螺纹钢(HRB400 20mm)
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每周高频跟踪 20251025:宏观预期集中落地-20251025
Huachuang Securities· 2025-10-25 14:54
Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - In the fourth week of October, the operating rate remained stable, and investment products showed mixed performance. Food prices increased, mainly driven by rising vegetable prices, while pork prices continued to decline. Export freight rates continued to rise, with North American routes showing continuous monthly growth. Port freight volume increased month-on-month and maintained high year-on-year growth since October. The industrial operating rate remained stable, and the Nanhua Industrial Products Index increased month-on-month. In terms of investment, the inventory reduction of rebar accelerated, indicating the impact of the "two 500 billion" tools on physical work volume. In the real estate market, the transactions of new and second-hand houses decreased slightly month-on-month after rising the previous week, but the year-on-year negative growth narrowed, with second-hand houses showing better resilience [4][29]. - For the bond market, a large amount of macro news will be released next week. The impact on bond yields is expected to be controllable, but attention should be paid to the disturbance of the stock-bond seesaw effect on bond market sentiment. Externally, China and the US will hold economic and trade consultations in Malaysia from October 24th to 27th. Domestically, the demand for investment products improved marginally in October, and the influence of new tools on fixed asset investment data is expected to be reflected from October to November. Next week, attention should be paid to the results of the China-US negotiations, the release of the "15th Five-Year Plan" suggestions, and the APEC meeting [4][30]. Summary by Directory Inflation-related: Vegetable Price Increase Widened - Food prices increased, with the average wholesale price of pork in China decreasing by 3.0% week-on-week. The increase in vegetable prices continued to widen, boosting the Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index and the Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index by 1.4% and 1.7% week-on-week respectively [8]. Import and Export-related: Export Freight Rates Accelerated - The month-on-month increase in export container shipping prices widened. The CCFI index increased by 2.0% week-on-week, and the SCFI increased by 7.1%. The market sentiment of the China Export Container Transport Market continued to rebound, with stable transport demand and rising freight rates on most routes. In the North American market, the supply-demand fundamentals were stable, and market freight rates continued to rise [9]. - In terms of port freight volume, from October 13th to 19th, the container throughput and cargo throughput of ports increased by 3.6% and 2.5% week-on-week respectively, with year-on-year increases of 9.1% and 1.0% respectively. Since October, the monthly average year-on-year increases have been 8.8% and 2.5%, indicating strong export volume [9]. - The increase in the BDI index narrowed, and the CDFI index decreased. The international dry bulk shipping market was generally stable, with slight increases in freight rates for various ship types [9]. Industry-related: Rebar Inventory Reduction Accelerated - The increase in coal prices continued to widen. Due to the decrease in temperature in the South, the daily consumption of power plants decreased, and procurement willingness declined. However, due to stricter safety inspections in coal-producing areas, supply was limited, and prices continued to rise [12]. - The decline in rebar prices slowed down, with the spot price of rebar (HRB400 20mm) decreasing by 0.01% week-on-week. The inventory of rebar decreased by 4.2% week-on-week, with continuous inventory reduction for four weeks and an expanding reduction range, indicating the acceleration of physical work volume [2][12]. - Copper prices turned from decline to increase, with the average prices of Yangtze River Nonferrous Copper and LME Copper increasing by 0.45% and 1.0% week-on-week respectively. The slowdown of US inflation data strengthened the expectation of two interest rate cuts this year, and the convening of important domestic meetings boosted macro sentiment, supporting the pricing of risk assets [2][15]. - The glass futures continued to decline. The spot market was weak, with increasing inventory in many places. The purchasing enthusiasm of downstream buyers was low, and manufacturers actively reduced prices to maintain sales. There was no positive news in the supply-demand fundamentals, and the weakness of the spot market was difficult to change in the short term [15]. Investment-related: Decline in Cement Prices Narrowed - Cement prices mostly decreased, with intensified regional differentiation. The weekly average of the cement price index decreased by 0.3% week-on-week, compared with a 2.0% decrease the previous week. Demand was weak in North China, Northeast China, and East China, and the implementation of price increases was poor. In Central South China, demand was limited due to capital and project completion [17]. - New house sales decreased marginally. From October 17th to 23rd, the transaction area of new houses in 30 cities was 203.8 million square meters, a 4.8% decrease week-on-week and a 20% decrease year-on-year, with a slight narrowing compared to the previous week [3][20]. - Second-hand house sales continued to decline year-on-year. From last Friday to this Thursday, second-hand house sales decreased by 1.4% week-on-week and 11.7% year-on-year, with a slower decline rate than in previous years, indicating better resilience [3][20]. Consumption: Passenger Car Retail Sales Remained Negative in Mid-October - Passenger car retail sales remained negative. From October 1st to 19th, passenger car retail sales decreased by 6% year-on-year and increased by 7% month-on-month. The weak start of the car market in October was affected by the increase in holidays and the overdraft of demand after the quarterly sprint in September [21]. - Crude oil prices stopped falling and rebounded. As of October 24th, Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil prices increased by 7.6% and 6.9% respectively compared to last Friday. The postponement of the US-Russia meeting, US sanctions on Russian oil companies, and the upcoming China-US negotiations boosted crude oil prices [21].