slight upward trend. The prices in the sales areas are mainly weak. The downstream feed enterprises are mostly waiting and watching, and the port traders are actively selling. Technically, the main 2601 contract is under pressure to rebound, and the long - term outlook is bearish [1]. - Soybean Meal: On Wednesday, CBOT soybeans remained flat. The market is optimistic about the demand outlook and is concerned about the trade situation and the US government shutdown. Domestically, soybean meal is oscillating narrowly, and the funds are cautious. There are many rumors about US soybean purchases, and the results of the Sino - US leaders' talks should be closely watched. The spot price of soybean meal has followed the increase, but the market trading is sluggish [1]. - Oils and Fats: On Wednesday, BMD palm oil fell for the fourth consecutive day and the second consecutive month, following the decline of the surrounding markets. The expected over - production in Indonesia has also depressed the market. Domestically, palm oil continued to decline and stopped falling at night. Soybean oil and rapeseed oil are relatively strong. Attention should be paid to the implementation of US and Indonesian biodiesel policies and the tariff adjustments between the US and Malaysia [1]. - Eggs: On Wednesday, the egg futures continued to rebound, with the main 2512 contract rising 2.13%. The spot price of eggs continued to decline slightly. There is a game between short - term supply pressure and supply improvement, and the rebound height is expected to be limited. The future egg price trend depends on the changes in the farmers' willingness to replenish and cull the flocks [1]. - Pigs: On Wednesday, the main 2601 contract of live pigs closed with a small positive line close to a doji, and the futures price was blocked from rising and moved down in the range. The spot prices in production and sales areas are running strongly, but the price increase in Shandong and Hebei has slowed down. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs expects the prices of live pigs and pork to stop falling and rebound in the fourth quarter. However, due to the continuous policy of controlling the breeding sows and reducing the inventory and the supply pressure, it is expected that the futures price will return to a slow decline after the rebound [2]. Group 3: Market Information - Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production is expected to be 177 million tons, a 3% increase from the previous year. The export volume is expected to be 111 million tons, basically the same as the previous year. The planting area is expected to reach 48.8 million hectares, a 2% increase from the previous year [3]. - The US government shutdown has lasted for nearly a month, and there seems to be a change. There is a possibility of a compromise on the temporary appropriation bill next week [3]. - The Argentine oilseed workers' union may resume the strike next week as they are still far from reaching a salary agreement with the employers [3]. - Chinese President Xi Jinping will meet with US President Trump in Busan, South Korea on October 30 to exchange views on Sino - US relations and common concerns [3]. - China has made its first purchase of US soybeans this harvest season, and the Chinese Foreign Ministry has not given a specific comment [4]. Group 4: Variety Spreads 4.1 Contract Spreads - The spreads include those of corn 1 - 5, corn starch 1 - 5, soybeans 1 - 5, soybean meal 1 - 5, soybean oil 1 - 5, palm oil 1 - 5, eggs 1 - 5, and live pigs 1 - 5 [6][7][11][15] 4.2 Contract Basis - The basis includes those of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs [14][17][18][23] Group 5: Research Team Members - Wang Na, the director of the agricultural product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, has won many awards and has rich experience in leading the team [27]. - Hou Xueling, a soybean analyst at Everbright Futures, has more than ten years of futures experience and has won many awards [27]. - Kong Hailan, a researcher of eggs and live pigs at Everbright Futures Research Institute, has participated in many research projects and has been interviewed by many media [27].
农产品日报-20251024
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-10-24 09:51
Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for different agricultural product varieties are as follows: corn - oscillatory; soybean meal - oscillatory; oils - rising (with an oscillatory strategy); eggs - oscillatory; and pigs - oscillatory [1][2] Core Viewpoints - Corn prices showed mixed trends this week. The North Port prices were under pressure recently, while the prices in North China were stable to slightly stronger. Given the expected corn harvest this year, there is a possibility that corn futures prices may reach new lows [1] - CBOT soybeans rose to a one - month high on Thursday. Domestic protein meal increased with reduced positions, and the soybean meal rose by over 2%. The supply of soybean and rapeseed meal in the spot market remains ample, and the demand side is cautious in purchasing [1] - BMD palm oil closed higher on Thursday. Domestic palm oil futures prices declined following the foreign market, while soybean oil and rapeseed oil fluctuated slightly. It is necessary to closely monitor the Sino - US talks and the Fed meeting [1] - Egg futures rebounded from a low level on Thursday. Spot egg prices showed a pattern of mostly stable with a few increases in the production areas, and the purchasing costs in the sales areas were mostly stable with a few increases. The future egg price trend depends on the changes in farmers' willingness to replenish and cull the flock [1] - On Thursday, the main hog futures contract oscillated and formed a doji star. After the National Day, hog prices declined rapidly, and the expectation of a technical rebound increased. Although the expansion of the price difference between standard and fat hogs and the entry of second - fattening operations have alleviated the short - term supply pressure to some extent, the oversupply situation remains the main factor influencing prices [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - **Corn**: This week, corn prices showed mixed trends. The main 2601 contract on Thursday opened slightly lower and then rebounded. Affected by the adjustment of futures prices near the weekend, the North Port quotes were under pressure. In North China, the corn prices continued to be stable to slightly stronger. Considering the expected corn harvest this year, the market generally expects the corn futures prices to reach new lows [1] - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybeans rose to a one - month high on Thursday. Domestic protein meal increased with reduced positions, and the soybean meal rose by over 2%. The supply of soybean and rapeseed meal in the spot market is ample, and the demand side is cautious in purchasing. The slow procurement of soybeans by oil mills from December to January provides strong cost support for soybean meal [1] - **Oils**: BMD palm oil closed higher on Thursday. Domestic palm oil futures prices declined following the foreign market, while soybean oil and rapeseed oil fluctuated slightly. The improvement in the spot trading volume of soybean oil and the rigid demand for palm oil and rapeseed oil were observed. It is necessary to closely monitor the Sino - US talks and the Fed meeting [1] - **Eggs**: Egg futures rebounded from a low level on Thursday. Spot egg prices showed a pattern of mostly stable with a few increases in the production areas, and the purchasing costs in the sales areas were mostly stable with a few increases. The future egg price trend depends on the changes in farmers' willingness to replenish and cull the flock [1] - **Pigs**: On Thursday, the main hog futures contract oscillated and formed a doji star. After the National Day, hog prices declined rapidly, and the expectation of a technical rebound increased. Although the expansion of the price difference between standard and fat hogs and the entry of second - fattening operations have alleviated the short - term supply pressure to some extent, the oversupply situation remains the main factor influencing prices [2] Market Information - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China was held in Beijing from October 20 to 23, 2025. The session proposed to build a strong domestic market and accelerate the construction of a new development pattern [2][3] - The main economic and social development goals for the "15th Five - Year Plan" period were put forward, aiming to achieve a significant leap in China's economic, technological, national defense, and comprehensive national strength and international influence by 2035 [3] - Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng will lead a delegation to Malaysia from October 24 to 27 for economic and trade consultations with the US [3] - The EU agreed to impose new sanctions on Russia due to the Russia - Ukraine conflict and expanded the scope of sanctions to include 12 Chinese companies and 3 Indian companies. China strongly opposes these sanctions and has lodged solemn representations with the EU [3] Variety Spreads - **Contract Spreads**: The report presents the 1 - 5 spreads of various agricultural product contracts, including corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs [4][5][6] - **Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis of various agricultural product contracts, such as corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs [12][13][16] Research Team Members - Wang Na is the director of the agricultural product research department at Everbright Futures Research Institute. She has won the "Best Agricultural Product Analyst" title in multiple analyst selection competitions and has led her team to achieve excellent results [26] - Hou Xueling is an analyst of soybeans at Everbright Futures. She has rich experience and has won many industry awards [26] - Kong Hailan is a researcher of eggs and pigs at Everbright Futures Research Institute. She has participated in many research projects and has been interviewed by mainstream media [26]
农产品日报-20250923
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-09-23 05:36
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Corn is expected to decline in a volatile manner. New grain harvest pressure, price drops in Heilongjiang, and slow harvest in Shandong due to rain contribute to the bearish outlook. The 11 - month contract hit a new low, and the medium - term weak expectation remains unchanged [1]. - Soybean meal is expected to move sideways. Weak demand, advancing US soybean harvest, and Argentina's tariff cancellation on grain exports affect the market. Domestic two - meal prices fluctuated, and short - term participation is recommended [1]. - Oils are expected to move sideways. BMD palm oil ended a two - day decline due to strong surrounding markets and positive export data. Domestic oils are divided, with rapeseed oil being strong and soybean and palm oils being weak. Short - term participation is advised [1]. - Eggs are expected to move sideways. Futures prices declined, and spot prices were mostly stable. Supply continues to pressure egg prices, and the boost from peak - season demand is limited. Light - position participation is recommended, and attention should be paid to supply and market sentiment changes [1]. - Pigs are expected to move sideways. Futures prices fluctuated, and spot prices stabilized with partial rebounds. Supply is abundant, and short - term rebounds are limited. Attention should be paid to the support from demand and policies as temperatures drop [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Information - Malaysia's palm oil export data from different institutions shows mixed results. SGS data indicates a 16.1% decrease in exports from September 1 - 20 compared to the previous month, while Amspec shows an 8.3% increase. Production from September 1 - 20 decreased by 7.89% compared to the previous month [3]. - The national pig - feed ratio this week is 5.12, a 1.54% decline. Pig farmers are expected to have a loss of - 106.13 yuan per head. Supply increased this week, and demand was limited. Next week, the decline in pig prices may slow, but losses are expected to increase [3]. - On September 22, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" increased. The average prices of pork, eggs, and white - striped chickens in the national agricultural product wholesale market also rose compared to last Friday [3]. - On September 22, Argentina temporarily cancelled export taxes on soybeans, its derivatives, corn, and wheat until October 31 or until exports reach $7 billion to increase foreign exchange supply [4]. Variety Spreads - Contract spreads and contract basis are presented for various agricultural products such as corn, soybean, oil, egg, and pig, but no specific analysis of these spreads is provided in the text [5][13]
农产品日报(2025年9月11日)-20250911
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-09-11 05:21
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market for various agricultural products is in a state of oscillation. Corn, soybean meal, oils, eggs, and pigs are all expected to show an oscillatory trend [1][2]. - For corn, the market is affected by factors such as the increase in new grain listings and the transition of old - grain prices to new - grain prices. In the short - term, the 11 - month contract is expected to continue to adjust, and in the medium - term, it is judged to be weak due to expected high yields and lower costs [1]. - Regarding soybean meal, the international market has changes in supply and demand expectations, and the domestic market has sufficient spot goods and stable import costs. Without significant driving factors, the price will oscillate, and short - term participation is recommended [1]. - In the case of oils, the international market has a negative impact on prices, but there are also some positive factors such as potential bio - diesel policy changes. The market is currently oscillating, and strategies such as increasing volatility or selling put options are recommended [1]. - For eggs, the spot price has a certain increase, but the rebound is limited. The future egg price will be affected by the supply side. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to changes in the market and supply [1][2]. - For pigs, the futures price is oscillating strongly, while the spot price is weak. The short - term policy boost is limited, and attention should be paid to the impact of market sentiment on futures prices [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Corn**: The main 2511 contract of corn decreased in position and price on Wednesday. The trading enthusiasm of both long and short sides has cooled. As the listing volume of new corn in western Liaoning increases, the price returns to range fluctuations. The old grain in the Northeast is still strong, and the price in North China is weakly stable. The price in the sales area has a local increase. Technically, the 11 - month contract is expected to continue to adjust in the short - term and be weak in the medium - term [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybeans fell on Wednesday. Analysts expect a decrease in US soybean yield, export, and inventory. The strengthening of US soybean oil is due to potential bio - diesel policy changes. The domestic spot price of soybean meal oscillates, and short - term participation is recommended [1]. - **Oils**: BMD palm oil fell for the second consecutive day due to the decline of related oils and weak exports. The MPOB August supply - demand report is slightly bearish. The domestic oil futures price is weak. The market is oscillating, and strategies such as increasing volatility or selling put options are recommended [1]. - **Eggs**: The main 2510 and 2511 contracts of eggs showed a weak trend on Wednesday. The spot price increased slightly. The future egg price will be affected by the supply side. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to changes in the market and supply [1][2]. - **Pigs**: The pig futures price oscillated strongly on Wednesday, while the spot price was weak. The short - term policy boost is limited, and attention should be paid to the impact of market sentiment on futures prices [2]. 3.2 Market Information - Malaysia's sustainable palm oil certification (MSPO) has been recognized by the EU, which helps relevant enterprises comply with EU deforestation regulations [3]. - The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from September 1 - 10 decreased compared with the same period last month, with a decrease of 1.2% - 8.4% according to different survey agencies [3]. - The MPOB August supply - demand report shows that the inventory of Malaysian palm oil increased by 4.18% to 2.2 million tons, the production increased by 2.35% to 1.86 million tons, and the export decreased by 0.29% to 1.32 million tons [3]. - In the 36th week of 2025 (September 1 - 5), the average weekly price of lean - type white - striped pork in 16 provinces and municipalities increased by 2.0% month - on - month, decreased by 29.7% year - on - year, and the decline narrowed by 0.8 percentage points compared with the previous week. The price first rose and then fell during the week [4]. - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and the National Development and Reform Commission plan to hold a symposium on pig production capacity regulation on September 16, inviting 25 enterprises to participate [5]. 3.3 Variety Spreads - The report provides charts of contract spreads and contract basis for various agricultural products, including corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs, but no specific analysis of these spreads is provided [6][7][8][12][14][15][16][18][19][25]
农产品日报-20250827
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-27 05:56
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The report presents a "volatile" view on various agricultural products including corn, soybean meal, oils, eggs, and pigs, analyzing their market conditions, supply - demand factors, and price trends, and also gives corresponding trading strategies [1][2] 3) Summary by Directory Research Viewpoints - **Corn**: The corn futures market is in a volatile state. The spot price is weak, with the price in Northeast China moving towards the new - grain price and showing a continuous downward trend. The arrival volume of corn at Shandong deep - processing enterprises has increased, and the price has been slightly adjusted downwards. The downstream procurement willingness is weak, and the short - term demand is difficult to recover significantly. Attention should be paid to the price performance of the November contract at the 2150 integer mark [1] - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybeans rose due to technical trading, and the US soybean harvest is expected to be good. The domestic soybean meal production has increased and prices have declined. Market expectations of a US soybean purchase agreement and state - reserve soybean auctions are affecting the market. It is recommended to focus on short - term trading and participate in monthly positive spreads [1] - **Oils**: BMD palm oil declined due to profit - taking. The export of Malaysian palm oil from August 1 - 25 increased, while the production decreased. The domestic three major vegetable oils are mainly volatile, with inventory pressure increasing and demand remaining weak. If the spot demand starts, the supply - demand situation is expected to improve, and the basis is estimated to strengthen. It is recommended to participate in short - term long positions and sell put options [1] - **Eggs**: Egg futures are in a low - level volatile adjustment. The spot price has a slight increase, with stable terminal digestion and most traders purchasing as they sell. The supply pressure still affects the spot price, but there is a possibility of a seasonal rebound in egg prices. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to changes in terminal demand and market sentiment [1][2] - **Pigs**: Pig futures are weakly volatile. The spot price has declined, with large - scale farms increasing their slaughter volume and supply exceeding market digestion. According to seasonal patterns, there is support for pig prices as demand recovers, but the abundant supply still exerts pressure. It is necessary to pay attention to the reaction of the futures market to spot prices and changes in policies and market sentiment [2] Market Information - As of August 24, EU's 2025/26 imports of soybeans, rapeseed, palm oil, and corn all decreased compared to the same period last year [3] - As of August 26, the national soybean oil port inventory increased by 410,000 tons compared to the previous week [3] - Malaysia's Ministry of Plantation Industries and Commodities is seeking to exempt crude palm kernel oil and refined palm kernel oil from the sales and service tax [3] - From August 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield decreased by 3.26% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.4%, and the production decreased by 1.21% [3] Variety Spreads - The report provides charts of contract spreads and contract basis for various agricultural products such as corn, soybean meal, oils, eggs, and pigs, but no specific analysis of these spreads is given [4][5][6][10][12][13][14][16][18][23]
光大期货农产品日报-20250805
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-05 05:06
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Corn is expected to show a weak - oscillating trend. On Monday, corn's weighted contract positions increased while the futures price was weak. Spot trading weakened with prices in Northeast China, North China, and sales areas showing a weak - stable trend. The 9 - month contract fell below 2300 yuan, and the 1 - month contract is under pressure due to expected high yields [2]. - Soybean meal is expected to oscillate. CBOT soybean futures rose on Monday, but US soybeans are restricted by large global supplies. In China, soybean meal supply is sufficient, and inventory is rising, but the market expects the inventory peak to pass and the basis to gradually return. A narrow - range oscillation is expected, and 11 - 1, 1 - 5 positive spreads can be considered [2]. - Oils are expected to oscillate. BMD palm oil fell on Monday due to concerns about increased production and inventory. In China, the market sentiment is weak, with palm oil falling and soybean oil relatively stable. The overall oils market shows an internal - strong and external - weak pattern, and an intraday trading strategy is recommended [2]. - Eggs are expected to show a weak - oscillating trend. The increase in the number of laying hens has led to a bearish sentiment. On Monday, the near - month egg contracts fell significantly, and the spot price also declined. The fundamental bearish pattern remains unchanged, and the futures price may weaken further [2]. - Pigs are expected to oscillate. The 2509 pig futures contract showed a slight decline on Monday. The supply of pigs is increasing, but terminal demand is weak. Policy support exists, so the price is expected to oscillate. The futures and spot prices are at the important 14000 - yuan/ton level [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information - India's palm oil imports in July decreased by 10% month - on - month to 858,000 tons, while soybean oil imports increased by 38% to 495,000 tons, and sunflower oil imports decreased by 7% to 201,000 tons. The total edible oil imports increased by 1.5% to 1.53 million tons [4]. - As of August 1, 2025 (week 31), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key Chinese regions was 582,200 tons, a decrease of 33,300 tons (5.41%) from the previous week and an increase of 3400 tons (0.59%) from the same period last year [4]. - According to SGS, Malaysia's estimated palm oil exports from July 1 - 31 were 896,362 tons, a 25.01% decrease from the same period last month [4]. - Reuters survey shows that Malaysia's estimated palm oil inventory in July 2025 was 2.25 million tons (up 10.8% from June), production was 1.83 million tons (up 8% from June), and exports were 1.3 million tons (up 3.2% from June) [4]. - In July, the concentrated arrival of imported soybeans in China led to high oil - mill operating rates. The total soybean crushing volume was 10.1 million tons, basically the same as the previous month and a 14.59% increase year - on - year [5]. 3.2 Variety Spreads - The report presents multiple charts of contract spreads, including those of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs [7][9][10][13]. - The report also presents multiple charts of contract basis, including those of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs [15][19][25][27].
农产品日报(2025年8月1日)-20250801
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-01 03:27
Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings for Different Agricultural Products - Corn: Oscillating weakly [2] - Soybean Meal: Oscillating [2] - Oils: Oscillating [2] - Eggs: Oscillating weakly [2] - Pigs: Oscillating [3] 2. Core Views - Corn: This week, the main corn contract reduced positions and adjusted. The funds of the September contract shifted to the January contract. The bearish factor of good weather during the growth period influenced market sentiment, and the corn futures price showed a weak performance. Northeast corn prices remained stable, and the impact of imported corn auctions on the market was relatively limited. In the Northeast production area, there was a small amount of supply, and the downstream trading activity was poor. In North China, corn prices generally showed a stable - to - strong trend. Technically, the September contract rebounded to the previous intensive trading area of 2320 - 2330 yuan/ton this week, but was suppressed by the technical resistance level and then declined again. Short - term attention should be paid to the effectiveness of the 2300 yuan/ton support for the September contract, and a medium - term downward trend is expected [2]. - Soybean Meal: On Thursday, CBOT soybeans closed at the lowest level since April due to favorable crop weather in the US for a bumper harvest and sufficient global supply. Domestic protein meal prices declined as domestic commodities generally fell and funds withdrew from the market. The Sino - US negotiation maintained the suspension of the 24% tariff, but did not mention soybean purchases, which led to concerns about the long - term supply of soybean meal. Strategically, soybean meal is expected to oscillate narrowly, and investors can participate in the 11 - 1 and 1 - 5 positive spreads [2]. - Oils: On Thursday, BMD palm oil prices fell, ending a two - day upward trend. High - frequency data showed that Malaysian palm oil exports in July decreased by 6.7% - 9.6% month - on - month. Indonesia raised the reference price of crude palm oil in August, leading to an increase in export tariffs. Domestically, the market sentiment was weak, and the futures prices of oils declined. The decline in the outer market led to a decrease in import costs, which also pressured the prices. The inventory of palm oil was limited, and the inventory of rapeseed oil decreased. The oils market showed a pattern of strong domestic and weak overseas, which was conducive to restoring import profits. Strategically, short - term trading is recommended [2]. - Eggs: On Thursday, influenced by surrounding commodities, the egg futures price oscillated and closed down. The spot price of eggs decreased slightly. The short - term fundamental situation was still bearish, and the market sentiment was pessimistic. In the future, as the egg market enters the peak season, demand will have a positive impact on egg prices. However, considering the high inventory and cold - stored eggs, the peak egg price is likely to be lower than that of last year [2][3]. - Pigs: On Thursday, the main pig contract 2509 oscillated during the session and finally closed flat. The spot price of pigs increased slightly. As pig prices continued to adjust, the mentality of farmers to support prices became stronger, and the slaughter volume decreased. The policy provided support for pig prices, so a short - term oscillating trend is expected. Attention should be paid to whether the short - term rebound in spot prices can continue and the impact of market sentiment changes on the futures market after the spot price rebounds [3]. 3. Market Information - Argentina reduced the export tariffs on soybean oil and soybean meal from 31% to 24.5% [4]. - As of July 23, the national average ex - factory price of pigs was 14.78 yuan/kg, a 1.20% decrease from July 16, and the pig - grain ratio was 6.16, a 1.12% decrease from July 16 [4]. - The Indian Vegetable Oil Producers Association (IVPA) stated that Indian vegetable oil importers were increasing palm oil purchases to meet the expected surge in demand during the festival season as global prices declined [4]. - According to the data of the shipping survey agency ITS, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil from July 1 - 31 was 1,289,727 tons, a 6.71% decrease compared to the same period last month [4]. - Indonesia set the reference price of crude palm oil (CPO) in August at $910.91 per metric ton, higher than $877.89 in July [4]. - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange decided to suspend the designated rapeseed oil delivery warehouse business of Sichuan Grain and Oil Wholesale Center Direct - affiliated Reserve Depot Co., Ltd. and Central Reserve Grain Sichuan Xinjin Direct - affiliated Depot Co., Ltd., and resume the rapeseed oil delivery warehouse business of China Grain Reserves (Hefei) Reserve Co., Ltd. It also added Chengdu Grain Group Co., Ltd. as a rapeseed oil delivery warehouse and COFCO Oils (Chengdu) Co., Ltd. as a rapeseed oil delivery factory warehouse [5]. 4. Variety Spreads - **Contract Spreads**: The report presents the 9 - 1 spreads of various agricultural products such as corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs through multiple charts [6][7][9][10][13]. - **Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis of various agricultural products including corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs through multiple charts [14][15][19][25][27]. 5. Research Team Introduction - Wang Na is the director of the agricultural product research department at Everbright Futures Research Institute, the leader of the top ten research and investment teams of the Dalian Commodity Exchange. She has won the "Best Agricultural Product Analyst" title in the Futures Daily and Securities Times Best Futures Analyst Awards for many years [29]. - Hou Xueling is an analyst of soybeans at Everbright Futures, with more than ten years of futures trading experience. She has also won the "Best Agricultural Product Analyst" title in relevant awards for many years [29]. - Kong Hailan, a master of economics, is currently a researcher of the egg and pig industries at Everbright Futures Research Institute [29].
饲料养殖产业日报-20250723
Chang Jiang Qi Huo· 2025-07-23 01:40
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report provides daily insights into the feed and aquaculture industry including price movements of various agricultural products and offers corresponding trading strategies. It analyzes the supply - demand dynamics of products such as pigs, eggs, palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, and corn, and expects a short - term correction but a long - term bullish trend for oils. [1][2][5][8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pigs - On July 23, the spot price of pigs in Liaoning was 14 - 14.6 yuan/kg, down 0.1 yuan/kg from the previous day; in Henan, it was 14.2 - 14.5 yuan/kg, also down 0.1 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was stable at 13.5 - 13.7 yuan/kg; in Guangdong, it was stable at 15.6 - 16.2 yuan/kg. The short - term supply - demand game is intensifying, and the pig price fluctuates within a narrow range. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply pressure in the second half of the year is still high, and the price rebound is under pressure. [1] - Futures prices are rising due to macro - bullish sentiment, but the supply - demand pressure remains. The pressure levels for contracts 09, 11, and 01 are 14500 - 14700, 14000 - 14200, and 14400 respectively. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, and consider shorting contracts 11 and 01 on rebounds, and also pay attention to the short 09/11 and long 01 arbitrage. [1] Eggs - On July 23, the egg price in Shandong Dezhou was 3.25 yuan/jin, up 0.1 yuan/jin from the previous day; in Beijing, it was 3.39 yuan/jin, up 0.12 yuan/jin. In the short - term, high - temperature weather reduces the egg - laying rate, and demand is expected to pick up seasonally, driving up the egg price, but supply - side factors limit the increase. [2] - In the medium - term, the high number of chicks replenished from April to June 2025 means more laying hens will start production from August to October 2025, and the supply increase trend may be hard to reverse. In the long - term, the enthusiasm for chick replenishment has declined, and the number of new - laying hens may decrease. [2] - The current 09 basis is still low, and the futures market is highly volatile. It is recommended to wait for spot price guidance. If the spot price increase slows down, consider shorting at high prices. For the fourth - quarter contracts 12 and 01, consider going long at low prices, and pay attention to feed prices and hen culling. [2] Oils - On July 22, the US soybean oil December contract fell 0.57% to 55.48 cents/lb due to falling international crude oil prices; the Malaysian palm oil October contract rose 0.88% to 4263 ringgit/ton, driven by the strength of US soybean oil but limited by falling crude oil and other edible oil markets. [4] - For palm oil, the June MPOB report showed an increase in ending stocks, but the market focused on the strong import demand in major consuming countries in June. In July, although exports decreased and production increased, Indonesian biodiesel news, potential lower - than - expected production in Indonesia, and import demand from China and India supported the short - term bullish trend. The 10 - contract is expected to face resistance at 4300 - 4400. In China, palm oil stocks have risen, and new purchases in August are being watched. [5] - For soybean oil, as of mid - July, the growth of US soybeans in the 25/26 season is good. Although there will be high - temperature weather in the next 1 - 2 weeks, there will also be precipitation. The US soybean oil is strong due to the RVO draft from the EPA and potential trade negotiations. In China, soybean oil stocks are expected to accumulate in July, and the long - term supply depends on future soybean purchases. [6] - For rapeseed oil, the growth of Canadian rapeseed is improving, but there is still a risk of drought. Sino - Canadian relations may lead to an increase in Australian rapeseed imports. In China, rapeseed oil stocks are gradually decreasing, and the impact of Australian rapeseed imports needs to be monitored. [7] - Overall, although there was a correction in domestic oils due to factors such as falling international crude oil prices and reduced palm oil exports, the correction is limited, and oils are expected to be bullish after the correction. Palm oil is expected to be the strongest, followed by soybean oil, and rapeseed oil may be relatively weak. It is recommended to buy on dips for the 09 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils, paying attention to the support levels of 8000, 8900, and 9400 respectively. [8][9] Soybean Meal - On July 22, the US soybean 11 - contract fell 0.5 cents to 1025.5 cents/bu, and the domestic soybean meal was stronger than US soybeans due to the expected destocking after August and tariff factors. The M2509 contract closed at 3086 yuan/ton. [9] - In the short - term, the good precipitation in the US soybean - growing areas and high soybean quality limit the upward movement of US soybeans. In China, high soybean arrivals and high - volume crushing lead to inventory accumulation, limiting the increase in the spot price of soybean meal. The basis is expected to be weak, with a bottom around 09 - 200 yuan/ton in the East China region. The M2509 contract is trading on the destocking expectation. [9] - In the medium - to - long - term, there may be a supply gap from October to January, and attention should be paid to import policies and volumes. It is recommended to reduce long positions in the short - term for the M2509 contract and go long on the M2511 and M2601 contracts at low prices in the medium - to - long - term. [9] Corn - On July 22, the purchase price of new corn at Jinzhou Port was 2290 yuan/ton, and the平仓 price was 2330 yuan/ton; in Shandong Weifang Xingmao, the purchase price was 2522 yuan/ton, both stable from the previous day. [9] - In the short - term, policy - grain releases increase supply, but reduced selling willingness and inventory depletion support the price. However, the availability of alternative feedstocks limits the upward space. In the medium - term, there was a production reduction in the 24/25 season, and the supply - demand situation tightened, but policy releases and alternative feedstocks limit price increases. In the long - term, the 25/26 corn planting is stable, and costs have decreased. [9] - It is recommended to be cautious about going long on the 09 contract in the short - term and wait for spot price guidance. Also, pay attention to the 9 - 1 reverse - spread arbitrage opportunity. [9] Today's Futures Market Overview - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, and trading information of various futures and spot products including CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, CBOT corn, etc. [10]