Core Viewpoint - The shipping sector in A-shares has experienced significant volatility due to conflicts in the Middle East, impacting various shipping companies and their operations [3][9]. Group 1: Market Impact - On March 5, the shipping sector opened lower, with companies like China Merchants Energy (601975.SH) and Jinjiang Shipping (601083.SH) seeing declines, leading to a 2.77% drop in the China Securities Shipping Index by the end of the day [3]. - The ongoing conflict has led to the suspension of new bookings for several shipping routes to the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait by China COSCO Shipping Group, indicating a direct impact on their operations [3][6]. - A shipping industry expert noted that all routes to the Middle East are currently suspended, with some vessels turning back, and the industry is in a wait-and-see mode regarding the resumption of services [4]. Group 2: Company Responses - China COSCO Shipping's subsidiaries reported that their operations remain normal, but the financial impact of the route suspensions is still uncertain [6][7]. - China Merchants Energy acknowledged the significant impact of the blockade on global energy transport but stated that their operations are currently unaffected [6]. - Other companies like China Merchants Jinling and Shenghang Co. indicated that their operations are stable, with limited direct exposure to the Middle East routes, although they are monitoring the situation closely [8]. Group 3: Market Trends and Predictions - The shipping sector has seen dramatic fluctuations, with the container shipping index experiencing a surge followed by a sharp decline due to geopolitical tensions [10][11]. - Analysts suggest that the recent rise in shipping prices is driven by a combination of geopolitical events and seasonal demand patterns, with the potential for continued price increases if the conflict persists [11][12]. - The VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) market is expected to see strong demand and high freight rates due to the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, with projections indicating that 2026 freight rates will be significantly higher than in 2025 [12].

Group 1 - The shipping and port stocks in the Hong Kong market have strengthened, with notable increases in shares of companies such as Honghai Holdings Group rising by 21% and COSCO Shipping Holdings increasing by over 4% [1] - Following attacks by the US and Israel on Iran, Tehran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, leading to significant disruptions in global maritime energy transportation [1] - Several oil tanker companies and international oil giants have suspended the transportation of crude oil, fuel, and liquefied natural gas (LNG) through the Strait of Hormuz due to the escalating conflict with Iran [1] Group 2 - The daily charter rates for LNG carriers in the Atlantic Basin have reportedly exceeded $200,000, which is approximately double the rates from the previous day [1] - Qatar has halted LNG production as the conflict with Iran spreads to a broader region, resulting in a sharp increase in shipping rates [1] - Current quotes for LNG transportation are at least three times higher than the $61,500 assessed by Sparq Commodities earlier on Monday, although no transactions have been completed at these new rates [1]

Core Viewpoint - The shipping sector is experiencing a significant surge, with companies like China Merchants Energy Shipping and COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation reaching historical highs due to skyrocketing oil transportation costs [1] Group 1: Shipping Sector Performance - China Merchants Energy Shipping has achieved a remarkable performance with three consecutive trading limits in four days, setting a new historical high [1] - Other companies in the sector, such as COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation and China Merchants South China Shipping, also reached their trading limits [1] Group 2: Oil Transportation Costs - The cost of chartering a very large crude carrier (VLCC) to transport Middle Eastern crude oil to China has surged to over $170,000 per day, which is three times higher than at the beginning of the year [1] - This increase in transportation costs is attributed to various factors, including the ongoing US-Iran tensions and changes in global oil supply trends [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In December, the contract trading focuses on the rhythm. Shipping companies will adjust supply to keep freight rates high for next - year's long - term agreement negotiations. Attention should be paid to the implementation of price - holding in December. The 12 - month contract is expected to trade price - increase expectations and actual implementation alternately until delivery. The bottom support of the 12 - month contract is rising [4]. - The February 2026 contract may have a large expected difference but is currently suppressed by the resumption - of - navigation expectation. The delivery and settlement price of the EC2602 contract basically reflects the spot price center at the end of January 2026. Whether the shipping companies' price - holding time will be postponed is uncertain. Continuous tracking is needed [5][6]. - The strategy suggests that the 12 - month contract will fluctuate, and the 2 - month contract will fluctuate strongly, and there is no arbitrage strategy for now [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Analysis - Online quotes: Different alliances and shipping companies have different price quotes and increases from November to December. For example, Gemini Cooperation's Maersk Shanghai - Rotterdam price increased from week 48 to December; HPL - SPOT's price also rose significantly from the second half of November to December. MSC + Premier Alliance and Ocean Alliance also had similar price - increase trends [1][2]. - Geopolitical situation: Israeli military air - raids in Gaza and Lebanon have caused casualties and tensions, which may impact the shipping market [2]. 3.2 Dynamic Supply - In November, the remaining 3 - week average weekly capacity was 275,800 TEU, and in December, the monthly average weekly capacity was 313,000 TEU. There were 10 blank sailings and 1 TBN in November and 4 TBNs and 1 blank sailing in December, with different distributions among alliances [3]. 3.3 12 - Month Contract - The trading rhythm of the 12 - month contract involves trading price - increase expectations and actual implementation alternately. The price center in the second half of November was around $2,100 - 2,200/FEU, and shipping companies have issued price - increase letters for December. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation of the price increase in the first half of December and whether there will be another price - increase announcement in the second half of December [4]. 3.4 2026 February Contract - The last trading day of the EC2602 contract is February 9, 2026, and the delivery and settlement price is the arithmetic average of the prices on January 26, February 2, and February 9, 2026. Due to the Spring Festival holiday, it basically reflects the spot price center at the end of January. Whether the shipping companies' price - holding time will be postponed is uncertain, and follow - up attention should be paid to price - increase announcements in late November and mid - December [5][6]. 3.5 Futures and Spot Prices - As of November 19, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index (European line) futures was 71,070 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 23,971 lots. The closing prices of different contracts varied. The SCFI prices of different routes were also provided, such as the Shanghai - Europe route price of $1,417/TEU on November 14 [6]. 3.6 Container Ship Delivery - 2025 is a big year for container ship delivery. As of November 9, 2025, 226 container ships with a total capacity of 1.879 million TEU have been delivered, including 71 ships of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU with a total capacity of 1.072 million TEU and 12 ships of over 17,000 TEU with a total capacity of 253,800 TEU [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The 12 - contract is expected to be volatile and bullish, and there is no arbitrage strategy currently [9] Core View - The shipping market is affected by multiple factors such as geopolitics, supply - demand relationship, and contract price trends. Pay attention to the actual implementation of price increase letters in November and December, and the price adjustment of 10 - month contracts. The 12 - month contract focuses on the rhythm of price increase, and the 2026 February contract may have a large expected difference [1][7] Summary by Directory 1. Futures Price - As of October 16, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index European line futures was 61,878 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 38,960 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts were 1429.20, 1119.90, 1281.20, 1410.80, 1100.90, and 1651.10 respectively [8] 2. Spot Price - Different shipping alliances have different price quotes for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route. For example, in the Gemini Cooperation, Maersk's 43 - week quote for Shanghai - Rotterdam was 1100/1840, and the 44 - week quote was 1194/2010; HPL's price in the second half of October was 1185/1935, and the price in the first half of November was 1535/2535, with a quote of 1735/2835 for the second - half - month shipping schedule in November. Many shipping companies have issued price increase letters [1] 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - From October to December 2025, the average weekly capacity from China to European base ports showed different trends. In October, the average weekly capacity in the remaining three weeks was 276,100 TEU. In November, the monthly average weekly capacity was 302,800 TEU, and in December, it was 287,700 TEU. There were 4 blank sailings and 3 TBNs in November, and 7 TBNs in December [3] 4. Supply Chain - There are geopolitical factors affecting the supply chain. For example, Israeli officials denied the start of the second - stage negotiations on the Gaza cease - fire, and the Houthi armed forces confirmed the death of their armed forces chief of staff. Also, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce imposed sanctions on 5 US - related subsidiaries of Hanwha Ocean Co., Ltd., and it is not yet known whether it will affect HMM's operations [3][4] 5. Demand and European Economy - The report does not provide direct information on demand and the European economy, but the shipping market is closely related to European economic conditions. The shipping companies' price adjustment strategies are related to the expected demand and economic situation in the future, such as preparing for the next - year long - term contract negotiations [7]