Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Zoomlion with a target price of RMB 12.0 for A-shares and HKD 9.2 for H-shares, based on a projected P/E ratio of 18.6 for 2026 and a 30% discount for H-shares [1]. Core Insights - Zoomlion is expected to achieve a net profit growth of 36% year-on-year in 2025, reaching RMB 4.8 billion, which is 2% higher than expectations and aligns with Bloomberg's consensus [1]. - The fourth quarter of 2025 is projected to see a significant increase in overseas revenue, soaring by 60% to RMB 9.2 billion, contributing approximately 62% to total revenue [1]. - The company plans to distribute a total dividend of RMB 0.4 per share for the year, resulting in a payout ratio of 72% [1]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2025 is forecasted to be RMB 52.1 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 14.6% from RMB 45.5 billion in 2024 [2][3]. - Gross profit is expected to rise to RMB 14.6 billion in 2025, a 14.1% increase compared to RMB 12.8 billion in 2024 [2]. - The EBIT (Earnings Before Interest and Taxes) is projected to grow by 34.3% to RMB 5.8 billion in 2025 [2]. - Net profit is anticipated to reach RMB 4.8 billion in 2025, marking a 35.7% increase from RMB 3.5 billion in 2024 [2][3]. Revenue Breakdown - The construction machinery segment is expected to generate RMB 48.1 billion in 2025, up 19.2% from RMB 40.4 billion in 2024 [5]. - Concrete machinery equipment revenue is projected to increase by 25.5% to RMB 10.1 billion, while earth-moving machinery is expected to grow by 45% to RMB 9.7 billion [5]. - Agricultural machinery revenue is forecasted to decline by 23.8% to RMB 3.5 billion [5]. Quarterly Performance - In Q4 2025, overseas revenue is expected to increase by 60% year-on-year, while domestic revenue is projected to grow by 7% [6]. - The total revenue for Q4 2025 is anticipated to be RMB 14.9 billion, reflecting a 35% increase compared to the same quarter in 2024 [6].

Core Viewpoint - SANY Heavy Industry Co., Ltd. is undergoing a listing process on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with CITIC Securities as its sole sponsor, and is recognized as the third-largest global and largest Chinese construction machinery company based on cumulative revenue from core products from 2020 to 2024 [1]. Group 1: Company Overview - Founded in 1994, SANY Heavy Industry has transformed from a single product and country operation to a diversified product and global operation leader in the construction machinery industry through internal development, strategic acquisitions, and joint ventures [4]. - The company offers a leading diversified product matrix that meets various operational needs, covering major categories such as excavators, concrete machinery, lifting machinery, piling machinery, and road machinery, as well as rapidly developing products like dump trucks and fire trucks [4]. Group 2: Global Expansion Strategy - As one of the first Chinese construction machinery companies to expand internationally, SANY has prioritized globalization as a key development strategy, successfully exporting products to over 150 countries and regions since 2002 [5]. - By 2024, overseas market revenue is expected to account for 62.3% of total revenue, with a compound annual growth rate of 15.2% in overseas revenue from 2022 to 2024, consistently outperforming the industry average in China [5]. Group 3: Research and Development - SANY has invested significantly in research and development, operating 21 R&D centers globally, with 17 in China and 4 in Germany, Japan, and the United States, and has incurred cumulative R&D expenses of RMB 19.59 billion [6]. - The proportion of R&D expenses to revenue exceeds the average level of global peers in the same industry [6]. Group 4: Financial Performance - SANY Heavy Industry maintains industry-leading revenue scale, profitability, and operational quality, continuously creating value for shareholders [7]. - The company's revenue increased by 18.4% from RMB 24.84 billion for the four months ending April 30, 2024, to RMB 29.43 billion for the four months ending April 30, 2025, with overseas revenue contributing RMB 16.88 billion, accounting for 57.4% of total revenue during this period [7].