尽管近期比特币遭遇持续抛售，面临新一轮市场寒冬，但支撑加密货币市场的底层基础设施没有崩塌， 这为多头投资者提供了信心支撑。 回顾2022年的行业寒冬，加密货币基础设施随着价格暴跌而土崩瓦解，FTX，Celsius，BlockFi 以及 Three Arrows 等知名机构如同多米诺骨牌般接连倒下。然而在本次抛售潮中，此类系统性崩溃并未发 生。市场机制的重大改善不仅保障了交易与托管的顺畅，也促使过去一年来长期持有者的购买力实现了 增长。此外，Circle 发布的强劲盈利报告也进一步印证了底层制度框架依然屹立不倒。 除了机构买家与对冲基金的持续坚守，比特币底层的供需结构也正在发生实质性变化。据彭博报道，比 特币ETF资产在价格下跌期间仍被投资者稳健持有，同时比特币的自由交易供应量已经出现减少。 这一结构性变化改变了潜在复苏的物理机制：如果市场情绪发生转变，买盘压力将通过比以往更窄的渠 道进行传递，这种收缩的供应端有望为市场反弹产生更大的力量。 风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定 ...

他在一份报告中写道，这种模式"清晰表明这一投资者群体正在巩固持仓而非恐慌离场"，并补充道，前 25大比特币ETF持有者中有17家在第四季度增加了头寸。 自去年10月触及高点以来，比特币价格已近腰斩。无论从哪个角度看，本轮抛售都是FTX崩盘以来最惨 烈的一次。然而，在这场浩劫之中，却藏着一个耐人寻味的谜题：牛市期间围绕比特币搭建的机构化体 系，并未随价格一同崩塌。 比特币ETF资金大体坚守，华尔街仍未离场。尽管部分策略性投资者选择离场，但长期持有者的持仓意 愿却异常坚定。这种价格下跌与市场韧性之间的背离，催生了一种被抛售潮掩盖的逆向看涨逻辑。 看空逻辑无需赘述。即便周三出现反弹，比特币仍在7万美元下方徘徊，远低于去年10月12.6万美元的 高点，市值蒸发1万亿美元。全网近45%的比特币持仓处于浮亏状态，期权交易者纷纷买入对冲暴跌风 险的合约。关于机构入场能缓冲下跌的信心已荡然无存，连续数周的ETF资金外流更让市场普遍认为： 比特币的主流化进程正在失灵。 但逆向投资者认为，这些外流数据需要放在更大的背景下解读。Blockforce Capital的Brett Munster指 出，自2024年1月推出以来，现货比 ...

2月23日，根据最新的行业分析模型显示，比特币当前的市场表现与 2022 年底的熊市筑底阶段高度契 合。NCE 平台认为，尽管本月初的剧烈抛售令投资者信心受挫，但这种从恐慌向沉寂的转变，正是市 场进入熊市后期、清洗投机浮筹的典型特征。对于志在长远的投资者而言，这不仅是一次风险的释放， 更是对比特币核心价值进行重新评估的关键节点。 针对近期的市场流动性与数据表现，交易活跃度的骤降成为了一项重要指标。NCE 平台表示，目前现 货成交量已出现 59% 的大幅环比收缩，同时永续合约持仓量触及四个月来的低点，资金费率的全面转 负暗示了市场空头情绪的集中释放。NCE 平台观察到，这种"投机真空"状态往往出现在大级别底部的 磨合期，随着投机性过剩被彻底清洗，市场的支撑力正在 60000 美元至 75000 美元的宽幅区间内逐步构 建。 2月23日，根据最新的行业分析模型显示，比特币当前的市场表现与 2022 年底的熊市筑底阶段高度契 合。NCE 平台认为，尽管本月初的剧烈抛售令投资者信心受挫，但这种从恐慌向沉寂的转变，正是市 场进入熊市后期、清洗投机浮筹的典型特征。对于志在长远的投资者而言，这不仅是一次风险的释放， 更是对 ...

亚洲交易周伊始，比特币在关税不确定性再度升温的背景下应声下挫。该加密货币早盘一度跌至64338 美元低位，以太坊和瑞波币也同步下跌。 XS.com分析师Linh Tran指出，比特币最新跌势反映风险资产市场重现谨慎情绪。法院否决特朗普总统 关税措施及政府随后宣布新全球关税的方案，已显著加剧全球贸易不确定性。 责任编辑：王许宁 另一关键因素是比特币ETF资金流入明显减弱，这直接影响市场需求并削弱近期对可持续牛市周期的预 期。 根据LSEG数据，比特币现跌3.4%报65351美元。 上个马年沪指涨近60%！新年新福利来了，炒股排面要拉满，新号启幸运>> 亚洲交易周伊始，比特币在关税不确定性再度升温的背景下应声下挫。该加密货币早盘一度跌至64338 美元低位，以太坊和瑞波币也同步下跌。 XS.com分析师Linh Tran指出，比特币最新跌势反映风险资产市场重现谨慎情绪。法院否决特朗普总统 关税措施及政府随后宣布新全球关税的方案，已显著加剧全球贸易不确定性。 该分析师表示，对比特币而言，政策不确定性常引发短期"避险"情绪，促使投资者优先选择现金和债券 而非高波动性资产。 该分析师表示，对比特币而言，政策不确定性常引 ...

Group 1 - Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong stated that Coinbase holds over 80% of the Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF assets in the U.S. [1] - In 2025, Coinbase is projected to record a peak net inflow of ETF funds amounting to $31 billion [1] - Coinbase serves as a custody partner for several large financial institutions and government ETF products, emphasizing its commitment to security through ongoing penetration testing by top cryptography experts [1]

Group 1 - Avenir Group disclosed its latest Bitcoin ETF holdings, maintaining its position as the largest institutional holder of Bitcoin ETFs in Asia for seven consecutive quarters since Q2 2024 [1] - As of the end of Q4 2025, Avenir Group's holdings in BlackRock IBIT remain unchanged at 18,287,323 shares, with only a minor adjustment of approximately -0.053% due to trading friction compared to Q3 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF market is experiencing a textbook "V-shaped recovery," with $311.6 million in inflows over the first three trading days of the week, nearly offsetting the previous week's outflow of $318 million, indicating that institutional investors' allocation logic towards digital gold remains intact despite a short-term price correction of 13% [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The rapid reversal of fund flows not only alleviates short-term technical selling pressure but also signals strong institutional confidence in Bitcoin [1][3]. - Goldman Sachs reduced its holdings in BlackRock's IBIT by approximately 39%, which Decode interprets as a portfolio rebalancing rather than a bearish market stance [1][3]. - Concurrently, Goldman Sachs invested $152 million and $104 million in XRP and Solana ETFs, respectively, indicating a shift in focus from single asset risk exposure to a more diversified blockchain ecosystem [1][3]. Group 2: ETF Market Health - The health of the ETF market is measured by holder retention rates rather than daily price fluctuations, with only about 6% redemption rates despite Bitcoin dipping below $68,000, showcasing high risk tolerance and strategic consistency among ETF holders [2][4]. - The inflow of funds into Ethereum, Solana, and XRP ETFs further confirms a rebound in market risk appetite [2][4]. - The recent fund inflow is seen as a significant milestone in market maturation, with institutional investors demonstrating a "buying the dip" strategy even amid price declines [2][4].

Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market is experiencing renewed downward pressure, particularly on Ethereum and Bitcoin, as bearish sentiment continues to dominate following significant sell-offs in October [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - Ethereum has seen a decline of over 6%, dropping to $1,994, with a current trading price around $2,014 [1][4]. - Bitcoin experienced a drop of 2.4%, reaching $68,666, after fluctuating around the $70,000 mark over the weekend [5]. - Bitcoin has retraced all gains made since the end of 2024, marking the longest monthly losing streak since 2018 [5]. Group 2: Market Sentiment - The market's risk appetite for these two major cryptocurrencies remains low, with bearish signals affecting the Bitcoin derivatives market [7]. - The funding rate for Bitcoin perpetual contracts remains negative, indicating that traders are positioning for further price declines [7]. - The recent sell-off has been driven by macro-level risk aversion and a general downturn across the cryptocurrency market [7]. Group 3: Fund Flows - Since the significant drop in early October, both Ethereum and Bitcoin ETFs have seen billions in net outflows, with Ethereum ETFs experiencing $3.2 billion in withdrawals, including $462 million this year [3][7]. - Bitcoin ETFs have seen outflows of $7.9 billion, with $1.8 billion withdrawn this year [3][7].

Core Insights - The cryptocurrency market is showing clear signs of stabilizing institutional demand, with a net inflow of $371 million recorded last Friday and an additional $145 million on Monday, indicating a recovery in the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF [1][3] - Despite a total redemption amount of approximately $1.9 billion this year, the sharp decline in outflow speed is seen as a turning point in market sentiment, suggesting that institutional allocation is regaining control after weeks of selling pressure [1][3] Market Participant Analysis - Early holders remain steadfast, with their belief unshaken by institutional involvement. The recent price pullback is characterized as one of the mildest adjustments in Bitcoin's history, without significant systemic collapse in the industry [1][3] - Early holders are employing a tiered profit-taking strategy rather than panic selling, with many having initial costs in the thousands of dollars, allowing them to cash out millions while maintaining solid positions [1][3] Altcoin Performance - Alongside strong performance in mainstream assets, altcoin ETFs are also showing signs of recovery, with Ethereum (ETH) and XRP attracting inflows of $57 million and $6.3 million, respectively [2][4] - This broad-based rebound reflects a growing investor recognition of the overall scarcity narrative of crypto assets, as the influence of large asset management firms expands [2][4] Market Outlook - The combination of slowing inflows and early holders' reluctance to sell is supporting the current recovery in the digital asset market. It is anticipated that Bitcoin ETFs may initiate a new round of valuation recovery at the current $70,000 level [2][4] - Future volatility will largely depend on changes in macro liquidity, but the existing consensus among funds has significantly enhanced the market's risk resilience [2][4]

Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market, particularly Bitcoin and Ethereum, is experiencing significant downward pressure due to bearish sentiment, with Bitcoin recently losing all gains since the end of 2024 following the U.S. presidential election [1][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - Bitcoin has dropped over 1% to $69,160, with a daily low of $68,666, while Ethereum has fallen over 4% to $2,018, hitting a low of $1,997 [1]. - Bitcoin is undergoing its longest monthly decline since 2018, despite expectations of a favorable regulatory environment under the new U.S. government [1][6]. - Ethereum has seen a larger decline than Bitcoin since a significant drop last October, remaining in a bearish structure after breaking below the $2,800 to $3,000 range [4]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Trading Behavior - The derivatives market for Bitcoin is showing bearish signals, with perpetual contract funding rates remaining below zero, indicating traders are positioning for further price declines [4]. - Open interest in Bitcoin perpetual contracts has decreased by approximately 51% from its peak in October, reflecting a lack of confidence in the recent price rebound [5]. - The implied volatility for Bitcoin has dropped from around 83% to approximately 60%, suggesting reduced expectations for short-term price fluctuations [5]. Group 3: Fund Flows and Investor Behavior - Significant capital outflows have been observed from both Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, with $7.9 billion withdrawn from Bitcoin ETFs and $3.2 billion from Ethereum ETFs since last October [6]. - Analysts are warning that Bitcoin may have entered a bear market, with some predicting a "death spiral" scenario that could lead to widespread liquidation in the crypto ecosystem [6][7]. - Despite the prevailing pessimism, some analysts maintain a bullish outlook, predicting Bitcoin could reach $150,000 by year-end, viewing current price movements as a confidence crisis rather than a fundamental issue [7].