Core Insights - The cryptocurrency market has achieved a significant breakthrough with Bitcoin's price surpassing $130,000 for the first time, marking a historical high [1] - This price surge is driven by multiple factors, including increased expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, continuous inflow of institutional funds, and supportive cryptocurrency policies from the Trump administration [1][4] - Analysts have raised the short-term target price for Bitcoin to $140,000 following this breakthrough [1] Institutional Investment - The core driver behind Bitcoin's price increase is the sustained inflow of institutional funds, with Bitcoin ETFs accumulating over $85 billion since their launch, and a net inflow of $2.87 billion in the last 30 days [2] - Major Bitcoin ETFs, such as BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) and Fidelity's Bitcoin ETF (FBTC), have seen their asset sizes exceed $32 billion and $21 billion respectively, indicating strong institutional interest in digital assets [2] - On-chain data shows that large addresses holding over 1,000 Bitcoins have increased their holdings by over 35,000 Bitcoins in the past two weeks, reflecting accelerated entry of large funds into the market [2] Macroeconomic Environment - The macroeconomic environment supports Bitcoin's price rise, with the U.S. July PCE price index showing a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, below market expectations, which enhances the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut [4] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September has risen to 96%, historically beneficial for risk assets like Bitcoin [4] - A weakening U.S. dollar index, which has declined for three consecutive weeks, provides additional support for Bitcoin [4] Technical Analysis - Technical analysts believe Bitcoin's price is likely to continue rising, with a strong upward channel formed and short-term target prices set between $135,000 and $140,000 [5] - The relative strength index (RSI) indicates overbought conditions, but in a strong bull market, such conditions can persist for extended periods [5] - Market sentiment indicators show a fear and greed index at 88, indicating "extreme greed," which can remain high during the later stages of a bull market [5] Regulatory Environment - The global regulatory landscape is becoming clearer, with the U.S. approving Bitcoin ETFs and other financial centers like the EU, Singapore, and Hong Kong implementing cryptocurrency-friendly policies [7] - The EU's MiCA regulation provides a clear legal framework for crypto assets, while Singapore's financial authority has classified Bitcoin as a mainstream financial asset [7] - This regulatory clarity reduces policy uncertainty and boosts market confidence [7] Market Participation - Following Bitcoin's price breakthrough, market participation has reached new highs, with the number of active cryptocurrency wallet addresses exceeding 85 million, an 18% increase from the previous month [9] - The number of new wallet addresses has increased by 220,000 in the past 24 hours, indicating a significant influx of new users into the market [9] - Retail investor participation has notably increased, with small transactions between $1,000 and $10,000 rising by 92% [9] Future Outlook - Bitcoin's price is expected to continue rising after surpassing $130,000, with potential short-term fluctuations between $130,000 and $140,000 as it seeks a new equilibrium [10] - As the Federal Reserve's rate cut approaches, liquidity conditions are likely to improve, providing additional support for Bitcoin [10] - Long-term factors such as the halving effect, increased institutional adoption, and ongoing supply constraints are expected to sustain Bitcoin's strong price performance [10]

Current Price Trends - Bitcoin is currently trading around $106,788, experiencing a slight decline of approximately 1.53% over the past 24 hours, with a trading range of $105,700 to $107,300 [6] - Ethereum has shown stronger performance, recently breaking the $2,700 resistance level, currently priced at approximately $2,641, up 0.98% [17][18] Technical Analysis - Bitcoin is in a corrective phase, forming three consecutive bearish candles but remains above the 20-day moving average at around $102,500, indicating a medium-term upward trend [2] - Ethereum is in an upward channel, having successfully tested the $2,700 resistance level, with potential for further upward movement if this level is breached [18] Key Levels - For Bitcoin, resistance levels are at $107,500, $110,000, and $112,000, while support levels are at $105,700, $102,500, and $100,000 [7] - For Ethereum, key resistance levels are at $2,700, $2,730, and $2,800, with support at $2,600 and $2,550 [25] Market Catalysts - Bitcoin's monthly options expiration on May 31 is approaching, with open interest reaching a historical high of $23.5 billion, indicating potential for increased volatility [7] - Ethereum has seen consistent inflows into its ETFs, with a total net inflow of approximately $84.89 million on May 28, reflecting strong institutional interest [25] On-Chain Data - Bitcoin's network activity remains high, with daily active addresses above 900,000, despite a slight decrease of about 2% from the previous week [7] - Ethereum's network activity has also increased, with active addresses rising to 925,000 and daily transaction counts exceeding 1.5 million [25] Market Sentiment - The funding rate for Bitcoin perpetual contracts is stable at 0.01%-0.02%, indicating a healthy bullish sentiment without overheating [8] - Ethereum's funding rate has increased from 0.025% to 0.032%, suggesting growing bullish sentiment in the market [22] Trading Strategies - A cautious approach is recommended ahead of the May 31 options expiration, with suggestions to maintain light positions or observe market movements [9] - For Ethereum, if the price stabilizes above $2,700 post-expiration, a gradual accumulation strategy is advised, with specific entry points and stop-loss levels outlined [26][28]

Core Insights - The U.S. ETF market is experiencing a divergence, with investors shifting from gold to Bitcoin as a "digital alternative" [1] - Over the past five weeks, Bitcoin ETFs have attracted over $9 billion, while gold ETFs have seen outflows exceeding $2.8 billion [1] Group 1 - Bitcoin ETFs have seen significant inflows, with the BlackRock iShares Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) attracting the most capital [1] - In contrast, gold ETFs are facing substantial outflows, indicating a shift in investor preference [1] - The trend suggests a growing acceptance and demand for Bitcoin as an investment vehicle compared to traditional assets like gold [1]