该行指出，首先，委内瑞拉原油已重新转向合规贸易渠道，收紧了有效的主流油轮供应，但未有增加全球 运力总量。其次，2月28日霍尔木兹海峡及苏伊士运河周边的紧张局势升级，令运费市场从反映地缘政治"风 险溢价"转向反映实质的"物流中断"。第三，Sinokor现控制逾150艘超大型油轮，相当于全球超大型油轮运 力约20%，结构性地减少现货市场的流动性，并加剧运费率对需求冲击的反应。 基础情境下，摩通对2026财年预测TD3C基准运费均值由每日9万美元上调至11.5万美元，即使成本预测上 调，仍对中远海能2025至27年各年纯利预测上调分别3%、18%及13%。本年至今中远海能H股及A股累升114%及 94%，反映合规运力供应收紧及中东地缘风险，但摩通认为其盈利可持续性及运力整合影响仍未完全浮现。 摩根大通以"黑天鹅叠加"为题发布研报称，对中远海能(20.9,0.40,1.95%)(600026.SH)A股评级由"中 性"上调至"增持"，维持中远海能(01138)H股"增持"评级，并修改估值方法，由市账率改为市盈率，以H 股及A股今年目标市盈率15倍及21倍计，H股目标价由12港元倍升至24港元，A股目标价由13元人民币 ...

2月25日，航运板块反复走强，招商轮船4天3板，续创历史新高。中远海能、招商南油、中远海发也纷 纷涨停。消息面上，周二的最新数据显示，租用一艘超大型油轮将中东原油运到中国的价格，已经飙升 突破每日17万美元，较年初翻了3倍。业内人士指出，除了众所周知的美伊对峙外，全球原油的供应趋 势变化，以及韩国航运公司大举订船等因素均对价格飙升形成助力 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Transport of China has announced the implementation of port service fees for American vessels starting from October 14, in response to the U.S. imposing port fees on Chinese ships. This move is expected to create upward pressure on freight rates, particularly for very large crude carriers (VLCCs) [1]. Shipping Industry Impact - Goldman Sachs anticipates that the effective capacity in the shipping industry may experience temporary disruptions, which could lead to increased freight rates, especially for VLCCs [1]. - Existing supply shortages, enhanced U.S. sanctions on shadow fleets raising the demand for compliant tankers, and China's crude oil stockpiling are contributing factors that are driving up VLCC freight rates [1]. Company Beneficiaries - China Merchants Energy Shipping Company (COSCO) is expected to be a major beneficiary due to its significant exposure to VLCCs [1].